Try the model
WMU

Western Michigan 14 at Northern Illinois 17

NIU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 26, 2019 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 10:41 · Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 32
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialBlowout margin
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 95Pregame prior−11.7Home team on offense+2.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.2Score differential+0.6Blowout margin+0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:15: Marcus Childers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 71 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +12.0 pts (now 55%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 12:54: LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +10.0 pts (now 58%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 7:47: Michael Love pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +17.1 pts (now 89%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 6:25: LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +26.4 pts (now 43%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 3:13: Rondarius Gregory run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28 — NIU win probability +9.6 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10WMU made the numbers' call on 11 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 6 at WMU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    26.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    26.7%−0.1
    30% to make
    Punt
    26.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:20WMU 4th & 1 at NIU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    71.4%−0.2
    40% to make
    Punt
    71.4%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:06WMU 4th & 12 at NIU 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 69.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.3
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%
    80% to make
    Punt
    67.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:53WMU 4th & 1 at midfield, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 68.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    68.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    68.0%−0.6
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:25NIU 4th & 2 at WMU 26, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.2%−0.3
    64% to make
    Punt
    32.6%−2.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 36, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:32NIU 4th & 16 at NIU 38, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−1.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:37WMU 4th & 11 at WMU 23, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−1.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 9:02NIU 4th & 15 at NIU 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−1.9
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.0%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:31WMU 4th & 14 at NIU 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.1%−1.6
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.7%
    58% to make
    Punt
    50.0%−4.7
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:53WMU 4th & 3 at NIU 18, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.3%−0.2
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    44.5%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.5%−7.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 12:54NIU 4th & 12 at NIU 23, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.1%−3.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  13. Q3 10:41WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 27, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.8%−2.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 10:12NIU 4th & 1 at WMU 32, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    47.8%−3.6
    51% to make
    Punt
    46.4%−5.0
    average punt
  15. Q3 4:41NIU 4th & 29 at midfield, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.9%−4.2
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:20WMU 4th & 12 at WMU 16, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.0%−3.8
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  17. Q3 2:25NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 31, up 3
    Close callPunted · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.8%−0.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 15:00WMU 4th & 9 at WMU 12, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.4%−3.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.6%
    average punt
  19. Q4 14:40NIU 4th & 19 at NIU 37, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−6.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.0%
    average punt
  20. Q4 12:18WMU 4th & 28 at WMU 2, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.6%−7.6
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.2%
    average punt
  21. Q4 6:25NIU 4th & 14 at NIU 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−10.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%
    average punt
  22. Q4 4:07WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 21, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−1.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.8%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2WMU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q2 2:15NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 12:54WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 7:47NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.4%−0.5
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 6:25WMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    28.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−1.0
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1DOWNS
7 plays · 35 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
25.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 9 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+20
25.0%
Marcus Jones run for 20 yds to the WMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
25.0%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 44
-1
25.0%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+3
25.0%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 42
+2
25.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 2 yds to the WMich 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2MISSED FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 5:1473% → 71%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
26.6%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 40
-2
26.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 38Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 12
OWN 38
+16
26.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 16 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+4
26.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 6
OPP 42
+3
26.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+2
26.5%
Davon Tucker run for 2 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 1
OPP 37
+22
26.6%
Jon Wassink run for 22 yds to the NoIll 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
26.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 4
OPP 9
-10
26.4%
BELLAMY, L. rush for loss of 1 yard to the NIU10 (TERRY, Marshe;MCKIE, Jalen), PENALTY WMU holding 10 yards to the NIU19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 14
OPP 19
0
26.5%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 14
OPP 19
+2
26.7%
Jon Wassink run for 2 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q1 6:06
4TH & 12
OPP 17
+34
29.2%
Gavin Peddie 34 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Jordan Cole Jordan Cole return for 25 yds to the WMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3FUMBLE
4 plays · 28 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+2
30.2%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the WMich 42Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OPP 42
+10
30.2%
Marcus Childers run for 10 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-8
30.4%
Team run for a loss of 8 yards to the WMich 40 Team fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus JonesSimilar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 18
OPP 40
-1
29.7%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Michael Love for a loss of 1 yard Michael Love fumbled, recovered by WMich Braden FiskeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
