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BUF

Buffalo 20 at Miami (OH) 34

M-OH
2019 · Week 5 · Sep 28, 2019 · Yager Stadium
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Win probability · M-OH
modelM-OH aheadBUF aheadconfidence bandkey playM-OH scoreBUF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:26 · Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+31.5+15.80−15.8−31.5Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:50: Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +9.7 pts (now 48%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q3 11:46: Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD Mike Brown return for 25 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +17.0 pts (now 62%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:17: Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +14.8 pts (now 82%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:14: Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK) — M-OH win probability +13.2 pts (now 96%) (top driver: M-OH has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 14:52: Kevin Marks run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT BLOCKED) — BUF win probability +9.2 pts (now 13%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
M-OH made the numbers' call on 8 of 12BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
  1. Q1 15:00BUF 4th & 7 at BUF 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.1%−0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:18M-OH 4th & 7 at BUF 35, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    45.8%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    45.8%−<0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    45.7%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:13M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    43.7%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:37BUF 4th & 18 at BUF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.6%−1.0
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    56.6%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:52M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 40, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 43.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    43.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    41.4%−1.9
    34% to make
    Punt
    41.5%−1.8
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:56M-OH 4th & 8 at BUF 35, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 42.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.8%
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    42.7%−0.1
    45% to make
    Punt
    42.1%−0.7
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:14BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 27, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.7
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.7%
    average punt
  8. Q2 13:59M-OH 4th & 1 at BUF 46, down 4
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 46.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    44.4%−2.2
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.3%−1.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 11:45M-OH 4th & 10 at BUF 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 38.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    37.8%−0.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.3%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:33BUF 4th & 8 at BUF 22, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    61.0%−1.0
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    62.0%
    average punt
  11. Q2 5:12M-OH 4th & 20 at M-OH 43, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.9%−2.4
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.3%
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:40M-OH 4th & 3 at BUF 3, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 45.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.4%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.7%−0.8
    93% to make
    Punt
    37.8%−7.6
    average punt
  13. Q3 14:53M-OH 4th & 4 at M-OH 35, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 47.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 11:46BUF 4th & 9 at BUF 26, down 6
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.5%−2.0
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.5%
    average punt
  15. Q3 7:17BUF 4th & 11 at M-OH 33, down 13
    Close callWent for it · 19.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    19.3%
    49% to make
    Punt
    18.5%−0.8
    average punt
  16. Q4 14:46M-OH 4th & 18 at M-OH 36, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.0%−2.6
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 11:24BUF 4th & 6 at M-OH 13, down 14
    Close callWent for it · 10.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.5%−1.0
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    10.4%
    85% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−6.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:30M-OH 4th & 9 at M-OH 40, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    95.4%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    95.7%
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:29M-OH 4th & 19 at BUF 20, up 14
    Close callWent for it · 98.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.5%−0.7
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    98.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
M-OH made the numbers' call on 4 of 4BUF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 7:19BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    55.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    55.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:51BUF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    62.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:50M-OH Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:46M-OH Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 7:17M-OH Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 2:14M-OH Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:52BUF Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · missed
    KickTheir call
    9.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
BUFDrive 1PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:0057% → 57%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
42.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+12
42.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 12 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
42.8%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+4
42.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 43
0
42.8%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+20
