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WMU

Western Michigan 24 at Toledo 31

TOL
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadWMU aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreWMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 7:24 · Nick Mihalic punt for 48 yds, downed at the Toled 22
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame priorTime remaining
+26.0+13.00−13.0−26.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 72Home team on offense+7.9Garbage-time factor+0.5Score differential+2.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.0Pregame prior+2.3Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 7:24: Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +9.0 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 2:36: Evan Davis 22 yd FG GOOD — TOL win probability +8.1 pts (now 80%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:20: Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 43 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +8.3 pts (now 25%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 9:22: Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +11.7 pts (now 95%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:56: LeVante Bellamy run for 39 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK) — WMU win probability +14.1 pts (now 23%) (top driver: WMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6WMU made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 11:58WMU 4th & 8 at WMU 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.9%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.0%
    average punt
  2. Q1 1:33TOL 4th & 16 at TOL 19, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%−1.1
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.7%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00WMU 4th & 10 at WMU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.2%
    average punt
  4. Q2 13:05WMU 4th & 6 at WMU 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.7%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.8%
    average punt
  5. Q2 7:24WMU 4th & 5 at WMU 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 26.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−0.3
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:36TOL 4th & 5 at WMU 5, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.0%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.1%
    92% to make
    Punt
    70.4%−5.6
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:20WMU 4th & 9 at TOL 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.6%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.5%
    62% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−5.1
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:56WMU 4th & 5 at TOL 27, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 18.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    17.2%−0.1
    62% to make
    Punt
    10.1%−7.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 13:18TOL 4th & 11 at TOL 26, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.2%−2.4
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.6%
    average punt
  10. Q3 9:12TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 25, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 74.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.3%−3.0
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:13WMU 4th & 30 at TOL 43, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 21.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.1%−2.8
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    21.7%−1.2
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    22.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 5:57TOL 4th & 2 at TOL 18, up 10
    Close callPunted · 77.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.3%−0.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:59WMU 4th & 2 at TOL 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    22.0%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    20.5%−1.5
    68% to make
    Punt
    12.1%−9.8
    average punt
  14. Q3 0:29WMU 4th & 6 at TOL 17, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.6
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.2%
    80% to make
    Punt
    8.3%−8.9
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:56TOL 4th & 13 at TOL 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%−4.7
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:49WMU 4th & 22 at TOL 24, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 5.9 ptsWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    10.1%−5.9
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    16.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    6.5%−9.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 3 of 4WMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:03TOL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    56.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    56.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 6:49TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:20WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:24TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:20WMU Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 9:22TOL Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.5%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.8%
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 7:56WMU Touchdown, down 8 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TOLDrive 1TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 2:5754% → 56%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+3
53.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for 3 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 23
+10
53.7%
Bryant Koback run for 10 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
53.7%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+1
53.7%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 14
OWN 29
+23
53.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 23 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
53.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 10 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+38
55.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 38 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
55.1%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 32Similar
Q1 11:58
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
55.0%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
55.2%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:58
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+21
55.3%
Nick Mihalic punt for 39 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 21 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 3TD
10 plays · 50 yds · 4:1856% → 62%
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
50
+1
56.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the WMich 49Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 49
+5
56.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 4
OPP 44
+6
55.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 6 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
56.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the WMich 37Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+6
56.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for 6 yds to the WMich 31Similar
