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OHIO

Ohio 21 at Buffalo 20

BUF
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4OTTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:05 · Jackson Baltar 24 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
+25.0+12.50−12.5−25.0Q1Q2Q3Q4OTPlay 9Pregame prior−9.2Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.1Time remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0Garbage-time factor−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:44: Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +12.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 14:47: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK) — BUF win probability +37.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:39: O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +27.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  4. TD · OT 0:00: Kyle Vantrease run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +19.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  5. TD · OT 0:00: O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick) — OHIO win probability +63.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
  1. Q1 11:05BUF 4th & 7 at OHIO 7, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.6%−<0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    43.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    43.1%−0.6
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:05OHIO 4th & 11 at BUF 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    56.5%−<0.1
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    56.5%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    56.5%
    average punt
  3. Q2 12:30BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    48.1%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−0.4
    93% to make
    Punt
    44.9%−3.2
    average punt
  4. Q2 4:35OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 4, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    41.2%−0.6
    93% to make
    Punt
    34.7%−7.2
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:29BUF 4th & 4 at OHIO 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    59.1%−1.3
    34% to make
    Punt
    59.1%−1.3
    average punt
  6. Q3 1:49BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.0%−1.8
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.8%
    average punt
  7. Q4 14:47OHIO 4th & 10 at BUF 47, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.0%−1.4
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    26.3%
    average punt
  8. Q4 14:00BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.3%−1.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  9. Q4 10:39BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.0%−0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.1%
    average punt
  10. Q4 6:41OHIO 4th & 8 at BUF 35, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.4%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.1%−1.3
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.3%−4.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:41BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    49.2%−8.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    49.9%−7.5
    average punt
  12. Q4 1:22BUF 4th & 1 at OHIO 29, tied
    Numbers favored go for it by 8.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    55.1%−8.3
    58% to make
    Punt
    31.7%−31.7
    average punt
  13. Q4 0:26OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.8%−1.8
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q2 12:30BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    52.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    52.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:44OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  3. Q4 14:47BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:39OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    43.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1MISSED FG
9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5540% → 42%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
40.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
40.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+61
40.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 61 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
40.2%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Ohio 5Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+1
40.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the Ohio 4Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.2%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (AWOSIKA, Kayode) 5 yards to the OHIO9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+2
40.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Ohio 7Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+24
41.7%
Jackson Baltar 24 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT
11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
41.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the Ohio 22Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 22
+12
41.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 12 yds to the Ohio 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 2 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 10 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+2
41.0%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 48
+7
41.0%
O'Shaan Allison run for 7 yds to the Buff 45Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+4
41.0%
O'Shaan Allison run for 4 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
40.9%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 15
OPP 46
0
41.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to O'Shaan AllisonSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+4
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
Q1 11:05
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
41.5%
Michael Farkas punt for 32 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
16 plays · 90 yds · 8:1443% → 52%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+9
42.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for 9 yds to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 1
OWN 19
0
43.1%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 19Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 1
OWN 19
+2
42.6%
Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds to the Buff 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+9
43.0%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 1
OWN 30
+4
43.6%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
43.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.9%
[PSTL], PENALTY OHIO offside (EVANS, W.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 5
50
+10
44.0%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Ohio 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+7
44.1%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Ohio 33Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 3
OPP 33
+11
44.3%
Kevin Marks run for 11 yds to the Ohio 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
44.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 5 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 17
+6
47.1%
Kevin Marks run for 6 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
47.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for no gain to the Ohio 11Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+7
47.1%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Ohio 4Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 4
0
46.5%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Ohio 4Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
52.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4DOWNS
18 plays · 71 yds · 7:5548% → 41%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.7%
[PSTL], ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to BUCKNER, J., PENALTY UB pass interference (HILL, Tyrone) 15 yards to the OHIO40, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
50.7%
O'Shaan Allison run for 7 yds to the Ohio 47Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 3
OWN 47
+11
50.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 11 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
49.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 16 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
48.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for 5 yds to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 5
OPP 21
+3
48.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for 3 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+5
49.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the Buff 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+1
48.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the Buff 12Similar
Q2 12:30
2ND & 9
OPP 12
+2
48.8%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
54.7%
[SGUN], ROURKE, N. pass complete to ALLISON, O. for no gain to the UB10 (WRIGHT, Kadofi), PENALTY UB holding (BAKER, Roy) 5 yards to the UB5, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 2
OPP 5
+4
54.7%
O'Shaan Allison run for 4 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.5%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
53.5%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the Buff 1Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-3
54.7%
O'Shaan Allison run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 4:35
4TH & GOAL
OPP 4
0
59.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ryan LuehrmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS
12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
60.3%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 4Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+4
60.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 8Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 6
OWN 8
+8
59.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
60.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+4
60.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 24Similar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 2
OWN 24
+8
60.1%
Jaret Patterson run for 8 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
60.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+16
62.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 16 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
