Try the model
AKR

Akron 6 at Bowling Green 35

BGSU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 8:56 · Jonah Wieland punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BOWLGREEN 41 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the Akron 44
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorBlowout margin
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 166Home team on offense+35.6Score differential+30.9Garbage-time factor+10.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+5.4Pregame prior+0.6Blowout margin+16.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 3:19: Andrew Clair run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +3.6 pts (now 58%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 8:08: Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +6.5 pts (now 68%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 6:46: Grant Loy run for 6 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 5:23: Bryson Denley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +7.7 pts (now 96%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:07: Andrew Clair run for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.6 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 10AKR made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 10:19AKR 4th & 9 at BGSU 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 38.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    38.3%
    79% to make
    Punt
    37.7%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:19BGSU 4th & 23 at BGSU 42, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 61.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.0%−0.3
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    61.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:10AKR 4th & 11 at BGSU 17, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.8%−0.3
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.1%
    80% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−1.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:08AKR 4th & 19 at AKR 30, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−0.9
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.9%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:59BGSU 4th & 19 at BGSU 36, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.1%−0.8
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    61.9%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 32, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:06BGSU 4th & 7 at AKR 37, up 1
    Close callPunted · 62.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    62.7%−0.2
    40% to make
    PuntTheir call
    62.6%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:24AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 37, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.4%−0.4
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:53BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 18, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−0.6
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:47AKR 4th & 20 at AKR 39, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.2
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:27BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 32, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 9 at AKR 22, up 15
    Close callWent for it · 82.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    82.2%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    82.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.9%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 8:55AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 27, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.7%−0.5
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.3%
    average punt
  14. Q3 7:38BGSU 4th & 12 at BGSU 43, up 15
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−2.0
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.4%
    average punt
  15. Q3 5:15AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 41, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.5%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.5%
    average punt
  16. Q3 4:03BGSU 4th & 5 at BGSU 36, up 22
    Close callWent for it · 96.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    96.4%−0.2
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    96.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 4 at BGSU 25, down 22
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    2.1%−0.3
    66% to make
    Punt
    -0.8%−3.2
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:56AKR 4th & 7 at AKR 29, down 29
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  19. Q4 8:00BGSU 4th & 8 at AKR 42, up 29
    Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  20. Q4 3:49BGSU 4th & 3 at AKR 23, up 29
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    99.9%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    99.9%−<0.1
    70% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 3:19BGSU Touchdown, tied before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 8:08BGSU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:46BGSU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 5:23BGSU Touchdown, up 21 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 9:07BGSU Touchdown, up 28 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1FG
13 plays · 53 yds · 4:4146% → 46%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
54.3%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Akron 29 AKRON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+6
54.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for 6 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+10
54.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 10 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
54.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Davin WilsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
+5
54.3%
Michael Mathison run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
50
+18
54.3%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the BOWLGREEN 47 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+4
54.3%
Michiah Burton run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 28
+9
54.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 9 yds to the BwGrn 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-3
54.3%
Michiah Burton run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 22Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 22
0
54.3%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OPP 22
+4
54.3%
Kato Nelson run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 9
OPP 18
+35
54.2%
Cory Smigel 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2DOWNS
9 plays · -10 yds · 0:0055% → 54%
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
54.8%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
54.8%
RB Marlow III run for 9 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-5
54.9%
LOY, Grant rush for 1 yard to the AKRON44 (LAKO,JOHN), PENALTY BGSU illegal formation 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
1ST & 15
50
+1
54.6%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 1 yd to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 10:19
2ND & 14
OPP 49
0
54.6%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 14
OWN 0
0
54.0%
LOY, Grant pass incomplete, PENALTY BGSU intentional grounding off-setting, PENALTY AKRON offside defense off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:19
3RD & 14
OPP 49
-9
54.3%
Grant Loy sacked by Bubba Arslanian for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 42 Grant Loy fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 10:19
4TH & 23
OWN 42
-8
54.1%
Matt Naranjo run for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 1:5047% → 47%
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
53.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 7 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+11
53.4%
Kato Nelson run for 11 yds to the BwGrn 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
53.4%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q1 8:00
2ND & 8
OPP 14
-3
53.4%
Kato Nelson sacked by Nico Lautanen and Walter Haire for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 17Similar
Q1 8:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
0
53.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 11
OPP 17
+35
53.0%
Cory Smigel 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q1 6:10
1ST & GOAL
OWN 35
+15
53.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 2:4753% → 58%
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+8
52.9%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 2
OWN 36
0
53.6%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+6
