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TOL

Toledo 30 at Buffalo 49

BUF
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 20, 2019 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:13 · Jackson Baltar punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 27
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factorBlowout margin
+36.5+18.30−18.3−36.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Home team on offense+0.0Pregame prior+18.9Score differential−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:05: Bryant Koback run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK) — TOL win probability +5.7 pts (now 36%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:40: Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.1 pts (now 81%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 11:54: Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +6.3 pts (now 31%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:37: Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.8 pts (now 86%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 11:10: Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.6 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 4 of 5TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 75.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:43TOL 4th & 4 at BUF 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:13BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 5, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.3%
    average punt
  4. Q1 7:50TOL 4th & 3 at BUF 20, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 26.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.3%−0.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    25.5%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:50BUF 4th & 5 at TOL 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.2%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    74.2%−<0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    74.0%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q1 0:29TOL 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    18.9%−1.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−4.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:40BUF 4th & 2 at BUF 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.1%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:39TOL 4th & 4 at BUF 4, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.4%−0.5
    93% to make
    Punt
    18.4%−5.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:54TOL 4th & 7 at BUF 24, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.2%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.6%
    68% to make
    Punt
    13.5%−7.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:36TOL 4th & 7 at BUF 7, down 12
    Close callWent for it · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    13.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    8.1%−5.0
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:26BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 10, up 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    87.5%−0.6
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:07TOL 4th & 18 at TOL 39, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.1%−1.9
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.0%
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:05TOL 4th & 7 at BUF 22, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 3.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.0%−0.4
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    3.4%
    72% to make
    Punt
    0.5%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 3:38BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:51BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:29TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 13:05TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:25BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    75.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    75.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:40BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 6:37BUF Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:10BUF Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.5%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 3:06BUF Touchdown, up 25 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 0:18TOL Touchdown, down 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
70.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+1
70.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 31
+3
70.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 34
0
70.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, downed at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+3
70.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 7
OWN 36
+6
70.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 1
OWN 42
+4
70.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
70.0%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:43
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
70.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q1 12:43
3RD & 4
OPP 48
0
70.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q1 12:43
4TH & 4
OPP 48
0
70.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 44 yds, downed at the Buff 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0070% → 69%
Q1 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+1
69.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 10:13
2ND & 9
OWN 5
0
69.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:13
3RD & 9
OWN 5
0
69.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:13
4TH & 9
OWN 5
0
69.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4MISSED FG
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2731% → 31%
Q1 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
68.9%
Eli Peters pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 10
OPP 27
0
68.9%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 9:17
3RD & 10
OPP 27
+7
69.1%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 3
OPP 20
+37
68.9%
Evan Davis 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
10 plays · 80 yds · 4:1269% → 73%
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+44
69.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 44 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
70.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 10
OPP 36
-1
70.0%
Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 7:50
3RD & 11
OPP 37
+6
69.7%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 7:50
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+12
69.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 12 yds to the Toled 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+3
70.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & 7
OPP 16
+10
70.2%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
70.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q1 7:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
70.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 4Similar
Q1 3:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
73.0%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0028% → 28%
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+2
72.3%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 8
OWN 10
+2
72.3%
Eli Peters pass intercepted Matt Otwinowski return for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7TD
1 play · 24 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
77.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 24 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
7 plays · 45 yds · 2:1425% → 29%
Q1 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
75.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & 2
OPP 37
+28
75.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 28 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
74.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q1 2:43
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
74.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q1 2:43
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
75.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Reggie GilliamSimilar
Q1 0:29
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
71.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · 8 yds · 1:4973% → 72%
Q1 0:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
72.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
72.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
72.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for no gain to the Buff 33Similar
Q2 13:40
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
71.7%
Jackson Baltar punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10TD
3 plays · 59 yds · 0:2729% → 36%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+52
71.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 52 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
69.6%
[SGUN], PETERS,Eli pass incomplete to McKINLEY-LEWIS (RUSSELL, Devon), PENALTY UB pass interference (RUSSELL, Devon) 5 yards to the UB2, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
63.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:4067% → 74%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
67.4%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+24
67.5%
Kevin Marks run for 24 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
69.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 1 yd to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+9
69.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 9 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+3
69.2%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 7
OPP 35
+19
69.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 19 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+13
69.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the Toled 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
69.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 13:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
69.5%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 9:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12FG