Q1 11:07
3RD & 3
OPP 31
+6
55.9%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the WMich 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
56.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+12
56.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the WMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:07
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+8
56.1%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the WMich 5Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 2
OPP 5
+5
62.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for 5 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 4TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:2939% → 42%
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
60.7%
Jon Wassink run for 13 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+11
60.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 11 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
60.3%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
60.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to LeVante Bellamy, broken up by DeDarallo BlueSimilar
Q1 6:49
3RD & 10
OWN 49
+12
60.6%
Jon Wassink run for 12 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+23
60.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 23 yds to the Toled 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
59.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the Toled 11Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+6
59.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the Toled 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-2
59.6%
Jon Wassink sacked by Saeed Holt and Terrance Taylor for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 7Similar
Q1 6:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
59.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 1 yd to the Toled 6Similar
Q1 2:20
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
57.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 6 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:4760% → 58%
Q1 2:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 2:20
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
59.5%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 20Similar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 15
OWN 20
-1
58.8%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Ralph Holley for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 19Similar
Q1 1:33
4TH & 16
OWN 19
0
58.4%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 43 yds, downed at the WMich 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 11 yds · 0:4041% → 40%
Q1 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+3
58.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 3 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q1 0:40
2ND & 7
OWN 41
+6
58.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for 6 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+2
58.4%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the WMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
58.3%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
0
58.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon Bussell, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 49
0
59.1%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 49
+27
60.2%
Nick Mihalic punt for 35 yds , Danzel McKinley-Lewis returns for 27 yds to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 7INT
3 plays · 27 yds · 0:0062% → 62%
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+24
61.9%
Bryant Koback run for 24 yds to the WMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:50
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
62.3%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 13:50
2ND & 7
OPP 30
0
62.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass intercepted Drake Spears return for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 22 yds · 0:0040% → 40%
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
60.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 18 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
59.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to LeVante BellamySimilar
Q2 13:05
2ND & 10
OWN 43
0
59.7%
Jon Wassink pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:05
3RD & 10
OWN 43
+4
60.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 4 yds to the WMich 47Similar
Q2 13:05
4TH & 6
OWN 47
0
60.4%
Nick Mihalic punt for 29 yds, downed at the Toled 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 9TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 4:0962% → 72%
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+28
61.7%
Bryant Koback run for 28 yds to the WMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-1
63.4%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 49Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 11
OPP 49
+5
62.7%
Ronnie Jones run for 5 yds to the WMich 44Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 6
OPP 44
+17
62.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Ronnie Jones for 17 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-10
63.6%
GUADAGNI,M. pass complete to MADDOX,Devin for 3 yards to the WMU24 (CURTIS, A.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (ROSI,Drew) 10 yards to the WMU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 20
OPP 37
+1
62.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 1 yd to the WMich 36Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 19
OPP 36
+21
62.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 7 yds to the WMich 29 for a 1ST down WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Stefan Claiborne) to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:33
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
63.6%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the WMich 15Similar
Q2 11:33
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+6
63.6%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the WMich 9Similar
Q2 11:33
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+7
63.0%
GUADAGNI,M. pass incomplete to MITCHELL,Bryce, PENALTY WMU offside defense declined, PENALTY WMU pass interference (LUPRO, P.) 7 yards to the WMU2, 1ST DOWN TOLEDO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:24
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
72.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 7:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
70.5%
LeVante Bellamy run for a loss of 2 yards to the WMich 23Similar
Q2 7:24
2ND & 12
OWN 23
0
70.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr., broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q2 7:24
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+7
71.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 7 yds to the WMich 30Similar
Q2 7:24
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
71.1%
Nick Mihalic punt for 48 yds, downed at the Toled 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 11FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 3:1571% → 80%
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+4
71.3%
Shakif Seymour run for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 6
OWN 26
+47
71.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 47 yds to the WMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+6
