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CMU

Central Michigan 20 at Buffalo 43

BUF
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDEnd of GameFG+7.8BUF 94.5%Alex McNulty 29 yd FG GOODAWAY 14 - HOME 33 · Q3 3:36
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 3:36 · Alex McNulty 29 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.5+17.30−17.3−34.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 128Home team on offense+24.6Score differential+14.1Garbage-time factor+9.4Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+3.5Pregame prior+1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:58: Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +6.8 pts (now 66%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 3:39: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +16.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 1:35: Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +10.1 pts (now 33%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 1:01: Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +10.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 3:36: Alex McNulty 29 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +7.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CMU 4th & 12 at CMU 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:54BUF 4th & 6 at CMU 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    86% to make
    Punt
    57.8%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 4:45BUF 4th & 10 at CMU 29, down 4
    Close callWent for it · 56.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    56.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    56.3%
    58% to make
    Punt
    54.8%−1.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:54CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 48, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.7%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:38BUF 4th & 1 at BUF 45, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 67.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    67.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    65.4%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 0:56CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 39, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−0.6
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 31, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−1.0
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.9%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:00CMU 4th & 18 at CMU 28, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.8%−2.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.9%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:41BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 37, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.3%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:16CMU 4th & 2 at CMU 31, down 16
    Close callPunted · 16.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.8%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 3:36BUF 4th & 8 at CMU 11, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.5%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%
    87% to make
    Punt
    85.7%−5.4
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:31CMU 4th & 1 at BUF 18, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 8.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    6.7%−1.9
    79% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−7.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 10 at BUF 45, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.0%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.7%
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:57BUF 4th & 9 at CMU 22, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.9%
    72% to make
    Punt
    95.9%−2.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 6:01CMU 4th & 2 at BUF 34, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−<0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    0.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    0.6%−0.2
    average punt
  16. Q4 3:57CMU 4th & 4 at BUF 5, down 22
    Close callWent for it · 0.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.0%
    92% to make
    Punt
    0.3%−0.7
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:41BUF 4th & 9 at CMU 47, up 16
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.2%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:26CMU 4th & 9 at CMU 26, down 16
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.3%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 2:19CMU 4th & 8 at CMU 25, down 23
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−<0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 4:45CMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:22BUF Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    60.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    60.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 12:58BUF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    67.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    67.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 3:39BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 1:35CMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 1:01BUF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:57CMU Touchdown, down 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    2.9%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 2:26BUF Touchdown, up 22 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
56.1%
[SGUN], PENALTY CMU delay of game 5 yards to the CMU20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 20
-8
56.1%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Eddie Wilson for a loss of 8 yards to the CMich 12Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 23
OWN 12
+9
56.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+2
56.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+16
56.1%
Brady Buell punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 42 , Antonio Nunn returns for 16 yds to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 2FG
12 plays · 46 yds · 4:1357% → 57%
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
56.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+10
56.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for 10 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
56.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 5 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+2
56.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 3
OPP 37
+7
56.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
56.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 1
OPP 21
+5
56.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the CMich 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:07
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
56.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:07
2ND & 10
OPP 16
-1
56.6%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 17Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+5
56.5%
[SGUN], PENALTY CMU offside (McCOY, Alonzo) 5 yards to the CMU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:07
3RD & 6
OPP 12
0
56.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q1 8:54
4TH & 6
OPP 12
+29
57.4%
Alex McNulty 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0943% → 46%
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
57.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 18 yds to the CMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
56.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+8
56.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the Buff 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+12
56.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 12 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+7
56.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 7 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 3
OPP 27
+13
56.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 13 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:54
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+5
56.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 5 yds to the Buff 9Similar
Q1 8:54
2ND & 5
OPP 9
+4
56.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q1 8:54