62.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 4
OPP 40
0
62.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q2 4:29
3RD & 4
OPP 40
0
62.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q2 4:29
4TH & 4
OPP 40
0
61.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6END OF HALF
1 play · -6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
62.3%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Malcolm Koonce and Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD
9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1139% → 57%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+14
60.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 14 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+20
59.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 20 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+7
57.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 7 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 3
OPP 37
+8
57.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 8 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+15
56.0%
Isiah Cox run for 15 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
56.0%
O'Shaan Allison run for 8 yds to the Buff 6Similar
Q3 14:55
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
56.0%
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
Q3 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
43.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 8FUMBLE
7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0050% → 55%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.4%
Kevin Marks run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+7
52.5%
Kevin Marks run for 7 yds to the Buff 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
55.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the Ohio 25 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, forced by Eric Popp, recovered by Ohio Javon HaganSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
52.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 23 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
54.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q3 10:44
2ND & 4
OPP 30
+4
55.3%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9INT
12 plays · 53 yds · 0:0052% → 58%
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
47.9%
O'Shaan Allison run for 3 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
47.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+2
46.6%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the Ohio 39Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
45.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 7 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 1
OWN 46
+2
44.9%
O'Shaan Allison run for 2 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
44.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+4
44.0%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 4 yds to the Buff 44Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
44.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
44.0%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+3
42.4%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 31
+9
43.9%
Nathan Rourke run for 9 yds to the Buff 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
42.4%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Kadofi Wright return for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
Q3 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+5
51.9%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 1:49
2ND & 5
OWN 14
0
52.4%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 1:49
3RD & 5
OWN 14
0
50.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Dominic JohnsonSimilar
Q3 1:49
4TH & 5
OWN 14
0
49.3%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 39 yds, downed at the Ohio 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:2655% → 54%
Q3 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 47
0
44.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for no gain to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 47
-7
45.6%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 7 yards to the Ohio 34 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by Buff Taylor Riggins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 12TD
1 play · 34 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
82.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
72.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 18 yds to the Buff 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
68.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
69.5%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 10
OPP 47
0
71.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to De'Montre TuggleSimilar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 10
OPP 47
0
73.4%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
80.2%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 12Similar
Q4 14:00
2ND & 8
OWN 12
+2
79.9%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q4 14:00
3RD & 6
OWN 14
0
78.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q4 14:00
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+3
77.8%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 37 yds , DL Knock returns for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD
4 plays · 48 yds · 1:5527% → 58%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
72.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 34 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+4
70.1%
O'Shaan Allison run for 4 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q4 12:34
2ND & 6
OPP 10
+9
70.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 9 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
42.4%
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 10:39
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
55.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
53.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (NUNN, Antonio) 5 yards to the UB25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
52.4%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DL Knock at the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17MISSED FG
6 plays · 31 yds · 3:0151% → 52%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+29
48.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 29 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
44.6%
[PSTL], ALLISON, O. rush for 4 yards to the UB33 (BANKS, Joey), PENALTY OHIO holding (MESERVY, H.) 10 yards to the UB47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-6
46.4%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 9:42
2ND & 26
OWN 47
+2
48.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 2 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 24
OWN 49
+16
49.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 16 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+52
48.5%
Louie Zervos 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 36 yds · 5:1956% → 59%
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
55.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+14
58.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 14 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
60.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 45Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+3
61.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Ohio 42Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 4
OPP 42
+2
60.1%
Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q4 6:41
4TH & 2
OPP 40
+2
57.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 2 yds to the Ohio 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
61.0%
Kevin Marks run for no gain to the Ohio 38Similar
Q4 6:41
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+2
60.8%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q4 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
59.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 7 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q4 1:22
4TH & 1
OPP 29
+46
59.0%
Jackson Baltar 46 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5652% → 52%
Q4 1:22
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+7
47.7%
O'Shaan Allison run for 7 yds to the Ohio 37Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 3
OWN 37
0
44.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q4 1:22
3RD & 3
OWN 37
+1
46.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the Ohio 38Similar
Q4 0:26
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
48.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20END OF GAME
14 plays · 0 yds · 15:2055% → 11%
Q4 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-1
55.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 11Similar
Q4 0:03
2ND & 11
OWN 11
-1
55.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 10Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
64.7%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Ohio 21Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 6
OPP 21
0
64.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
OT 0:00
3RD & 6
OPP 21
+10
62.4%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the Ohio 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
64.7%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Ohio 8Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+5
64.7%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
83.8%
Kyle Vantrease run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT MISSED)Similar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+6
75.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for 6 yds to the Buff 19Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 4
OPP 19
+5
74.5%
O'Shaan Allison run for 5 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
OT 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+8
75.8%
O'Shaan Allison run for 8 yds to the Buff 6Similar
OT 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 6
+1
74.5%
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd to the Buff 5Similar
OT 0:00
3RD & 1
OPP 5
+5
10.7%
O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)
-63.8
TD · Q4 14:47
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)
+37.1
TD · Q4 10:39
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-27.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com