Try the model
BALL

Ball State 27 at Northern Illinois 20

NIU
2019 · Week 6 · Oct 5, 2019 · Huskie Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NIU
modelNIU aheadBALL aheadconfidence bandkey playNIU scoreBALL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGFGFGTDFGTDFGFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 6:40 · Matt Ference punt for 49 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+33.0+16.50−16.5−33.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 31Home team on offense+3.4Pregame prior+10.7Score differential+1.7Garbage-time factor+1.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 6:01: Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Plitt pass to Justin Hall for Two-Point Conversion) — BALL win probability +22.8 pts (now 42%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. FG · Q3 0:26: Ryan Rimmler 42 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +7.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:34: Caleb Huntley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK) — BALL win probability +28.9 pts (now 76%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 7:27: Ryan Rimmler 22 yd FG GOOD — BALL win probability +8.2 pts (now 87%) (top driver: BALL has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 2:45: John Richardson 38 yd FG GOOD — NIU win probability +10.5 pts (now 19%) (top driver: NIU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NIU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10BALL made the numbers' call on 8 of 12
  1. Q1 13:45BALL 4th & 7 at BALL 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.7%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.8%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:36BALL 4th & 16 at BALL 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%−0.9
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:40NIU 4th & 2 at NIU 27, up 14
    Close callPunted · 67.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.3%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 14:52BALL 4th & 6 at NIU 6, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.8%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    30.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−5.3
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:45NIU 4th & 5 at BALL 49, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 67.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.8%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    67.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:23BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 24, down 11
    Close callPunted · 30.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.1%
    51% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.0%−0.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 7:09NIU 4th & 6 at BALL 6, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.0%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.1%
    91% to make
    Punt
    67.7%−4.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:32BALL 4th & 16 at NIU 34, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−0.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    21.9%
    47% to make
    Punt
    21.1%−0.8
    average punt
  9. Q2 2:42NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 38, up 14
    Close callPunted · 78.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.9%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    77.9%−<0.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00NIU 4th & 4 at NIU 31, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.0%−0.7
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 13:30BALL 4th & 6 at NIU 49, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.3%
    average punt
  12. Q3 11:07NIU 4th & 6 at NIU 15, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.2%−1.0
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:45BALL 4th & 13 at NIU 14, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 15.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−2.0
    18% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.1%
    84% to make
    Punt
    8.4%−6.7
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:49BALL 4th & 17 at midfield, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.3%−3.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.3%
    average punt
  15. Q3 3:37NIU 4th & 5 at NIU 10, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.5%−0.3
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.8%
    average punt
  16. Q3 0:26BALL 4th & 9 at NIU 25, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.5%−0.8
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.2%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.8%−10.5
    average punt
  17. Q4 15:00NIU 4th & 10 at NIU 3, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−5.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 7:27BALL 4th & 5 at NIU 5, up 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.8%−<0.1
    92% to make
    Punt
    67.5%−10.4
    average punt
  19. Q4 7:27NIU 4th & 10 at BALL 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    15.1%
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    14.9%−0.3
    32% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−0.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 5:09BALL 4th & 3 at BALL 48, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    87.5%−1.0
    average punt
  21. Q4 2:45NIU 4th & 7 at BALL 20, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.8%−1.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    9.9%
    75% to make
    Punt
    5.6%−4.2
    average punt
  22. Q4 2:44BALL 4th & 9 at NIU 45, up 7
    Close callPunted · 88.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    87.0%−0.9
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    87.8%−0.2
