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CMU

Central Michigan 45 at Ball State 44

BALL
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:30 · Brady Buell punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+23.0+11.50−11.5−23.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 36Home team on offense−0.7Score differential−0.8Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.4Pregame prior+3.0Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 7:39: Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 64 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +12.6 pts (now 90%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:04: Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +13.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:10: Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +19.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. FG · Q4 5:09: Ryan Rimmler 33 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +13.0 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:01: Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +50.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 8CMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 9 at BALL 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:03CMU 4th & 4 at BALL 19, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    45.5%−<0.1
    77% to make
    Punt
    44.5%−1.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:37BALL 4th & 9 at CMU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    54.1%
    66% to make
    Punt
    52.6%−1.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30CMU 4th & 7 at BALL 36, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−0.1
    42% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 1 at CMU 11, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    55.6%−0.7
    87% to make
    Punt
    53.3%−3.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:01BALL 4th & 8 at CMU 8, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 76.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.4%−0.6
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    70.5%−5.5
    average punt
  7. Q3 7:38CMU 4th & 9 at BALL 34, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 13.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    12.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    11.9%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q4 15:00BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 27, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.6%−2.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  9. Q4 13:04BALL 4th & 4 at CMU 44, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 69.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−4.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    69.0%−1.9
    average punt
  10. Q4 10:45CMU 4th & 13 at CMU 6, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.7%−3.6
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.3%
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:09BALL 4th & 9 at CMU 16, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.0%−2.3
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    71.3%
    81% to make
    Punt
    52.9%−18.4
    average punt
  12. Q4 0:55BALL 4th & 10 at BALL 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.3%
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    25.6%−1.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q2 9:26BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:12BALL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:10CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    26.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    26.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:21BALL Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:21CMU Touchdown, down 10 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    25.1%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    25.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 7:39BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:23CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 2:31BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 1:04CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 13:10CMU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 1:01CMU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−4.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 12 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
53.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
53.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 33Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
53.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
53.7%
Justin Hall run for 1 yd to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
0
53.7%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 37
+20
53.7%
Nathan Snyder punt for 49 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 20 yds to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2FG
10 plays · 47 yds · 4:3246% → 47%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
53.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+7
53.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
53.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+14
53.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 14 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
53.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 9 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 1
OPP 29
+4
53.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 4 yds to the BalSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-1
53.6%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 11
OPP 26
0
53.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Ray WilbornSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 11
OPP 26
+7
53.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 8:03
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
53.5%
Ryan Tice 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
10 plays · 50 yds · 3:2654% → 55%
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
53.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 11 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-5
53.8%
BALL ST Penalty, false start (Zac Ricketts) to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 15
OWN 31
+32
53.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 32 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
54.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
54.5%
Justin Hall run for 10 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
54.8%
Walter Fletcher run for 5 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 8:03
2ND & 5
OPP 21
-4
54.8%
Drew Plitt sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 8:03
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
54.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q1 4:37
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
54.8%
Ryan Rimmler 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 5 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+6
53.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
53.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
53.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
53.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OPP 36
0
53.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 7
OPP 36
0
54.2%
Brady Buell punt for 19 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5DOWNS
8 plays · 72 yds · 2:0955% → 56%
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+49
55.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 49 yds to the CMich 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 34
-15
56.7%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 17 yards to the CMU17 (BRASWELL, M.), PENALTY BALL illegal block (RUDY, Cody) 15 yards to the CMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 25
OPP 49
+7
55.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q1 2:09
2ND & 18
OPP 42
+22
55.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 22 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+3
56.8%
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 17
+4
57.3%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 13
+2
56.7%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 11
0
55.9%
Drew Plitt run for no gain to the CMich 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+5
54.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 5
OWN 16
+2
54.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 14:06
3RD & 3
OWN 18
+6
54.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:06
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-2
54.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 14:06
2ND & 12
OWN 22
0
54.4%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Jacob White return for no gain to the CMich 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
6 plays · 32 yds · 2:2658% → 65%
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+1
58.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 9
OWN 0
+8
55.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 8 yds to the CMich 23 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 11:52
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+7
57.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
58.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the CMich 13Similar
Q2 11:52
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+8
58.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 8 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
65.1%
Danny Pinter run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FUMBLE
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0037% → 38%
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
63.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q2 9:19
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+6
62.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+17
62.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 17 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+9
62.0%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 26 Kobe Lewis fumbled, forced by Jacob White, recovered by BalSt Jaylin Thomas , return for 9 yds to the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9TD
5 plays · 26 yds · 1:5667% → 74%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
-2
66.5%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 12
OPP 28
+17
66.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 17 yds to the CMich 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
66.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the CMich 6Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
66.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the CMich 2Similar
Q2 6:12
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
73.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11FG
8 plays · 52 yds · 4:0074% → 82%
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
74.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
74.2%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+8
73.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 8 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+39
74.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for 39 yds to the CMich 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
74.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 6:01
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
74.4%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the CMich 3Similar
Q2 6:01
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
-5
73.8%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 5 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 2:01
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+25
81.8%
Ryan Rimmler 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 0:5120% → 36%
