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BUF

Buffalo 27 at Kent State 30

KENT
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 14, 2019 · Dix Stadium
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Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameTD+33.9KENT 57.8%Dustin Crum pass complete to MikeCarrigan for 5 yds for a TD (MatthewTrickett KICK)AWAY 27 - HOME 27 · Q4 4:52
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 4:52 · Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+45.0+22.50−22.5−45.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 167Home team on offense+4.0Score differential−1.2Pregame prior−0.7Garbage-time factor−1.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.8Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 3:51: Kevin Marks run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +19.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 7:39: Xavier Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +6.6 pts (now 10%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 7:12: Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +22.1 pts (now 30%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 4:52: Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +33.9 pts (now 58%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Matthew Trickett 44 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +29.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 9
  1. Q1 11:20KENT 4th & 10 at KENT 35, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.9%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:09BUF 4th & 6 at KENT 40, up 7
    Close callPunted · 64.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    64.1%−0.2
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:29KENT 4th & 16 at KENT 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.9%−0.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:11BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 41, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    63.6%−1.1
    32% to make
    Punt
    63.8%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:11BUF 4th & 11 at KENT 14, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.9%−1.3
    23% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    66.8%−6.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:44KENT 4th & 1 at BUF 6, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsKicked a field goal · 25.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.6%
    69% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    24.5%−1.2
    91% to make
    Punt
    21.5%−4.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 4:49BUF 4th & 12 at BUF 23, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.2%−2.3
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:39KENT 4th & 11 at KENT 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−1.0
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.0%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:27BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.9%−0.5
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 0:26KENT 4th & 19 at KENT 21, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−2.0
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.7%
    average punt
  11. Q3 14:56KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 48, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.1%
    average punt
  12. Q3 13:07BUF 4th & 1 at KENT 47, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.6%−1.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:44KENT 4th & 23 at KENT 21, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−4.0
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.0%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:18BUF 4th & 4 at KENT 14, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.3%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    95.2%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    91.7%−3.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:12BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%−2.9
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 4:52KENT 4th & 5 at BUF 5, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.4%
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    22.0%−2.4
    92% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−13.9
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:15BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 45, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 5.5 ptsPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.9%−5.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 3 of 3BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 11:26BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:39BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 3:51BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 7:39KENT Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    6.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    6.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 7:12KENT Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    14.5%−1.5
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:52KENT Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.7%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
10 plays · 54 yds · 3:3459% → 60%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
40.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the KntSt 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+5
40.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
40.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+4
40.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 37Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+10
40.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the KntSt 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
40.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel LeeSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+2
40.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 25Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 25
-5
40.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Evin Ksiezarczyk) to the KntSt 30Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 13
OPP 30
+30
40.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 30 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
40.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 5
OWN 26
+3
40.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 3 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 2
OWN 29
+6
40.6%
Will Matthews run for 6 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
40.7%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q1 11:20
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+5
40.6%
Dustin Crum run for 5 yds to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 11:20
3RD & 5
OWN 40
-5
40.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Malcolm Koonce and Taylor Riggins for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 35Similar
Q1 11:20
4TH & 10
OWN 35
+2
40.4%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 2 yds to the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+17
40.2%
Kevin Marks run for 17 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
39.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+9
40.0%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+4
39.9%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the KntSt 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
39.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q1 9:09
2ND & 7
OPP 41
+3
39.8%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q1 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 38
-2
39.9%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 40Similar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 6
OPP 40
0
40.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 25 yds, downed at the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:0040% → 39%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-5
39.9%
CRUM, Dustin pass complete to PRICE, Kavious for 11 yards to the KENTST26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (GREGOIRE, Adam) 5 yards to the KENTST10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 15
OWN 10
0
39.9%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 15
OWN 10
-1
39.9%
