Try the model
NIU

Northern Illinois 31 at Toledo 28

TOL
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2019 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 2:35 · Eli Peters pass incomplete to Nick Kovacs
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 43Home team on offense+1.0Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.2Pregame prior+5.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:10: Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +19.4 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 13:55: Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +13.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 12:23: Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 13 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +21.4 pts (now 40%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 5:07: Ronnie Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +30.7 pts (now 67%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:41: John Richardson 25 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +37.1 pts (now 94%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 13:39NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    42.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:24TOL 4th & 3 at NIU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    57.0%−0.1
    36% to make
    Punt
    57.0%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:56NIU 4th & 2 at TOL 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    42.9%−0.2
    30% to make
    Punt
    43.0%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:44TOL 4th & 4 at NIU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.7%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    57.6%−0.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    55.9%−1.8
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:35TOL 4th & 5 at NIU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    58.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    57.7%−0.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−0.2
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:16NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 44.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    44.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    42.4%−1.5
    34% to make
    Punt
    42.6%−1.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:16TOL 4th & 3 at NIU 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 51.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    51.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    46.8%−4.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 8:54NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 51.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.7%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:30TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 45, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.1%−1.4
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:12NIU 4th & 13 at NIU 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 57.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.0%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.9%
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:10TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−1.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    22.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 0:56TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 39, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    4.8%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 13:10NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 26, up 14
    Numbers favored punt by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 87.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.3%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    89.3%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:23NIU 4th & 8 at TOL 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 74.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.2%
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.6
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%−0.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 0:41NIU 4th & 1 at TOL 7, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 10.7 ptsKicked a field goal · 54.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%
    70% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.6%−10.7
    91% to make
    Punt
    9.3%−50.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 4 of 4NIU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 5:44TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:35NIU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    42.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 13:16NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    48.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:10NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 1:00NIU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:55TOL Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 12:23TOL Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.5%−0.4
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 5:07TOL Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    48.1%−1.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:2144% → 43%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+1
56.3%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 4
+2
56.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q1 13:39
3RD & 7
OWN 6
0
56.5%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:39
4TH & 7
OWN 6
0
56.6%
Matt Ference punt for 51 yds, downed at the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FUMBLE
8 plays · 40 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
56.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 11 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
56.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 7
OPP 43
0
56.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Dillon ThomasSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+4
56.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 13:24
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+5
56.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 5 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
56.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the NoIll 33Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 9
OPP 33
0
56.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 9
OPP 33
+9
56.7%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the NoIll 19 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Adam Buirge, recovered by NoIll Trayshon Foster , return for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+19
56.6%
Tre Harbison run for 19 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
56.4%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+7
56.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:56
1ST & 10
50
0
56.1%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:56
2ND & 10
50
+8
56.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Jordan Nettles for 8 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 10:56
3RD & 2
OPP 42
0
56.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q1 10:56
4TH & 2
OPP 42
+1
56.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 1 yd to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4TD
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:5257% → 61%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
57.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+23
57.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 23 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+23
57.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 23 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-1
57.9%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 10Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+9
57.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 9 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
57.7%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 4Similar
Q1 5:44
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
61.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Devin Maddox for 4 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:0940% → 45%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.3%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
60.2%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+13
60.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 13 yds to the NoIll 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+10
59.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
59.4%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 47Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 11
OPP 47
+11
59.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
55.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 36 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6DOWNS
7 plays · 25 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
57.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 8 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+12
58.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
59.0%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 2:35
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+5
58.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 2:35
3RD & 5
OPP 40
0
58.8%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Nick KovacsSimilar
Q1 2:35
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
58.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Nick KovacsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4544% → 50%
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+11
55.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 11 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-5
55.1%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (Daniel Crawford) to the NoIll 46Similar
Q1 1:01
1ST & 15
OWN 46
+10
56.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
0
54.9%
Jordan Nettles run for no gain to the Toled 44Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 44
-5
55.2%
BOWERS, Ross pass complete to TUCKER, Cole for 8 yards to the TOLEDO36 (ANDERSON,Tycen), PENALTY NIU illegal shift 5 yards to the TOLEDO49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 49
+9
55.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 9 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+40
49.7%
Marcus Childers run for 40 yds for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8DOWNS
10 plays · 47 yds · 0:0051% → 52%
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
50.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+19
51.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 19 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
52.3%
Eli Peters run for 5 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+4
52.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+10
52.7%
Ronnie Jones run for 10 yds to the NoIll 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:16
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
53.6%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 13:16
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-6
53.5%
Eli Peters sacked by Quintin Wynne for a loss of 6 yards to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 13:16
3RD & 15
OPP 38
+12
51.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 12 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q2 13:16
4TH & 3
OPP 26
-2
51.9%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
48.3%
Tyrice Richie run for 5 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 5
OWN 33
-1
47.7%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 6
OWN 32
0
48.4%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 6
OWN 32
0
49.4%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
10 plays · 23 yds · 0:0047% → 47%
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
47.3%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Reggie Gilliam, broken up by Trayshon FosterSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