29.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 4 yds to the WMich 45Similar
Q1 3:53
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
29.4%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:53
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+5
29.6%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 3:53
4TH & 1
50
0
29.8%
Davon Tucker run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FG
5 plays · 24 yds · 2:1132% → 34%
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
50
+16
32.4%
Marcus Childers run for 16 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+6
32.7%
Michael Love run for 6 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 4
OPP 28
+2
32.7%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q1 2:36
3RD & 2
OPP 26
0
32.3%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:25
4TH & 2
OPP 26
+44
33.8%
John Richardson 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:2566% → 65%
Q1 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
33.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
33.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 8 yds to the WMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-1
33.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 35Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 35
+1
33.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Sean Tyler for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
34.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 36
+3
34.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 39 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:0035% → 34%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
34.6%
Marcus Jones run for 7 yds to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+9
35.4%
Marcus Jones run for 9 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
35.7%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-6
35.2%
Marcus Childers sacked by Timothy Collins and Patrick Lupro for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 16
OWN 38
0
34.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Marcus Jones for no gain to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:32
4TH & 16
OWN 38
0
33.5%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon Jr. at the WMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0063% → 62%
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
36.9%
Sean Tyler run for 7 yds to the WMich 18Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 3
OWN 18
+6
36.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the WMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
36.7%
Sean Tyler run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 10:37
2ND & 11
OWN 23
0
36.9%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
3RD & 11
OWN 23
0
37.7%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:37
4TH & 11
OWN 23
0
38.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0038% → 36%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
38.4%
Marcus Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 14
OWN 35
-6
37.4%
Rondarius Gregory run for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 9:02
3RD & 20
OWN 29
+5
36.4%
Marcus Jones run for 5 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 9:02
4TH & 15
OWN 34
0
36.1%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, downed at the WMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10MISSED FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 4:1961% → 57%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
39.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the WMich 28Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 1
OWN 28
+6
38.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the WMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
38.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the WMich 35Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
38.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 6 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+34
37.6%
Jon Wassink run for 34 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
36.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-10
36.0%
BELLAMY, L. rush for no gain to the NIU23 (GRIFFIN, Jeffre), PENALTY WMU holding 10 yards to the NIU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 18
OPP 33
-1
37.3%
Jon Wassink run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 34Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 19
OPP 34
+5
38.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 2:31
4TH & 14
OPP 29
+46
43.2%
Gavin Peddie 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11TD
1 play · 71 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 2:15
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+71
55.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 71 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12FUMBLE
13 plays · 45 yds · 1:1746% → 47%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
53.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 5 yds to the WMich 37Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+24
52.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 24 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
51.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 14 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
50.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the NoIll 17Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 2
OPP 17
-5
50.2%
Jon Wassink run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 27 Jon Wassink fumbled, forced by Matt Lorbeck, recovered by WMich Jon WassinkSimilar
Q2 1:01
3RD & 12
OPP 27
+9
54.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 9 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 0:53
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+5
55.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 5 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-7
52.7%
Jon Wassink sacked by Matt Lorbeck for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 23 Jon Wassink fumbled, recovered by NoIll Trayshon Foster , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
58.1%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 14TD
6 plays · 81 yds · 2:0444% → 58%
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
56.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 13 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+55
55.7%
LeVante Bellamy run for 55 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:58
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+2
52.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 14:58
2ND & 8
OPP 11
+5
52.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 3
OPP 6
+6
42.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0047% → 45%
Q3 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
47.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 12:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-1
47.0%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-2
45.6%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 12:54
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
44.5%
Matt Ference punt for 50 yds, downed at the WMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0053% → 50%
Q3 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
46.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q3 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
47.4%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
3RD & 10
OWN 27
0
48.6%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:41
4TH & 10
OWN 27
0
50.0%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
12 plays · 18 yds · 5:3149% → 51%
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
49.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+22
50.8%
Marcus Childers run for 22 yds to the WMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
52.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the WMich 38Similar
Q3 10:12
2ND & 7
OPP 38
-3
52.5%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 3 yards to the WMich 41Similar
Q3 10:12
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+9
50.9%
Marcus Childers run for 9 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q3 10:12
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+1
50.3%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-6
