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CMU

Central Michigan 38 at Bowling Green 20

BGSU
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadCMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreCMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFUMBLETDTDTDTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 15:00 · Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 13 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 102Home team on offense−11.9Pregame prior−15.3Score differential−6.8Garbage-time factor−3.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.7
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:07: Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +4.3 pts (now 77%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 1:45: Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.2 pts (now 85%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:30: Grant Loy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +11.4 pts (now 31%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 9:09: Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +11.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 13:08: Kobe Lewis run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +5.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9CMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:46BGSU 4th & 1 at CMU 41, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 25.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    25.2%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    25.3%−0.2
    average punt
  2. Q2 15:00CMU 4th & 6 at CMU 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.7%−0.5
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 14:51BGSU 4th & 10 at BGSU 29, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    31.3%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.7%
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:07BGSU 4th & 16 at BGSU 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.5%−1.3
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:04CMU 4th & 6 at BGSU 33, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 73.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    73.6%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    73.0%−0.9
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:04BGSU 4th & 3 at BGSU 40, down 7
    Close callPunted · 26.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.5%−0.4
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 6 at CMU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 19.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.3%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    19.0%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    18.7%−0.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 9:09BGSU 4th & 21 at BGSU 33, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.0%−2.4
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%
    average punt
  9. Q3 4:48BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 47, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.5%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    14.1%−1.5
    average punt
  10. Q3 1:10CMU 4th & 14 at BGSU 38, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.1%−0.9
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    89.0%
    38% to make
    Punt
    88.9%−0.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 5 at CMU 21, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.5%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    13.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    8.9%−4.8
    average punt
  12. Q4 11:12CMU 4th & 7 at BGSU 7, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    97.8%
    91% to make
    Punt
    96.1%−1.6
    average punt
  13. Q4 11:12BGSU 4th & 4 at CMU 36, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%−0.4
    42% to make
    Punt
    1.9%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q4 7:38CMU 4th & 14 at CMU 41, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−0.9
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:53CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:07CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    71.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:45CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:30BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:09CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 13:08CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:46BGSU Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    4.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.9%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0778% → 77%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
22.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
22.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+9
22.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 9 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 49
-4
22.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for a loss of 4 yards to the CMich 45Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+14
22.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 14 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+17
22.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 17 yds to the BwGrn 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
22.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 11:53
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+24
22.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 24 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2DOWNS
10 plays · 29 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+9
23.3%
Grant Loy run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 1
OWN 39
-5
23.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Jack Kramer) to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+6
23.3%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
23.4%
Davon Jones run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+4
23.5%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:46
1ST & 10
50
+9
23.5%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 9 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 11:46
2ND & 1
OPP 41
-2
23.5%
Trevon Raymore run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 43Similar
Q1 11:46
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+2
23.5%
RB Marlow III run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 11:46
4TH & 1
OPP 41
0
23.4%
Bryson Denley run for no gain to the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3FUMBLE TD
16 plays · 59 yds · 7:0277% → 73%
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+5
23.3%
WARD, Jonathan rush for 7 yards to the CMU48 (COLEMAN, Kholbe;BIGGERS, Caleb), PENALTY BGSU offside defense 5 yards to the CMU46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 5
OWN 46
+7
23.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
23.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey Sullivan, broken up by Caleb BiggersSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
23.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+16
23.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 16 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
23.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+1
23.2%
Quinten Dormady run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+4
23.3%
Tommy Lazzaro pass complete to Tony Poljan for 4 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
23.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q1 8:32
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+8
23.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 12Similar
Q1 8:32
3RD & 2
OPP 12
+5
23.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
23.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 3:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.3%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 3:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.5%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the BwGrn 2Similar
Q1 1:30
4TH & 0
OPP 2
+100
27.5%
Tommy Lazzaro run for 1 yd Tommy Lazzaro fumbled, forced by Kholbe Coleman, recovered by BwGrn Caleb Biggers , return for 100 yds, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 1:2372% → 70%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
28.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the CMich 28Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 9
OWN 28
0
28.6%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q1 1:23
3RD & 9
OWN 28
+3
29.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 3 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 31
