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BUF

Buffalo 43 at Eastern Michigan 14

EMU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Rynearson Stadium
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Win probability · EMU
modelEMU aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playEMU scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDSAFETYTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 3:49 · Jake Julien punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remainingBlowout margin
+57.0+28.50−28.5−57.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 78Home team on offense−11.3Score differential−6.1Garbage-time factor−3.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.5Blowout margin−1.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Kevin Marks run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.5 pts (now 53%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 7:33: Kyle Vantrease run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +9.1 pts (now 60%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 3:49: Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +8.3 pts (now 71%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:09: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +8.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:38: Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +4.0 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
EMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8
  1. Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 9 at EMU 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.6%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:32BUF 4th & 8 at EMU 39, tied
    Close callPunted · 52.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.1%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    52.1%−<0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    52.1%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:59BUF 4th & 2 at EMU 2, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    48.0%−0.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    46.6%−1.7
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:09BUF 4th & 2 at EMU 28, down 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 47.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    47.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    47.0%−0.9
    60% to make
    Punt
    43.4%−4.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:41EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 2
    Close callWent for it · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.3%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    48.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:33BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 16, up 2
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 53.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    53.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    51.0%−2.1
    81% to make
    Punt
    45.0%−8.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:33EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 9
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.1%−0.4
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:49EMU 4th & 6 at EMU 29, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.1%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 48, up 22
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.2 ptsPunted · 85.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%−2.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 12:11EMU 4th & 10 at EMU 20, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.5%−1.9
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:36BUF 4th & 11 at BUF 15, up 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−2.0
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  12. Q3 7:13EMU 4th & 8 at BUF 19, down 22
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.5 ptsWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.0%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    8.5%
    77% to make
    Punt
    -1.4%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:42BUF 4th & 2 at EMU 10, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.3%
    55% to convert
    Field goal
    99.2%−0.1
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.7%−0.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 6:19BUF 4th & 1 at EMU 1, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    99.5%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    99.0%−0.6
    average punt
  15. Q4 1:30EMU 4th & 1 at BUF 1, down 36
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%−<0.1
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
EMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2BUF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 6:59EMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:41BUF Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:33BUF Touchdown, up 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:49BUF Touchdown, up 15 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:09BUF Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 0:38BUF Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:19BUF Touchdown, up 35 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:30EMU Touchdown, down 30 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.1%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
EMUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
49.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Bryson Cannon for 3 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
49.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
49.8%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Bryson Cannon, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
49.8%
Jake Julien punt for 50 yds, downed at the Buff 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2PUNT
12 plays · 37 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+4
50.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 6
OWN 28
+7
50.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
50.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+5
49.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 5 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
49.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 49Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+3
49.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+5
49.9%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
49.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the EMich 35Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 4
OPP 35
-10
49.8%
MARKS, Kevin rush for 7 yards to the EMU28 (SCOTT, Woo), PENALTY UB holding (KSIEZARCZYK, Evin) 10 yards to the EMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:32
2ND & 14
OPP 45
0
49.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:32
3RD & 14
OPP 45
+6
50.0%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q1 13:32
4TH & 8
OPP 39
0
50.0%
Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, downed at the EMich 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 3TD
4 plays · 94 yds · 1:2151% → 54%
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+10
50.7%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 10 yds to the EMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
50.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Dylan Drummond for 4 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q1 8:20
2ND & 6
OWN 20
0
50.9%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+80
53.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 80 yds for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+42
54.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 42 yds to the EMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
52.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 5
OPP 28
0
52.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Jerodd VinesSimilar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 5
OPP 28
+8
53.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+7
52.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the EMich 13Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & 3
OPP 13
+1
52.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the EMich 12Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+2
53.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the EMich 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
52.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the EMich 8Similar
Q1 6:59
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
52.8%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the EMich 6Similar
Q1 6:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
53.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 4 yds to the EMich 2Similar
Q1 6:59
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
53.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd to the EMich 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5SF
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:4657% → 53%
Q1 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
56.7%
Shaq Vann run for no gain to the EMich 1Similar
Q1 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 1
0
56.6%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Line LatuSimilar
Q1 1:01
3RD & 10
OWN 1
-1
52.9%
Mike Glass III sacked by Tyrece Woods Jr. and Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 1 yard for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
14 plays · 61 yds · 5:1747% → 53%
Q1 0:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
53.3%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 0:58
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+3
52.4%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
50
+4
52.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the EMich 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+10
52.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+4
52.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 32
0
51.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 13:09
3RD & 6
OPP 32
+4
55.0%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the EMich 28Similar
Q2 13:09
4TH & 2
OPP 28
+8
55.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds to the EMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:09
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+1
53.8%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the EMich 19Similar
Q2 13:09
2ND & 9
OPP 19
+10
53.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 10 yds to the EMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
47.2%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
51.1%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q2 10:41
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
51.0%
Mike Glass III run for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 10:41
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
50.6%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew SextonSimilar
Q2 10:41
4TH & 6
OWN 29
-4
49.8%
Jake Julien sacked by Max Michel for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 25 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jake Julien) to the EMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 25 yds · 2:0453% → 60%
Q2 9:37
