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NIU

Northern Illinois 24 at Miami (OH) 27

M-OH
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadNIU aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreNIU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 1:44 · Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+24.0+12.00−12.0−24.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 176Home team on offense+10.3Pregame prior−0.3Garbage-time factor+2.4Score differential+0.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.7Blowout margin+1.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 0:36: Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +11.8 pts (now 43%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 11:13: Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 45 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.0 pts (now 59%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 6:47: Marcus Childers run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +14.2 pts (now 65%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 3:29: Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +18.5 pts (now 67%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 2:44: Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK) — NIU win probability +27.9 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 7 of 9NIU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 15:00NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:59M-OH 4th & 3 at M-OH 38, tied
    Close callPunted · 45.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:10NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:10M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%−0.4
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 0:08NIU 4th & 7 at M-OH 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 52.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−0.2
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%
    91% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−2.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:36M-OH 4th & 9 at NIU 13, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 47.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.5%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.0%
    85% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−3.5
    average punt
  7. Q2 13:36NIU 4th & 1 at NIU 29, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.2 ptsPunted · 53.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.0%−1.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:49M-OH 4th & 16 at M-OH 9, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.6
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:36M-OH 4th & 1 at NIU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    31.0%−1.9
    94% to make
    Punt
    25.7%−7.3
    average punt
  10. Q3 3:29NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 29, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.0%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:21M-OH 4th & 10 at NIU 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−2.9
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    66.9%
    81% to make
    Punt
    52.7%−14.2
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:24NIU 4th & 19 at M-OH 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−4.3
    11% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    18.3%−2.8
    average punt
  13. Q4 12:24M-OH 4th & 6 at M-OH 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%−0.9
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.2%
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:26NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 31, down 7
    Close callPunted · 20.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%−0.2
    average punt
  15. Q4 5:57M-OH 4th & 4 at NIU 19, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.7%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    88.4%−0.3
    77% to make
    Punt
    80.4%−8.3
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:57NIU 4th & 3 at NIU 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    9.4%−0.1
    average punt
  17. Q4 1:49M-OH 4th & 14 at M-OH 21, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 83.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−10.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:44NIU 4th & 9 at NIU 42, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.8%−3.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 3 of 3NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 3:08NIU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 0:36M-OH Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:13M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    59.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    59.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:47NIU Touchdown, up 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 3:29M-OH Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.0%−0.2
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:44NIU Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 2.5 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.8%−2.5
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NIUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
38.0%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
38.0%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
38.0%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
38.0%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-1
38.0%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 40
0
38.0%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tre HarbisonSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 40
+5
38.0%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 5 yds to the MiaOh 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2PUNT
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
38.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 10
OWN 18
-2
38.8%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 16Similar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 12
OWN 16
+15
38.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 15 yds to the MiaOh 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 10
OWN 31
-5
38.8%
MIAMI OH Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 12:59
1ST & 15
OWN 26
0
38.8%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the MiaOh 26Similar
Q1 12:59
2ND & 15
OWN 26
0
38.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:59
3RD & 15
OWN 26
+12
38.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q1 12:59
4TH & 3
OWN 38
0
38.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
39.7%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OWN 19
+7
39.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 7 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+6
39.7%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
39.6%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 37Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+12
39.4%
Tre Harbison run for 12 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+2
39.3%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 49Similar
Q1 10:10
2ND & 8
OPP 49
-2
39.2%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 10:10
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
39.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:10
4TH & 10
OWN 49
0
39.9%
Matt Ference punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0041% → 40%
Q1 6:10
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
41.1%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q1 6:10
2ND & 9
OWN 31
0
41.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
3RD & 9
OWN 31
0
40.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:10
4TH & 9
OWN 31
+4
40.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 49 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 4 yds to the NoIll 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 5FG
12 plays · 69 yds · 5:1759% → 60%
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+10
41.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
40.9%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+6