+1
30.0%
Brady Buell punt for 41 yds , Jake Rogers returns for 1 yd to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
30.4%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
30.2%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 29
0
29.6%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 10
OWN 29
+12
29.3%
Matt Naranjo punt for 41 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 12 yds to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
5 plays · 58 yds · 1:5371% → 77%
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+22
28.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 22 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
28.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 13 yds to the BwGrn 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:00
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+7
27.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 7 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 14:00
2ND & 3
OPP 16
+9
27.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 9 yds to the BwGrn 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
23.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0025% → 24%
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
25.1%
Bryson Denley run for 10 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-5
25.4%
LOY, Grant pass complete to MORRIS, Quintin for 8 yards to the BGSU43 (SIDDIQ, Amir), PENALTY BGSU illegal shift 5 yards to the BGSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:07
1ST & 15
OWN 30
+2
25.1%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 12:07
2ND & 13
OWN 32
+2
25.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Jake Rogers for 2 yds to the BwGrn 34Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 11
OWN 34
-5
24.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Austin Dorris) to the BwGrn 29Similar
Q2 12:07
3RD & 16
OWN 29
0
24.4%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 12:07
4TH & 16
OWN 29
+49
24.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 34 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOWLGREEN 37 for a 1ST down CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8MISSED FG
5 plays · 15 yds · 1:4577% → 76%
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
23.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 11 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:49
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
23.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 9:49
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+1
23.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 1 yd to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q2 9:49
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+3
23.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 3 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+51
23.7%
Ryan Tice 51 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q2 8:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
25.1%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q2 8:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+7
24.9%
Bryson Denley run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 8:04
3RD & 3
OWN 40
0
25.7%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Julian Ortega-Jones, broken up by Kyron McKinnie-HarperSimilar
Q2 8:04
4TH & 3
OWN 40
+57
24.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 54 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the BOWLGREEN 6 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (3 Yards) to the CMich 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10TD
16 plays · 97 yds · 5:2375% → 85%
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+6
24.9%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 4
OWN 9
+40
25.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 40 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
22.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 7
OPP 48
-5
22.7%
DORMADY, Q. pass complete to SCOTT, Tyrone for 7 yards to the BGSU41 (PERCE, Brandon), PENALTY CMU ineligible downfield on pass 5 yards to the CMU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 12
OWN 47
+13
23.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 13 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+8
22.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 8 yds to the BwGrn 32 BOWLING GREEN Penalty, substitution infraction ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 2
OPP 32
-15
22.4%
DORMADY, Q. pass incomplete to PIMPLETON, K. (ANDERSON, J.), PENALTY CMU pass interference (PIMPLETON, K.) 15 yards to the BGSU47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 17
OPP 47
0
23.3%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 17
OPP 47
+5
24.2%
DORMADY, Q. pass complete to SULLIVAN, J. for 7 yards to the BGSU40 (KONOWALSKI, D), PENALTY BGSU offside defense 5 yards to the BGSU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:08
3RD & 12
OPP 42
+14
23.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 14 yds to the BwGrn 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
22.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 5
OPP 23
+4
22.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 19Similar
Q2 7:08
2ND & 1
OPP 19
+5
22.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 5 yds to the BwGrn 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+13
22.4%
Jonathan Ward run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
22.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
15.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT
11 plays · 46 yds · 1:2117% → 19%
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
17.1%
LOY, Grant rush for 2 yards to the BGSU27 (JOHNSON, LaQuan), PENALTY CMU offside defense 5 yards to the BGSU30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+5
17.8%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 5 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
17.4%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 5 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 5
OWN 40
+20
18.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 20 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
18.7%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Montrae BraswellSimilar
Q2 1:45
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
18.6%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 1:45
3RD & 10
OPP 40
+11
18.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Austin Dorris for 11 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
19.1%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:24
2ND & 10
OPP 29
0
19.0%
Grant Loy pass intercepted Da'Quaun Jamison return for no gain to the CMich 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · -2 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-2
15.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:3017% → 31%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
17.2%
RB Marlow III run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+5
17.9%
Grant Loy run for 5 yds to the BwGrn 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+26
17.8%
RB Marlow III run for 26 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
18.8%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+2
19.3%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 31
-2
18.8%
Grant Loy run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 33Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+13
18.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 13 yds to the CMich 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+4
19.3%
RB Marlow III run for 4 yds to the CMich 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 16
+13
19.3%
Grant Loy run for 13 yds to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.7%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14TD
5 plays · 65 yds · 1:2176% → 88%
Q3 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
24.1%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 10:30
2ND & 7
OWN 38
0
23.0%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 10:30
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+53
23.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 53 yds Tony Poljan fumbled, forced by Antonyo Sotolongo, recovered by CMich for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
12.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
15.0%
Bryson Denley run for 19 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-10
16.6%
LOY, Grant rush for 1 yard to the BGSU45 (KRESKI, Gage), PENALTY BGSU holding (BLAIR, Tim) 10 yards to the BGSU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 9:09
1ST & 20
OWN 34
+2
