Try the model
TOL

Toledo 7 at Central Michigan 49

CMU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 12:12 · Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Alonzo McCoy
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 55Home team on offense+10.9Pregame prior+21.9Score differential+7.8Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:59: Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +3.0 pts (now 84%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 12:12: Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +6.1 pts (now 91%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:33: Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 2:48: Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +5.1 pts (now 8%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:14: Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +3.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00TOL 4th & 7 at CMU 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:01TOL 4th & 14 at CMU 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    16.8%−0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 3:59TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.6
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:12TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 49, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    8.8%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:55TOL 4th & 3 at CMU 37, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    1.3%−1.3
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.9%−1.6
    average punt
  6. Q3 10:30TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 30, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.6%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.7%
    average punt
  7. Q3 9:30CMU 4th & 1 at CMU 34, up 35
    Close callPunted · 99.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.4%−0.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 5:45TOL 4th & 5 at CMU 37, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.4%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%−0.1
    40% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 15:00CMU 4th & 4 at TOL 5, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.5
    average punt
  10. Q4 12:16TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 7, down 35
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:21TOL 4th & 6 at CMU 45, down 42
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.0%−<0.1
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:23CMU 4th & 10 at CMU 11, up 42
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 100.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:01CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 3:59CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:12CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 6:33CMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 2:48TOL Touchdown, down 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    5.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:14CMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 10:30CMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 6:21CMU Touchdown, up 41 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1PUNT
12 plays · 42 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
80.1%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
+13
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 13 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
80.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+10
80.1%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+4
80.1%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 41
0
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+9
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+2
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+1
80.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 47
0
80.1%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 47
0
80.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4679% → 81%
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
79.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+15
79.0%
DORMADY, Q. pass incomplete to POLJAN, Tony, PENALTY TOLEDO illegal use of hands (HINES,Jamal) 15 yards to the CMU41, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:47
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+7
79.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 7 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 10:47
2ND & 3
OWN 48
+4
79.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+48
80.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 48 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
80.0%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 11
OWN 25
+13
80.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 13 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+21
79.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 21 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+2
79.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 8
OPP 39
0
79.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 8
OPP 39
-6
79.6%
Carter Bradley sacked by Robi Stuart for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 9:01
4TH & 14
OPP 45
0
80.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 41 yds, downed at the CMich 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
7 plays · 96 yds · 1:4680% → 84%
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+32
79.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 17 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+13
80.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 13 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
80.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:45
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+18
80.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the CENTMICH 48 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Nate Bauer) to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+32
80.6%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 32 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
80.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
83.6%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0018% → 17%
Q1 3:59
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-3
82.3%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 18Similar
Q1 3:59
2ND & 13
OWN 18
+4
82.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the Toled 22Similar
Q1 3:59
3RD & 9
OWN 22
0
82.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q1 3:59
4TH & 9
OWN 22
0
82.6%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0683% → 91%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
83.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 11 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
83.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q1 2:18
2ND & 2
OPP 46
0
83.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q1 2:18
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+8
83.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
83.9%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+19
84.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 19 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-10
84.5%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for 2 yards to the TOLEDO16 (ROBINSON,Kahlil;ANDERSON,Tycen), PENALTY CMU holding (SMITH, Derek) 10 yards to the TOLEDO28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OPP 28
+2
84.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 26
+8
84.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 18
+5
84.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q2 12:17
4TH & 5
OPP 13
+5
84.5%
TICE, Ryan field goal attempt from 31 GOOD, clock 12:17, PENALTY TOLEDO offside (McDONALD,Chris) 5 yards to the TOLEDO8, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
90.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7DOWNS
6 plays · 19 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+13
89.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 13 yds to the Toled 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-2
89.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 12:12
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+1
89.9%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 12:12
3RD & 11
OWN 42
+7
90.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 7 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q2 12:12
4TH & 4
OWN 49
0
89.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Alonzo McCoySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
7 plays · 49 yds · 3:1492% → 97%
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
92.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+2
92.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 9:47
3RD & 1
OPP 40
+4
92.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+21
92.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 21 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:47
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
92.3%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 9:47
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+13
92.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 13 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
96.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
13 plays · 68 yds · 3:453% → 8%
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+8
97.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 6:33
2ND & 2
OWN 40
+16
