Try the model
TROY

Troy 35 at Akron 7

AKR
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · InfoCision Stadium
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Win probability · AKR
modelAKR aheadTROY aheadconfidence bandkey playAKR scoreTROY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 8:22 · Jonah Wieland punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 31
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 25Pregame prior−36.2Home team on offense−1.3Garbage-time factor−0.6Score differential−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 5:29: Jonah Wieland punt for 59 yds, downed at the Troy 4 — AKR win probability +1.6 pts (now 16%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q1 3:37: Tyler Sumpter punt for 51 yds, downed at the Akron 31 — TROY win probability +2.3 pts (now 85%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 2:25: Jonah Wieland punt for 59 yds, downed at the Troy 11 — AKR win probability +5.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 10:03: DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — AKR win probability +1.2 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:36: Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) — AKR win probability +1.0 pts (now 18%) (top driver: TROY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TROY made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 14:52AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 26, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.2%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.3%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:22AKR 4th & 12 at AKR 38, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.8%−0.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.0%
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:14TROY 4th & 4 at TROY 37, up 7
    Close callPunted · 85.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 14.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.8%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:37TROY 4th & 6 at TROY 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.6%−0.2
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00TROY 4th & 2 at AKR 14, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 84.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    84.0%−0.2
    84% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−2.1
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:31AKR 4th & 3 at TROY 36, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    13.3%−0.7
    42% to make
    Punt
    13.2%−0.8
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:25AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 30, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.4%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    12.5%
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:03AKR 4th & 9 at TROY 9, down 7
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 22.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    19.9%−1.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    21.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    12.6%−8.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 10 at AKR 37, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.5%−1.5
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.0%
    average punt
  11. Q4 14:47TROY 4th & 3 at TROY 32, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−0.4
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 12:38AKR 4th & 5 at AKR 29, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.4
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.7%
    average punt
  13. Q4 5:23TROY 4th & 3 at AKR 36, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.2%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    85.1%−2.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    84.3%−2.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:29TROY 4th & 1 at AKR 20, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−2.1
    75% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−8.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TROY made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 9:53TROY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q1 14:52
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
12.0%
Brandon Lee run for no gain to the Akron 28Similar
Q1 14:52
2ND & 10
OWN 28
-7
12.0%
Kato Nelson sacked by Will Choloh Jr. for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 21Similar
Q1 14:52
3RD & 17
OWN 21
+5
12.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for 5 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q1 14:52
4TH & 12
OWN 26
0
12.0%
Jonah Wieland punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 2TD
9 plays · 64 yds · 2:5687% → 87%
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
12.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 1
OWN 45
0
12.8%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Jaquez DunmoreSimilar
Q1 12:49
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+3
12.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
12.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 2
OPP 44
+14
12.8%
DK Billingsley run for 14 yds to the Akron 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+7
12.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Reggie Todd for 7 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q1 12:49
2ND & 3
OPP 23
+12
12.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 12 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:49
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+3
12.8%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Akron 8Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 7
OPP 8
+8
13.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to AJ Lewis for 8 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3INT
4 plays · 22 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
13.4%
Robbie Kelley run for 9 yds to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 9:53
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
13.6%
Brandon Lee run for 13 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-18
13.6%
Eric Bentley run for a loss of 18 yards to the Akron 26 Eric Bentley fumbled, recovered by Troy Jaquez DunmoreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 4PUNT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 9:23
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
13.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Sam Letton, broken up by Randy Cochran Jr.Similar
Q1 9:23
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
13.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q1 9:23
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+40
13.3%
Kaleb Barker pass intercepted Shawn Featherstone return for 40 yds to the Akron 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 17 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 8:22
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+3
14.0%
Deltron Sands run for 3 yds to the Akron 43Similar
Q1 8:22
2ND & 7
OWN 43
+3
14.0%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Andre Williams for 3 yds to the Akron 46Similar
Q1 8:22
3RD & 4
OWN 46
-8
14.0%
Robbie Kelley sacked by Zo Bridges for a loss of 8 yards to the Akron 38Similar
Q1 8:22
4TH & 12
OWN 38
0
13.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · 14 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q1 7:14
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
13.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 4
OWN 37
-5
13.7%
TROY Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards) to the Troy 32Similar
Q1 7:14
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+6
13.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 6 yds to the Troy 38Similar
Q1 7:14
3RD & 3
OWN 38
-1
13.7%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 37Similar
Q1 7:14
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
14.0%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 63 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7TD
8 plays · 69 yds · 0:0015% → 16%
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
14.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 5 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 5
OWN 25
-5
14.7%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 20Similar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+11
14.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 11 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
