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NIU

Northern Illinois 10 at Central Michigan 48

CMU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:28 · Matt Ference punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 34
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense+17.3Score differential+11.1Blowout margin+0.6Garbage-time factor+3.2Pregame prior−4.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 6:34: Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +5.7 pts (now 53%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:51: Kobe Lewis run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +9.7 pts (now 62%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. FG · Q2 12:00: Ryan Tice 32 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +10.2 pts (now 73%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 10:48: Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +13.1 pts (now 41%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 4:59: Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +14.9 pts (now 86%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 15, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:37NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:51NIU 4th & 4 at CMU 15, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 41.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    40.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    36.3%−4.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00NIU 4th & 30 at NIU 5, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.8%−5.4
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.2%
    average punt
  5. Q2 12:00CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 14, up 18
    Close callKicked a field goal · 69.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    69.0%−0.1
    84% to make
    Punt
    62.0%−7.0
    average punt
  6. Q2 10:48CMU 4th & 11 at CMU 46, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    65.5%−1.4
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:41NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 25, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.7%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    32.6%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:28NIU 4th & 17 at NIU 18, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.3%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.9%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:49NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 32, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−1.6
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 23, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.9%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.0%
    70% to make
    Punt
    94.6%−2.4
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:32NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 30, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.9%−0.3
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:52CMU 4th & 4 at NIU 25, up 28
    Close callKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.9%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%−0.1
    66% to make
    Punt
    97.3%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 5:12CMU 4th & 5 at NIU 11, up 28
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.2%
    87% to make
    Punt
    98.2%−1.0
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:13CMU 4th & 7 at NIU 13, up 35
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.8%
    85% to make
    Punt
    99.3%−0.4
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:13NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 34, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 10:13NIU 4th & 7 at NIU 49, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:57CMU 4th & 6 at NIU 9, up 38
    Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%
    89% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6NIU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 10:37CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:34CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:51CMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 10:48NIU Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:59CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:49CMU Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:20CMU Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 8
0
42.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 8
-1
42.2%
Marcus Childers run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 7Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 7
+8
42.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 8 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
42.2%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2TD
7 plays · 61 yds · 2:4843% → 46%
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+16
42.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 16 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
42.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kumehnnu GwillySimilar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+7
42.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q1 13:25
3RD & 3
OPP 38
+20
42.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 20 yds to the NoIll 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:25
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
42.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+1
42.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd to the NoIll 14Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 6
OPP 14
+14
45.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 10:37
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
45.0%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q1 10:37
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-1
44.9%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 28Similar
Q1 10:37
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+3
45.1%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q1 10:37
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
45.2%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4TD
6 plays · 78 yds · 2:0247% → 53%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+3
46.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+15
46.6%
Tyrone Scott run for 15 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+13
47.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 13 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+4
47.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+40
47.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 40 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
52.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 3:4349% → 49%
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
51.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 16 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+17
51.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 17 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+2
50.6%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the CMich 40Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+19
50.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 19 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:34
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+1
50.0%
Marcus Jones run for 1 yd to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 6:34
2ND & 9
OPP 20
0
50.0%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the CMich 20Similar
Q1 6:34
3RD & 9
OPP 20
+5
50.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 5 yds to the CMich 15Similar
Q1 2:51
4TH & 4
OPP 15
+33
51.0%
John Richardson 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0052% → 62%
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
51.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+12
52.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 12 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:51
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
52.7%
Quinten Dormady run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 2:51
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+37
52.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 37 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+16
62.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
5 plays · -20 yds · 0:5138% → 36%
Q1 0:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
61.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by George DouglasSimilar
Q1 0:51
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
61.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tre HarbisonSimilar
Q1 0:51
3RD & 10
OWN 25
-13
61.8%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 13 yards to the NoIll 5 Ross Bowers fumbled, forced by LaQuan Johnson, recovered by NoIllSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 30
OWN 5
0
63.6%
Matt Ference punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8FG
6 plays · 22 yds · 2:5564% → 73%
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
63.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+10
63.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 10 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+5
63.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q2 14:55
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-3
63.2%
Tommy Lazzaro run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 12:00
4TH & 4
OPP 14
+32
73.4%
Ryan Tice 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:1227% → 41%
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
73.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the NoIll 33Similar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+58
72.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 49 yds to the CENTMICH 18 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal helmet contact (TEAM) to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 1
OPP 9
+9
59.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 21 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+15
64.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 15 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-2
64.9%
DORMADY, Q. pass complete to WARD, Jonathan for 39 yards to the NIU14, out-of-bounds (FOSTER, Traysho), PENALTY CMU holding (SCOTT, Tyrone) 2 yards to the CMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:48
1ST & 12
OWN 45
0
64.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 10:48
2ND & 12
OWN 45
+1
64.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 1 yd to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 10:48
3RD & 11
OWN 46
0
63.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Jonathan Ward, broken up by Jordan ColeSimilar
Q2 10:48
4TH & 11
OWN 46
0
62.7%
Brady Buell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q2 8:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
63.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q2 8:41
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+1
63.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 1 yd to the NoIll 25Similar
