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TOL

Toledo 14 at Ball State 52

BALL
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Scheumann Stadium
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Win probability · BALL
modelBALL aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBALL scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 12:54 · Evan Davis 37 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+36.0+18.00−18.0−36.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 151Home team on offense+35.0Score differential+28.7Blowout margin+17.3Garbage-time factor+7.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.6Pregame prior+0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 4:42: Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +4.5 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 2:17: Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +8.4 pts (now 70%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 11:36: Malik Dunner run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +8.6 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 4:53: Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +5.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:32: Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 36 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +0.8 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BALL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6TOL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00BALL 4th & 12 at BALL 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.4%−0.2
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:05BALL 4th & 20 at TOL 25, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    9% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    59.5%
    66% to make
    Punt
    58.8%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:59TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 43, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.6%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:08BALL 4th & 1 at BALL 34, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.9%−0.3
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:42TOL 4th & 9 at TOL 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.1%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.6%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:13TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 36, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.5%−1.9
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    29.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 15:00BALL 4th & 8 at BALL 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.4%−0.8
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:47TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 18, down 17
    Close callPunted · 25.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.4%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    25.6%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:36TOL 4th & 12 at TOL 23, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.8%−2.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.9%
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:09BALL 4th & 1 at TOL 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    86.0%−1.8
    90% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−6.4
    average punt
  11. Q2 4:46TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 16, down 31
    Close callPunted · 4.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.6%−0.1
    average punt
  12. Q2 2:30TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 45, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    4.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−0.4
    average punt
  13. Q2 0:06TOL 4th & 14 at midfield, down 38
    Close callWent for it · 2.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%−<0.1
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.0%
    average punt
  14. Q3 9:09TOL 4th & 1 at BALL 29, down 38
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.2%−0.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00TOL 4th & 3 at TOL 45, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:54TOL 4th & 15 at BALL 20, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−0.1
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:12BALL 4th & 7 at TOL 17, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.8%−<0.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    99.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    99.5%−0.4
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:12TOL 4th & 6 at BALL 26, down 45
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    0.1%
    64% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BALL made the numbers' call on 7 of 7TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 4:42BALL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 2:17BALL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 11:36BALL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 4:53BALL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 0:32BALL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 12:22TOL Touchdown, down 32 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 9:14BALL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:53BALL Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 0:35TOL Touchdown, down 39 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.0%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
54.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
-3
54.5%
Justin Hall run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-6
54.5%
Drew Plitt sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 6 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+22
54.5%
Nathan Snyder punt for 52 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 22 yds to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FUMBLE
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:4046% → 45%
Q1 12:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
54.5%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Bryce Mitchell) to the Toled 42Similar
Q1 12:58
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+1
54.7%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 12:58
2ND & 14
OWN 43
0
54.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryant KobackSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 14
OWN 43
-7
54.9%
Carter Bradley run for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 39 Carter Bradley fumbled, forced by Jordan Williams, recovered by BalSt Jimmy DawSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3FG
7 plays · 14 yds · 2:0555% → 56%
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+10
55.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 10 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
55.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley Miller, broken up by DeDarallo BlueSimilar
Q1 12:10
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
55.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 6 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q1 12:10
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
55.3%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 14 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 4
OPP 9
-15
55.7%
PLITT, Drew pass complete to MILLER, Riley for 9 yards to the TOL0, clock 10:52, PENALTY BALL pass interference (GIVAN, Nolan) 15 yards to the TOL24, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:52
3RD & 19
OPP 24
-1
55.4%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Walter Fletcher for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 20
OPP 25
+42
55.6%
Ryan Rimmler 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 11 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+12
55.7%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
55.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 9:59
2ND & 11
OWN 43
0
55.5%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 9:59
3RD & 11
OWN 43
0
55.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Nic JonesSimilar
Q1 9:59
4TH & 11
OWN 43
0
56.0%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BalSt 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:2656% → 62%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
56.2%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
56.1%