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 9Similar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 16
OWN 9
0
39.5%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 16
OWN 9
0
39.4%
Derek Adams punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:3261% → 68%
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
50
+6
38.6%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the KntSt 44Similar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+2
38.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+1
38.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 41Similar
Q1 4:11
4TH & 1
OPP 41
+16
39.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 16 yds to the KntSt 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
38.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 4:11
2ND & 10
OPP 25
-3
38.6%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q1 4:11
3RD & 13
OPP 28
+13
39.0%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (HINES, Elvis) 13 yards to the KENTST15, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:11
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+6
38.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 9
+8
37.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 8 yds to the KntSt 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 6INT
9 plays · 18 yds · 0:0035% → 36%
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
35.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 4
OPP 34
+3
35.6%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 31
+2
35.2%
Dustin Crum run for 2 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+8
35.6%
Kavious Price run for 8 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 14:30
2ND & 2
OPP 21
+1
35.6%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 14:30
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
35.2%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-5
35.6%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 14:30
1ST & 15
OPP 22
+18
35.6%
Dustin Crum pass intercepted Joey Banks return for 18 yds to the Buff 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:1469% → 74%
Q2 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+31
31.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 31 yds to the KntSt 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+12
30.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 12 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+18
30.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 18 yds to the KntSt 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
30.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the KntSt 10Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 7
OPP 10
-8
30.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 3 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal block (Antonio Nunn) to the KntSt 18Similar
Q2 11:50
2ND & 15
OPP 18
+4
30.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q2 11:50
3RD & 11
OPP 14
0
30.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Keith Sherald Jr.Similar
Q2 9:11
4TH & 11
OPP 14
+31
25.7%
Alex McNulty 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 8FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:4828% → 30%
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+12
28.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 12 yds to the KntSt 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
29.2%
Joachim Bangda run for 4 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OWN 49
0
29.2%
Joachim Bangda run for no gain to the KntSt 49Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+15
29.1%
CRUM, Dustin sacked for loss of 5 yards to the KENTST44 (ONWUKA, Chibuez), PENALTY UB illegal use of hands (WILSON, Eddie) 15 yards to the UB36, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
29.4%
Joachim Bangda run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
30.1%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Mike Carrigan, broken up by Aapri WashingtonSimilar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+17
29.4%
Joachim Bangda run for 17 yds to the Buff 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
30.1%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 8
OPP 13
-5
30.1%
KENT ST Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 9:32
2ND & 13
OPP 18
+7
29.8%
Xavier Williams run for 7 yds to the Buff 11Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+5
29.6%
Xavier Williams run for 5 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 1
OPP 6
+23
30.2%
Matthew Trickett 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:5572% → 72%
Q2 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
27.8%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
28.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
28.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel Lee, broken up by Elvis HinesSimilar
Q2 4:49
4TH & 12
OWN 23
0
27.8%
Jackson Baltar punt for 43 yds, downed at the KntSt 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0027% → 26%
Q2 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-6
26.8%
Will Matthews run for a loss of 6 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q2 4:39
2ND & 16
OWN 28
+5
26.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q2 4:39
3RD & 11
OWN 33
0
26.4%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q2 4:39
4TH & 11
OWN 33
0
26.4%
Derek Adams punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 15 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
26.1%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 6
OWN 25
+6
25.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 6 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
25.8%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 31Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+5
26.0%
Kyle Vantrease run for 5 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 3:27
3RD & 5
OWN 36
0
26.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Qwuantrezz KnightSimilar
Q2 3:27
4TH & 5
OWN 36
+2
26.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 36 yds , Jamal Parker returns for 2 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:5125% → 24%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-4
24.5%
Dustin Crum sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 26Similar
Q2 1:11
2ND & 14
OWN 26
-8
24.4%
Dustin Crum sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 18Similar
Q2 1:11
3RD & 22
OWN 18
+3
24.0%
Will Matthews run for 3 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q2 0:26
4TH & 19
OWN 21
0
24.3%
Derek Adams punt for 37 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for no gain to the Buff 33 Ron Cook Jr. fumbled, recovered by KntSt Isaac VanceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13FG
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:1628% → 32%
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
28.2%
Will Matthews run for 15 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+2
28.2%
Will Matthews run for 2 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+33
32.3%
Matthew Trickett 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
29.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 15 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+1
30.8%
Xavier Williams run for 1 yd to the KntSt 48Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 9
OWN 48
+3
30.6%
Xavier Williams run for 3 yds to the Buff 49Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 6
OPP 49
-3
30.6%
Dustin Crum sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 3 yards to the KntSt 48Similar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 9
OWN 48
0
28.7%
Derek Adams punt for 45 yds, downed at the Buff 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD
20 plays · 93 yds · 9:1671% → 92%
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
28.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 5
OWN 12
+4
28.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OWN 16
+5
29.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
28.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 12 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+9
28.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 1
OWN 42
+2
27.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
27.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