15.0%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 36Similar
Q3 9:09
2ND & 18
OWN 36
+2
14.9%
Bryson Denley run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 16
OWN 38
-5
15.0%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q3 9:09
3RD & 21
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q3 9:09
4TH & 21
OWN 33
0
14.6%
Matt Naranjo punt for 42 yds, downed at the CMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 16INT
3 plays · 30 yds · 0:0088% → 89%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
12.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 27 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
11.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
11.3%
Quinten Dormady pass intercepted Jordan Anderson return for no gain to the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS
7 plays · 32 yds · 1:0814% → 14%
Q3 5:56
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
13.7%
Grant Loy run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q3 5:56
2ND & 2
OWN 23
+4
14.3%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+11
13.2%
LOY, Grant pass complete to DENLEY, Bryson for loss of 3 yards to the BGSU24, fumble by DENLEY, Bryson recovered by CMU BROWN, Brandon at BGSU24, BROWN, Brandon for 24 yards to the BGSU0, clock 04:48, PENALTY CMU holding 11 yards to the BGSU38, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
14.2%
Bryson Denley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 2
OWN 46
0
14.8%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 4:48
3RD & 2
OWN 46
+1
14.6%
Grant Loy run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 47Similar
Q3 4:48
4TH & 1
OWN 47
0
14.4%
RB Marlow III run for no gain to the BwGrn 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 18MISSED FG
7 plays · 9 yds · 2:0690% → 89%
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+2
10.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 8
OPP 45
+11
10.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:16
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
10.1%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-10
10.2%
WARD, Jonathan rush for no gain to the BGSU34 (BIGGERS, Caleb), PENALTY CMU holding 10 yards to the BGSU44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:16
2ND & 20
OPP 44
0
10.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to JaCorey SullivanSimilar
Q3 3:16
3RD & 20
OPP 44
+6
10.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q3 1:10
4TH & 14
OPP 38
+56
10.8%
Ryan Tice 56 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19DOWNS
5 plays · 41 yds · 1:1013% → 13%
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+36
13.0%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 36 yds to the CMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:10
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
14.7%
Bryson Denley run for 1 yd to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 1:10
2ND & 9
OPP 25
0
14.5%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Gage KreskiSimilar
Q3 1:10
3RD & 9
OPP 25
+4
13.8%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 21
0
13.2%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:4890% → 98%
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+5
10.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 26Similar
Q4 14:56
2ND & 5
OWN 26
0
9.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
Q4 14:56
3RD & 5
OWN 26
+19
10.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 19 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+4
9.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 49 Kobe Lewis fumbled, forced by David Konowalski, recovered by CMich Kobe LewisSimilar
Q4 13:08
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+51
1.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 51 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21INT
3 plays · 1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+1
2.3%
Trevon Raymore run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 9
OWN 10
0
2.3%
Grant Loy pass intercepted Da'Quaun Jamison return for no gain to the BwGrn 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22FG
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1698% → 98%
Q4 12:28
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+8
1.7%
DORMADY, Q. pass incomplete to RAIMANN, B., QB hurry by HAIGLER, D., PENALTY BGSU personal foul (HAIGLER, D.) 8 yards to the BGSU8, 1ST DOWN CMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
1.7%
Jonathan Ward run for no gain to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q4 12:28
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
1.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q4 12:28
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
1.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+25
1.6%
Ryan Tice 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 86 yds · 3:262% → 5%
Q4 11:12
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+8
1.9%
Bryson Denley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+4
1.9%
Bryson Denley run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 18Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 6
OWN 18
+7
1.9%
Grant Loy run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
1.9%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+22
1.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Austin Dorris for 22 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+6
2.2%
Bryson Denley run for 6 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q4 11:12
2ND & 4
OPP 36
0
2.3%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to RB Marlow IIISimilar
Q4 11:12
3RD & 4
OPP 36
0
2.3%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Rodell RahmaanSimilar
Q4 11:12
4TH & 4
OPP 36
+31
2.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 31 yds to the CMich 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
2.3%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (2 Yards) to the CMich 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
4.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 3 yds for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 24PUNT
8 plays · 6 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+10
2.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 10 yds to the CMich 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+2
2.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 7:38
2ND & 8
OWN 47
+2
2.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 7:38
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+2
2.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 4
OPP 49
-5
2.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the CMich 46Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 9
OWN 46
-5
2.7%
BUELL, Brady punt 29 yards to the BGSU25, out-of-bounds, PENALTY CMU illegal formation 5 yards to the CMU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:38
4TH & 14
OWN 41
+24
2.8%
Brady Buell punt for 42 yds, downed at the BOWLGREEN 17 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, kick catching interference (Rolliann Sturkey) to the BwGrn 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25INT
4 plays · -2 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
2.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Austin Dorris for 7 yds to the BwGrn 42Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-5
2.3%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (RB Marlow III) to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 8
OWN 37
-4
2.2%
Grant Loy run for a loss of 4 yards to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 12
OWN 33
0
2.2%
Grant Loy pass intercepted Troy Brown return for no gain to the BwGrn 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26END OF GAME
6 plays · 32 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
1.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & 4
OPP 35
+2
1.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 33Similar
Q4 3:25
3RD & 2
OPP 33
+2
1.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+22
1.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 22 yds to the BwGrn 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
1.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 7Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
-2
1.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the BwGrn 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 9:09
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
-11.5
TD · Q3 10:30
Grant Loy run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
+11.4
TD · Q2 1:45
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
-7.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com