Justin Hall run for 5 yds to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 8:08
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+4
56.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 4 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 8:08
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
55.9%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
56.4%
Walter Fletcher run for 5 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q1 8:08
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+9
56.7%
Walter Fletcher run for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
50
+24
56.9%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 24 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
57.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+24
61.7%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
60.8%
Carter Bradley run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q1 4:42
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+1
60.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 26 TOLEDO Penalty, illegal motion ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 4:42
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.1%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Shakif SeymourSimilar
Q1 4:42
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+8
61.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 52 yds , Riley Miller returns for 8 yds to the BalSt 34 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Jordan Williams) to the BalSt 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 1:1261% → 70%
Q1 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
61.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 27Similar
Q1 3:29
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+34
61.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 34 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
70.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0033% → 32%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
67.3%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 2:13
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
67.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 2:13
3RD & 13
OWN 36
0
67.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete, broken up by Christian AlbrightSimilar
Q1 2:13
4TH & 13
OWN 36
+14
68.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 46 yds , Riley Miller returns for 14 yds to the BalSt 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 1:1471% → 71%
Q1 1:14
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
70.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-10
71.2%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 38 yards to the TOL25 (ANDERSON,Tycen), PENALTY BALL holding (RUDY, Cody) 10 yards to the BALL27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:14
2ND & 15
OWN 27
+7
70.7%
Walter Fletcher run for 7 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 34
0
71.8%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Jordan HendySimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 34
+6
71.3%
Nathan Snyder punt for 62 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 6 yds to the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0029% → 29%
Q2 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+6
71.0%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 14:47
2ND & 4
OWN 16
+2
71.0%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 18
0
71.1%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 18Similar
Q2 14:47
4TH & 2
OWN 18
0
71.2%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 44 yds, downed at the BalSt 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11TD
4 plays · 62 yds · 1:3475% → 84%
Q2 13:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+7
75.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q2 13:10
2ND & 3
OWN 45
+2
75.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 47Similar
Q2 13:10
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
74.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
83.5%
Malik Dunner run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 11:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
81.1%
Carter Bradley run for 8 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-5
80.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 28Similar
Q2 11:36
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-5
80.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jordan Williams for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 11:36
3RD & 12
OWN 23
0
81.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q2 11:36
4TH & 12
OWN 23
+8
81.4%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 40 yds , Riley Miller returns for 8 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13TD
13 plays · 55 yds · 5:0285% → 95%
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+8
85.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 2
OPP 47
+8
85.3%
Justin Hall run for 8 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
85.2%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+2
85.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+20
85.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 20 yds to the Toled 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
85.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 9:55
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+7
85.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q2 9:55
3RD & 2
OPP 9
+1
85.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the Toled 8Similar
Q2 6:09
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
88.2%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
89.3%
PLITT, Drew rush for 5 yards to the TOL0, clock 05:36, PENALTY BALL holding (MARTIN, Luke) 10 yards to the TOL15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 15
+12
89.7%
Walter Fletcher run for 12 yds to the Toled 3Similar
Q2 4:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
95.4%
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:004% → 5%
Q2 4:46
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+4
95.6%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q2 4:46
2ND & 6
OWN 11
+5
95.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryant Koback for 5 yds to the Toled 16Similar
Q2 4:46
3RD & 1
OWN 16
0
95.4%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Jacob WhiteSimilar
Q2 4:46
4TH & 1
OWN 16
+9
95.2%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 40 yds , Riley Miller returns for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 15INT
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+13
96.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 13 yds to the Toled 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:27
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+3
96.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q2 3:27
2ND & 7
OPP 31
0
96.2%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted, touchback. Jordan Hendy return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16DOWNS
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:004% → 4%
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
96.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 9
OWN 21
0
96.5%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+15
96.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 15 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:30
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
96.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 9 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q2 2:30
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
95.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Nick Kovacs, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q2 2:30
3RD & 1
OWN 45
0
95.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:30
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
95.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 17TD
3 plays · 40 yds · 0:2697% → 98%
Q2 0:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
97.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz TylerSimilar
Q2 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
97.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q2 0:32
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+36