42.8%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 43 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 20 yds to the MiaOh 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 2DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+5
43.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 5
OWN 39
+9
43.9%
Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
43.9%
Jaylon Bester run for no gain to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+2
43.8%
Maurice Thomas run for 2 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 8
50
+7
43.8%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jack Sorenson for 7 yds to the Buff 43Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 1
OPP 43
+5
43.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, illegal participation (5 Yards) to the Buff 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:18
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+4
44.0%
Davion Johnson run for 4 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 6
OPP 34
-10
44.1%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 44Similar
Q1 12:18
2ND & 16
OPP 44
+3
43.8%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q1 12:18
3RD & 13
OPP 41
+6
43.8%
Jaylon Bester run for 6 yds to the Buff 35Similar
Q1 12:18
4TH & 7
OPP 35
-4
43.8%
Brett Gabbert sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 3TD
3 plays · 61 yds · 0:4956% → 59%
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+17
44.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Carlton Todd for 17 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:08
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+24
43.9%
Matt Myers run for 24 yds to the MiaOh 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:19
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+20
40.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 20 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q1 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
42.1%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 29Similar
Q1 7:13
2ND & 8
OWN 29
0
42.1%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:13
3RD & 8
OWN 29
+4
41.7%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q1 7:13
4TH & 4
OWN 33
+13
41.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 48 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 13 yds to the Buff 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5PUNT
8 plays · 2 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
41.3%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+2
41.0%
Matt Myers run for 2 yds to the Buff 39Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 3
OWN 39
+3
41.0%
Matt Myers run for 3 yds to the Buff 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-10
40.8%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 32Similar
Q1 5:37
1ST & 20
OWN 32
0
41.6%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:37
2ND & 20
OWN 32
-7
41.6%
Matt Myers sacked by Bart Baratti for a loss of 7 yards to the Buff 25Similar
Q1 5:37
3RD & 27
OWN 25
+9
41.9%
Jaret Patterson run for 9 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 5:37
4TH & 18
OWN 34
+22
42.1%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 37 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 22 yds to the Buff 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 6FG
8 plays · 14 yds · 1:5642% → 44%
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
42.4%
Jack Sorenson pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+3
42.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 46
+6
42.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q1 1:52
4TH & 1
OPP 40
+3
41.7%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
42.5%
Davion Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 37Similar
Q1 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
42.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q1 1:52
3RD & 7
OPP 34
-1
42.4%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 35Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 8
OPP 35
+53
44.4%
Sam Sloman 53 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 7PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:4256% → 55%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
44.0%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 8
OWN 27
0
44.4%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
44.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:14
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
45.5%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the MiaOh 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0046% → 46%
Q2 13:59
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+5
46.1%
Tyre Shelton run for 5 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 13:59
2ND & 5
50
+4
46.4%
Tyre Shelton run for 4 yds to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 13:59
3RD & 1
OPP 46
0
46.3%
Tyre Shelton run for no gain to the Buff 46Similar
Q2 13:59
4TH & 1
OPP 46
0
45.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD
2 plays · 88 yds · 0:4955% → 63%
Q2 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+6
44.7%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 18Similar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 4
OWN 18
+82
37.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 82 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 10PUNT
7 plays · 36 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+11
37.0%
Maurice Thomas run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+25
37.5%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 25 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
38.7%
Maurice Thomas run for no gain to the Buff 49Similar
Q2 11:45
2ND & 10
OPP 49
0
38.4%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen WalkerSimilar
Q2 11:45
3RD & 10
OPP 49
0
37.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:45
4TH & 10
OPP 49
0
37.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 49 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q2 10:33
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
36.5%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q2 10:33
2ND & 8
OWN 22
0
36.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Zac LefebvreSimilar
Q2 10:33
3RD & 8
OWN 22
0
36.9%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:33
4TH & 8
OWN 22
+24
37.4%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 39 yds, downed at the MIAMIOH 39 BUFFALO Penalty, kick catching interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 12TD
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:4138% → 48%
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
38.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 46
+6
38.1%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 6 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 4