96.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 16 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:33
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+4
96.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 4 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 6
OPP 40
+3
97.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q2 4:55
3RD & 3
OPP 37
0
97.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 4:55
4TH & 3
OPP 37
+3
97.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 3 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
97.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 4:55
2ND & 10
OPP 34
+16
97.4%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 16 yds to the CMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+11
97.3%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+4
97.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (4 Yards) to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
92.4%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
10 plays · 81 yds · 2:3495% → 99%
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-5
94.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 15
OWN 14
+27
94.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 27 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+18
94.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 18 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
94.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 2:48
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+38
94.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 38 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
94.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 2:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
94.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 2Similar
Q2 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
98.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
98.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3099% → 99%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
98.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+12
98.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
98.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+1
98.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+10
98.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 10 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
98.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 28 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (JaCorey Sullivan) to the Toled 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+10
98.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 10 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+3
98.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 6
OPP 9
+9
99.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-2
99.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 12
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 12
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q3 10:30
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
99.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 50 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 30 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, IB (JaCorey Sullivan) to the CMich 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14PUNT
7 plays · 24 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+8
99.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 2
OWN 18
0
99.4%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 18Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 2
OWN 18
+7
99.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
99.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 9:30
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
99.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
99.4%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 4 yds to the CMich 34Similar
Q3 9:30
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
99.3%
Brady Buell punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 27 , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for no gain to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
99.6%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the Toled 28 Dequan Finn fumbled, forced by Kyron McKinnie-Harper, recovered by Toled Cameron BellSimilar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+4
99.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 5
OWN 32
+10
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
99.6%
Dequan Finn run for 16 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
99.6%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 5:45
2ND & 14
OPP 46
+1
99.6%
Dequan Finn run for 1 yd to the CMich 45 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 5:45
3RD & 13
OPP 45
+8
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 5:45
4TH & 5
OPP 37
0
99.6%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16DOWNS
8 plays · 58 yds · 1:37100% → 100%
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 1:37
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+32
99.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 32 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 31
+20
99.8%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 20 yds to the Toled 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-2
99.8%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 13
+3
99.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 10
+5
99.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 5
0
99.8%
Kaden Keon pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 5
-4
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 12:16
2ND & 14
OWN 1
+4
99.9%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q4 12:16
3RD & 10
OWN 5
+2
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 2 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 12:16
4TH & 8
OWN 7
+37
99.9%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 44 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18TD
10 plays · 44 yds · 4:05100% → 100%
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+16
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 16 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
99.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 4 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-10
99.9%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for loss of 1 yard to the TOLEDO25 (9R), PENALTY CMU holding (DILL, D'Andre) 10 yards to the TOLEDO34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:26
2ND & 16
OPP 34
+3
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 13
OPP 31
-5
99.9%
LAZZARO, Tommy pass complete to POLJAN, Tony for 31 yards to the TOLEDO0, clock 07:50, PENALTY CMU ineligible downfield on pass (SMITH, Derek) 5 yards to the TOLEDO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:50
3RD & 18
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Cameron ColeSimilar
Q4 7:50
4TH & 18
OPP 36
+15
99.9%
TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jalynn Williams) to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-3
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 7:50
2ND & 13
OPP 24
+16
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 16 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 28 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+24
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 24 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:21
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-1
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 1 yard to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 6:21
2ND & 11
50
+10
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 10 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 6:21
3RD & 1
OPP 40
-5
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 6:21
4TH & 6
OPP 45
+6
99.9%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 29 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 6 yds to the CMich 39 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal block (Chuck Jones) to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:13100% → 100%
Q4 3:36
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+4
99.9%
Thaddeus Cornick run for 4 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 6
OWN 15
-2
99.9%
Thaddeus Cornick run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 13Similar
Q4 3:36
3RD & 8
OWN 13
-2
99.9%
Thaddeus Cornick run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 11Similar
Q4 1:23
4TH & 10
OWN 11
+11
100.0%
Brady Buell punt for 47 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 11 yds to the CMich 46 Devin Maddox fumbled, forced by Rolliann Sturkey,Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21Uncategorized
5 plays · 33 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:08
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+15
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 15 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
100.0%
Micah Kelly run for 7 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q4 1:08
2ND & 3
OPP 39
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+11
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 11 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 12:12
Tommy Lazzaro run for 8 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
+6.1
TD · Q2 2:48
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)
-5.1
TD · Q2 6:33
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
+4.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com