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
80.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+36
80.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 21 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, roughing passer (Tuni Ropati) to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
78.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 5 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 1:41
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+6
77.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:41
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+27
77.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 27 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
76.6%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
63.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Quinten Dormady pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
6 plays · 63 yds · 0:4370% → 81%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
69.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+42
69.5%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 42 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
71.6%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+6
71.6%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to DAVIS, Antwan (McKINNIE-HARPER), PENALTY CMU pass interference (McKINNIE-HARPER) 6 yards to the CMU11, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:21
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
81.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 11 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:1123% → 25%
Q2 0:12
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
77.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+18
78.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 18 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+36
75.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 36 yds to the BalSt 1 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15TD
13 plays · 80 yds · 5:3421% → 27%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
79.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+4
78.3%
Quinten Dormady run for 4 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+2
78.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+4
78.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 35Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 35
+4
78.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 4 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 39
+3
77.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
78.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+25
77.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 25 yds to the BalSt 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
75.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 15 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+2
75.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the BalSt 12Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 8
OPP 12
+6
75.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 2
OPP 6
+6
72.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16TD
4 plays · 65 yds · 1:3376% → 90%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
76.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 38Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 38
-2
77.4%
Justin Hall run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 7:39
3RD & 9
OWN 36
+64
90.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 64 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
8 plays · 35 yds · 2:1515% → 27%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+1
85.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the BalSt 34Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 9
OPP 34
0
85.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 9
OPP 34
0
86.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Bryce CosbySimilar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 9
OPP 34
+13
86.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 13 yds to the BalSt 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+4
84.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 6
OPP 17
+8
84.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the BalSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
73.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18TD
9 plays · 72 yds · 2:4579% → 93%
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+11
79.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 11 yds to the BalSt 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
80.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 4
OWN 45
+38
80.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 38 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
80.9%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 19Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & 12
OPP 19
+10
80.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Kyron McKinnie-Harper) to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-3
80.9%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q3 5:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 12
-2
80.8%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 14Similar
Q3 2:31
3RD & GOAL
OPP 14
+14
92.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 14 yds for a TD (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 1:2210% → 24%
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+30
89.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the BalSt 42 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, face mask off-setting (15 Yards) to the BalSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+15
91.2%
DORMADY, Q. pass incomplete to SULLIVAN, J., PENALTY BALL pass interference (POTTS, Tyler) 15 yards to the BALL28, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:26
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
89.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 2:26
2ND & 10
OPP 28
+25
90.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 25 yds to the BalSt 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
89.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q3 1:04
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:5882% → 81%
Q3 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-4
82.4%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 4 yards to the BalSt 25Similar
Q3 0:58
2ND & 14
OWN 25
+2
81.8%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Caleb Huntley for 2 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 27
0
82.0%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Walter FletcherSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 27
0
81.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 29 yds, downed at the CMich 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
6 plays · 56 yds · 1:3819% → 42%
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
80.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:48
2ND & 4
50
0
79.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q4 14:48
3RD & 4
50
+22
80.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 22 yds to the BalSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:48
1ST & 10
OPP 0
+9
78.2%
DORMADY, Q. pass intercepted by POTTS, Tyler at the BALL5, POTTS, Tyler return to the BALL5, PENALTY BALL pass interference (POTTS, Tyler) 12 yards to the BALL16, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY, PENALTY BALL unsportsmanlike conduct (WHITE, Jacob) 9 yards to the BALL7, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+2
78.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the BalSt 5Similar
Q4 13:10
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
58.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0070% → 70%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
70.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+12
69.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 12 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
50
+6
72.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 4
OPP 44
0
72.6%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the CMich 44Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 4
OPP 44
0
71.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Chuck JonesSimilar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 4
OPP 44
0
69.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 35 yds, downed at the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 30%
Q4 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
67.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the CMich 14Similar
Q4 10:45
2ND & 5
OWN 14
+2
66.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 10:45
3RD & 3
OWN 16
-10
68.1%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Christian Albright for a loss of 10 yards to the CMich 6Similar
Q4 10:45
4TH & 13
OWN 6
0
70.2%
Brady Buell punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:2874% → 87%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
50
+18
74.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 18 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
75.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 26
+2
75.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 2
OPP 24
+7
74.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the CMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
75.7%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 18Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+2
75.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 9
OPP 16
0
73.9%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 9
OPP 16
+33
86.9%
Ryan Rimmler 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 4:0324% → 83%
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
75.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan WardSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+3
77.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 5:04
3RD & 7
OWN 31
+18
77.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 18 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
71.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+27
74.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 27 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
67.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kobe LewisSimilar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+15
68.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the BalSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:04
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
67.6%
Quinten Dormady run for 5 yds to the BalSt 6Similar
Q4 5:04
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+4
67.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the BalSt 2Similar
Q4 1:01
3RD & 1
OPP 2
+2
17.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26INT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 37%
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
41.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for no gain to the BalSt 35Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
41.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Antwan Davis, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q4 0:55
3RD & 10
OWN 35
0
38.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 10
OWN 35
0
37.1%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Troy Brown return for no gain to the CMich 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27Uncategorized
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q4 0:31
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-2
14.5%
N/A run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
-50.4
TD · Q4 13:10
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds for a TD (Ryan Tice KICK)
-19.9
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-14.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com