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NIU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2BALL made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 13:45NIU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    61.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 8:36NIU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 6:01BALL Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    32.6%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    32.4%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 14:34BALL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.1%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BALLDrive 1INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0038% → 38%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
62.5%
Drew Plitt pass intercepted Antonio Jones-Davis return for no gain to the BalSt 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 2TD
3 plays · 24 yds · 1:0663% → 63%
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+10
62.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 10 yds to the BalSt 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
62.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 19Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 15
OPP 19
+19
63.0%
Tre Harbison run for 19 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
62.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 26Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+2
62.9%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
62.9%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 7
OWN 28
+4
62.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 53 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 4 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 4TD
10 plays · 77 yds · 3:5963% → 67%
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
63.3%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 10
OWN 23
+12
63.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 12 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
63.3%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
63.4%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+13
63.3%
Tyrice Richie run for 13 yds to the BalSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-3
63.5%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 49Similar
Q1 12:35
2ND & 13
OWN 49
-2
63.4%
Jordan Nettles run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 47Similar
Q1 12:35
3RD & 15
OWN 47
+20
63.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 20 yds to the BalSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:35
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+5
63.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 5 yds to the BalSt 28Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 5
OPP 28
+28
67.2%
Tre Harbison run for 28 yds for a TD, (John Richardson KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 5PUNT
7 plays · 5 yds · 0:0034% → 33%
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
66.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 34Similar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
66.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:36
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
66.4%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:36
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+1
66.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the BalSt 37Similar
Q1 8:36
3RD & 9
OWN 37
-7
66.5%
Drew Plitt sacked by Antonio Jones-Davis for a loss of 7 yards to the BalSt 30Similar
Q1 8:36
4TH & 16
OWN 30
+51
66.8%
Nathan Snyder punt for 41 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NORTHERNIL 29 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the NoIll 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 0:0069% → 68%
Q1 6:40
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+1
68.8%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 20Similar
Q1 6:40
2ND & 9
OWN 20
+2
68.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tre Harbison for 2 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OWN 22
+5
68.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Spencer Tears for 5 yds to the NoIll 27Similar
Q1 6:40
4TH & 2
OWN 27
0
68.3%
Matt Ference punt for 49 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 7FG
15 plays · 70 yds · 4:4731% → 32%
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
69.1%
Drew Plitt pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+7
69.2%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Yo'Heinz Tyler for 7 yds to the BalSt 31Similar
Q1 4:39
3RD & 3
OWN 31
+6
69.1%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Justin Hall for 6 yds to the BalSt 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
69.0%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the BalSt 38Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 9
OWN 38
+14
69.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 14 yds to the NoIll 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+5
68.6%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to DAVIS, Antwan, PENALTY NIU substitution infraction 5 yards to the NIU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 5
OPP 43
+3
68.2%
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 40
+4
68.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the NoIll 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+13
68.4%
Justin Hall run for 13 yds to the NoIll 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+8
67.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 8 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & 2
OPP 15
+5
67.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
67.9%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 7Similar
Q1 4:39
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
67.9%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the NoIll 6Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
70.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Yo'Heinz Tyler, broken up by Antwain WalkerSimilar
Q2 14:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
67.9%
Ryan Rimmler 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 8PUNT
9 plays · 29 yds · 0:0069% → 69%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
68.7%
Tre Harbison run for 9 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+4
69.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
68.8%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Tyrice Richie for 8 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 2
OWN 43
+3