27.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr.Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+9
27.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
Q3 13:07
4TH & 1
OPP 47
+12
28.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 12 yds to the KntSt 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
26.9%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+5
26.8%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the KntSt 26Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+4
27.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the KntSt 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
26.8%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the KntSt 20Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 20
0
26.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by Jamal ParkerSimilar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 8
OPP 20
+9
27.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the KntSt 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
26.6%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the KntSt 9Similar
Q3 13:07
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
26.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the KntSt 8Similar
Q3 13:07
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+6
26.9%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to NUNN, Antonio, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (PARKER, Jamal) 6 yards to the KENTST2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
7.9%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · -13 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q3 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
12.3%
Will Matthews run for 5 yds to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 5
OWN 39
-10
12.9%
CRUM, Dustin rush for no gain to the KENTST39, out-of-bounds (TERRY, Tim), PENALTY KENTST holding (WARNOCK, Nate) 10 yards to the KENTST29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 15
OWN 29
-5
11.8%
CRUM, Dustin pass complete to PRICE, Kavious for 6 yards to the KENTST35, out-of-bounds, PENALTY KENTST ineligible downfield on pass (GREGOIRE, Adam) 5 yards to the KENTST24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:44
2ND & 20
OWN 24
+1
11.8%
Will Matthews run for 1 yd to the KntSt 25Similar
Q3 3:44
3RD & 19
OWN 25
-4
11.8%
Dustin Crum sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 21Similar
Q3 3:44
4TH & 23
OWN 21
0
11.8%
Derek Adams punt for 42 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17FG
9 plays · 49 yds · 5:0894% → 98%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+25
6.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 25 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
5.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 37Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+1
5.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the KntSt 36Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+16
5.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 16 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
5.2%
Ron Cook Jr. run for 6 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-5
5.2%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Antonio Nunn) to the KntSt 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+5
5.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 14
0
5.3%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the KntSt 14Similar
Q4 11:18
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+31
2.3%
Alex McNulty 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18TD
14 plays · 76 yds · 3:343% → 10%
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
2.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keenan Orr for 7 yds to the KntSt 31Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+7
3.0%
Dustin Crum run for 7 yds to the KntSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
2.9%
Joachim Bangda run for 5 yds to the KntSt 43Similar
Q4 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+2
3.1%
Joachim Bangda run for 2 yds to the KntSt 45Similar
Q4 11:13
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+4
3.0%
Joachim Bangda run for 4 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+6
3.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+12
3.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Ja'Shaun Poke for 12 yds to the Buff 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-2
3.6%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 12
OPP 20
-10
2.8%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 20 yards to the UB0, clock 08:17, PENALTY KENTST holding (JOHNSON, Daniel) 10 yards to the UB30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:17
2ND & 22
OPP 30
+20
2.7%
Xavier Williams run for 20 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 10
+3
3.0%
Dustin Crum run for 3 yds to the Buff 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
9.5%
Xavier Williams run for 7 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 19TD
3 plays · 54 yds · 0:228% → 30%
Q4 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+13
8.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 13 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+41
30.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0081% → 78%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
19.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel LeeSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
19.7%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Ron Cook Jr., broken up by Keith Sherald Jr.Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
21.6%
TEAM punt blocked by Jeremiah Salaam blocked by Jeremiah SalaamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 21TD
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:1931% → 58%
Q4 6:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-4
30.8%
Xavier Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 8Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
30.8%
Dustin Crum run for 3 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
28.3%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Keenan OrrSimilar
Q4 4:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
57.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 2:3751% → 54%
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
48.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
47.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 10 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
45.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 4:52
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+1
43.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 4:52
3RD & 3
OWN 45
0
43.9%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 2:15
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+16
46.0%
Jackson Baltar punt for 41 yds , Jamal Parker returns for 16 yds to the KntSt 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 23FG
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:0456% → 96%
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
55.6%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for a loss of 1 yard to the KntSt 29Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+4
54.0%
Xavier Williams run for 4 yds to the KntSt 33Similar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+7
53.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 7 yds to the KntSt 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
59.2%
Dustin Crum pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+12
57.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keenan Orr for 12 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
61.9%
Will Matthews run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 2:04
2ND & 6
OPP 44
0
62.0%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Mike CarriganSimilar
Q4 2:04
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+17
60.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 17 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+44
95.6%
Matthew Trickett 44 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:52
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+33.9
FG · Q4 0:00
Matthew Trickett 44 yd FG GOOD
+29
TD · Q4 7:12
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 41 yds for a TD (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+22.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com