53.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 6 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+2
53.6%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q1 6:06
2ND & 8
OWN 44
0
53.6%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:06
3RD & 8
OWN 44
+9
53.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Austin Dorris for 9 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+44
54.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 44 yds to the Akron 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
54.5%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for no gain to the AKRON3 (LAKO,JOHN), PENALTY AKRON substitution infraction 1 yards to the AKRON2, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.0%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · -9 yds · 0:0045% → 43%
Q1 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
55.5%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:08
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-9
55.7%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 9 yards to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 3:08
3RD & 19
OWN 30
0
56.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 19
OWN 30
0
57.2%
Jonah Wieland punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -9 yds · 0:0058% → 56%
Q1 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
57.5%
Bryson Denley run for 6 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 4
OPP 49
-9
57.8%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 48 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 13
OWN 42
-1
56.7%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 14
OWN 41
-5
56.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q1 1:59
3RD & 19
OWN 36
0
55.9%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q1 1:59
4TH & 19
OWN 36
0
55.5%
Matt Naranjo punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:3444% → 43%
Q1 0:34
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-1
56.4%
Kato Nelson sacked by Brandon Perce and David Konowalski for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 26
+6
56.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 32
0
56.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael Mathison, broken up by Davin WilsonSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 32
+1
57.5%
Jonah Wieland punt for 39 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 3:2357% → 59%
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+16
56.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Andrew Clair for 16 yds to the BwGrn 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+4
58.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to RB Marlow III for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 6
50
+2
58.3%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 4
OPP 48
+8
58.0%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:29
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
58.5%
Bryson Denley run for 5 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 14:29
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+1
58.8%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 14:29
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-3
58.2%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 7
OPP 37
0
58.8%
Matt Naranjo punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9INT
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 11:01
1ST & 10
OWN 9
-1
58.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 8Similar
Q2 11:01
2ND & 11
OWN 8
+7
58.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 7 yds to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 11:01
3RD & 4
OWN 15
+5
58.3%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Davin Wilson return for 5 yds to the Akron 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10TD
5 plays · 20 yds · 1:2262% → 68%
Q2 9:30
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
61.5%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+10
61.5%
Andrew Clair run for 10 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
61.5%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the Akron 5Similar
Q2 9:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
61.5%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the Akron 2Similar
Q2 8:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
68.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11INT
3 plays · -1 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q2 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
66.2%
Brandon Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 34Similar
Q2 8:08
2ND & 11
OWN 34
+33
66.7%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Karl Brooks return for 33 yds to the Akron 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12TD
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:3669% → 77%
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
69.2%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q2 6:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
76.5%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:1926% → 25%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+2
73.8%
Brandon Lee run for 2 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 8
OWN 37
+5
73.6%
Brandon Lee run for 5 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q2 5:24
3RD & 3
OWN 42
-5
73.5%
Kato Nelson sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 37Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
75.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 1:4277% → 77%
Q2 4:35
1ST & 10
OWN 19
-2
77.2%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 17 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 4:35
2ND & 12
OWN 17
-1
76.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 4:35
3RD & 13
OWN 16
+2
76.3%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q2 2:53
4TH & 11
OWN 18
0
77.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q2 2:47
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-1
75.9%
Brandon Lee run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 48Similar
Q2 2:47
2ND & 11
OWN 48
-6
76.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 9 yds to the BOWLGREEN 43 AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-15 Yards) to the Akron 42Similar
Q2 2:47
3RD & 17
OWN 42
-3
78.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by Karl Brooks and David Konowalski for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 39Similar
Q2 2:47
4TH & 20
OWN 39
+14
78.4%
Jonah Wieland punt for 48 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 14 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 79%
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
80.5%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
80.2%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+3
79.6%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 1:27
4TH & 5
OWN 32
0
79.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17END OF HALF
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:4423% → 21%
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
77.5%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 0:53
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+15
77.5%
NELSON,KATO pass incomplete, PENALTY BGSU roughing passer 15 yards to the BGSU49, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-7
75.7%
Kato Nelson sacked by Brandon Perce for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 17
OWN 44
+8
79.3%
Kato Nelson run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 9
OPP 48
-5
77.9%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 47Similar
Q2 0:09
3RD & 14
OWN 47
+7
79.3%
Michiah Burton run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18DOWNS
16 plays · 53 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
80.6%
Andrew Clair run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
0
80.8%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+6
80.2%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
81.2%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 0
-3
80.6%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 36 AKRON Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+19
80.1%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 19 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
81.4%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+3
81.4%
Andrew Clair run for 3 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+2
80.8%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
81.4%
Bryson Denley run for 6 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+6
81.5%
Grant Loy pass complete to RB Marlow III for 6 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-1
81.5%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 24Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 24
+5