14.7%
Deltron Sands run for 16 yds to the Akron 47 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Akron 37Similar
Q1 5:29
1ST & 4
OWN 37
0
15.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q1 5:29
2ND & 4
OWN 37
0
14.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q1 5:29
3RD & 4
OWN 37
0
14.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 4
OWN 37
0
16.3%
Jonah Wieland punt for 59 yds, downed at the Troy 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 0:0083% → 85%
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+7
17.5%
DK Billingsley run for 7 yds to the Troy 11Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 3
OWN 11
0
17.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 3
OWN 11
+3
17.7%
Kaleb Barker run for 3 yds to the Troy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
17.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Troy 19Similar
Q1 3:37
2ND & 5
OWN 19
-1
17.4%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 18Similar
Q1 3:37
3RD & 6
OWN 18
0
17.7%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q1 3:37
4TH & 6
OWN 18
0
15.4%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 51 yds, downed at the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9DOWNS
4 plays · 39 yds · 0:4716% → 17%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+5
15.8%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete to MATHISON, M., PENALTY TROY offside 5 yards to the AKRON36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 5
OWN 36
+39
16.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 39 yds to the Troy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
17.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Troy 21Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
17.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 21 yds for a TD, (Cory Smigel KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 10TD
14 plays · 64 yds · 4:2284% → 84%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.7%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 29Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
15.6%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+3
15.6%
DK Billingsley run for 3 yds to the Troy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
15.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 15 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete, broken up by Dylan MeeksSimilar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+11
15.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 11 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+16
15.1%
DK Billingsley run for 16 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
15.0%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 8 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+1
15.0%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd to the Akron 13Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-1
15.1%
DK Billingsley run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 14 DK Billingsley fumbled, forced by Eric Bentley, recovered by Troy Kaleb BarkerSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+5
15.5%
Kaleb Barker run for 5 yds to the Akron 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
15.0%
Barker, Kaleb pass incomplete to Letton, Sam (FEATHERSTONE, S), PENALTY AKRON pass interference 7 yards to the AKRON2, 1ST DOWN TROY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 2 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK) AKRON Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
11 plays · 13 yds · 1:2613% → 13%
Q2 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-9
13.0%
LEE, Brandon rush for 1 yard to the AKRON26 (Dunmore, Jaquez;Hines, John), PENALTY AKRON holding 9 yards to the AKRON16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 10:57
1ST & 19
OWN 0
+7
12.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 7 yds to the Akron 23 TROY Penalty, personal foul off-setting ( Yards) to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 10:57
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+8
12.9%
Kato Nelson run for 8 yds to the Akron 31Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
12.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Akron 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
12.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 22 yds to the Troy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:31
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
13.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Brandon LeeSimilar
Q2 9:31
2ND & 10
OPP 43
+6
13.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q2 9:31
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+1
13.2%
Brandon Lee run for 1 yd to the Troy 36Similar
Q2 9:31
4TH & 3
OPP 36
0
13.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Brandon LeeSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 12END OF HALF
9 plays · 12 yds · 3:5988% → 88%
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+9
12.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 9 yds to the Troy 45Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 1
OWN 45
+8
11.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 8 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
11.7%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 9 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-5
11.7%
Kaleb Barker run for a loss of 5 yards to the Akron 43Similar
Q2 7:39
3RD & 6
OPP 43
+9
11.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 9 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+18
11.7%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 18 yds to the Akron 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+1
11.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 1 yd to the Akron 15Similar
Q2 7:39
2ND & 9
OPP 15
+6
11.6%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Akron 9Similar
Q2 3:40
3RD & 3
OPP 9
+9
11.8%
Kaleb Barker run for 9 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD
10 plays · 72 yds · 1:0612% → 18%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
12.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 6 yds to the Akron 23Similar
Q2 3:31
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
12.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 0
0
11.8%
NELSON, Kato pass incomplete, PENALTY AKRON illegal motion off-setting, PENALTY TROY roughing passer off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 3:31
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+5
12.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 5 yds to the Akron 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
12.5%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q2 2:25
2ND & 8
OWN 30
0
12.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q2 2:25
3RD & 8
OWN 30
0
12.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q2 2:25
4TH & 8
OWN 30
0
17.5%
Jonah Wieland punt for 59 yds, downed at the Troy 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 14DOWNS
5 plays · 66 yds · 0:0083% → 83%
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+3
17.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 3 yds to the Troy 14Similar
Q2 1:23
2ND & 7
OWN 14
+6
17.6%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 20Similar
Q2 1:23
3RD & 1
OWN 20
+12
17.4%
DK Billingsley run for 12 yds to the Troy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-14
16.6%
Barker, Kaleb pass complete to Billingsley, DK for 1 yard to the TROY33 (GLOVER, D.), PENALTY TROY personal foul 14 yards to the TROY18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:23
1ST & 24
OWN 18
+5
17.5%
DK Billingsley run for 5 yds to the Troy 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 15TD
16 plays · 91 yds · 4:4882% → 82%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+5
17.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 5 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 33
+9
17.4%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for 9 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 42
0
16.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Kaylon Geiger for no gain to the Troy 42Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 10
OWN 42
0
17.2%
Kaleb Barker pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 10
OWN 42
+15
17.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Sam Letton for 15 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
16.6%
