2019 · Week 7 · Oct 12, 2019 · InfoCision Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadKENT aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreKENT score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:23 · Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive holding (7 Yards) to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- FG · Q2 5:51: Matthew Trickett 36 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +2.4 pts (now 79%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:30: Will Matthews run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +5.6 pts (now 87%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 5:50: Will Matthews run for 4 yds to the KntSt 14 — KENT win probability +3.3 pts (now 89%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 13:43: Matthew Trickett 43 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +1.9 pts (now 94%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q4 11:52: Matthew Trickett 45 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +2.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 7 of 8KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 7:46AKR 4th & 17 at KENT 29, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.8% before the snapGo for it20.5%−0.314% to convertField goalTheir call20.8%58% to makePunt20.1%−0.7average punt
- Q1 7:46KENT 4th & 4 at AKR 38, up 7Close callPunted · 79.4% before the snapGo for it79.5%48% to convertField goal79.2%−0.238% to makePuntTheir call79.2%−0.2average punt
- Q2 13:23AKR 4th & 2 at KENT 21, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call23.5%57% to convertField goal23.0%−0.574% to makePunt19.6%−3.9average punt
- Q2 12:31AKR 4th & 7 at KENT 7, down 7Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.7% before the snapGo for it23.1%−0.328% to convertField goalTheir call23.4%91% to makePunt19.2%−4.2average punt
- Q2 12:29KENT 4th & 1 at KENT 32, up 4Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call74.3%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt73.6%−0.7average punt
- Q2 5:51KENT 4th & 8 at AKR 19, up 4Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.7% before the snapGo for it72.1%−0.632% to convertField goalTheir call72.7%77% to makePunt68.7%−4.0average punt
- Q2 5:44AKR 4th & 3 at KENT 42, down 7Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsPunted · 24.6% before the snapGo for it25.0%52% to convertField goal23.5%−1.530% to makePuntTheir call23.8%−1.3average punt
- Q3 14:54AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 32, down 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 15.7% before the snapGo for it15.5%−0.833% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call16.3%average punt
- Q3 13:18KENT 4th & 6 at KENT 38, up 14Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snapGo for it84.9%−0.340% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call85.1%average punt
- Q3 6:43AKR 4th & 2 at KENT 2, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call15.5%48% to convertField goal14.4%−1.194% to makePunt9.6%−5.9average punt
- Q4 13:43KENT 4th & 3 at AKR 25, up 14Close callKicked a field goal · 91.4% before the snapGo for it92.0%52% to convertField goalTheir call91.2%−0.866% to makePunt84.9%−7.1average punt
- Q4 11:52KENT 4th & 16 at AKR 28, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 94.1% before the snapGo for it93.0%−1.115% to convertField goalTheir call94.2%60% to makePunt91.3%−2.9average punt
- Q4 11:52AKR 4th & 3 at KENT 4, down 20Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.5%45% to convertField goal3.5%−<0.193% to makePunt0.1%−3.4average punt
- Q4 2:25KENT 4th & 15 at AKR 26, up 20Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.0% before the snapGo for it98.5%−0.416% to convertField goalTheir call98.8%64% to makePunt98.0%−0.9average punt
- Q4 2:18AKR 4th & 14 at AKR 26, down 23Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.8% before the snapGo for it0.7%−<0.117% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q1 13:29KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call80.2%97% to makeGo for two80.2%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:30KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.4%97% to makeGo for two82.3%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD6 plays · 75 yds · 1:3182% → 82%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
18.1%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to CARRIGAN, Mike, PENALTY AKRON pass interference 15 yards to the KENTST40, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+49
18.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 49 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 2MISSED FG13 plays · 45 yds · 5:3818% → 20%
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+15
18.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 15 yds to the Akron 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-10
18.5%
NELSON,KATO rush for no gain to the AKRON41 (PHILLIPS, C.), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 12
OWN 39
+20
18.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 20 yds to the KntSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:24
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-15
18.5%
NELSON,KATO sacked for loss of 3 yards to the KENTST25 (BAHR, Matt;MAJETTE, Theo), PENALTY AKRON illegal block 15 yards to the KENTST37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:24
2ND & 22
OPP 34
0
18.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Julian Hicks for no gain to the KntSt 34Similar
Q1 13:24
3RD & 22
OPP 34
+5
18.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 5 yds to the KntSt 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 33 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+9
19.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 9 yds to the KntSt 38Similar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
19.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 6 yds to the KntSt 48Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+8
19.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 8 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-10
19.1%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 2 yards to the AKRON42 (DAVIS,ALVIN;FEATHERSTONE,S), PENALTY KENTST holding 10 yards to the KENTST46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:46
2ND & 18
OWN 48
0
19.4%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Isaiah McKoy, broken up by Bubba ArslanianSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 4FG17 plays · 80 yds · 7:0620% → 25%
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+6
20.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 6 yds to the Akron 19Similar
Q1 4:37
3RD & 3
OWN 20
+30
20.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 30 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:37
1ST & 10
OPP 29
-10
21.5%
Brandon Lee run for a loss of 10 yards to the KntSt 39 AKRON Penalty, illegal block ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 20
OPP 39
+5
21.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for 5 yds to the KntSt 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OPP 34
+13
21.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Timothy Scippio for 13 yds to the KntSt 21Similar
Q2 13:23
4TH & 2
OPP 21
+14
22.4%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the KntSt 14 for a 1ST down KENT ST Penalty, Defensive holding (7 Yards) to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
0
23.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Akeam PetersSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5FG19 plays · 58 yds · 6:3876% → 79%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
