2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 11:31 · Derek Adams punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 36 , Line Latu returns for 14 yds to the EMich 36
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 3:39: Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK) — EMU win probability +11.3 pts (now 61%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:09: Dustin Crum run for 4 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +9.7 pts (now 66%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 14:48: Chad Ryland kickoff for 61 yds , Jamal Parker return for 96 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +11.7 pts (now 73%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:16: Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 30 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland PAT BLOCKED) — EMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 38%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 7:58: Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed) — EMU win probability +24.5 pts (now 45%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 10:14EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 60.5% before the snapGo for it60.6%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call60.6%average punt
- Q1 1:17EMU 4th & 7 at KENT 40, down 7Close callPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.3%37% to convertField goal54.7%−0.634% to makePuntTheir call54.9%−0.5average punt
- Q2 15:00KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 32, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.5% before the snapGo for it45.5%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call46.1%average punt
- Q2 9:15EMU 4th & 10 at KENT 14, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snapGo for it50.4%−1.126% to convertField goalTheir call51.5%84% to makePunt45.2%−6.3average punt
- Q2 9:15KENT 4th & 5 at KENT 25, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.9% before the snapGo for it47.7%−0.440% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call48.1%average punt
- Q2 1:06KENT 4th & 8 at EMU 25, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.7% before the snapGo for it43.6%−1.033% to convertField goalTheir call44.6%66% to makePunt39.3%−5.3average punt
- Q3 14:48EMU 4th & 3 at EMU 32, down 17Close callWent for it · 28.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call29.2%−0.252% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt29.4%average punt
- Q3 8:46KENT 4th & 13 at EMU 30, up 11Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.2% before the snapGo for it65.4%−1.920% to convertField goalTheir call67.3%56% to makePunt65.5%−1.8average punt
- Q3 8:46EMU 4th & 2 at midfield, down 11Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call33.8%56% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt32.2%−1.6average punt
- Q3 4:15EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 44, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.9% before the snapGo for it26.6%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call27.6%average punt
- Q4 15:00KENT 4th & 2 at KENT 28, up 11Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 75.8% before the snapGo for it77.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call76.4%−1.2average punt
- Q4 13:23EMU 4th & 8 at EMU 35, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.0% before the snapGo for it19.9%−0.934% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.8%average punt
- Q4 11:31KENT 4th & 4 at KENT 30, up 11Close callPunted · 80.4% before the snapGo for it81.3%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call80.7%−0.6average punt
- Q4 1:27KENT 4th & 7 at EMU 7, up 5Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.2% before the snapGo for it86.3%−0.828% to convertField goalTheir call87.0%91% to makePunt78.1%−8.9average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 4KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
- Q1 12:19EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.6%97% to makeGo for two61.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 10:14KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call39.3%97% to makeGo for two39.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:50KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call42.7%97% to makeGo for two42.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:39EMU Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.6%97% to makeGo for two56.5%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:09KENT Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call59.2%97% to makeGo for two59.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:16EMU Touchdown, down 11 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call37.3%97% to makeGo for two37.2%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 7:58EMU Touchdown, down 5 before the tryClose callWent for two · failedKick32.3%97% to makeGo for twoTheir call32.1%−0.245% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1TD7 plays · 75 yds · 2:4157% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.5%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+7
56.5%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 7 yds to the EMich 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+27
56.5%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 27 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2TD8 plays · 68 yds · 1:5942% → 44%
Q1 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+33
57.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 33 yds to the EMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:13
1ST & 15
OPP 25
+17
57.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Woody Barrett for 8 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Kobie Beltram) to the EMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 10:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
56.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the EMich 31Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
57.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Brian Dooley) to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 10:14
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+1
56.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 1 yd to the EMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4TD12 plays · 84 yds · 3:5343% → 49%
Q1 7:43
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+15
55.6%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah, PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGEE, Freddie) 15 yards to the EMU20, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
55.6%
MATTHEWS, Will rush for loss of 1 yard to the EMU2 (BOGAN, Blake;BELTRAM, Kobie), PENALTY EMU offside (MYRICK, Terry) 0 yards to the EMU1, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT9 plays · 35 yds · 2:3353% → 51%
Q1 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
53.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 20 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6PUNT7 plays · 29 yds · 0:2849% → 49%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-8
49.6%
Dustin Crum sacked by Kevin McGill and Alex Merritt for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 20Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OWN 20
+6
50.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 6 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 32
+50
50.7%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EASTMICH 28 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Offensive holding (Quian Williams) to the EMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7MISSED FG9 plays · 68 yds · 3:1749% → 48%
Q2 12:32
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-5
49.0%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Mike Van Hoeven) to the EMich 13Similar
Q2 12:32
3RD & 15
OWN 13
+19
48.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 19 yds to the EMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+54
49.5%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 54 yds to the EASTMICH 14 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:32
2ND & 7
OPP 11
-3
52.2%
