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TOL

Toledo 7 at Bowling Green 20

BGSU
2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadTOL aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreTOL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDFGEnd of GameMISSED FG+12.9BGSU 49.9%Evan Davis 41 yd FG MISSEDAWAY 7 - HOME 17 · Q3 6:48
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Q3 6:48 · Evan Davis 41 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+46.0+23.00−23.0−46.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 110Pregame prior−27.4Home team on offense+9.3Score differential+3.5Garbage-time factor+2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.6Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:52: Grant Loy run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +8.4 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  2. MISSED FG · Q3 6:48: Evan Davis 41 yd FG MISSED — BGSU win probability +12.9 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. FG · Q3 2:44: Nate Needham 26 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +19.5 pts (now 72%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 0:54: Davon Jones run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31 — BGSU win probability +11.1 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 9:24: Davon Jones run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 35 — BGSU win probability +10.5 pts (now 92%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TOL made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
  1. Q1 13:09BGSU 4th & 5 at TOL 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 6.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    6.1%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    6.1%
    83% to make
    Punt
    5.7%−0.4
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:31TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 6, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.7%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    90.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:57BGSU 4th & 18 at BGSU 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.5
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.0%
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TOL 4th & 1 at BGSU 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−0.6
    64% to make
    Punt
    83.4%−2.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:48TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 10, down 10
    Close callPunted · 75.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.2%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:56BGSU 4th & 1 at TOL 24, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    25.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    24.2%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−6.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:56TOL 4th & 8 at TOL 26, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.6%−1.0
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.7%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:55TOL 4th & 1 at BGSU 39, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 65.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    65.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    61.2%−3.9
    36% to make
    Punt
    61.6%−3.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:32BGSU 4th & 8 at TOL 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.9%−0.5
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    44.0%−2.4
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    46.4%
    average punt
  10. Q3 6:48TOL 4th & 16 at BGSU 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 44.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.1%−3.8
    15% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    33.9%−11.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 2:44BGSU 4th & 4 at TOL 9, up 10
    Close callKicked a field goal · 63.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.1%
    43% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.3%−0.7
    89% to make
    Punt
    49.2%−13.8
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:44TOL 4th & 4 at TOL 42, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00BGSU 4th & 9 at TOL 35, up 13
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 81.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.5%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    82.5%−<0.1
    45% to make
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%−1.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:15TOL 4th & 5 at TOL 23, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.4%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.9%
    average punt
  15. Q4 9:24BGSU 4th & 6 at BGSU 40, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.2%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:21TOL 4th & 1 at TOL 25, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    6.0%−1.3
    average punt
  17. Q4 3:14TOL 4th & 14 at TOL 40, down 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 5.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.9%
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:25BGSU 4th & 4 at TOL 34, up 13
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%−0.2
    47% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.6
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:27TOL 4th & 8 at BGSU 31, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.4%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    2.4%−1.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2TOL made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 7:35BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:24TOL Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 7:52BGSU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BGSUDrive 1FG
6 plays · 61 yds · 1:514% → 5%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+56
4.1%
Grant Loy run for 56 yds to the Toled 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-1
4.1%
Grant Loy run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 21Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 21
+6
4.1%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 6 yds to the Toled 15Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
4.1%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Davon JonesSimilar
Q1 13:09
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+32
4.6%
Nate Needham 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2FUMBLE
9 plays · 62 yds · 2:1495% → 95%
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
4.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 13:04
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+2
4.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 13:04
3RD & 8
OWN 31
+15
4.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 15 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+50
4.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 50 yds to the BwGrn 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
4.6%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the BwGrn 4Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
5.2%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Cameron Bell) to the BwGrn 9Similar
Q1 10:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
5.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for no gain to the BwGrn 9 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by BwGrn Nico LautanenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 3TD
7 plays · 91 yds · 3:075% → 7%
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+2
5.3%
Grant Loy run for 2 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 8
OWN 11
-1
5.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 9
OWN 10
+12
5.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Austin Dorris for 12 yds to the BwGrn 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
5.3%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 10:42
2ND & 4
OWN 28
0
5.3%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the BwGrn 28Similar
Q1 10:42
3RD & 4
OWN 28
+6
5.3%
Davon Jones run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+66
7.1%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 66 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
6.6%
PENALTY TOLEDO personal foul off-setting, PENALTY BGSU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:31
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
7.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 7:31
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+1
7.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 2Similar