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+4
56.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
53.6%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 4DOWNS
6 plays · 45 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+36
54.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 36 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.4%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 8
OPP 27
-2
56.4%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 29Similar
Q1 4:45
3RD & 10
OPP 29
0
55.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:45
4TH & 10
OPP 29
+9
54.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the CMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5FUMBLE
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0045% → 46%
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
54.7%
Kalil Pimpleton run for 4 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q1 3:26
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+4
54.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 3:26
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+4
54.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
54.4%
Quinten Dormady sacked by James Patterson for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 22 Quinten Dormady fumbled, recovered by Buff Taylor Riggins , return for 0 yards , return for 6 yds to the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 6TD
7 plays · 22 yds · 3:1256% → 60%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-3
56.4%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 25Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 13
OPP 25
+2
56.2%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q1 1:34
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+5
55.5%
[SGUN], PENALTY CMU offside (ADESANYA, Sean) 5 yards to the CMU18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 18
+9
55.7%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the CMich 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
56.4%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-3
56.4%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 8Similar
Q2 13:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
59.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 8 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 2 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+2
58.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 15 Jonathan Ward fumbled, forced by Joey Banks, recovered by Buff Kadofi WrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8TD
1 play · 15 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q2 12:58
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
65.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9PUNT
10 plays · 31 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
64.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 6
OWN 21
+4
64.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 2
OWN 25
+5
64.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 5 yds to the CMich 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+3
64.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+13
64.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 13 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
63.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 48
0
63.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 8
OWN 48
0
64.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 8
OWN 48
0
65.0%
Brady Buell punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 5:5966% → 83%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
66.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 2
OWN 28
+8
66.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
66.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
67.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
66.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 9:38
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+6
65.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
67.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
67.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+9
66.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 9 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
67.4%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+10
67.3%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
67.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the CMich 24Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 8
OPP 24
0
67.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel Lee, broken up by Darius BracySimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 8
OPP 24
+10
66.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 10 yds to the CMich 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:39
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
82.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11TD
6 plays · 59 yds · 1:5721% → 33%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
79.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 4 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+20
78.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 20 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
77.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+13
77.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 13 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
67.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 0:3472% → 85%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
71.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
72.0%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 1:35
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+2
71.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 1:27
2ND & 13
OWN 27
+3
73.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 3 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+10
72.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+57
74.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 54 yds to the BUFFALO 6 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, roughing passer (Troy Hairston) to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
84.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0021% → 20%
Q2 0:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
79.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q2 0:56
2ND & 7
OWN 39
0
79.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 0:56
3RD & 7
OWN 39
0
79.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 0:56
4TH & 7
OWN 39
0
80.4%
Brady Buell punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 13
-1
82.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
81.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Buff 26 BUFFALO Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
81.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+5
80.2%
BALTAR, Jackson punt 36 yards to the CMU38, fair catch by PIMPLETON, K., PENALTY CMU offside (LAVALLII, O.) 5 yards to the UB31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.4%
Jackson Baltar punt for 27 yds , Demarcus Governor returns for no gain to the CMich 42 Demarcus Governor fumbled, recovered by Buff Evan DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q3 14:07
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
82.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass intercepted Alonzo McCoy return for 16 yds to the CMich 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0021% → 19%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+1
79.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 14:00
2ND & 9
OWN 37
0
79.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-9
80.1%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 9 yards to the CMich 28Similar
Q3 14:00
4TH & 18
OWN 28
+15
81.2%
Brady Buell punt for 53 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 15 yds to the Buff 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
83.0%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 12:41
2ND & 12
OWN 32
+2
82.8%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 10
OWN 34
+8
82.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 8 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 2
OWN 42
-5
81.9%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Kadofi Wright) to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 12:41