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+5
46.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 9:37
2ND & 5
OPP 20
0
46.8%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the EMich 20Similar
Q2 9:37
3RD & 5
OPP 20
+4
47.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the EMich 16Similar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+16
39.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0043% → 42%
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
42.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Hassan Beydoun for 4 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 7:33
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
42.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Quian Williams, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 7:33
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
42.3%
Preston Hutchinson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:33
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+15
41.6%
Jake Julien punt for 47 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
8 plays · 61 yds · 2:4361% → 71%
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+23
38.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 23 yds to the EMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
38.0%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+13
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 13 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 6:32
2ND & 10
OPP 17
0
37.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel LeeSimilar
Q2 6:32
3RD & 10
OPP 17
+15
38.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 15 yds to the EMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the EMich 1Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q2 3:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Thomas Odukoya for 2 yds to the EMich 27Similar
Q2 3:49
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
32.9%
Dylan Drummond run for 2 yds to the EMich 29Similar
Q2 3:49
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
32.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Dylan DrummondSimilar
Q2 3:49
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
32.4%
Jake Julien punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 57 yds · 2:2871% → 88%
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
29.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 44Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+15
29.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the EMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:37
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-3
28.5%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 44Similar
Q2 2:37
2ND & 13
OPP 44
+6
28.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the EMich 38Similar
Q2 2:37
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+36
28.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 33 yds to the EMich 5 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, personal foul (Mikey Haney) to the EMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
21.9%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Terry Myrick for a loss of 8 yards to the EMich 10Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
12.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 4 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 0:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+4
21.3%
Shaq Vann run for 4 yds to the EMich 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 0:0085% → 84%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
15.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
14.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+4
14.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 46
+2
15.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 48
0
16.1%
Jackson Baltar punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 12:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
16.8%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Taylor Riggins and Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 3 yards to the EMich 17Similar
Q3 12:11
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+3
16.6%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds to the EMich 20Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 10
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Arthur Jackson III, broken up by Roy BakerSimilar
Q3 12:11
4TH & 10
OWN 20
0
16.5%
Jake Julien punt for 64 yds, downed at the Buff 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q3 10:36
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+3
10.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 10:36
2ND & 7
OWN 19
-4
10.4%
Kyle Vantrease run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 10:36
3RD & 11
OWN 15
0
10.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Jake Molinich, broken up by Brody HoyingSimilar
Q3 10:36
4TH & 11
OWN 15
-2
10.9%
Jackson Baltar punt for 42 yds , Dylan Drummond returns for a loss of 2 yards to the EMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 40 yds · 1:5212% → 8%
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+38
11.8%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 38 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-5
13.4%
EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, false start (Line Latu) to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 9:05
1ST & 15
OPP 26
+5
13.0%
Shaq Vann run for 5 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
13.3%
Preston Hutchinson run for no gain to the Buff 21 Preston Hutchinson fumbled, recovered by EMich Brian DooleySimilar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+2
8.7%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 2 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 8
OPP 19
0
8.4%
Preston Hutchinson pass incomplete to Gunnar Oakes, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18TD
11 plays · 81 yds · 5:4795% → 99%
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
5.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 4 yds to the Buff 23Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+4
5.5%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q3 6:25
3RD & 2
OPP 0
+4
5.0%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 31 for a 1ST down EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the Buff 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
5.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+23
5.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 23 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
5.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the EMich 39Similar
Q3 6:25
2ND & 3
OPP 39
+3
4.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+19
5.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 19 yds to the EMich 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+11
4.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
4.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 1Similar
Q3 0:38
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19INT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:341% → 1%
Q3 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
1.1%
Dylan Drummond run for 2 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 26
0
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Mathew Sexton for no gain Mathew Sexton fumbled, recovered by EMich Brian DooleySimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 23
+10
1.0%
Preston Hutchinson pass intercepted Aapri Washington return for 10 yds to the EMich 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20TD
14 plays · 39 yds · 7:4899% → 100%
Q4 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
0.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 36Similar
Q4 14:07
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+8
0.7%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the EMich 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+2
0.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the EMich 26Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 8
OPP 26
+3
0.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 23Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 5
OPP 23
+5
0.5%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the EMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
0
0.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 18
+3
0.5%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the EMich 15Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & 7
OPP 15
+5
0.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the EMich 10Similar
Q4 12:42
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+4
0.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:42
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
0.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the EMich 3Similar
Q4 12:42
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
0.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the EMich 2Similar
Q4 12:42
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
0.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the EMich 1Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:490% → 0%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Tyrece Woods Jr. for a loss of 4 yards to the EMich 21Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+11
0.1%
Shaq Vann run for 11 yds to the EMich 32Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+15
0.2%
HUTCHINSON, P. pass incomplete to DAUGHERTY, Eddie, PENALTY UB personal foul (ABBAS, Ali) 15 yards to the EMU47, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+32
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for 32 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-7
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson sacked by Frendy Darelus for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 28Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 17
OPP 28
+10
0.2%
Shaq Vann run for 10 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 7
OPP 18
+9
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Buff 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson run for 2 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 6:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Eddie Daugherty for no gain to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 6:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
0.2%
Preston Hutchinson pass complete to Shaq Vann for 6 yds to the Buff 1Similar
Q4 1:30
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
0.1%
Preston Hutchinson run for 1 yd for a TD (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:29
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-2
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 19Similar
Q4 1:29
2ND & 12
OWN 19
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 1:29
3RD & 13
OWN 18
-1
0.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:33
Kyle Vantrease run for 16 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-9.1
TD · Q2 0:09
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds for a TD (Alex McNulty KICK)
-8.7
TD · Q2 3:49
Kyle Vantrease run for 1 yd for a TD (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED)
-8.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com