69.5%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
69.6%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+5
69.3%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 5
OPP 49
0
69.0%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:45
4TH & 5
OPP 49
+32
68.5%
Matt Ference punt for 37 yds, downed at the BalSt 12 NORTHERNIL Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the BalSt 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0030% → 29%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
70.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 7
OWN 20
+4
70.1%
Justin Hall run for 4 yds to the BalSt 24Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 3
OWN 24
0
70.3%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Jalen McKieSimilar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 3
OWN 24
+5
71.0%
Nathan Snyder punt for 47 yds , Cole Tucker returns for 5 yds to the NoIll 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 10FG
7 plays · 60 yds · 2:4872% → 77%
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
72.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer Tears, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q2 9:57
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+19
72.1%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 19 yds to the BalSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+40
73.4%
Tre Harbison run for 40 yds to the BalSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
73.2%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the BalSt 1Similar
Q2 9:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
73.2%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the BalSt 6Similar
Q2 9:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
72.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q2 7:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
76.5%
John Richardson 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 11MISSED FG
10 plays · 31 yds · 3:2924% → 22%
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
75.8%
Drew Plitt run for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
50
+3
75.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+4
75.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+15
75.0%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Riley Miller for 15 yds to the NoIll 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
73.8%
Walter Fletcher run for 1 yd to the NoIll 27Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 9
OPP 27
-3
74.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 7 yds to the NoIll 20 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 30Similar
Q2 7:01
2ND & 12
OPP 30
0
74.6%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin Hall, broken up by Mykelti WilliamsSimilar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 12
OPP 30
-4
75.6%
Drew Plitt sacked by Jack Heflin for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 34 Drew Plitt fumbled, , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q2 3:32
4TH & 16
OPP 34
+52
78.5%
Ryan Rimmler 52 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:5079% → 81%
Q2 3:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
79.1%
Tre Harbison run for 1 yd to the NoIll 35Similar
Q2 3:32
2ND & 9
OWN 35
+4
79.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 39Similar
Q2 2:46
3RD & 5
OWN 39
-1
81.2%
Tre Harbison run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 38Similar
Q2 2:42
4TH & 6
OWN 38
0
80.6%
Matt Ference punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the BalSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 13FUMBLE
13 plays · 62 yds · 0:5220% → 24%
Q2 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+2
80.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 17Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 8
OWN 17
+9
80.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the BalSt 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
80.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the BalSt 29Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-1
79.7%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 1 yard to the BalSt 28Similar
Q2 1:44
3RD & 8
OWN 28
+10
80.6%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to HALL, Justin, PENALTY NIU holding (WALKER, Antwain) 10 yards to the BALL38, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
79.7%
Drew Plitt run for 6 yds to the BalSt 44Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+6
78.4%
Walter Fletcher run for 6 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
50
+15
78.4%
PLITT, Drew pass intercepted by WALKER, Antwain at the NIU23, WALKER, Antwain return to the NIU23, PENALTY NIU pass interference (WALKER, Antwain) 15 yards to the NIU35, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+6
76.6%
Drew Plitt pass complete to Antwan Davis for 6 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q2 1:44
2ND & 4
OPP 29
+4
76.3%
Walter Fletcher run for 4 yds to the NoIll 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:44
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
76.3%
Drew Plitt run for 2 yds to the NoIll 23 Drew Plitt fumbled, forced by Matt Lorbeck, recovered by NoIll Vinny LabusSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0084% → 84%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
83.6%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0082% → 81%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
82.1%
Tre Harbison run for 4 yds to the NoIll 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+2
82.1%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
81.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell Brinkman NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
80.9%
Matt Ference punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Riley Miller at the BalSt 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 16PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
81.4%
Walter Fletcher run for 7 yds to the BalSt 42Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 3
OWN 42
-3
80.5%
Walter Fletcher run for a loss of 3 yards to the BalSt 39Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+8
81.2%