72.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 6 yds to the WMich 21Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & 4
OPP 21
+6
72.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the WMich 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+11
72.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the WMich 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
-1
72.9%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 5Similar
Q2 5:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Devin MaddoxSimilar
Q2 5:51
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
72.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q2 2:36
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
80.4%
Evan Davis 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 12INT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0521% → 20%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
79.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for no gain to the WMich 25Similar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
79.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 13 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
78.0%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q2 2:36
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+1
78.3%
Jon Wassink run for 1 yd to the WMich 39Similar
Q2 1:31
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+9
80.1%
Jon Wassink pass intercepted Kahlil Robinson return for 9 yds to the Toled 47 Kahlil Robinson fumbled, forced by Giovanni Ricci, recovered by WMich Mark BrooksSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 13MISSED FG
10 plays · 20 yds · 1:0022% → 14%
Q2 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+5
78.1%
Jon Wassink run for 5 yds to the Toled 42Similar
Q2 1:20
2ND & 5
OPP 42
-5
77.5%
Jon Wassink sacked by Terrance Taylor for a loss of 5 yards to the Toled 47Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 10
OPP 47
+19
80.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to DaShon Bussell for 19 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+7
77.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to LeVante Bellamy for 7 yds to the Toled 21Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 3
OPP 21
-15
77.1%
WASSINK, J. pass incomplete to MOORE, S., PENALTY WMU pass interference (MOORE, S.) 15 yards to the TOLEDO36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 18
OPP 36
+9
79.7%
Jon Wassink run for 9 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q2 1:00
3RD & 9
OPP 27
0
78.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Jaylen Hall, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 0:20
4TH & 9
OPP 27
+44
86.0%
Thiago Kapps 44 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Nate Childress N/A return for no gain to the Toled 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 14MISSED FG
3 plays · 47 yds · 0:2084% → 85%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+14
83.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 14 yds to the Toled 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+33
84.2%
Bryant Koback run for 33 yds to the WMich 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+43
85.1%
Evan Davis 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 15DOWNS
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0018% → 20%
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+27
81.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 27 yds to the WMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+21
80.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 21 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+5
79.0%
LeVante Bellamy run for 5 yds to the Toled 27Similar
Q3 14:56
2ND & 5
OPP 27
0
78.7%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr., broken up by Nate ChildressSimilar
Q3 14:56
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
79.6%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q3 14:56
4TH & 5
OPP 27
0
80.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Keith Mixon Jr., broken up by Nate ChildressSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0083% → 81%
Q3 13:18
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
82.8%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 13:18
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
82.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q3 13:18
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-3
82.2%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Treshaun Hayward for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 13:18
4TH & 11
OWN 26
0
81.2%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keith Mixon Jr. at the WMich 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 17TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:3915% → 25%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
84.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
85.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 13 yds to the WMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
84.0%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 8 yds to the WMich 46Similar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+14
83.3%
Davon Tucker run for 14 yds to the Toled 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
83.1%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q3 11:59
2ND & 10
OPP 40
-3
83.4%
Davon Tucker run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 9:20
3RD & 13
OPP 43
+43
75.1%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 43 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 18PUNT
8 plays · 8 yds · 0:0076% → 74%
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
76.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+8
75.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryant Koback for 8 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:12
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
76.2%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the Toled 33Similar
Q3 9:12
2ND & 5
OWN 33
0
76.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce MitchellSimilar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 5
OWN 33
-8
75.5%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 2 yds to the Toled 35 TOLEDO Penalty, Offensive holding (Drew Rosi) to the Toled 25Similar
Q3 9:12
3RD & 13
OWN 25
0
74.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:12
4TH & 13
OWN 25
0
73.9%
TEAM puntSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0026% → 22%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
74.2%
LeVante Bellamy run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+14
74.2%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 14 yds to the Toled 23 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
72.5%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Jaylen HallSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 10
OPP 23
-20
73.1%
Jon Wassink sacked by Terrance Taylor and DeDarallo Blue for a loss of 20 yards to the Toled 43 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, intentional grounding (Jon Wassink) to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 30
OPP 43
0
76.4%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q3 7:13
4TH & 30
OPP 43
0
77.7%
Nick Mihalic punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Danzel McKinley-Lewis at the Toled 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0078% → 77%