Mike Glass III sacked by Mandela Lawrence-Burke for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0053% → 51%
Q2 9:15
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
48.6%
Derek Adams punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Dylan Drummond at the EMich 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9TD9 plays · 65 yds · 4:2346% → 61%
Q2 8:02
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
47.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:02
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+5
48.7%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 5 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 8:02
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+13
48.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 13 yds to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+18
61.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10FG10 plays · 50 yds · 2:3346% → 52%
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
53.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 10 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
53.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 8 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+19
50.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 19 yds to the EMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
49.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Jerodd VinesSimilar
Q2 3:39
2ND & 10
OPP 27
-4
50.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Will Matthews for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 31Similar
Q2 3:39
3RD & 14
OPP 31
+6
52.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 6 yds to the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11INT4 plays · 27 yds · 0:0050% → 54%
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
50.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Shaq Vann for 3 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 1:01
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+24
50.4%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 24 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
53.8%
Mike Glass III pass intercepted Keith Sherald Jr. return for no gain to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12TD5 plays · 70 yds · 0:3251% → 66%
EMUDrive 13END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15TD10 plays · 75 yds · 2:3227% → 38%
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
26.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 7 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q3 14:48
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+14
29.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 14 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
29.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 4 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 30
+30
38.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 30 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16MISSED FG11 plays · 42 yds · 3:2666% → 69%
Q3 12:12
2ND & 4
OWN 34
+17
33.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 17 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
32.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 3 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q3 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
32.2%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 5 yards to the EMU22, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENTST holding (GREGOIRE, Adam) 10 yards to the EMU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:12
2ND & 20
OPP 37
0
33.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Dustin Crum for no gain to the EMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
KENTDrive 18FUMBLE8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
50
0
25.9%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Freddie McGee IIISimilar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 10
50
+11
26.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 11 yds to the EMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
25.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q3 6:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-5
25.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Terry Myrick for a loss of 5 yards to the EMich 34Similar
Q3 6:28
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+9
26.3%
Dustin Crum run for 9 yds to the EMich 22 Dustin Crum fumbled, forced by Shawn Simeon, recovered by EMich Blake Bogan KENT ST Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19PUNT11 plays · 22 yds · 0:0026% → 25%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
26.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 4 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 6
OWN 0
0
25.4%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to DRUMMOND, Dylan, PENALTY EMU face mask off-setting, PENALTY KENTST personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 10
OWN 32
+10
24.9%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to LATU, Line, PENALTY KENTST holding (NUNEZ, Mario) 10 yards to the EMU42, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
27.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 5 yds to the EMich 47Similar
Q3 4:15
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+3
28.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:15
3RD & 2
50
-4
28.4%
Hassan Beydoun run for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 44 Hassan Beydoun fumbled, recovered by EMich Mike Glass IIISimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:1377% → 77%
EMUDrive 21PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
KENTDrive 22PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q4 11:31
4TH & 4
OWN 30
+14
18.3%
Derek Adams punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the EMich 36 , Line Latu returns for 14 yds to the EMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 23TD6 plays · 64 yds · 1:4416% → 45%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
16.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 5 yds to the EMich 41Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+11
17.1%
GLASS, Mike pass intercepted by HINES, Elvis at the KENTST49, HINES, Elvis return to the KENTST49 (LATU, Line), PENALTY KENTST pass interference (HINES, Elvis) 11 yards to the KENTST48, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
18.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 15 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 1
OPP 24
+18
20.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:58
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
44.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24FG20 plays · 69 yds · 6:2672% → 96%
Q4 7:53
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+1
24.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 1 yd Kavious Price fumbled, forced by Blake Bogan, recovered by KntSt Mike CarriganSimilar
Q4 4:34
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+14
17.3%
CRUM, Dustin sacked for loss of 5 yards to the EMU47 (SIMEON, Shawn), PENALTY EMU personal foul (SIMEON, Shawn) 14 yards to the EMU28, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 25INT6 plays · 51 yds · 0:175% → 9%
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
4.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 23 yds to the EMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+24
5.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 24 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
8.9%
GLASS, Mike pass complete to VANN, Shaq for 21 yards to the KENTST7, out-of-bounds (PRICE, Jabbar), PENALTY EMU IR (DAUGHERTY, Eddie) 5 yards to the KENTST33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 24
0
8.5%
Mike Glass III pass intercepted Keith Sherald Jr. return for no gain to the KntSt 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:58
Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)
+24.5
TD · Q3 14:48
Chad Ryland kickoff for 61 yds , Jamal Parker return for 96 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-11.7
TD · Q2 3:39
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 18 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)
+11.3