12 plays · 54 yds · 4:3828% → 33%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
71.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
71.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 9:17
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+15
72.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 15 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+4
70.7%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 6
OPP 37
+6
70.4%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+3
69.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & 7
OPP 28
+19
69.5%
Eli Peters run for 19 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
69.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
Q2 9:17
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
69.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 5 yds to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 9:17
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
0
70.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+21
66.8%
Thomas Cluckey 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:5970% → 81%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
69.7%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 24 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+25
71.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 25 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
72.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+15
72.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
72.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 5Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
72.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q2 0:40
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
81.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14FG
11 plays · 43 yds · 0:3521% → 25%
Q2 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
78.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q2 0:27
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+12
79.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 12 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
78.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:27
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-8
77.7%
Eli Peters sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 8 yards to the Buff 42 Eli Peters fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 19
OPP 42
+21
81.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 21 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+38
74.8%
Thomas Cluckey 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15FG
9 plays · 52 yds · 3:0123% → 31%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
77.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+4
76.7%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 33
+4
76.9%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+36
76.5%
Bryant Koback run for 36 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
73.5%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OPP 24
0
73.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 7
OPP 24
0
75.2%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Aapri WashingtonSimilar
Q3 11:54
4TH & 7
OPP 24
+41
68.9%
Thomas Cluckey 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:1772% → 86%
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
72.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 3
OWN 32
0
73.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q3 11:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+4
72.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:54
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
73.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 11:54
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
74.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-2
75.4%
Ron Cook Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 12
OWN 46
0
74.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jaret PattersonSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 12
OWN 46
+13
72.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 13 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
75.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
75.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q3 9:56
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+28
74.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 28 yds to the Toled 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
76.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 9:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-1
76.1%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 6:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
85.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17DOWNS
11 plays · 56 yds · 3:0118% → 14%
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
81.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Devin Maddox for 12 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
81.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+17
81.7%
Bryant Koback run for 17 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+6
80.4%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & 4
OPP 13
+7
80.4%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the Buff 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
80.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 7Similar
Q3 6:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
80.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 3:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
85.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
0
86.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q3 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+2
89.0%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q3 3:26
2ND & 8
OWN 9
+1
88.9%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 10Similar
Q3 3:26
3RD & 7
OWN 10
0
88.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 3:26
4TH & 7
OWN 10
0
88.0%
Jackson Baltar punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
Q3 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
86.6%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 8
OWN 49
0
86.3%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 2:07
3RD & 8
OWN 49
-10
87.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 2:07
4TH & 18
OWN 39
+4
88.9%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 37 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
8 plays · 72 yds · 3:5191% → 98%
Q3 0:01
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
90.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+10
90.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
91.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 13 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
91.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+23
91.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 23 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
91.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Toled 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-1
91.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 11:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
98.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
96.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Roy BakerSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+31
96.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 31 yds to the Buff 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
95.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 11:05
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
95.8%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 11:05
3RD & 10
OPP 25
-2
96.1%
Carter Bradley sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 12
OPP 27
+5
96.3%
[SGUN], BRADLEY,Carter pass incomplete to MITCHELL,Bryce, PENALTY UB offside (MACK, Ledarius) 5 yards to the UB22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:05
4TH & 7
OPP 22
0
96.2%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22TD
14 plays · 78 yds · 5:5698% → 100%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
98.1%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 23Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+18
98.1%
Kevin Marks run for 18 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
98.3%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+34
98.3%
Kevin Marks run for 34 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-5
98.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (FUZAK, Jake) 5 yards to the TOLEDO25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:02
1ST & 15
OPP 25
-2
98.4%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 9:02
2ND & 17
OPP 27
+7
98.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 9:02
3RD & 10
OPP 20
+11
98.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the Toled 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
99.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 3:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+7
99.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Toled 1Similar
Q4 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23TD
11 plays · 64 yds · 2:420% → 1%
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
100.0%
Ronnie Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 8
OWN 38
-2
100.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OWN 36
+17
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Terrel Ferrell for 17 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 13 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 3:00
2ND & 10
OPP 22
0
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin Maddox, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q4 3:00
3RD & 10
OPP 22
+17
100.0%
Carter Bradley run for 17 yds to the Buff 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
99.1%
Ronnie Jones run for 5 yds for a TD (Thomas Cluckey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24END OF GAME
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 6:37
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+9.8
TD · Q2 0:40
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+9.1
TD · Q4 11:10
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
+6.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com