Q3 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+1
78.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 1 yd to the Toled 11Similar
Q3 5:57
2ND & 9
OWN 11
+2
78.2%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 13Similar
Q3 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 13
+5
77.2%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 18Similar
Q3 5:57
4TH & 2
OWN 18
+16
76.6%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 41 yds , Keith Mixon Jr. returns for 16 yds to the Toled 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 26 yds · 3:3024% → 26%
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
76.1%
Sean Tyler run for 3 yds to the Toled 40Similar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+8
76.2%
Sean Tyler run for 8 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
74.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Sean TylerSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 32
0
75.0%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy Moore, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 10
OPP 32
+8
76.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 8 yds to the Toled 24Similar
Q3 3:59
4TH & 2
OPP 24
+3
77.3%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 3 yds to the Toled 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:59
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
74.4%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon BussellSimilar
Q3 3:59
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+4
74.9%
LeVante Bellamy run for 4 yds to the Toled 17Similar
Q3 3:59
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
75.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni RicciSimilar
Q3 0:29
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+34
73.6%
Thiago Kapps 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 22TD
14 plays · 74 yds · 6:0281% → 95%
Q3 0:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
-1
80.9%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 25
0
81.7%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 25
+12
80.7%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 12 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
82.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 20 yds to the WMich 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+2
84.1%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the WMich 41Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 8
OPP 41
+9
84.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the WMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+9
84.4%
Shakif Seymour run for 9 yds to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 23
0
84.4%
Shakif Seymour run for no gain to the WMich 23Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 23
+5
83.4%
Bryant Koback run for 5 yds to the WMich 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+7
84.4%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 11
0
84.4%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the WMich 11Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+10
83.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 10 yds to the WMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
95.1%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 23TD
5 plays · 55 yds · 1:199% → 23%
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+6
90.9%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Skyy Moore for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 9:15
2ND & 4
OPP 49
+5
90.5%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 5 yds to the Toled 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:15
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+5
90.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 5 yds to the Toled 39Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 5
OPP 39
+39
76.6%
LeVante Bellamy run for 39 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0086% → 84%
Q4 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-1
86.4%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 34Similar
Q4 7:56
2ND & 11
OWN 34
-7
86.2%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Andre Carter for a loss of 7 yards to the Toled 27Similar
Q4 7:56
3RD & 18
OWN 27
+5
84.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 5 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q4 7:56
4TH & 13
OWN 32
0
84.3%
Thomas Cluckey punt for 48 yds , Keith Mixon Jr. returns for no gain to the WMich 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
WMUDrive 25DOWNS
13 plays · 76 yds · 0:0015% → 14%
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
84.9%
Jon Wassink sacked by Jamal Hines and Derrius Mullins for a loss of 1 yard to the WMich 19Similar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+7
85.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Keith Mixon Jr. for 7 yds to the WMich 26Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+5
84.8%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 5 yds to the WMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+10
83.5%
WASSINK, J. pass intercepted by ROBINSON,Kahlil at the TOLEDO47, ROBINSON,Kahlil return to the WMU2, out-of-bounds (WASSINK, J.), PENALTY TOLEDO holding (ANDERSON,Tycen) 10 yards to the WMU41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
82.4%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Jaylen Hall for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 1
50
0
79.9%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Giovanni Ricci, broken up by Kahlil RobinsonSimilar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 1
50
+5
81.0%
Davon Tucker run for 5 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+15
80.4%
WASSINK, J. pass incomplete to HALL, J. (WOMACK,Samuel), PENALTY TOLEDO pass interference (WOMACK,Samuel) 15 yards to the TOLEDO30, 1ST DOWN WMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+18
78.7%
Jon Wassink pass complete to Giovanni Ricci for 18 yds to the Toled 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:49
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
78.2%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to Skyy MooreSimilar
Q4 5:49
2ND & 10
OPP 12
-12
78.2%
Jon Wassink sacked by Saeed Holt for a loss of 12 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q4 5:49
3RD & 22
OPP 24
0
82.8%
Jon Wassink pass incomplete to DaShon BussellSimilar
Q4 5:49
4TH & 22
OPP 24
+20
85.8%
Jon Wassink run for 20 yds to the Toled 4 WESTRN MICHIGAN Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 26END OF GAME
8 plays · 38 yds · 0:1794% → 96%
Q4 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+2
93.7%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 6Similar
Q4 1:37
2ND & 8
OWN 6
+12
94.7%
Bryant Koback run for 12 yds to the Toled 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+2
95.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 8
OWN 20
+28
95.6%
Bryant Koback run for 28 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-3
96.3%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 13
OWN 45
-3
96.1%
Team run for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:56
LeVante Bellamy run for 39 yds for a TD, (Thiago Kapps KICK)
-14.1
TD · Q4 9:22
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+11.7
TD · Q2 7:24
Mitchell Guadagni run for 2 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com