24.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 9 yds to the KntSt 32Similar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
23.7%
Dustin Crum sacked by Ja'Quize Cross for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 31Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 14
OPP 0
0
22.5%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 12 yards to the KENTST43, PENALTY AKRON offside off-setting, PENALTY KENTST holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 8
OWN 37
+14
24.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 14 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
22.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 9 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 40
+7
22.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 7 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 1
OPP 24
0
22.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Adam Dulka for no gain to the Akron 24Similar
Q2 12:29
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+8
22.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 8 yds to the Akron 13Similar
Q2 12:29
3RD & 2
OPP 13
-10
22.7%
ELMORE, Craig rush for loss of 1 yard to the AKRON14 (;LAKO,JOHN), PENALTY KENTST holding 10 yards to the AKRON23, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 6PUNT8 plays · 29 yds · 0:0022% → 23%
Q2 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+7
22.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for 7 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q2 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+15
22.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 15 yds to the KntSt 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:44
2ND & 9
OPP 48
+6
24.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 6 yds to the KntSt 42Similar
Q2 5:44
4TH & 3
OPP 42
+25
23.3%
Jonah Wieland punt for 35 yds, downed at the KntSt 7 AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding (-10 Yards) to the KntSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7TD13 plays · 83 yds · 2:1679% → 87%
Q2 2:46
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+14
20.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 14 yds to the KntSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
19.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 5 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
18.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 8 yds to the Akron 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 8END OF HALF2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q2 0:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
15.2%
Kato Nelson sacked by Kesean Gamble for a loss of 10 yards to the Akron 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9PUNT5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0015% → 15%
Q3 14:54
3RD & 11
OWN 29
+3
15.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 3 yds to the Akron 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+7
14.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 7 yds to the KntSt 41Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 3
OWN 41
-2
13.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 39Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+4
14.4%
Derek Adams punt for 43 yds , Alvin Davis returns for 4 yds to the Akron 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11DOWNS15 plays · 67 yds · 4:4015% → 14%
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+10
14.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Julian Hicks for 10 yds to the Akron 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-4
14.7%
NELSON,KATO pass complete to MATHISON,M. for 15 yards to the AKRON48 (KNIGHT, Q.), PENALTY AKRON holding 4 yards to the AKRON29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 14
OWN 29
+15
14.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Timothy Scippio for 15 yds to the Akron 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-1
15.8%
Kato Nelson sacked by Elvis Hines for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 43Similar
Q3 11:23
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
16.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Timothy Scippio AKRON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 41
+35
15.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 35 yds to the KntSt 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:43
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
-8
14.1%
Kato Nelson sacked by Kesean Gamble for a loss of 8 yards to the KntSt 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 12FG18 plays · 65 yds · 7:0789% → 94%
Q3 5:50
2ND & 1
OWN 30
-2
10.5%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for a loss of 2 yards to the KntSt 28Similar
Q3 5:50
3RD & 3
OWN 28
+5
11.0%
CRUM, Dustin rush for 1 yard to the KENTST29 (ARSLANIAN,B.;SAMPSON,JUSTIN), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the KENTST33, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+5
9.8%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah (COCHRAN,RANDY), PENALTY AKRON offside 5 yards to the AKRON38, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13FUMBLE2 plays · -3 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q4 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
6.9%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 22 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by KntSt Jabbar PriceSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 14FG4 plays · -6 yds · 1:4495% → 98%
Q4 13:36
3RD & 14
OPP 26
-2
5.3%
Dustin Crum sacked by Josh Ward for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 15DOWNS15 plays · 71 yds · 0:002% → 3%
Q4 11:52
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
2.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 7 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+10
2.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 10 yds to the Akron 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 6
50
+15
2.3%
NELSON,KATO pass incomplete to MATHISON,M., PENALTY KENTST personal foul 15 yards to the KENTST35, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+10
2.7%
NELSON,KATO pass incomplete to MATHISON,M. (SHERALD JR., K.), PENALTY KENTST unsportsmanlike conduct 10 yards to the KENTST11, 1ST DOWN AKRON, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-5
2.7%
NELSON,KATO pass complete to BROWN,TREVOR for 5 yards to the KENTST6 (KNIGHT, Q.), PENALTY AKRON illegal touching 5 yards to the KENTST16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:52
1ST & 15
OPP 16
0
2.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate Stewart, broken up by Qwuantrezz KnightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16FG10 plays · 70 yds · 5:0698% → 99%
Q4 7:31
2ND & 3
OPP 14
-5
1.3%
Dustin Crum run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 26 Dustin Crum fumbled, forced by Michael Scott, recovered by KntSt Dustin CrumSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 17PUNT8 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-10
0.9%
REESE,DECAVILON rush for 7 yards to the AKRON34 (FAULKNER, Nick), PENALTY AKRON holding 10 yards to the AKRON17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
0.8%
KELLEY,ROBBIE pass incomplete to WOLFLEY,M., PENALTY AKRON pass interference, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 2:18
2ND & 16
OWN 21
0
0.8%
Robbie Kelley sacked by Matt Bahr and Dominic Hill for 0 yards to the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 18Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:30
Will Matthews run for 5 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
-5.6
KEY PLAY · Q3 5:50
Will Matthews run for 4 yds to the KntSt 14
-3.3
FG · Q4 11:52
Matthew Trickett 45 yd FG GOOD
-2.9