2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadEMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreEMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:28 · Thomas Cluckey punt for 47 yds, downed at the EMich 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 6:54: Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +3.1 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- FG · Q2 9:50: Evan Davis 26 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +2.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 9:21: Bryant Koback run for 54 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +4.8 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
- TD · Q3 5:05: Mike Glass III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — TOL win probability +2.9 pts (now 83%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
- TD · Q4 8:18: Shaq Vann run for 3 yds for a TD, (S. Vann Run For Two-point Conversion) — TOL win probability +2.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: EMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 7EMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 15:00EMU 4th & 13 at EMU 22, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snapGo for it41.7%−0.219% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call41.9%average punt
- Q1 6:49EMU 4th & 5 at TOL 42, down 7Close callPunted · 38.9% before the snapGo for it39.0%42% to convertField goal38.8%−0.330% to makePuntTheir call38.9%−0.1average punt
- Q1 2:53EMU 4th & 12 at EMU 18, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snapGo for it36.0%−0.622% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call36.6%average punt
- Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 2 at EMU 19, up 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 70.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call70.9%56% to convertField goal70.2%−0.777% to makePunt65.7%−5.2average punt
- Q2 9:50TOL 4th & 2 at EMU 9, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.5% before the snapGo for it74.5%54% to convertField goalTheir call73.2%−1.389% to makePunt66.4%−8.1average punt
- Q2 7:28TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 27, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.3% before the snapGo for it73.5%−1.333% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call74.8%average punt
- Q2 3:23EMU 4th & 8 at TOL 11, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 24.5% before the snapGo for it23.6%−0.529% to convertField goalTheir call24.1%87% to makePunt19.7%−4.3average punt
- Q2 2:27TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 34, up 13Numbers favored go for it by 1.7 ptsPunted · 78.0% before the snapGo for it79.1%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call77.4%−1.7average punt
- Q2 2:18EMU 4th & 15 at EMU 42, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 22.2% before the snapGo for it21.0%−0.917% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call21.9%average punt
- Q2 0:31TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 20, up 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.9% before the snapGo for it75.4%−2.625% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call78.0%average punt
- Q3 13:38EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 43, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call22.4%57% to convertField goal20.5%−1.928% to makePunt21.2%−1.1average punt
- Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 7 at EMU 26, up 13Close callWent for it · 91.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call90.8%−0.536% to convertField goal91.3%64% to makePunt85.9%−5.4average punt
- Q4 13:16EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 10, down 13Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.1%55% to convertField goal11.6%−0.588% to makePunt5.2%−6.8average punt
- Q4 4:29TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 39, up 13Close callPunted · 96.1% before the snapGo for it95.9%48% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.8%−0.1average punt
- Q4 1:03EMU 4th & 2 at TOL 16, down 13Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 4.9% before the snapGo for it4.2%−0.256% to convertField goalTheir call4.3%81% to makePunt2.2%−2.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 6:54TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call61.0%97% to makeGo for two61.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartEMUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2TD16 plays · 67 yds · 6:4159% → 63%
EMUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 19 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
TOLDrive 4FUMBLE4 plays · 91 yds · 0:0063% → 64%
Q1 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
62.7%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 3 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q1 4:21
3RD & 7
OWN 12
+82
62.5%
Eli Peters pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 82 yds to the EMich 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
64.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Tariq Speights, recovered by EMichSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 5PUNT4 plays · -2 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 2:53
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-11
63.4%
Jairus Grissom run for 1 yd to the EMich 23 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (-12 Yards) to the EMich 11Similar
Q1 2:53
4TH & 12
OWN 18
+39
64.2%
Jake Julien punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TOLEDO 38 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6FG13 plays · 48 yds · 6:0965% → 73%
Q1 0:59
2ND & 6
OWN 47
+15
65.0%
PETERS,Eli pass incomplete to MITCHELL,Bryce, PENALTY EMU pass interference (McGILL, Kevin) 15 yards to the EMU38, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 0:59
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-5
65.3%
PETERS,Eli pass incomplete, PENALTY TOLEDO IE (DOERGER,Luke) 5 yards to the EMU43, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 7TD6 plays · 79 yds · 2:1828% → 30%
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+41
71.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 41 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+9
69.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 9:46
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
68.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
70.4%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 24 yds for a TD, (Chad Ryland KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 9FG7 plays · 63 yds · 2:3926% → 26%