OPP 40
+8
38.1%
Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the Buff 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
39.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+4
39.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 3
OPP 25
0
38.2%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 3
OPP 25
+13
37.3%
BUFFALO Penalty, personal foul (Ronald McGee) to the Buff 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 12
0
39.3%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 12
+9
39.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 1
OPP 3
+2
38.3%
Jaylon Bester run for 2 yds to the Buff 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
48.0%
Brett Gabbert run for 1 yd for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13INT
5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0057% → 58%
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
43.3%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
Q2 6:50
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+5
42.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 5 yds to the Buff 34Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
42.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 2 yds to the Buff 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:50
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
42.5%
Matt Myers pass intercepted Mike Brown return for no gain to the Buff 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 14PUNT
4 plays · -10 yds · 0:0047% → 43%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
47.0%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Maurice Thomas, broken up by Devon RussellSimilar
Q2 5:12
2ND & 10
OPP 47
0
46.8%
Brett Gabbert pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:12
3RD & 10
OPP 47
-10
45.0%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 10 yards to the MiaOh 43Similar
Q2 5:12
4TH & 20
OWN 43
0
43.0%
Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Buff 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 4:18
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+1
44.7%
Kevin Marks run for 1 yd to the Buff 6Similar
Q2 4:18
2ND & 9
OWN 6
+4
44.8%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 10Similar
Q2 4:18
3RD & 5
OWN 10
-3
44.7%
Matt Myers run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 3 Matt Myers fumbled, forced by Ryan McWood, recovered by MiaOh Ryan McWoodSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 16FG
5 plays · 0 yds · 2:0949% → 49%
Q2 2:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
48.6%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 2:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
47.8%
Davion Johnson run for no gain to the Buff 2Similar
Q2 2:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
46.0%
Davion Johnson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Buff 3Similar
Q2 0:40
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+21
48.5%
Sam Sloman 21 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 17END OF HALF
2 plays · -2 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
44.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 17 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+11
47.2%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Dominique Robinson for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+2
47.6%
Tyre Shelton run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 31Similar
Q3 14:53
2ND & 8
OWN 31
+5
47.7%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jaylon Bester for 5 yds to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q3 14:53
3RD & 3
OWN 36
-1
48.5%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q3 14:53
4TH & 4
OWN 35
+7
46.2%
Kyle Kramer punt for 54 yds , Ron Cook Jr. returns for 7 yds to the Buff 18 Ron Cook Jr. fumbled, forced by Myles Reid, recovered by BuffSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 19INT TD
3 plays · 4 yds · 1:2355% → 38%
Q3 13:09
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+4
45.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 13:09
2ND & 6
OWN 22
0
45.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 6
OWN 22
+25
62.1%
Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD Mike Brown return for 25 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0039% → 37%
Q3 11:46
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
60.8%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 11:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
-2
60.3%
Kevin Marks run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 26Similar
Q3 11:46
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
61.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Kevin MarksSimilar
Q3 11:46
4TH & 9
OWN 26
+26
62.9%
Kyle Vantrease punt for 39 yds , Maurice Thomas returns for 26 yds to the Buff 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 21TD
8 plays · 39 yds · 2:5667% → 82%
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
67.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 36Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+4
67.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the Buff 32Similar
Q3 10:13
3RD & 3
OPP 32
+3
66.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 3 yds to the Buff 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
67.6%
Brett Gabbert run for 7 yds to the Buff 22Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+5
67.6%
BUFFALO Penalty, (5 Yards) to the Buff 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:13
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
67.6%
Davion Johnson run for 3 yds to the Buff 14Similar
Q3 10:13
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
67.6%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Davion Johnson for 1 yd to the Buff 13Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 6
OPP 13
+13
82.4%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 22DOWNS
10 plays · 42 yds · 0:0020% → 20%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
80.4%
Matt Myers pass complete to Antonio Nunn for 10 yds to the Buff 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 6 yds to the Buff 41Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+7
78.2%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+4
78.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 48Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 6
OPP 48
+16
77.8%
Jaret Patterson run for 16 yds to the MiaOh 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
76.6%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Carlton Todd, broken up by Zedrick RaymondSimilar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 10
OPP 32
-1
76.6%
Jaret Patterson run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 33Similar
Q3 7:17
3RD & 11
OPP 33
0
78.6%
