2019 · Week 12 · Nov 13, 2019 · Yager Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Trevon Raymore run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 46
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- FG · Q1 8:22: Sam Sloman 27 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.4 pts (now 14%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- FG · Q1 6:13: Nate Needham 26 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 15%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 11:25: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 35 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +3.9 pts (now 90%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:31: Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +4.9 pts (now 95%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
- TD · Q2 3:42: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 60 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +2.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 5BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 11
- Q1 13:39BGSU 4th & 9 at M-OH 33, tiedClose callWent for it · 13.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call13.6%−<0.132% to convertField goal13.6%49% to makePunt13.5%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 13:33BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 20, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.3% before the snapGo for it13.2%−0.121% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.3%average punt
- Q1 8:22M-OH 4th & 7 at BGSU 9, up 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.2% before the snapGo for it86.1%−0.130% to convertField goalTheir call86.2%89% to makePunt85.4%−0.7average punt
- Q1 6:13BGSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 8, down 10Close callKicked a field goal · 14.5% before the snapGo for it14.5%47% to convertField goalTheir call14.4%−0.190% to makePunt13.4%−1.2average punt
- Q1 6:08M-OH 4th & 15 at M-OH 16, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.5% before the snapGo for it85.2%−0.416% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.6%average punt
- Q2 14:55BGSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 24, down 7Close callKicked a field goal · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.8%52% to convertField goalTheir call15.6%−0.268% to makePunt13.9%−1.9average punt
- Q2 13:12BGSU 4th & 12 at M-OH 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.4% before the snapGo for it14.8%−0.621% to convertField goalTheir call15.4%79% to makePunt13.3%−2.1average punt
- Q2 4:19BGSU 4th & 6 at M-OH 23, down 21Close callWent for it · 5.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.6%−0.139% to convertField goal5.7%70% to makePunt3.4%−2.3average punt
- Q2 3:05BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 25, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.9% before the snapGo for it1.0%−0.928% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.9%average punt
- Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 33, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.2%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q3 14:24M-OH 4th & 1 at M-OH 46, up 34Close callPunted · 98.9% before the snapGo for it98.9%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.7%−0.1average punt
- Q3 11:15BGSU 4th & 8 at BGSU 40, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.7% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.134% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 14 at M-OH 30, down 41Close callWent for it · 0.2% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.1%−0.118% to convertField goal0.2%56% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 14:52M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 26, up 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snapGo for it99.8%−<0.139% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 12:18BGSU 4th & 3 at M-OH 43, down 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call0.2%52% to convertField goal0.0%−0.128% to makePunt0.1%−0.1average punt
- Q4 10:31M-OH 4th & 11 at BGSU 31, up 41Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.8%−0.126% to convertField goal99.9%54% to makePunt99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 13:39M-OH Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call86.6%97% to makeGo for two86.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 11:25M-OH Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call88.2%97% to makeGo for two88.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:31M-OH Touchdown, up 20 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call94.6%97% to makeGo for two94.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 3:42M-OH Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.2%97% to makeGo for two99.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:40M-OH Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 5:58M-OH Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.8%97% to makeGo for two99.8%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartM-OHDrive 1INT2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
86.7%
Brett Gabbert pass intercepted Brandon Perce return for 1 yd to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2INT TD4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1313% → 14%
Q1 13:39
4TH & 9
OPP 33
+79
86.5%
Grant Loy pass intercepted for a TD Mike Brown return for 79 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0014% → 13%
Q1 13:33
4TH & 12
OWN 20
+14
86.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 44 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 14 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4FG13 plays · 41 yds · 3:5287% → 86%
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
50
+5
86.5%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside (Walter Haire) to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
86.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 6 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q1 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
86.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Homer, broken up by Kholbe ColemanSimilar
Q1 12:14
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
86.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jack Sorenson, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5FG8 plays · 60 yds · 2:0214% → 15%
M-OHDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 6:08
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-10
85.9%
SHELTON, Tyre rush for 3 yards to the MIAMI24 (LAUTANEN, Nico), PENALTY MIAMI holding (MEHELIC, Adam) 10 yards to the MIAMI11, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 15
OWN 16
+8
85.6%
Kyle Kramer punt for 43 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 8 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7MISSED FG10 plays · 27 yds · 4:1815% → 15%
Q1 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
85.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 2 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8FUMBLE3 plays · -9 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q2 14:55
3RD & 8
OWN 27
-9
85.2%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 16 Brett Gabbert fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Chris Oliver , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9MISSED FG4 plays · -2 yds · 0:5216% → 15%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD5 plays · 80 yds · 1:4785% → 90%
Q2 13:12
2ND & 7
OWN 34
+12
85.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Nick Manson for 12 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+19
85.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 19 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:25
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
89.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 35 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT7 plays · 11 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
M-OHDrive 12TD5 plays · 48 yds · 1:3490% → 95%
Q2 9:05
2ND & 4
OPP 42
+17
90.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 17 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+24
90.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 24 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:31
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13DOWNS9 plays · 52 yds · 3:126% → 6%
M-OHDrive 14TD2 plays · 77 yds · 0:2996% → 98%
BGSUDrive 15PUNT6 plays · 0 yds · 0:371% → 1%
Q2 3:05
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.8%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Austin Dorris BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16TD1 play · 59 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17END OF HALF5 plays · 13 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
98.9%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 16 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:15
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+9
99.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 9 yds to the BwGrn 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:15
2ND & 8
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 40
0
99.3%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the BwGrn 40 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD5 plays · 68 yds · 2:46100% → 100%
BGSUDrive 22INT15 plays · 45 yds · 5:580% → 0%
Q3 5:58
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+6
99.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 6 yds to the BwGrn 30Similar
Q3 5:58
3RD & 7
OWN 39
+8
99.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Jake Rogers for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:58
2ND & 10
OWN 47
+27
99.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 27 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 4
OPP 20
-8
99.8%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 18 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (RB Marlow III) to the MiaOh 28Similar
Q3 1:37
3RD & 12
OPP 28
-2
99.8%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 30Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 30
+9
99.8%
Grant Loy pass intercepted Travion Banks return for 9 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 14:52
4TH & 6
OWN 26
+17
99.8%
Kyle Kramer punt for 41 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 17 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 12:18
3RD & 6
OPP 46
+3
99.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Christian Sims for 3 yds to the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25DOWNS10 plays · 30 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 10:31
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+13
99.9%
Jackson Williamson pass complete to Nick Manson for 13 yds to the BwGrn 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26END OF GAME6 plays · 19 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:31
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined (Sam Sloman KICK)
+4.9
TD · Q2 11:25
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 35 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK)
+3.9
TD · Q2 3:42
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 60 yds for a TD (Sam Sloman KICK)
+2.3