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BUF

Buffalo 21 at Akron 0

AKR
2019 · Week 8 · Oct 19, 2019 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 7:05 · Jonah Wieland punt for 46 yds, downed at the Buff 35
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+51.5+25.80−25.8−51.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 106Pregame prior−15.0Home team on offense−8.8Score differential−2.7Garbage-time factor−3.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.5
This game in five plays
  1. FUMBLE · Q2 6:00: Zach Gibson sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32 Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Akron Brandon Council , return for 0 yards — AKR win probability +3.6 pts (now 24%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 15:00: Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart — AKR win probability +3.6 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q3 5:06: Zach Gibson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 6 yds to the Akron 47 — AKR win probability +4.1 pts (now 26%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. SACK · Q3 3:54: Zach Gibson sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 8 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Ledarius Mack , return for 0 yards , return for 35 yds, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +13.6 pts (now 88%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. SACK · Q4 7:54: Zach Gibson sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 11 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Kadofi Wright , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +4.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 9BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 8
  1. Q1 7:47AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.7%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:00BUF 4th & 13 at AKR 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 82.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.9%−0.4
    21% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    82.3%
    54% to make
    Punt
    81.9%−0.4
    average punt
  3. Q2 10:33AKR 4th & 18 at BUF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%−1.1
    12% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.8%
    60% to make
    Punt
    16.2%−2.6
    average punt
  4. Q2 10:33BUF 4th & 4 at BUF 34, up 7
    Close callPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.7%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.7%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q2 8:54AKR 4th & 2 at AKR 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.1
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:55AKR 4th & 4 at BUF 13, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 21.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.1%
    46% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.7%−0.4
    85% to make
    Punt
    16.0%−5.0
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:55BUF 4th & 3 at midfield, up 7
    Close callPunted · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q3 15:00AKR 4th & 10 at BUF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.3
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    20.1%−0.7
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  9. Q3 11:17BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 15, up 7
    Close callPunted · 77.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.3%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    78.2%−0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:05BUF 4th & 3 at AKR 18, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 80.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.4%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    79.9%−0.5
    79% to make
    Punt
    73.8%−6.6
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:05AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 19, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−1.7
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:59BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 38, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.7
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:54AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 31, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 11.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.4%−0.5
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    11.9%
    average punt
  14. Q4 15:00BUF 4th & 3 at AKR 48, up 14
    Close callPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.7%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:10AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 27, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.8%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.6%
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:40BUF 4th & 4 at AKR 46, up 14
    Close callPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    93.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    91.2%−1.9
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    92.4%−0.6
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:44AKR 4th & 10 at BUF 30, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.1%−0.3
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    1.4%
    56% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−0.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:47BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 7:1384% → 83%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
16.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
16.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+7
16.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
16.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+5
16.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Akron 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
16.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 1 yd to the Akron 47Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 47
+1
16.3%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Akron 46Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+9
16.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 9 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+8
16.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 8 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 29
+4
16.3%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
16.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 4 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+13
16.3%
Kevin Marks run for 13 yds to the Akron 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
16.3%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+4
16.3%
VANTREASE, Kyle pass incomplete to LEE, Daniel (HOOKS,JALEN), PENALTY AKRON pass interference 4 yards to the AKRON2, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
17.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q1 7:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
18.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 1 yd to the Akron 26Similar
Q1 7:47
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
18.1%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
17.9%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:47
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
17.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 38 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3MISSED FG
14 plays · 33 yds · 5:5682% → 80%
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
18.0%
Kevin Marks run for 8 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 2
OWN 44
+4
17.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Kevin Marks, broken up by A.J. WattsSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+3
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 3 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 7
OPP 49
+8
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 8 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
17.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 4
OPP 35
0