PLITT, Drew pass incomplete to MILLER, Riley, PENALTY NIU pass interference 8 yards to the BALL47, 1ST DOWN BALL, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+2
80.6%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the BalSt 49Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 8
OWN 49
+2
80.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the NoIll 49Similar
Q3 13:30
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
80.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 13:30
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
81.4%
Nathan Snyder punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 17PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0084% → 83%
Q3 11:07
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+2
84.2%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 13Similar
Q3 11:07
2ND & 8
OWN 13
+2
84.1%
Tre Harbison run for 2 yds to the NoIll 15Similar
Q3 11:07
3RD & 6
OWN 15
0
83.5%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie, broken up by Nic JonesSimilar
Q3 11:07
4TH & 6
OWN 15
0
82.8%
Matt Ference punt for 36 yds, downed at the BalSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 18FG
10 plays · 37 yds · 2:5418% → 19%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
82.2%
Drew Plitt run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 9
50
+3
82.3%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NoIll 47Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 6
OPP 47
+15
82.2%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the NoIll 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+10
81.1%
Caleb Huntley run for 10 yds to the NoIll 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+11
80.7%
NORTHERNIL Penalty, personal foul (Weston Kramer) to the NoIll 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+5
80.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 5 yds to the NoIll 6Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 5
OPP 6
+1
80.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the NoIll 5Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 4
OPP 5
-9
81.7%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the NoIll 4 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 14Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 13
OPP 14
-2
82.7%
Drew Plitt run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 14 Drew Plitt fumbled, recovered by BalSt Drew PlittSimilar
Q3 6:45
4TH & 13
OPP 14
+25
80.8%
Ryan Rimmler 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 19FUMBLE
3 plays · 5 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q3 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+6
81.3%
Tre Harbison run for 6 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 6:44
2ND & 4
OWN 8
+4
81.2%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the NoIll 3 Tre Harbison fumbled, forced by Christian Albright, recovered by BalSt Jordan Williams , return for 4 yds to the NoIll 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 20TD
1 play · 3 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q3 6:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
58.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Plitt pass to Justin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 21FUMBLE
3 plays · 18 yds · 0:0066% → 69%
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
66.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 18 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:01
1ST & 10
OWN 43
-3
68.6%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 3 yards to the NoIll 43 Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by BalSt Christian AlbrightSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -7 yds · 1:3740% → 35%
Q3 5:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-10
60.1%
HUNTLEY, Caleb rush for 2 yards to the NIU41 (FOSTER, Traysho;LEROY, Ben), PENALTY BALL holding 10 yards to the BALL47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:26
1ST & 20
OWN 47
0
62.4%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the BalSt 47Similar
Q3 5:26
2ND & 20
OWN 47
+3
62.9%
Malik Dunner run for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 3:49
3RD & 17
50
0
63.4%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Justin HallSimilar
Q3 3:49
4TH & 17
50
+45
65.2%
Nathan Snyder punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NORTHERNIL 10 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (5 Yards) to the NoIll 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0064% → 62%
Q3 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+3
63.9%
Tre Harbison run for 3 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q3 3:37
2ND & 7
OWN 8
-4
63.5%
Ross Bowers sacked by James Jennette III and Chris Crumb for a loss of 4 yards to the NoIll 4Similar
Q3 3:37
3RD & 11
OWN 4
+6
62.0%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 6 yds to the NoIll 10Similar
Q3 3:37
4TH & 5
OWN 10
+46
62.2%
Matt Ference punt for 31 yds, downed at the NoIll 41 for a 1ST down BALL ST Penalty, kick catching interference (15 Yards) to the NoIll 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 24FG
4 plays · 1 yds · 1:1943% → 48%
Q3 1:45
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
57.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NoIll 23Similar
Q3 1:45
2ND & 7
OPP 23
-2
57.5%
Caleb Huntley run for a loss of 2 yards to the NoIll 25Similar
Q3 1:45
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
60.2%
Drew Plitt pass incomplete to Riley MillerSimilar
Q3 0:26
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+42
52.5%
Ryan Rimmler 42 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:2357% → 53%
Q3 0:23
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
56.6%
Tre Harbison run for no gain to the NoIll 3Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
56.1%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Jordan NettlesSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 3
0
54.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Mitchell BrinkmanSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 3
+41
53.3%
Matt Ference punt for 41 yds , Riley Miller returns for a loss of 1 yard to the NoIll 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 26TD
1 play · 45 yds · 0:0076% → 76%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