Q2 8:41
3RD & 6
OWN 25
0
64.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q2 8:41
4TH & 6
OWN 25
+1
64.5%
Matt Ference punt for 53 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 1 yd to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
7 plays · 77 yds · 2:3066% → 86%
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
66.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 7:29
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+3
66.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q2 7:29
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+7
65.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+19
66.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 19 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:38
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
70.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Drayton Law for 7 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+39
85.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3118% → 15%
Q2 4:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-11
81.8%
Ross Bowers sacked by LaQuan Johnson for a loss of 11 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q2 4:59
2ND & 21
OWN 14
+4
82.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Michael Love for 4 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q2 3:28
3RD & 17
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel Crawford, broken up by Willie ReidSimilar
Q2 3:28
4TH & 17
OWN 18
0
84.8%
Matt Ference punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
9 plays · 66 yds · 2:2688% → 97%
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Kalil Pimpleton pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 10
OWN 34
0
87.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+29
87.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 29 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
87.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 3:15
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+2
88.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 2
OPP 29
+12
87.9%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 12 yds to the NoIll 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
88.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+16
96.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 16 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 0:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q2 0:49
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+7
97.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 7 yds to the NoIll 32Similar
Q2 0:49
3RD & 3
OWN 32
0
96.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Da'Quaun JamisonSimilar
Q2 0:49
4TH & 3
OWN 32
+9
96.7%
Matt Ference punt for 44 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 9 yds to the CMich 41 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (14 Yards) to the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q2 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
96.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17MISSED FG
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2097% → 97%
Q3 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
97.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 14:52
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
97.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 14:52
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
97.1%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Jalen McKieSimilar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+42
97.3%
Ryan Tice 42 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 18INT
9 plays · 21 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
97.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 21Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+4
97.4%
Jordan Nettles run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 8
OWN 25
+5
97.4%
Ross Bowers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 3
OWN 30
+6
96.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Michael Love for 6 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+2
97.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 38Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 38
+10
97.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 10 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-4
97.2%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 44Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 14
OWN 44
0
97.4%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Michael Love, broken up by Troy BrownSimilar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 14
OWN 44
+22
97.4%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Michael Oliver return for 22 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19MISSED FG
4 plays · 6 yds · 5:4098% → 99%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
97.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+3
97.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 7
OPP 28
+3
97.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 7:52
4TH & 4
OPP 25
+43
98.9%
Ryan Tice 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 20INT
3 plays · 44 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+33
98.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 18 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Mohamed Diallo) to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
98.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 11 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+32
98.6%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Gage Kreski return for 32 yds to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21MISSED FG
5 plays · 41 yds · 2:0699% → 99%
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+36
99.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 36 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+4
99.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the NoIll 12Similar
Q3 7:18
2ND & 6
OPP 12
0
99.2%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the NoIll 12Similar
Q3 7:18
3RD & 6
OPP 12
+1
99.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 11Similar
Q3 5:12
4TH & 5
OPP 11
+29
99.3%
Ryan Tice 29 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 22INT
5 plays · 42 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+6
99.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 5:12
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+34
99.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 34 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+2
99.1%
Marcus Jones run for 2 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 5:12
2ND & 8
OPP 38
+16
99.1%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Montrae Braswell return for 16 yds to the CMich 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23TD
9 plays · 53 yds · 4:32100% → 100%
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
99.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+1
99.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the NoIll 48Similar
Q3 3:52
3RD & 5
OPP 48
+7
99.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 7 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
99.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 5 yds to the NoIll 36Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 36
+16
99.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 16 yds to the NoIll 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+5
99.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 3:52
2ND & 5
OPP 15
0
99.5%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
+12
99.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds to the NoIll 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:20
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 24FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 14:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
99.7%
Jordan Nettles run for no gain to the NoIll 27 Jordan Nettles fumbled, forced by Gage Kreski, recovered by CMich Sean AdesanyaSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 3:56100% → 100%
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+3
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 7
OPP 24
+6
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 1
OPP 18
+2
99.7%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 2 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:09
1ST & 10
OPP 16
-2
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 18Similar
Q4 14:09
2ND & 12
OPP 18
+3
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q4 14:09
3RD & 9
OPP 15
+2
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 7
OPP 13
+31
99.8%
Ryan Tice 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 26PUNT
11 plays · 24 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
99.9%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
99.9%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+1
99.8%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+11
99.9%
Tre Harbison run for 11 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
99.9%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 48Similar
Q4 10:13
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 10:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+5
99.9%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 2
OPP 46
-5
99.8%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 10:13
4TH & 7
OWN 49
+4
99.9%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds , Brandon Brown returns for 4 yds to the CMich 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27DOWNS
8 plays · 83 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+12
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 12 yds to the CMich 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+4
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 6
OWN 25
-13
99.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (Derek Smith) to the CMich 12Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 19
OWN 12
+75
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 75 yds to the NoIll 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
99.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the NoIll 12Similar
Q4 4:57
2ND & 9
OPP 12
-2
99.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 14Similar
Q4 4:57
3RD & 11
OPP 14
+5
99.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 5 yds to the NoIll 9Similar
Q4 4:57
4TH & 6
OPP 9
+1
99.9%
Kumehnnu Gwilly run for 1 yd to the NoIll 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 28END OF GAME
2 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+3
100.0%
Anthony Thompson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 11Similar
Q4 1:17
2ND & 7
OWN 11
+2
100.0%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:59
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+14.9
TD · Q2 10:48
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 9 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
-13.1
FG · Q2 12:00
Ryan Tice 32 yd FG GOOD
+10.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com