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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 14:55 · Louie Zervos 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 7:20: Cory Smigel 25 yd FG GOOD — AKR win probability +0.8 pts (now 8%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
- FG · Q2 14:55: Louie Zervos 40 yd FG GOOD — OHIO win probability +0.7 pts (now 93%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 9:15: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 9 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +2.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:44: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.9 pts (now 97%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q3 12:06: O'Shaan Allison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +1.8 pts (now 99%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 10 of 11OHIO made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
- Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snapGo for it5.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.4%average punt
- Q1 13:25OHIO 4th & 4 at OHIO 34, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 94.2% before the snapGo for it94.2%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call94.2%average punt
- Q1 11:31AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 6.3% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.4%average punt
- Q1 9:47AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 32, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.4% before the snapGo for it6.3%−0.129% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call6.5%average punt
- Q1 7:20AKR 4th & 7 at OHIO 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 7.1% before the snapGo for it7.1%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call7.1%91% to makePunt6.6%−0.5average punt
- Q1 4:59AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 23, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.222% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 2:48AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 41, down 11Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.5% before the snapGo for it7.4%−0.229% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q2 14:55OHIO 4th & 2 at AKR 23, up 11Close callKicked a field goal · 91.9% before the snapGo for it91.9%57% to convertField goalTheir call91.7%−0.270% to makePunt90.7%−1.1average punt
- Q2 14:06AKR 4th & 18 at AKR 35, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.1%−0.512% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.6%average punt
- Q2 9:15AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 27, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it5.0%−0.233% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.2%average punt
- Q2 6:59OHIO 4th & 8 at AKR 48, up 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snapGo for it95.5%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.5%average punt
- Q2 2:04AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 21, down 21Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.1% before the snapGo for it4.9%−0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call5.0%average punt
- Q3 11:58AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 30, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.116% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.0%average punt
- Q3 10:18OHIO 4th & 8 at OHIO 26, up 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.9%−0.133% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.0%average punt
- Q3 9:21AKR 4th & 10 at OHIO 39, down 35Close callPunted · 0.9% before the snapGo for it0.8%30% to convertField goal0.8%−<0.136% to makePuntTheir call0.8%−<0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
- Q1 9:55OHIO Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call93.4%97% to makeGo for two93.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:59OHIO Touchdown, up 10 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.6%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 9:15OHIO Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.5%97% to makeGo for two94.5%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:44OHIO Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.7%97% to makeGo for two98.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 12:06OHIO Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.0%97% to makeGo for two99.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 12:03OHIO Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 6:41OHIO Touchdown, up 48 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartAKRDrive 1PUNT7 plays · 13 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q1 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 38
+1
5.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 35 yds , Isiah Cox returns for 1 yd to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 11:31
4TH & 5
OWN 22
+4
7.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 35 yds , Isiah Cox returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4TD1 play · 53 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
6.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to DL Knock for 53 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT5 plays · 0 yds · 0:007% → 7%
OHIODrive 6FUMBLE1 play · -11 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 9:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-10
7.2%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Davon'te Jest for a loss of 10 yards to the Ohio 17 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by Akron Davon'te Jest , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7FG5 plays · 10 yds · 1:448% → 8%
Q1 9:04
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+10
7.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 10 yds to the Ohio 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8TD7 plays · 73 yds · 2:1592% → 92%
Q1 7:14
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+25
8.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 25 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
8.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 6 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 4:59
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+39
7.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 39 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT6 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 4:59
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+4
7.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 41 yds , Isiah Cox returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · 19 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
7.9%
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd to the Akron 41 O'Shaan Allison fumbled, forced by Dylan Meeks, recovered by Akron A.J. WattsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:009% → 8%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FG6 plays · 59 yds · 2:2792% → 93%
Q1 2:22
2ND & 2
OPP 23
+1
8.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 1 yd to the Akron 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT8 plays · 5 yds · 0:418% → 8%
Q2 14:47
2ND & 8
OWN 32
+11
8.0%
NELSON,KATO pass incomplete to SCIPPIO,T., PENALTY OHIO pass interference 11 yards to the AKRON43, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
8.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Knight, broken up by Keye ThompsonSimilar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 10
OWN 43
-8
7.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Dylan Conner for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 14:06
4TH & 18
OWN 35
0
7.7%
Jonah Wieland punt for 35 yds , Isiah Cox returns for no gain to the Ohio 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 14TD10 plays · 70 yds · 4:1193% → 95%
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
7.5%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 6 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:26
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
7.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Shane Hooks, broken up by Jordyn RileySimilar
Q2 13:26
3RD & 5
OPP 16
+7
7.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 7 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
5.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 9 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q2 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
5.6%
Zach Gibson sacked by Amos Ogun-Semore for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 16Similar
Q2 9:15
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+1
5.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michiah Burton for 1 yd to the Akron 17Similar
Q2 9:15
3RD & 18
OWN 17
+10
5.6%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michiah Burton for 10 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q2 9:15
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
5.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Isiah Cox at the Ohio 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 16PUNT9 plays · 27 yds · 0:0094% → 94%
AKRDrive 17PUNT6 plays · 5 yds · 1:276% → 6%
Q2 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 18
0
5.6%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Timothy Scippio, broken up by Justin BirchetteSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 8
OWN 18
-9
5.6%
GIBSON,ZACH pass complete to SCIPPIO,T. for 10 yards to the AKRON28 (BROOKS, M.), PENALTY AKRON holding 9 yards to the AKRON9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 17
OWN 9
+12
5.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 12 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 5
OWN 21
+10
6.3%
Jonah Wieland punt for 43 yds , Isiah Cox returns for 10 yds to the Ohio 31 OHIO Penalty, illegal block (15 Yards) to the Ohio 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 18TD5 plays · 69 yds · 1:1695% → 97%
Q2 2:00
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+38
5.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 38 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
4.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 6 yds to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 2:00
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+13
4.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 13 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:44
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
2.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 20TD8 plays · 80 yds · 2:4897% → 99%
AKRDrive 21PUNT5 plays · -5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 37
-7
1.1%
Zach Gibson sacked by Jack McCrory and Xavior Motley for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 11:58
4TH & 15
OWN 30
+3
1.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 39 yds , Isiah Cox returns for 3 yds to the Ohio 33 OHIO Penalty, illegal block (10 Yards) to the Ohio 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 22PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
AKRDrive 23PUNT11 plays · 31 yds · 0:001% → 1%
OHIODrive 24TD14 plays · 80 yds · 7:5399% → 100%
Q3 4:56
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+16
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to K.J. Minter for 16 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Shane Hooks, broken up by John LakoSimilar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+16
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 16 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
0.6%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Josh Ward and Dylan Meeks for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 49Similar
Q3 4:56
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+8
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 8 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q3 4:56
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+21
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Camryn Snow for 21 yds to the Akron 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
0.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to K.J. Minter for 6 yds to the Akron 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25INT3 plays · -5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
OHIODrive 26TD9 plays · 55 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
AKRDrive 27INT6 plays · 13 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:30
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+9
0.1%
Robbie Kelley pass intercepted Isaac Gill return for 9 yds to the Akron 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 28END OF GAME7 plays · 26 yds · 1:28100% → 100%
Q4 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 35
+21
0.2%
Drew Keszei pass complete to Bingo Long for 21 yds to the Akron 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 9:15
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 9 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-2.2
TD · Q2 0:44
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 11 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-1.9
TD · Q3 12:06
O'Shaan Allison run for 7 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-1.8