DK Billingsley run for 4 yds to the Akron 39Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 6
OPP 39
+7
16.5%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 7 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
16.5%
DK Billingsley run for 2 yds to the Akron 30Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 8
OPP 30
0
16.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Khalil McClainSimilar
Q3 14:51
3RD & 8
OPP 30
+15
16.9%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 15 yds to the Akron 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
16.4%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 3 yds to the Akron 12Similar
Q3 14:51
2ND & 7
OPP 12
+11
16.4%
Kaleb Barker run for 11 yds to the Akron 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.4%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 14:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
16.4%
DK Billingsley run for no gain to the Akron 1Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
17.6%
DK Billingsley run for 1 yd for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT
10 plays · 12 yds · 0:0021% → 22%
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
20.5%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 49 yds to the Troy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+2
24.6%
Brandon Lee run for 2 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & 8
OPP 24
+6
24.6%
Brandon Lee run for 6 yds to the Troy 18Similar
Q3 10:03
3RD & 2
OPP 18
+16
23.3%
Brandon Lee run for 16 yds to the Troy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-2
24.6%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Troy 4Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
24.6%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Troy 9Similar
Q3 10:03
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
24.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q3 10:03
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
0
23.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q3 10:03
4TH & GOAL
OPP 9
0
21.7%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 17PUNT
15 plays · 7 yds · 6:3780% → 82%
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
20.0%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 15Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+8
19.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 8 yds to the Troy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+12
19.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Tray Eafford for 12 yds to the Troy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
18.8%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Troy 41Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+2
17.9%
Kaleb Barker run for 2 yds to the Troy 43Similar
Q3 7:13
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+6
18.2%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
17.6%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Khalil McClain for 3 yds to the Akron 48Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+17
17.5%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 17 yds to the Akron 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
17.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Luke Whittemore for 6 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+4
17.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+7
17.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q3 7:13
2ND & 3
OPP 14
+4
17.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Akron 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
17.1%
Kaleb Barker pass incomplete to Luke WhittemoreSimilar
Q3 7:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
-1
17.1%
Trevon Woolfolk run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 11Similar
Q3 0:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 11
+11
18.1%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Bret Clark for 11 yds for a TD, (Tyler Sumpter KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 5 yds · 0:2821% → 20%
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
21.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 12 yds to the Akron 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
22.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Nate StewartSimilar
Q3 0:28
2ND & 10
OWN 37
0
21.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Brandon LeeSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 37
0
20.5%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Jeremiah KnightSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 37
0
19.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 19DOWNS
4 plays · 42 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
19.5%
DK Billingsley run for 6 yds to the Troy 31Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+2
18.8%
Tanner Blatt run for 2 yds to the Troy 33Similar
Q4 14:47
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-1
19.2%
Kaleb Barker pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for a loss of 1 yard to the Troy 32Similar
Q4 14:47
4TH & 3
OWN 32
0
20.5%
Tyler Sumpter punt for 44 yds, downed at the Akron 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0022% → 20%
Q4 12:38
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
21.5%
Deltron Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 12:38
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+4
21.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Akron 27Similar
Q4 12:38
3RD & 7
OWN 27
+2
20.4%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q4 12:38
4TH & 5
OWN 29
0
19.7%
Jonah Wieland punt for 51 yds, fair catch by Luke Whittemore at the Troy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 21INT
4 plays · -5 yds · 0:0020% → 17%
Q4 5:17
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
20.3%
Michiah Burton run for no gain to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 5:17
2ND & 10
OWN 38
0
19.9%
T.J. DeShields pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 10
OWN 38
-5
18.6%
AKRON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Akron 33Similar
Q4 5:17
3RD & 15
OWN 33
0
17.2%
T.J. DeShields pass intercepted Orlando Lacey return for no gain to the Akron 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 22Uncategorized
10 plays · 23 yds · 5:0283% → 87%
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
17.3%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 4 yds to the Troy 24Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
16.7%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 7 yds to the Troy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
16.5%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 6 yds to the Troy 37Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+5
15.8%
Trevon Woolfolk run for 5 yds to the Troy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+15
15.2%
Tanner Blatt run for 15 yds to the Akron 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
14.6%
Tanner Blatt run for 5 yds to the Akron 38Similar
Q4 10:25
2ND & 5
OPP 38
-1
14.4%
Tanner Blatt run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 39Similar
Q4 10:25
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+3
15.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Reid Rials for 3 yds to the Akron 36Similar
Q4 5:23
4TH & 3
OPP 36
-2
13.0%
Gunnar Watson pass complete to Trevon Woolfolk for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TROYDrive 23Uncategorized
7 plays · 23 yds · 0:0089% → 88%
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
10.8%
Tanner Blatt run for 1 yd to the Akron 40Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+3
10.9%
Tanner Blatt run for 3 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+8
11.5%
Tanner Blatt run for 8 yds to the Akron 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:29
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
10.5%
Tanner Blatt run for 1 yd to the Akron 28Similar
Q4 4:29
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+7
10.6%
Tanner Blatt run for 7 yds to the Akron 21Similar
Q4 4:29
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
10.8%
Tanner Blatt run for 1 yd to the Akron 20Similar
Q4 4:29
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+2
12.5%
Tanner Blatt run for 2 yds to the Akron 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-12.5
TD · Q2 2:25
Jonah Wieland punt for 59 yds, downed at the Troy 11
+5.2
TD · Q1 3:37
Tyler Sumpter punt for 51 yds, downed at the Akron 31
-2.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com