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+39
73.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 39 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:02
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-4
71.3%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 39Similar
Q2 6:02
2ND & 14
OPP 39
+26
72.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 26 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 9 yds · 0:5676% → 78%
Q2 2:27
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+36
78.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 36 yds, downed at the TOLEDO 30 EASTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the EMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 11PUNT6 plays · 12 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
TOLDrive 12PUNT8 plays · -1 yds · 0:5480% → 80%
Q2 1:25
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-10
80.0%
KOBACK,Bryant rush for 10 yards to the TOLEDO34, out-of-bounds (BELTRAM, Kobie), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HEIDECKER,B.) 10 yards to the TOLEDO14, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 17
OWN 14
+1
77.6%
Eli Peters pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 1 yd to the Toled 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 13END OF HALF1 play · 9 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14TD4 plays · 44 yds · 1:1681% → 82%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 15DOWNS6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
TOLDrive 16TD5 plays · 57 yds · 2:0183% → 85%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+19
84.8%
Bryce Mitchell 19 Yd pass from Eli Peters (Eli Peters Pass to Drew Rosi for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 17FUMBLE4 plays · 29 yds · 0:0017% → 20%
Q3 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
82.8%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to BEYDOUN, Hassan, PENALTY TOLEDO roughing passer (JOHNSON,Desjuan) 15 yards to the EMU40, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:06
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+10
80.4%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Line Latu for 10 yds Line Latu fumbled, forced by Jordan Hendy, recovered by Toled Jamal HinesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18TD1 play · 54 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 19TD13 plays · 75 yds · 4:1617% → 18%
Q3 9:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
83.1%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 21 yds to the EMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+21
81.6%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 21 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 7
OPP 29
+10
81.1%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to LATU, Line (HENDY,Jordan), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (HENDY,Jordan) 10 yards to the TOLEDO19, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:21
2ND & 10
OPP 19
+7
79.9%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Arthur Jackson III for 7 yds to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 9:21
3RD & 3
OPP 12
+5
80.8%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 5 yds to the Toled 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:21
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
0
79.6%
Mike Glass III pass incomplete to Mathew Sexton, broken up by Jordan FisherSimilar
Q3 5:05
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
82.5%
Mike Glass III run for 4 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20DOWNS15 plays · 47 yds · 5:0288% → 91%
Q3 5:02
3RD & 6
OWN 31
+6
86.9%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:02
2ND & 9
OPP 46
-15
88.3%
KOBACK,Bryant rush for 3 yards to the EMU43 (HOYING, Brody;SPEIGHTS, Tariq), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal block (ROSI,Drew) 15 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
92.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Jerodd VinesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 29
+3
92.1%
Eli Peters pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 3 yds to the EMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 21TD12 plays · 74 yds · 4:5811% → 10%
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
89.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Gunnar Oakes for 4 yds to the EMich 30Similar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 6
OWN 30
+6
88.2%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 6 yds to the EMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+4
88.3%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 4 yds to the EMich 40Similar
Q4 13:16
3RD & 6
OWN 40
+9
88.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 9 yds to the EMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:16
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
87.4%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Quian Williams for 11 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:18
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
89.9%
Shaq Vann run for 3 yds for a TD, (S. Vann Run For Two-point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22PUNT9 plays · 18 yds · 3:4695% → 97%
EMUDrive 23TD8 plays · 71 yds · 1:447% → 6%
TOLDrive 24FUMBLE3 plays · 14 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
EMUDrive 25MISSED FG7 plays · 8 yds · 0:566% → 4%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME4 plays · 14 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 1:03
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
99.2%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 28 Bryant Koback fumbled, forced by Vince Calhoun, recovered by ToledSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
EMUDrive 27FG5 plays · 18 yds · 0:003% → 2%
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
97.0%
GLASS, Mike pass incomplete to OAKES, Gunnar (ANDERSON,Tycen), PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul (ANDERSON,Tycen) 12 yards to the TOLEDO13, 1ST DOWN EMU, NO PLAY.Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+5
97.0%
Mike Glass III pass complete to Mathew Sexton for 5 yds to the Toled 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 28TD4 plays · 25 yds · 0:0097% → 95%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:21
Bryant Koback run for 54 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+4.8
End of Game · Final
Game over.
+4.6
TD · Q1 6:54
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+3.1