81.4%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 19
-3
80.9%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 22Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 22
0
79.9%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Alvin DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0017% → 16%
Q3 8:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
83.0%
Brandon Lee run for 8 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 2
OWN 30
-5
82.1%
NELSON,KATO pass incomplete to KNIGHT,J., PENALTY AKRON false start 5 yards to the AKRON25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:55
2ND & 7
OWN 25
+2
82.9%
Brandon Lee run for 2 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q3 8:55
3RD & 5
OWN 27
0
82.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah Knight, broken up by Brandon PerceSimilar
Q3 8:55
4TH & 5
OWN 27
+7
83.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 35 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q3 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
87.1%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q3 7:38
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
86.9%
Grant Loy pass incomplete, broken up by Andy Jean-BaptisteSimilar
Q3 7:38
3RD & 10
OWN 45
-2
86.3%
Andrew Clair run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q3 7:38
4TH & 12
OWN 43
0
85.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 39 yds , Jeremiah Knight returns for no gain to the Akron 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · -12 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-5
85.3%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 13Similar
Q3 6:50
1ST & 15
OWN 13
+6
85.5%
Michiah Burton run for 6 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-12
85.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Melvin Jackson III for a loss of 12 yards to the Akron 6 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by BwGrn David Konowalski , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22TD
3 plays · 6 yds · 0:4488% → 96%
Q3 6:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
88.1%
Bryson Denley run for 4 yds to the Akron 2Similar
Q3 6:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
88.1%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the Akron 2Similar
Q3 5:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
95.8%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 0 yds · 0:005% → 4%
Q3 5:15
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah KnightSimilar
Q3 5:15
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
95.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Caleb BiggersSimilar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OPP 0
0
95.2%
NELSON,KATO rush for no gain to the AKRON41 (SOTOLONGO, Ant.;PERCE, Brandon), PENALTY AKRON holding off-setting, PENALTY BGSU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:15
3RD & 10
OWN 41
0
95.4%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:15
4TH & 10
OWN 41
+7
95.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 43 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 7 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 24FUMBLE
9 plays · 8 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-10
96.4%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for 10 yards to the BGSU33 (LAKO,JOHN), PENALTY BGSU holding 10 yards to the BGSU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 20
OWN 13
0
96.4%
Andrew Clair run for no gain to the BwGrn 13Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 20
OWN 13
+2
96.4%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 18
OWN 15
+1
96.3%
Grant Loy run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 17
OWN 16
+15
96.1%
NARANJO, Matt punt 32 yards to the BGSU48, fair catch by KNIGHT,J., PENALTY AKRON roughing the kicker 15 yards to the BGSU31, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:03
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+3
96.5%
Bryson Denley run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q3 4:03
2ND & 7
OWN 34
0
96.5%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q3 4:03
3RD & 7
OWN 34
+2
96.5%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 4:03
4TH & 5
OWN 36
-5
96.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 31 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Akron Gavin BluntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25DOWNS
4 plays · -11 yds · 0:243% → 2%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
97.4%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 31
-1
97.5%
Michiah Burton run for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 32
+7
97.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 7 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 25
-17
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 17 yards to the BwGrn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 26TD
9 plays · 58 yds · 5:1098% → 100%
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
98.2%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+2
98.2%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:17
3RD & 2
50
+5
98.2%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Akron 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+22
98.3%
Bryson Denley run for 22 yds to the Akron 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+9
98.3%
Bryson Denley run for 9 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 1
OPP 14
+1
98.3%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the Akron 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:17
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
98.3%
RB Marlow III run for 4 yds to the Akron 9Similar
Q4 14:17
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+5
98.3%
Andrew Clair run for 5 yds to the Akron 4Similar
Q4 9:07
3RD & 1
OPP 4
+4
99.8%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 8:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
99.9%
Kato Nelson run for 3 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 8:56
2ND & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:56
3RD & 7
OWN 29
0
99.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Julian Hicks, broken up by Davin WilsonSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 7
OWN 29
+45
99.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BOWLGREEN 41 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the Akron 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 28PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
99.9%
Bryson Denley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 8:00
2ND & 11
OPP 45
+1
99.9%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 8:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+7
99.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Christian Sims for 7 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 3
OPP 37
-5
99.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 8:00
4TH & 8
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Matt Naranjo punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jeremiah Knight at the Akron 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 29INT
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
99.9%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 9 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 1
OWN 19
+9
99.9%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 9 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+3
99.9%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 3 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 5:36
2ND & 7
OWN 31
+11
99.9%
T.J. DeShields pass complete to Julian Hicks for 11 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:36
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+53
99.9%
T.J. DeShields pass intercepted Ty Redding return for 38 yds to the BOWLGREEN 20 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 30Uncategorized
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 3:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.9%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-5
99.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 3:49
2ND & 11
OPP 31
+2
99.9%
Andrew Clair run for 2 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 3:49
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+6
99.9%
Andrew Clair run for 6 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 3:49
4TH & 3
OPP 23
+4
99.9%
Andrew Clair run for 4 yds to the Akron 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 5:23
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
+7.7
TD · Q2 6:46
Grant Loy run for 6 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
+7.3
TD · Q2 8:08
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 2 yds for a TD (Nate Needham KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com