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
81.6%
Jackson Baltar punt for 40 yds, downed at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
83.1%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete, broken up by Eddie WilsonSimilar
Q3 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+7
83.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 7 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q3 10:16
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+1
82.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 10:16
4TH & 2
OWN 31
0
83.1%
Brady Buell punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20FG
13 plays · 58 yds · 5:1286% → 95%
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+19
86.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
50
+5
87.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 5 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 5
OPP 45
+1
87.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
86.5%
Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
87.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+11
87.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the CMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+8
87.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the CMich 17Similar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 2
OPP 17
+1
87.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 1
OPP 16
+3
86.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 13
0
87.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel LeeSimilar
Q3 8:48
2ND & 10
OPP 13
+2
87.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the CMich 11Similar
Q3 8:48
3RD & 8
OPP 11
0
86.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Daniel Lee, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q3 3:36
4TH & 8
OPP 11
+29
94.5%
Alex McNulty 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21DOWNS
6 plays · 60 yds · 0:008% → 9%
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+52
92.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 52 yds to the Buff 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:31
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
90.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 6 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q3 3:31
2ND & 4
OPP 21
0
90.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 4
OPP 21
+3
91.3%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q3 3:31
4TH & 1
OPP 18
-1
91.3%
Jonathan Ward run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 19 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 1:2696% → 96%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+5
95.5%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q3 1:26
2ND & 5
OWN 24
+5
95.6%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
95.6%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
96.4%
[SGUN], PATTERSON, Jare rush for loss of 4 yards to the UB26 (JOHNSON, LaQuan), PENALTY CMU face mask (JOHNSON, LaQuan) 15 yards to the UB45, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
96.7%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 45Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 45
0
96.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic Johnson, broken up by Darius BracySimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 45
0
96.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23INT
2 plays · 16 yds · 0:005% → 5%
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+16
95.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 16 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
95.2%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Joey Banks return for 6 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24FG
8 plays · 32 yds · 4:4698% → 99%
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
97.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 2
OPP 46
+11
97.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
97.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+8
97.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
97.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 12:43
2ND & 8
OPP 21
0
97.5%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 12:43
3RD & 8
OPP 21
-1
97.4%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 7:57
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+39
98.9%
Alex McNulty 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 25TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 4:001% → 4%
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
98.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+25
98.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 25 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+5
98.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q4 7:57
2ND & 5
OPP 37
+3
98.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q4 7:57
3RD & 2
OPP 34
0
98.7%
Tommy Lazzaro pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 6:01
4TH & 2
OPP 34
+4
99.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+19
98.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 19 yds to the Buff 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:01
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+4
98.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the Buff 7Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 6
OPP 7
-5
98.9%
[SGUN], PENALTY CMU false start (EIPPER, Steve) 5 yards to the UB12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:01
2ND & 11
OPP 12
+7
99.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the Buff 5Similar
Q4 6:01
3RD & 4
OPP 5
0
99.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Willie Reid, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 3:57
4TH & 4
OPP 5
+5
95.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26PUNT
10 plays · 1 yds · 0:1598% → 98%
Q4 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
97.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 3:51
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
98.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+5
98.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (Tico Brown) to the CMich 40Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 2
OPP 40
-5
98.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (Paul Nosworthy) to the CMich 45Similar
Q4 3:45
3RD & 7
OPP 45
-2
98.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 3:41
4TH & 9
OPP 47
0
98.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 22 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 27INT TD
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:091% → 0%
Q4 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-6
99.0%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Taylor Riggins and Ronald McGee for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 19Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+7
99.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 7 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 3:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
99.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+40
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted for a TD Kadofi Wright return for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 28DOWNS
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 2 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 2:19
2ND & 8
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for no gain to the CMich 25Similar
Q4 2:19
3RD & 8
OWN 25
0
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Bernhard RaimannSimilar
Q4 2:19
4TH & 8
OWN 25
+5
99.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Drayton Law for 5 yds to the CMich 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 29END OF GAME
2 plays · -4 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 1:21
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 1:21
2ND & 12
OPP 32
-2
99.8%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 3:39
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 14 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
+16.1
TD · Q2 1:01
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty PAT MISSED)
+10.3
TD · Q2 1:35
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 14 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
-10.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com