17.7%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Akron 35Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 4
OPP 35
-5
17.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 9
OPP 40
+12
17.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 12 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
17.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 33Similar
Q1 6:56
1ST & 15
OPP 33
0
17.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q1 6:56
2ND & 15
OPP 33
+2
17.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 6:56
3RD & 13
OPP 31
0
17.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 1:00
4TH & 13
OPP 31
+48
19.6%
Alex McNulty 48 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4MISSED FG
13 plays · 41 yds · 5:2720% → 21%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
19.9%
Decavilon Reese run for 6 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 1:00
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+3
20.4%
Decavilon Reese run for 3 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q1 1:00
3RD & 1
OWN 40
+2
20.3%
Decavilon Reese run for 2 yds to the Akron 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
20.7%
GIBSON,ZACH rush for no gain to the AKRON42 (BANKS, Joey), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON32, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 32
+10
20.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds to the Akron 42Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 42
+4
20.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Decavilon Reese for 4 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 46
+16
20.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 16 yds to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
21.1%
Decavilon Reese run for 8 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+10
21.6%
GIBSON,ZACH sacked for loss of 8 yards to the UB38 (KOONCE, Malcolm), PENALTY UB holding 10 yards to the UB20, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-6
21.6%
Brandon Lee run for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 26 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 16
OPP 26
0
21.0%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 16
OPP 26
-2
20.4%
Zach Gibson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 28Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 18
OPP 28
+45
20.7%
Jerry Fitschen 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
20.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-3
20.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 9
OWN 29
0
21.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 9
OWN 29
+5
21.7%
BALTAR, Jackson punt 3 yards to the UB32, DAVIS,ALVIN return to the AKRON37 (HARRISON, Ja'Va), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the UB34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
21.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0021% → 21%
Q2 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.4%
Decavilon Reese run for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q2 8:54
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+4
21.5%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 8:54
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+1
21.3%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 1 yd to the Akron 33Similar
Q2 8:54
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
21.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 46 yds, downed at the Buff 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7FUMBLE
2 plays · 8 yds · 0:0079% → 79%
Q2 6:43
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
20.8%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 6:43
2ND & 7
OWN 24
+5
20.6%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 29 Kevin Marks fumbled, forced by Bryce Wilson, recovered by Akron Eric BentleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8MISSED FG
7 plays · 16 yds · 3:0524% → 23%
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-3
24.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Ledarius Mack for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 32 Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Akron Brandon Council , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 13
OPP 32
0
23.6%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Decavilon ReeseSimilar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 13
OPP 32
+13
22.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 13 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
24.2%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 4 yds to the Buff 15Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+2
24.2%
Maverick Wolfley run for 2 yds to the Buff 13Similar
Q2 6:00
3RD & 4
OPP 13
0
23.3%
Zach Gibson run for no gain to the Buff 13 AKRON Penalty, IS ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 4
OPP 13
+45
23.1%
Jerry Fitschen 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 0:0079% → 80%
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
20.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 26Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 4
OWN 26
+3
20.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 1
OWN 29
+3
20.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+4
20.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Daniel Lee for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 6
OWN 36
+7
19.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 7 yds to the Buff 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:55
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+7
19.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 2:55
3RD & 3
50
0
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac Lefebvre, broken up by DeMarkus GloverSimilar
Q2 2:55
4TH & 3
50
0
20.3%
Jackson Baltar punt for 50 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 10END OF HALF
8 plays · 20 yds · 0:2922% → 22%
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-5
22.3%
GIBSON,ZACH pass incomplete to SCIPPIO,T. (HILL, Tyrone), PENALTY AKRON false start 5 yards to the AKRON15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 15
OWN 15
+17
22.2%
Decavilon Reese run for 17 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
22.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 11 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
23.8%
Zach Gibson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:09
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
22.0%
Decavilon Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 0:03
2ND & 10
OWN 43
-3
22.1%
Decavilon Reese run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 35 yds · 0:0022% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
22.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-7
22.4%
Zach Gibson sacked by Devon Russell for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 21Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+39
21.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 39 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
24.8%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+4
24.7%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 4 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 36
+1
24.5%
Decavilon Reese run for 1 yd to the Buff 35Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 35
-5
23.1%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 40Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OPP 40
0
22.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+4
22.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q3 11:17
2ND & 6
OWN 12
+4
22.2%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 16Similar
Q3 11:17
3RD & 2
OWN 16
-1
22.5%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 15Similar
Q3 11:17
4TH & 3
OWN 15
0
23.5%
Jackson Baltar punt for 43 yds , Alvin Davis returns for no gain to the Akron 38 Alvin Davis fumbled, recovered by Buff Max MichelSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13MISSED FG
6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0280% → 79%
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+8
19.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 2