40.9%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 41Similar
Q1 5:25
3RD & 3
OWN 41
+4
40.5%
Ross Bowers run for 4 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
40.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 7 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 5:25
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+4
40.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+39
40.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 39 yds to the MiaOh 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for no gain to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q1 1:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
39.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 7Similar
Q1 1:39
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
40.1%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 0:08
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
40.3%
John Richardson 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6MISSED FG
5 plays · 1 yds · 1:2443% → 41%
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
42.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 14
-2
42.8%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 12
OPP 16
+3
41.8%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 9
OPP 13
+30
41.3%
Sam Sloman 30 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0060% → 59%
Q2 13:36
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
40.5%
Jordan Nettles run for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q2 13:36
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+6
40.6%
Jordan Nettles run for 6 yds to the NoIll 28Similar
Q2 13:36
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
40.3%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 13:36
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
41.0%
Matt Ference punt for 56 yds, downed at the MiaOh 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:0041% → 39%
Q2 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-6
40.7%
Maurice Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q2 11:49
2ND & 16
OWN 9
0
40.2%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the MiaOh 9Similar
Q2 11:49
3RD & 16
OWN 9
0
39.5%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the MiaOh 9 Jaylon Bester fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Jaylon BesterSimilar
Q2 11:49
4TH & 16
OWN 9
0
39.1%
Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 9TD
15 plays · 43 yds · 6:3461% → 71%
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+1
38.8%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 42Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+12
38.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 12 yds to the MiaOh 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
38.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+9
38.2%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+2
38.6%
Ross Bowers run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-8
37.9%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 8 yards to the MiaOh 27Similar
Q2 9:42
2ND & 18
OPP 27
+16
38.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Michael Love for 16 yds to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 9:42
3RD & 2
OPP 11
+2
38.7%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
-2
36.2%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 11Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 11
+6
36.5%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Michael Love for 6 yds to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q2 5:53
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
37.1%
CHILDERS, Marcu pass incomplete to TEARS, Spencer, QB hurry by BROWN, Mike, PENALTY MIAMI pass interference (RUGAMBA, E.) 3 yards to the MIAMI2, 1ST DOWN NIU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:53
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
36.0%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 3 yards to the MiaOh 5Similar
Q2 5:53
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
36.2%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 1Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
29.0%
Marcus Childers run for 1 yd for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 2:3230% → 43%
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
29.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to N/A for 26 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+3
31.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 3 yds to the NoIll 46Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 7
OPP 46
-4
31.9%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Vinny Labus for a loss of 4 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 3:08
3RD & 11
50
+18
30.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Andrew Homer for 18 yds to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
33.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:08
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+23
33.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 23 yds to the NoIll 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+5
33.1%
Davion Johnson run for 5 yds to the NoIll 4Similar
Q2 3:08
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
33.1%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the NoIll 1Similar
Q2 3:08
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
32.1%
Davion Johnson run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q2 0:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
43.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 11END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 0:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
40.4%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
9 plays · 90 yds · 3:4142% → 59%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+17
41.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 17 yds to the MiaOh 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+5
42.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 5 yds to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 5
OWN 32
+3
43.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 2
OWN 35
+3
43.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
43.4%
Brett Gabbert run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 47Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+4
45.3%
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the NoIll 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+4
45.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 4 yds to the NoIll 45Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 6
OPP 45
+45
58.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 45 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 13TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:2645% → 65%
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
54.9%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-5
53.5%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 26Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+9
55.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 9 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
54.1%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+21
51.9%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 46 for a 1ST down MIAMI OH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
50.9%
Marcus Childers run for no gain to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 11:13
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+38
50.9%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Michael Love for 38 yds to the MiaOh 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
49.3%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 3Similar
Q3 6:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
35.2%
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 3:1144% → 67%
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
43.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew HomerSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
43.3%
Tyre Shelton run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+20
41.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 20 yds to the NoIll 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