Q1 7:31
3RD & 9
OWN 2
+4
7.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 7:31
4TH & 5
OWN 6
+64
7.1%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 64 yds , Jake Rogers returns for a loss of 1 yard to the BwGrn 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
8.0%
RB Marlow III run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 1
OWN 38
+9
8.2%
Grant Loy run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
8.2%
Davon Jones run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:57
2ND & 7
50
-11
8.2%
Grant Loy sacked by Nate Givhan for a loss of 11 yards to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 5:57
3RD & 18
OWN 39
0
7.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Davon Jones for no gain to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q1 5:57
4TH & 18
OWN 39
0
7.8%
Matt Naranjo punt for 36 yds, downed at the Toled 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
15 plays · 75 yds · 5:5191% → 90%
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
9.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 6 yds to the Toled 31Similar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+3
9.3%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 34Similar
Q1 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+6
9.3%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
9.2%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (Jerry Roberts) to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 5
OWN 45
+8
9.1%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:15
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
9.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q1 3:15
2ND & 10
OPP 47
+6
9.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 41Similar
Q1 1:16
3RD & 4
OPP 41
+6
10.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 6 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:16
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
10.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q1 1:16
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+3
10.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 32Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 32
+6
11.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 26
+6
11.3%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-3
10.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OPP 23
+9
11.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 14Similar
Q2 12:24
3RD & 4
OPP 14
+14
10.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryant Koback for 14 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 7TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 4:2711% → 20%
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+6
11.2%
Grant Loy run for 6 yds to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 4
OWN 24
+3
11.3%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 27Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 1
OWN 27
+13
11.1%
Davon Jones run for 13 yds to the BwGrn 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
11.8%
Grant Loy pass complete to Davon Jones for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+15
11.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 15 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
12.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (Austin Dorris) to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 12:19
1ST & 15
OPP 46
+3
11.7%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 12:19
2ND & 12
OPP 43
+6
11.8%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 6 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q2 12:19
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+22
11.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 22 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
20.3%
Grant Loy run for 15 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
19.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 5 yds to the Toled 7Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 5
OWN 7
-3
19.8%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 4Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 8
OWN 4
+6
20.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 6 yds to the Toled 10Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 2
OWN 10
0
20.5%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 9DOWNS
5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0023% → 22%
Q2 5:56
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+1
23.1%
Grant Loy run for 1 yd to the Toled 32Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 9
OPP 32
-9
23.1%
LOY, Grant pass incomplete to ORTEGA-JONES, J, PENALTY BGSU holding 9 yards to the TOLEDO41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:56
2ND & 18
OPP 41
+12
22.4%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 12 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 5:56
3RD & 6
OPP 29
+5
22.6%
Bryson Denley run for 5 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 5:56
4TH & 1
OPP 24
0
21.9%
Davon Jones run for no gain to the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0075% → 74%
Q2 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
24.8%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 3:56
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+1
24.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q2 3:56
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-4
24.7%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Nico Lautanen for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 3:56
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
26.2%
Thomas Cluckey punt blocked by Jamari Bozeman blocked by Jamari BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 11INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q2 2:10
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
30.1%
Davon Jones run for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
Q2 2:10
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+8
30.1%
Grant Loy pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for 8 yds to the Toled 16 Samuel Womack fumbled, forced by Davon Jones, recovered by Toled Jordan FisherSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12MISSED FG
9 plays · 78 yds · 1:1571% → 71%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+10
29.4%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
29.2%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 7
OWN 29
+27
28.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 27 yds to the BwGrn 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
29.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the BwGrn 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+14
27.2%
Bryant Koback run for 14 yds to the BwGrn 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
29.1%
Evan Davis 23 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by David KonowalskiSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0068% → 69%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+16
32.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 16 yds to the Toled 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
30.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+5
29.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 5 yds to the BwGrn 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
29.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 4 yds to the BwGrn 44Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+4
29.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q3 14:55
3RD & 2
OPP 40
+1
29.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 14:55
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-3
31.0%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:4340% → 41%
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
39.9%
Bryson Denley run for 12 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
40.6%
Jordan Wayne-Prather run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 12:15
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+4
40.4%
Grant Loy run for 4 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q3 12:15
3RD & 3
OPP 39
0
39.4%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Austin DorrisSimilar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 3
OPP 39
-5
41.4%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 10:32
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
41.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15MISSED FG
9 plays · 56 yds · 3:3659% → 50%
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+7
40.7%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OWN 27
+19
