View as
Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadOHIO aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreOHIO score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
OT 0:00 · O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialTime remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsGarbage-time factor
This game in five plays
- TD · Q3 10:44: Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +12.5 pts (now 57%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · Q4 14:47: Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK) — BUF win probability +37.1 pts (now 83%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q4 10:39: O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +27.7 pts (now 58%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: Kyle Vantrease run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT MISSED) — BUF win probability +19.1 pts (now 84%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · OT 0:00: O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick) — OHIO win probability +63.8 pts (now 89%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 7 of 8OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 5
- Q1 11:05BUF 4th & 7 at OHIO 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 43.7% before the snapGo for it43.6%−<0.128% to convertField goalTheir call43.7%91% to makePunt43.1%−0.6average punt
- Q1 11:05OHIO 4th & 11 at BUF 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 56.5% before the snapGo for it56.5%−<0.127% to convertField goal56.5%−0.130% to makePuntTheir call56.5%average punt
- Q2 12:30BUF 4th & 3 at OHIO 4, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 48.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call48.1%45% to convertField goal47.7%−0.493% to makePunt44.9%−3.2average punt
- Q2 4:35OHIO 4th & 4 at BUF 4, down 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 42.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call41.9%40% to convertField goal41.2%−0.693% to makePunt34.7%−7.2average punt
- Q2 4:29BUF 4th & 4 at OHIO 40, up 7Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call60.4%48% to convertField goal59.1%−1.334% to makePunt59.1%−1.3average punt
- Q3 1:49BUF 4th & 5 at BUF 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 50.1% before the snapGo for it49.0%−1.840% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call50.8%average punt
- Q4 14:47OHIO 4th & 10 at BUF 47, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.8% before the snapGo for it25.0%−1.429% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call26.3%average punt
- Q4 14:00BUF 4th & 6 at BUF 14, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.4% before the snapGo for it77.3%−1.839% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call79.1%average punt
- Q4 10:39BUF 4th & 3 at BUF 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 53.0% before the snapGo for it54.0%−0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.1%average punt
- Q4 6:41OHIO 4th & 8 at BUF 35, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 50.7% before the snapGo for it49.4%34% to convertField goalTheir call48.1%−1.345% to makePunt45.3%−4.1average punt
- Q4 6:41BUF 4th & 2 at OHIO 40, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 58.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call57.5%57% to convertField goal49.2%−8.234% to makePunt49.9%−7.5average punt
- Q4 1:22BUF 4th & 1 at OHIO 29, tiedNumbers favored go for it by 8.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 60.4% before the snapGo for it63.4%71% to convertField goalTheir call55.1%−8.358% to makePunt31.7%−31.7average punt
- Q4 0:26OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 38, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snapGo for it43.8%−1.857% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call45.7%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
- Q2 12:30BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.6%97% to makeGo for two52.6%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 10:44OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call46.8%97% to makeGo for two46.6%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 14:47BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call69.5%97% to makeGo for two69.3%−0.245% to convert
- Q4 10:39OHIO Touchdown, down 1 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call43.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two43.3%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBUFDrive 1MISSED FG9 plays · 68 yds · 3:5540% → 42%
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
40.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 2 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+61
40.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 61 yds to the Ohio 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
40.2%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (AWOSIKA, Kayode) 5 yards to the OHIO9, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 2PUNT11 plays · 38 yds · 0:0059% → 59%
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+2
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 2 yds to the Ohio 36Similar
Q1 11:05
2ND & 8
OWN 36
+10
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 10 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-5
40.9%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 15
OPP 46
+4
41.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 4 yds to the Buff 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD16 plays · 90 yds · 8:1443% → 52%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+11
43.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 11 yds to the Buff 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
43.9%
[PSTL], PENALTY OHIO offside (EVANS, W.) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
44.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 5 yds to the Ohio 17Similar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
47.1%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for no gain to the Ohio 11Similar
Q2 12:30
4TH & 3
OPP 4
+4
52.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 4 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 4DOWNS18 plays · 71 yds · 7:5548% → 41%
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
51.7%
[PSTL], ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to BUCKNER, J., PENALTY UB pass interference (HILL, Tyrone) 15 yards to the OHIO40, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:30
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+16
49.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 16 yds to the Buff 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 7
OPP 10
+5
54.7%
[SGUN], ROURKE, N. pass complete to ALLISON, O. for no gain to the UB10 (WRIGHT, Kadofi), PENALTY UB holding (BAKER, Roy) 5 yards to the UB5, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5DOWNS12 plays · 56 yds · 0:0060% → 61%
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
60.6%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 4 yds to the Buff 20Similar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+6
60.9%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 6 yds to the Buff 38Similar
Q2 4:29
2ND & 4
OWN 38
+16
62.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 16 yds to the Ohio 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+6
62.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 6 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 6END OF HALF1 play · -6 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q2 0:20
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-6
62.3%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Malcolm Koonce and Chibueze Onwuka for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 7TD9 plays · 78 yds · 4:1139% → 57%
BUFDrive 8FUMBLE7 plays · 50 yds · 0:0050% → 55%
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
55.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 4 yds to the Ohio 25 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, forced by Eric Popp, recovered by Ohio Javon HaganSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+23
52.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 23 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+6
54.3%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Ron Cook Jr. for 6 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 9INT12 plays · 53 yds · 0:0052% → 58%
Q3 8:11
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+9
47.5%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 9 yds to the Ohio 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
2ND & 8
OWN 39
+7
45.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 7 yds to the Ohio 46Similar
Q3 8:11
3RD & 2
OPP 44
+5
44.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Walton for 5 yds to the Buff 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
42.4%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Kadofi Wright return for no gain to the Buff 9Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 10PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0052% → 49%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 11FUMBLE2 plays · -13 yds · 0:2655% → 54%
BUFDrive 12TD1 play · 34 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+34
82.7%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 13PUNT6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0028% → 27%
BUFDrive 14PUNT4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0080% → 78%
Q4 14:00
4TH & 6
OWN 14
+3
77.8%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 37 yds , DL Knock returns for 3 yds to the Buff 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15TD4 plays · 48 yds · 1:5527% → 58%
Q4 12:34
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+34
72.6%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 34 yds to the Buff 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0055% → 52%
Q4 10:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
54.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-5
53.4%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB false start (NUNN, Antonio) 5 yards to the UB25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:39
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+7
52.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Carlton Todd for 7 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q4 10:39
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
52.4%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 34 yds, fair catch by DL Knock at the Ohio 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17MISSED FG6 plays · 31 yds · 3:0151% → 52%
Q4 9:42
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
44.6%
[PSTL], ALLISON, O. rush for 4 yards to the UB33 (BANKS, Joey), PENALTY OHIO holding (MESERVY, H.) 10 yards to the UB47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 9:42
1ST & 20
OPP 47
-6
46.4%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Taylor Riggins for a loss of 6 yards to the Ohio 47Similar
Q4 9:42
3RD & 24
OWN 49
+16
49.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 16 yds to the Buff 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 18MISSED FG12 plays · 36 yds · 5:1956% → 59%
Q4 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 36
+7
59.8%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Kevin Marks for 7 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:5652% → 52%
Q4 0:26
4TH & 2
OWN 38
0
48.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20END OF GAME14 plays · 0 yds · 15:2055% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · OT 0:00
O'Shaan Allison 5 Yd Run (Louie Zervos Kick)
-63.8
TD · Q4 14:47
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 34 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)
+37.1
TD · Q4 10:39
O'Shaan Allison run for 1 yd for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
-27.7