OPP 30
+5
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 5 yds to the Akron 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
19.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for no gain to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 9:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+7
19.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Akron 18Similar
Q3 9:07
3RD & 3
OPP 18
0
20.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio Nunn, broken up by A.J. WattsSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 3
OPP 18
+36
20.9%
Alex McNulty 36 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0024% → 22%
Q3 7:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
23.6%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 19Similar
Q3 7:05
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
23.4%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete, broken up by Eddie WilsonSimilar
Q3 7:05
3RD & 11
OWN 19
0
22.4%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q3 7:05
4TH & 11
OWN 19
0
21.9%
Jonah Wieland punt for 46 yds, downed at the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
20.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
Q3 5:59
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+3
21.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q3 5:59
3RD & 7
OWN 38
0
20.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 5:59
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
22.0%
Jackson Baltar punt for 21 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16FUMBLE TD
4 plays · -6 yds · 1:1226% → 13%
Q3 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
26.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 6 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 4
OWN 47
-4
27.1%
HAYES-PATRICK rush for 5 yards to the UB48 (PATTERSON, Jame;BANKS, Joey), PENALTY AKRON false start 4 yards to the AKRON43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:06
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
26.1%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 8
OWN 43
+35
12.5%
Zach Gibson sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 8 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Ledarius Mack , return for 0 yards , return for 35 yds, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
Q3 3:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
11.6%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 2 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q3 3:54
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
11.6%
Peter Hayes-Patrick run for 4 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q3 3:54
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
11.7%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q3 3:54
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
11.4%
Jonah Wieland punt for 40 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 2:3890% → 91%
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
9.7%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 30Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+15
9.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 15 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
8.9%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 2:38
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
8.9%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
0
8.5%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Akron 48 Jaret Patterson fumbled, forced by A.J. Watts,Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 48
0
9.2%
Jackson Baltar punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Alvin Davis at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 12 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
10.4%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 11 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:10
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+4
10.7%
Brandon Lee run for 4 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q4 14:10
2ND & 6
OWN 30
-3
10.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 27Similar
Q4 14:10
3RD & 9
OWN 27
0
10.2%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 9
OWN 27
0
10.2%
Jonah Wieland punt for 37 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
7.2%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+5
7.0%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
6.9%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+3
6.8%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 3
OPP 45
-1
7.0%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 4
OPP 46
0
7.6%
Jackson Baltar punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Alvin Davis at the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21FUMBLE TD
3 plays · -15 yds · 1:057% → 2%
Q4 8:59
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-3
6.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 12Similar
Q4 8:59
2ND & 13
OWN 12
0
6.8%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 13
OWN 12
0
1.9%
Zach Gibson sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 11 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Kadofi Wright , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22INT
16 plays · 45 yds · 3:102% → 1%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
1.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+10
2.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+8
2.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 8 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 2
OWN 49
-15
2.3%
GIBSON,ZACH rush for no gain to the AKRON49, PENALTY AKRON personal foul 15 yards to the AKRON34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 17
OWN 34
+10
1.9%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 7
OWN 44
+14
2.1%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 14 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-7
2.2%
Zach Gibson sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 49Similar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 17
OPP 49
0
2.1%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 17
OPP 49
-5
2.0%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 7:54
3RD & 22
OWN 46
+24
2.0%
Zach Gibson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 24 yds to the Buff 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
2.4%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q4 7:54
2ND & 10
OPP 30
0
2.4%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q4 4:44
3RD & 10
OPP 30
0
1.2%
Zach Gibson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q4 4:44
4TH & 10
OPP 30
0
1.1%
Zach Gibson pass intercepted Wankeith Akin Jr. return for no gain to the Buff 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 23END OF GAME
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+19
0.8%
Dylan McDuffie run for 4 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-5
0.7%
BUFFALO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Buff 44Similar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 15
OWN 44
+9
0.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 9 yds to the Akron 47Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 6
OPP 47
+1
0.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 1 yd to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 5
OPP 46
+19
0.7%
Dylan McDuffie run for 19 yds to the Akron 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 12
OPP 29
-1
0.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
SACK · Q3 3:54
Zach Gibson sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 8 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Ledarius Mack , return for 0 yards , return for 35 yds, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-13.6
SACK · Q4 7:54
Zach Gibson sacked by Kadofi Wright for a loss of 11 yards Zach Gibson fumbled, recovered by Buff Kadofi Wright , return for 0 yards for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
-4.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:06
Zach Gibson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 6 yds to the Akron 47
+4.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com