39.5%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 31 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (David Konowalski) to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
38.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 5 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+31
37.8%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 31 yds to the BwGrn 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:24
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
35.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 7 yds to the BwGrn 11Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 3
OPP 11
-5
35.6%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Reggie Gilliam) to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q3 10:24
2ND & 8
OPP 16
+1
35.6%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 15Similar
Q3 10:24
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-9
37.0%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Jordan Anderson for a loss of 9 yards to the BwGrn 24Similar
Q3 6:48
4TH & 16
OPP 24
+41
49.9%
Evan Davis 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 16FG
11 plays · 67 yds · 4:0450% → 72%
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+26
50.0%
Grant Loy run for 26 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
50
-5
52.9%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 15
OWN 45
+3
51.9%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 12
OWN 48
0
51.8%
Grant Loy run for no gain to the BwGrn 48Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 12
OWN 48
+26
50.2%
Grant Loy pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 26 yds to the Toled 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
53.3%
Grant Loy run for 1 yd to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+10
53.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to RB Marlow III for 10 yds to the Toled 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:48
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+2
53.3%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 6:48
2ND & 8
OPP 13
+4
53.3%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 4 yds to the Toled 9Similar
Q3 6:48
3RD & 4
OPP 9
0
52.1%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Bryson DenleySimilar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 4
OPP 9
+26
71.6%
Nate Needham 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0033% → 35%
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
66.6%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:44
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+8
64.2%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 2:44
2ND & 2
OWN 44
0
62.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond Phillips, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q3 2:44
3RD & 2
OWN 44
-2
63.2%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 42Similar
Q3 2:44
4TH & 4
OWN 42
0
65.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 35 yds, downed at the BwGrn 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 18PUNT
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:5476% → 83%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
76.4%
Davon Jones run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+12
76.6%
Davon Jones run for 12 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+10
84.5%
Bryson Denley run for 10 yds to the Toled 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+6
84.7%
Davon Jones run for 6 yds to the Toled 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 41
+2
84.7%
Davon Jones run for 2 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 39
+3
84.1%
Grant Loy run for 3 yds to the Toled 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
84.7%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
84.6%
Grant Loy pass incomplete to Quintin MorrisSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 35
0
84.1%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 9
OPP 35
0
82.7%
Matt Naranjo punt for 31 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19PUNT
7 plays · 19 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
81.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+4
81.0%
Carter Bradley run for 4 yds to the Toled 8Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+10
81.3%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 10 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:15
1ST & 10
OWN 18
-6
80.7%
Carter Bradley sacked by Nico Lautanen for a loss of 6 yards to the Toled 12Similar
Q4 12:15
2ND & 16
OWN 12
+9
81.0%
Bryant Koback run for 9 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 7
OWN 21
+2
81.1%
Carter Bradley run for 2 yds to the Toled 23 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 12:15
4TH & 5
OWN 23
0
81.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 51 yds, downed at the BwGrn 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 20PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0092% → 91%
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+9
91.9%
Davon Jones run for 9 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 1
OWN 35
+1
91.9%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the BwGrn 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
92.2%
Grant Loy run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 43Similar
Q4 9:24
2ND & 3
OWN 43
-5
92.4%
Davon Jones run for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 38Similar
Q4 9:24
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
92.2%
Grant Loy run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 45Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 1
OWN 45
-5
91.6%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the BwGrn 40Similar
Q4 9:24
4TH & 6
OWN 40
+43
91.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 43 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21DOWNS
12 plays · 24 yds · 2:078% → 3%
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 16
0
91.6%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 16
+4
91.7%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 4 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 6
OWN 20
+5
91.8%
Carter Bradley run for 5 yds to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 1
OWN 25
+4
91.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 4 yds to the Toled 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
90.9%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Nick Kovacs, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+15
91.5%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 15 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-4
90.0%
Carter Bradley sacked by David Konowalski for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 40Similar
Q4 3:24
2ND & 14
OWN 40
0
96.4%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q4 3:24
3RD & 14
OWN 40
0
96.5%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by JaJuan HudsonSimilar
Q4 3:14
4TH & 14
OWN 40
0
97.1%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Nick Kovacs, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 22DOWNS
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:4398% → 99%
Q4 3:08
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+1
98.0%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 3:08
2ND & 9
OPP 39
+4
98.0%
Davon Jones run for 4 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q4 2:13
3RD & 5
OPP 35
+1
98.5%
Davon Jones run for 1 yd to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 1:25
4TH & 4
OPP 34
0
99.1%
Grant Loy pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23INT
6 plays · 35 yds · 0:522% → 2%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+9
98.3%
Eli Peters pass complete to Bryant Koback for 9 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 1
OWN 43
+24
98.2%
Eli Peters pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 24 yds to the BwGrn 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
97.7%
Eli Peters pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Jordan AndersonSimilar
Q4 1:19
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+7
97.8%
Eli Peters run for 7 yds to the BwGrn 26Similar
Q4 0:27
3RD & 3
OPP 26
-5
98.1%
Eli Peters sacked by Karl Brooks for a loss of 5 yards to the BwGrn 31 Eli Peters fumbled, recovered by Toled Nick Rosi , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 0:27
4TH & 8
OPP 31
0
98.3%
Eli Peters pass intercepted, touchback. Jamari Bozeman return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q3 2:44
Nate Needham 26 yd FG GOOD
+19.5
MISSED FG · Q3 6:48
Evan Davis 41 yd FG MISSED
+12.9
KEY PLAY · Q3 0:54
Davon Jones run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 31
+11.1
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com