24.4%
Caleb Huntley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 27INT
9 plays · 24 yds · 2:3932% → 32%
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
31.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 10
OWN 25
-5
31.3%
Ross Bowers run for a loss of 5 yards to the NoIll 24 Ross Bowers fumbled, recovered by NoIll Tyrice RichieSimilar
Q4 14:34
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+23
29.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 23 yds to the NoIll 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:34
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+3
35.9%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 7
50
+4
36.6%
Marcus Jones run for 4 yds to the BalSt 46Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 3
OPP 46
-5
34.1%
Tre Harbison run for 5 yds to the NoIll 41 NORTHERNIL Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the NoIll 49Similar
Q4 11:55
3RD & 8
OWN 49
+40
31.7%
Ross Bowers pass intercepted Amechi Uzodinma II return for 40 yds to the NoIll 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 28FG
7 plays · 17 yds · 3:4979% → 87%
Q4 11:16
1ST & 10
OPP 22
0
20.8%
Caleb Huntley run for no gain to the NoIll 22Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & 10
OPP 22
+3
21.2%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NoIll 19Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & 7
OPP 19
+9
21.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 9 yds to the NoIll 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+2
20.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the NoIll 8Similar
Q4 11:16
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
20.8%
Drew Plitt run for 3 yds to the NoIll 5Similar
Q4 11:16
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
21.5%
Walter Fletcher run for no gain to the NoIll 5 BALL ST Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+22
13.3%
Ryan Rimmler 22 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 29DOWNS
8 plays · 34 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
13.4%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Mitchell Brinkman for 18 yds to the NoIll 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
14.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+16
14.5%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 16 yds to the BalSt 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:27
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
16.2%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 7:27
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
15.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Tyrice Richie, broken up by Antonio PhillipsSimilar
Q4 7:27
3RD & 10
OPP 41
0
15.2%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:27
4TH & 10
OPP 41
0
13.8%
Ross Bowers pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 30PUNT
5 plays · 7 yds · 0:5690% → 90%
Q4 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
10.0%
Caleb Huntley run for 4 yds to the BalSt 45Similar
Q4 6:05
2ND & 6
OWN 45
+3
10.0%
Walter Fletcher run for 3 yds to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 5:09
3RD & 3
OWN 48
0
9.6%
Walter Fletcher run for no gain to the BalSt 48Similar
Q4 5:09
4TH & 3
OWN 48
0
9.8%
Nathan Snyder punt for 32 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the NoIll 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 31FG
9 plays · 60 yds · 1:316% → 19%
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+6
6.2%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 6 yds to the NoIll 26Similar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 4
OWN 26
0
6.6%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole Tucker, broken up by Nic JonesSimilar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+24
6.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 24 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
50
+27
7.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 27 yds to the BalSt 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:16
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
9.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Marcus JonesSimilar
Q4 4:16
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+3
9.3%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Marcus Jones for 3 yds to the BalSt 20Similar
Q4 4:16
3RD & 7
OPP 20
0
8.7%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Cole TuckerSimilar
Q4 2:45
4TH & 7
OPP 20
+38
19.2%
John Richardson 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BALLDrive 32PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 2:44
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
7.8%
Caleb Huntley run for 1 yd to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 2:44
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+2
7.9%
Caleb Huntley run for 2 yds to the NoIll 43Similar
Q4 2:44
3RD & 7
OPP 43
+3
8.5%
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds to the NoIll 40Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 4
OPP 40
-5
9.7%
BALL ST Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the NoIll 45Similar
Q4 2:44
4TH & 9
OPP 45
0
9.9%
Nathan Snyder punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Cole Tucker at the NoIll 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NIUDrive 33END OF GAME
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+11
8.7%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Daniel Crawford for 11 yds to the NoIll 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
8.8%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Daniel Crawford, broken up by Amechi Uzodinma IISimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+10
8.6%
Ross Bowers pass complete to Cole Tucker for 10 yds to the NoIll 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
9.3%
Ross Bowers pass incomplete to Spencer TearsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 14:34
Caleb Huntley run for 45 yds for a TD, (Ryan Rimmler KICK)
-28.9
TD · Q3 6:01
Caleb Huntley run for 3 yds for a TD, (Drew Plitt pass to Justin Hall for Two-Point Conversion)
-22.8
FG · Q4 2:45
John Richardson 38 yd FG GOOD
+10.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com