46.7%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Travion BanksSimilar
Q3 6:40
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
46.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jaylon BesterSimilar
Q3 6:40
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+40
45.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 40 yds to the NoIll 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.2%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 6:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
48.2%
Brett Gabbert run for no gain to the NoIll 1Similar
Q3 3:29
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
66.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0040% → 37%
Q3 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
60.4%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 24Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
60.8%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q3 3:29
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+5
62.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 5 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 3:29
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+10
62.8%
Matt Ference punt for 46 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 10 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 2:5265% → 80%
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
64.8%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 6
OWN 39
+14
66.9%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Tyre Shelton for 14 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+31
68.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 31 yds to the NoIll 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+3
69.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 2:13
2ND & 7
OPP 13
-4
69.1%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OPP 17
+1
68.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 1 yd to the NoIll 16Similar
Q4 14:21
4TH & 10
OPP 16
+34
79.6%
Sam Sloman 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17MISSED FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 1:5728% → 22%
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+28
71.8%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 28 yds to the MiaOh 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+14
68.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 14 yds to the MiaOh 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:21
1ST & 10
OPP 23
-9
65.8%
Marcus Childers sacked by Ryan McWood for a loss of 9 yards to the MiaOh 32Similar
Q4 14:21
2ND & 19
OPP 32
0
68.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman, broken up by Ryan McWoodSimilar
Q4 14:21
3RD & 19
OPP 32
0
71.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 19
OPP 32
+50
77.8%
John Richardson 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0082% → 80%
Q4 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
82.0%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 12:24
2ND & 6
OWN 36
0
82.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q4 12:24
3RD & 6
OWN 36
0
81.6%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Andrew Homer, broken up by Nick RattinSimilar
Q4 12:24
4TH & 6
OWN 36
0
80.4%
Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0022% → 21%
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+5
77.9%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the NoIll 17Similar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 5
OWN 17
+4
77.7%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 21Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 1
OWN 21
+3
76.8%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:26
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+2
77.7%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 11:26
2ND & 8
OWN 26
+5
77.6%
Marcus Childers run for 5 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 11:26
3RD & 3
OWN 31
0
77.6%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Dennis Robinson NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 11:26
4TH & 3
OWN 31
0
78.8%
Matt Ference punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 20FG
8 plays · 51 yds · 2:3284% → 90%
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+25
84.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 25 yds to the NoIll 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+3
86.6%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 7
OPP 42
0
86.5%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+17
85.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 17 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:29
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+1
86.8%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the NoIll 24Similar
Q4 8:29
2ND & 9
OPP 24
0
86.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Travion BanksSimilar
Q4 8:29
3RD & 9
OPP 24
+5
86.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 5 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 4
OPP 19
+37
90.2%
Sam Sloman 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 3:139% → 40%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
90.9%
Marcus Childers run for 6 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+6
89.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 6 yds to the NoIll 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
89.7%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Mike BrownSimilar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OWN 37
+7
91.2%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 7 yds to the NoIll 44Similar
Q4 5:57
4TH & 3
OWN 44
+16
90.0%
Marcus Childers run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.5%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Daniel Crawford, broken up by Sterling WeatherfordSimilar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
88.4%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for no gain to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+12
88.8%
Marcus Childers run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
87.0%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Dennis Robinson for 4 yds to the MiaOh 24Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 6
OPP 24
+3
87.0%
Tyrik Henderson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 21
+11
88.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 11 yds to the MiaOh 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
60.3%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · -4 yds · 0:5584% → 85%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
83.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 2
OWN 33
-13
84.7%
Team run for a loss of 13 yards to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 1:54
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+1
85.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 14
OWN 21
0
85.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23DOWNS
4 plays · 1 yds · 0:0024% → 20%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
76.2%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Mike BrownSimilar
Q4 1:44
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
77.1%
Marcus Childers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 8 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 1:44
3RD & 2
OWN 49
-7
72.6%
Marcus Childers sacked by Lonnie Phelps and Myles Reid for a loss of 7 yards to the NoIll 42Similar
Q4 1:44
4TH & 9
OWN 42
0
80.4%
Marcus Childers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 24END OF GAME
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:0393% → 93%
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
93.0%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 0:49
2ND & 11
OPP 43
-2
93.2%
Team run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 0:49
3RD & 13
OPP 45
-1
92.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 2:44
Marcus Childers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
-27.9
TD · Q3 3:29
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)
+18.5
TD · Q3 6:47
Marcus Childers run for 3 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)
-14.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com