98.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 36 yds for a TD TOLEDO Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declined, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18FUMBLE
7 plays · -22 yds · 0:182% → 2%
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q2 0:20
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
97.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis, broken up by Brett Anderson IISimilar
Q2 0:20
3RD & 10
OPP 46
-4
98.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by Jordan Williams and Christian Albright for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 0:06
4TH & 14
50
+8
98.4%
Carter Bradley run for a loss of 16 yards to the Toled 24 Carter Bradley fumbled, forced by Clayton Coll, recovered by BalSt Clayton Coll , return for 8 yds to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
7 plays · 79 yds · 2:332% → 2%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
97.8%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+13
97.9%
Bryant Koback run for 13 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
97.7%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+13
97.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
50
+6
97.6%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Drew Rosi for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q3 12:22
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+44
98.2%
Ronnie Jones run for 44 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
8 plays · 62 yds · 3:0299% → 99%
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
98.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 41Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+17
98.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 17 yds to the Toled 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+4
98.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the Toled 38Similar
Q3 12:16
2ND & 6
OPP 38
+2
98.6%
Walter Fletcher run for 2 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q3 12:16
3RD & 4
OPP 36
+23
98.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 23 yds to the Toled 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:16
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
98.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the Toled 12Similar
Q3 9:14
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+12
99.2%
Justin Hall run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21INT
11 plays · 59 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
99.0%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 22Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 9
OWN 22
+13
99.1%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 13 yds to the Toled 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+27
99.0%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 27 yds to the BalSt 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
98.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
98.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
98.8%
Carter Bradley run for 7 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+3
98.1%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
98.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
98.7%
Ronnie Jones run for 6 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
98.6%
Carter Bradley pass intercepted, touchback. Antonio Phillips return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22TD
7 plays · 80 yds · 3:04100% → 100%
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
99.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 21Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+1
99.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 22Similar
Q3 4:57
3RD & 8
OWN 22
+15
99.5%
Drew Plitt run for 15 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+13
99.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:57
1ST & 10
50
+3
99.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+8
99.5%
Walter Fletcher run for 8 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
99.7%
Malik Dunner run for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23MISSED FG
16 plays · 54 yds · 3:530% → 0%
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+2
99.7%
Ronnie Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 8
OWN 28
+5
99.7%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 1:47
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+5
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 5 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q3 1:47
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Darius Corbett for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+6
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 6 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+6
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the BalSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+13
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 13 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
0
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 36
+21
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jerjuan Newton for 21 yds to the BalSt 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
99.7%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Darius CorbettSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
-5
99.8%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q4 12:54
4TH & 15
OPP 20
+37
99.8%
Evan Davis 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24MISSED FG
9 plays · 63 yds · 5:42100% → 100%
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
99.8%
Will Jones run for 2 yds to the BalSt 22Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+4
99.8%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
99.8%
Will Jones run for 5 yds to the BalSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
99.8%
Tye Evans run for 5 yds to the BalSt 36Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 5
OWN 36
+44
99.8%
Tye Evans run for 44 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
99.8%
Tye Evans run for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 12:54
2ND & 10
OPP 20
-1
99.8%
Trevor Hohlt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 12:54
3RD & 11
OPP 21
+4
99.8%
Will Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 7
OPP 17
+34
99.9%
Ryan Rimmler 34 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25TD
15 plays · 80 yds · 6:370% → 0%
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+25
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 25 yds to the BalSt 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+9
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 9 yds to the BalSt 37Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 1
OPP 37
+7
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the BalSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Nick KovacsSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 9 yds to the BalSt 21Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 1
OPP 21
-8
99.9%
FINN,Dequann rush for 10 yards to the BALL11 (MURRAY, D.), PENALTY TOL holding (LONG,Tyler) 8 yards to the BALL29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 29
+3
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 3 yds to the BalSt 26Similar
Q4 7:12
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+9
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 9 yds to the BalSt 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Jacquez StuartSimilar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+7
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 7 yds to the BalSt 10Similar
Q4 7:12
3RD & 3
OPP 10
+4
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+3
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 3 yds to the BalSt 3Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 2 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
99.9%
Ronnie Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26END OF GAME
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
100.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BalSt 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:36
Malik Dunner run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
+8.6
TD · Q1 2:17
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 39 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
+8.4
TD · Q2 4:53
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
+5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com