53.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the WMich 27 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the WMich 37Similar
Q3 10:12
1ST & 16
OPP 37
+2
51.3%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 14
OPP 35
-10
56.5%
CHILDERS, Marcu rush for 35 yards to the WMU0, clock 04:41, PENALTY NIU holding 10 yards to the WMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:41
2ND & 24
OPP 45
0
55.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q3 4:41
3RD & 24
OPP 45
-5
53.8%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the 50 yard line Team fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus Childers , return to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 4:41
4TH & 29
50
0
51.4%
Matt Ference punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0048% → 44%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
52.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 18Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+3
52.8%
LeVante Bellamy run for 3 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 7
OWN 21
-5
54.2%
WASSINK, J. pass complete to MOORE, S. for 7 yards to the WMU28 (MCKIE, Jalen), PENALTY WMU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the WMU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 12
OWN 16
0
54.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy Moore, broken up by Jalen McKieSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 12
OWN 16
-3
55.9%
Nick Mihalic punt for 58 yds , Cole Tucker returns for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0055% → 53%
Q3 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+3
55.1%
Jordan Nettles run for 3 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 2:25
2ND & 7
OWN 26
+2
55.1%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 2:25
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+3
53.8%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 2:25
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
53.2%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds , Keith Mixon Jr. returns for no gain to the WMich 11 Keith Mixon Jr. fumbled, recovered by WMich Keith Mixon Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:1643% → 40%
Q3 0:16
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+1
56.7%
Davon Tucker run for 1 yd to the WMich 12Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 12
0
57.4%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 12
0
59.0%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 12
0
60.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 42 yds, downed at the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 0:0064% → 58%
Q4 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
64.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 1 yd to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 14:40
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
64.0%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 14:40
3RD & 9
OWN 47
-5
61.8%
Marcus Childers sacked by Ali Fayad for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 37 Marcus Childers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marcus Childers , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 14:40
4TH & 19
OWN 37
0
58.4%
Matt Ference punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 22PUNT
4 plays · -18 yds · 0:0040% → 36%
Q4 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
59.9%
Jon Wassink run for 4 yds to the WMich 24Similar
Q4 12:18
2ND & 6
OWN 24
-7
59.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 7 yards to the WMich 17Similar
Q4 12:18
3RD & 13
OWN 17
-15
62.4%
Jon Wassink sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 15 yards to the WMich 2Similar
Q4 12:18
4TH & 28
OWN 2
+13
64.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the WMich 30 , Cole Tucker returns for 13 yds to the WMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 30 yds · 2:1871% → 89%
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-1
71.4%
Tyrice Richie run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 31Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+26
71.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 26 yds to the WMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
71.4%
Rondarius Gregory run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 7Similar
Q4 10:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
71.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Patrick LuproSimilar
Q4 7:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
88.5%
Michael Love pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 24TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:2212% → 43%
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
88.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr.Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+17
88.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 17 yds to the WMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+21
85.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 21 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+15
85.1%
WASSINK, J. pass incomplete to MIXON JR., K., PENALTY NIU pass interference (FOSTER, Traysho) 15 yards to the NIU22, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:47
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+6
83.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 4
OPP 16
0
83.3%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 4
OPP 16
+16
57.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0070% → 66%
Q4 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
69.8%
Rondarius Gregory run for 2 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 8
OWN 27
-5
69.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 6:25
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-1
68.9%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 6:25
3RD & 14
OWN 21
0
67.2%
Marcus Childers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:25
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
66.1%
Matt Ference punt for 58 yds, downed at the WMich 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0034% → 30%
Q4 4:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
66.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 21Similar
Q4 4:07
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
66.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon Bussell, broken up by Trayshon FosterSimilar
Q4 4:07
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
68.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q4 4:07
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
70.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 53 yds, downed at the NoIll 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27FUMBLE
9 plays · 52 yds · 0:5580% → 89%
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
79.7%
Rondarius Gregory run for 2 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q4 3:03
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+33
82.2%
Rondarius Gregory run for 33 yds to the WMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
85.4%
Rondarius Gregory run for 4 yds to the WMich 35Similar
Q4 2:24
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
90.0%
Rondarius Gregory run for 3 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q4 2:18
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+7
88.8%
Marcus Childers run for 7 yds to the WMich 22 Marcus Childers fumbled, forced by Justin Tranquill, recovered by WMich Ali FayadSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 28FUMBLE
1 play · 29 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+26
87.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 26 yds DaShon Bussell fumbled, forced by Dillon Thomas, recovered by NoIll Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29END OF GAME
3 plays · -4 yds · 0:0089% → 86%
Q4 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
88.5%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 2:02
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-2
88.0%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 46Similar
Q4 2:02
3RD & 13
OWN 46
-1
85.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:25
LeVante Bellamy run for 16 yds for a TD (Thiago Kapps KICK)
-26.4
TD · Q4 7:47
Michael Love pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)
+17.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+14.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com