47.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 7
OWN 25
+7
46.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Jamal Turner for 7 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
47.7%
PETERS,Eli pass complete to MITCHELL,Bryce for 54 yards to the NIU14 (THOMAS, Dillon), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal touching (MITCHELL,Bryce) 0 yards to the TOLEDO32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
47.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 5
OWN 37
+10
47.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-10
49.4%
Eli Peters sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 10 yards to the Toled 37 Eli Peters fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 7:30
2ND & 20
OWN 37
+8
47.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 8 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 7:30
3RD & 12
OWN 45
0
47.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 7:30
4TH & 12
OWN 45
0
46.7%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 51 yds, downed at the NoIll 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
8 plays · 32 yds · 2:3354% → 57%
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+5
46.3%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 5
OWN 9
+9
46.5%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+21
45.4%
Tre Harbison run for 21 yds to the NoIll 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
43.3%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q2 3:45
2ND & 4
OWN 45
-14
43.2%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete, QB hurry by BOLDEN,Daniel, PENALTY NIU intentional grounding (BOWERS, Ross) 14 yards to the NIU31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:45
3RD & 18
OWN 31
+5
46.2%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q2 1:12
4TH & 13
OWN 36
0
42.9%
Matt Ference punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Devin Maddox at the Toled 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12Uncategorized
4 plays · 15 yds · 0:0043% → 44%
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-8
42.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 2 yds to the Toled 28 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Desmond Phillips) to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 18
OWN 18
+17
42.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 1:06
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+3
44.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
43.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13FUMBLE
8 plays · 61 yds · 0:0043% → 46%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
42.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 27
+11
42.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+17
43.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+17
46.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 17 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
47.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 8 yds to the NoIll 20Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+1
47.3%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd to the NoIll 19Similar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 1
OPP 19
-5
45.9%
Eli Peters run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 12 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by NoIll Marshe TerrySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14TD
14 plays · 88 yds · 6:1560% → 83%
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
39.7%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 7
OWN 15
0
39.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 7
OWN 15
+9
40.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
39.3%
Tre Harbison run for 7 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+12
38.0%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, personal foul (Terrance Taylor) to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+7
37.0%
Jordan Nettles run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 3
50
+2
36.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q3 12:25
3RD & 1
OPP 48
+3
36.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.5%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+15
36.6%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to TUCKER, Cole, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (HOLT,Saeed) 15 yards to the TOLEDO30, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:25
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+6
36.2%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 12:25
2ND & 4
OPP 24
+23
36.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 23 yds to the Toled 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
36.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.7%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q3 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
21.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 6:10
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-3
22.0%
Eli Peters run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 26 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by Toled Eli PetersSimilar
Q3 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
21.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
21.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 16TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:3783% → 97%
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
17.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+43
17.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 43 yds to the Toled 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+2
15.6%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & 8
OPP 20
+2
15.6%
Marcus Childers run for 2 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 4:37
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+10
15.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the Toled 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
15.6%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 6 yds to the Toled 2Similar
Q3 4:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
15.6%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the Toled 1Similar
Q3 1:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
3.4%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 70 yds · 2:016% → 19%
Q3 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
5.6%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Dillon ThomasSimilar
Q3 0:56
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+9
5.5%
Ronnie Jones run for 9 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 0:56
3RD & 1
OWN 39
0
5.7%
Ronnie Jones run for no gain to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 0:56
4TH & 1
OWN 39
+2
5.7%
Ronnie Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+10
5.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 10 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
5.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the NoIll 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
5.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 6
OPP 34
+34
19.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 34 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18DOWNS
6 plays · -8 yds · 0:4588% → 90%
Q4 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
11.8%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 13:55
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
11.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 13:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
9.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan NettlesSimilar
Q4 13:10
4TH & 9
OWN 26
-10
9.8%
Matt Ference run for a loss of 10 yards to the NoIll 17 Matt Ference fumbled, recovered by NoIllSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
2 plays · 17 yds · 0:3719% → 40%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+4
18.5%
Ronnie Jones run for 4 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 6
OPP 13
+13
39.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 13 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 38 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
27.5%
Tre Harbison run for 26 yds to the Toled 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
24.3%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+2
24.0%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+3
24.6%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:23
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+1
24.1%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the Toled 38Similar
Q4 12:23
2ND & 9
OPP 38
+1
24.1%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 37Similar
Q4 12:23
3RD & 8
OPP 37
0
24.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 8
OPP 37
0
26.8%
Ross Bowers punt for 28 yds, downed at the Toled 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
10 plays · 91 yds · 3:3827% → 67%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 9
0
27.2%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+12
27.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 12 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
27.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 6
OWN 25
0
28.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Jalen McKieSimilar
Q4 8:45
3RD & 6
OWN 25
+11
26.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+14
29.0%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 14 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
50
+3
32.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+37
33.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 37 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
36.1%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
66.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22FG
18 plays · 68 yds · 4:2648% → 94%
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
52.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+7
52.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 7 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
50.0%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
47.7%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+15
50.2%
BOWERS, Ross pass incomplete to TUCKER, Cole, PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (ANDERSON,Tycen) 15 yards to the TOLEDO46, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
45.8%
Tre Harbison run for 11 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
43.9%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q4 5:07
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+4
43.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 4 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 5:07
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+11
45.8%
Marcus Childers run for 11 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
43.7%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q4 0:55
2ND & 7
OPP 13
+3
37.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
39.0%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q4 0:41
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+25
6.4%
John Richardson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 44 yds · 0:1122% → 34%
Q4 0:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
21.8%
Eli Peters pass complete to Drew Rosi for 9 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+23
21.6%
Eli Peters run for 23 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+11
25.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 11 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:30
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+6
30.4%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 0:30
2ND & 4
OPP 26
-5
34.4%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Bryce Mitchell) to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:41
John Richardson 25 yd FG GOOD
-37.1
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-34.4
TD · Q4 5:07
Ronnie Jones run for 7 yds for a TD (Evan Davis KICK)
+30.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com