Matt Myers pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:17
4TH & 11
OPP 33
0
79.9%
Matt Myers pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 23TD
4 plays · 67 yds · 5:0382% → 96%
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
82.1%
Brett Gabbert run for 6 yds to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 4
OWN 39
+5
82.9%
Maurice Thomas run for 5 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:17
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+52
83.0%
Brett Gabbert pass complete to James Maye for 52 yds to the Buff 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
96.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 24TD
6 plays · 75 yds · 2:224% → 13%
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
96.1%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 28Similar
Q3 2:14
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+3
96.0%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 31Similar
Q3 2:14
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+9
96.0%
Kyle Vantrease run for 9 yds to the Buff 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:14
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+21
95.9%
Kevin Marks run for 21 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:52
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
86.8%
Kevin Marks run for 39 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar PAT BLOCKED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 25PUNT
8 plays · 4 yds · 0:0092% → 90%
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+3
91.5%
Tyre Shelton run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 35Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 7
OWN 35
+9
91.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 9 yds to the MiaOh 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
91.9%
Brett Gabbert pass incomplete to Jalen Walker, broken up by Tyrone HillSimilar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 10
OWN 44
-10
91.7%
MIAMI OH Penalty, Offensive holding (Danny Godlevske) to the MiaOh 34Similar
Q4 14:46
2ND & 20
OWN 34
+4
91.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 14:46
3RD & 16
OWN 38
-2
91.2%
Brett Gabbert run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 36Similar
Q4 14:46
4TH & 18
OWN 36
+51
90.3%
Kyle Kramer punt for 46 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the MIAMIOH 18 BUFFALO Penalty, IF (5 Yards) to the Buff 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 26DOWNS
14 plays · 64 yds · 0:0010% → 11%
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
89.9%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the Buff 25Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+5
89.8%
Kevin Marks run for 5 yds to the Buff 30Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 3
OWN 30
+3
89.3%
Kevin Marks run for 3 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+11
89.2%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Dominic Johnson for 11 yds to the Buff 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
88.8%
Kevin Marks run for 4 yds to the Buff 48Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+12
88.6%
Jaret Patterson run for 12 yds to the MiaOh 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
88.5%
Jaret Patterson run for 11 yds to the MiaOh 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
87.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 7 yds to the MiaOh 22Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+2
87.3%
Kevin Marks run for 2 yds to the MiaOh 20Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 1
OPP 20
+3
88.0%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+3
87.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 3 yds to the MiaOh 14Similar
Q4 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 14
+1
87.3%
Jaret Patterson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 13
0
88.0%
Jaret Patterson run for no gain to the MiaOh 13Similar
Q4 11:24
4TH & 6
OPP 13
0
89.0%
Kyle Vantrease pass incomplete to Antonio NunnSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 27PUNT
10 plays · 27 yds · 1:0895% → 97%
Q4 6:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+8
95.2%
Jaylon Bester run for 8 yds to the MiaOh 21Similar
Q4 6:26
2ND & 2
OWN 21
-2
96.2%
Jaylon Bester run for a loss of 2 yards to the MiaOh 19Similar
Q4 6:23
3RD & 4
OWN 19
+20
96.4%
Jaylon Bester run for 20 yds to the MiaOh 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:23
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-1
96.6%
Tyre Shelton run for a loss of 1 yard to the MiaOh 38Similar
Q4 5:30
2ND & 11
OWN 38
+1
97.0%
Jaylon Bester run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 39Similar
Q4 5:30
3RD & 10
OWN 39
+1
97.0%
Davion Johnson run for 1 yd to the MiaOh 40Similar
Q4 5:30
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
96.7%
Kyle Kramer punt for 52 yds, fair catch by Ron Cook Jr. at the Buff 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 28FUMBLE
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+11
98.5%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 11 yds to the Buff 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+8
98.4%
Kyle Vantrease pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 8 yds to the Buff 27Similar
Q4 3:50
2ND & 2
OWN 27
+6
98.3%
Kyle Vantrease run for 6 yds to the Buff 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-15
98.4%
BUFFALO Penalty, Offensive pass interference (-15 Yards) to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 25
OWN 18
-6
98.5%
Kyle Vantrease sacked by Lonnie Phelps for a loss of 6 yards to the Buff 11 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, recovered by MiaOh Josh Maize , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
M-OHDrive 29DOWNS
6 plays · -14 yds · 2:1398% → 99%
Q4 2:42
1ST & 10
OPP 11
-4
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 15Similar
Q4 2:42
2ND & 14
OPP 15
-3
98.4%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the Buff 18Similar
Q4 2:42
3RD & 17
OPP 18
-2
98.3%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Buff 20Similar
Q4 0:29
4TH & 19
OPP 20
-5
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the Buff 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 30END OF GAME
1 play · 4 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
98.6%
Theo Anderson run for 4 yds to the Buff 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:46
Matt Myers pass intercepted for a TD Mike Brown return for 25 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)
+17
TD · Q3 7:17
Brett Gabbert pass complete to Jalen Walker for 13 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)
+14.8
TD · Q3 2:14
Jaylon Bester run for 4 yds for a TD, (Sam Sloman KICK)
+13.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com