Try the model
UL

Louisiana 45 at Ohio 25

OHIO
2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Peden Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · OHIO
modelOHIO aheadUL aheadconfidence bandkey playOHIO scoreUL score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 4:51 · Michael Farkas punt for 48 yds , Eric Garror returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the LaLaf 6
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsPregame prior
+52.5+26.30−26.3−52.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 29Home team on offense+0.2Score differential−0.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Pregame prior+1.8
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:19: Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +12.7 pts (now 72%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 4:13: Nick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick) — UL win probability +12.9 pts (now 91%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:45: Trey Ragas run for 15 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK) — UL win probability +11.1 pts (now 96%) (top driver: UL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 11:04: Ja'Vahri Portis run for 3 yds for a TD, (DL Knock intercepted ) — OHIO win probability +14.8 pts (now 22%) (top driver: OHIO has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 7:54: Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 21 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK) — OHIO win probability +28.1 pts (now 40%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
OHIO made the numbers' call on 4 of 9UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 9
  1. Q1 13:46OHIO 4th & 1 at OHIO 34, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.5%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:16UL 4th & 1 at UL 29, tied
    Close callPunted · 40.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    40.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.3%−0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:06OHIO 4th & 2 at OHIO 49, tied
    Close callPunted · 59.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.8%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.7%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:08UL 4th & 5 at OHIO 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 41.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    41.1%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    40.8%−0.2
    34% to make
    Punt
    40.9%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 4:51OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 43, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    59.2%−0.2
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    59.4%
    average punt
  6. Q1 2:39UL 4th & 10 at UL 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.5%−0.7
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    40.2%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:14OHIO 4th & 7 at OHIO 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    53.0%−0.5
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 14:10UL 4th & 13 at UL 31, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    45.8%−1.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 10:12OHIO 4th & 7 at UL 31, down 7
    Close callKicked a field goal · 51.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.4%−0.1
    54% to make
    Punt
    50.4%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 6:39UL 4th & 28 at UL 34, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 45.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.7%−3.0
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    45.7%
    average punt
  11. Q2 1:58OHIO 4th & 6 at UL 33, down 4
    Close callKicked a field goal · 53.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    52.5%−0.3
    49% to make
    Punt
    51.1%−1.7
    average punt
  12. Q2 0:00UL 4th & 2 at OHIO 10, up 1
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.3 ptsKicked a field goal · 48.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.5%
    55% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    48.2%−1.3
    88% to make
    Punt
    40.2%−9.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 13:04UL 4th & 23 at UL 20, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.9%−4.1
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.9%
    average punt
  14. Q3 12:05OHIO 4th & 3 at OHIO 38, down 4
    Close callPunted · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.4%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 0:18OHIO 4th & 1 at UL 1, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    11.5%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%−3.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    -0.5%−12.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:08OHIO 4th & 9 at OHIO 20, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 6.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    5.0%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:26UL 4th & 4 at OHIO 20, up 13
    Close callKicked a field goal · 91.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.1%−0.5
    75% to make
    Punt
    84.7%−6.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 1:38UL 4th & 3 at UL 27, up 20
    Close callPunted · 99.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.2%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.1%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
OHIO made the numbers' call on 1 of 2UL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6
  1. Q1 2:19UL Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:19UL Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 4:13UL Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    84.1%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 0:18OHIO Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    20.0%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    19.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 13:45UL Touchdown, up 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:54OHIO Touchdown, down 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.3%−0.5
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:30UL Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.2%−1.0
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.2%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 3:36UL Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.1%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
OHIODrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:1452% → 52%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
52.2%
Nathan Rourke run for 6 yds to the Ohio 31Similar
Q1 14:24
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
52.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+3
52.3%
Nathan Rourke run for 3 yds to the Ohio 34Similar
Q1 13:46
4TH & 1
OWN 34
0
52.3%
Michael Farkas punt for 46 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:2448% → 47%
Q1 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+8
52.4%
Trey Ragas run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 28Similar
Q1 13:22
2ND & 2
OWN 28
-2
52.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 4
OWN 26
+3
52.6%
Trey Ragas run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 29Similar
Q1 12:16
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+4
52.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Ohio 28 , Jerome Buckner returns for 4 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 21 yds · 2:0053% → 53%
Q1 12:06
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+2
52.7%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 2 yds to the Ohio 30Similar
Q1 11:39
2ND & 8
OWN 30
+11
52.8%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 11 yds to the Ohio 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:03
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
53.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+8
53.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 8 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q1 10:14
3RD & 2
OWN 49
0
53.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Jerome Buckner, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q1 10:06
4TH & 2
OWN 49
0
53.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 41 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 10 Eric Garror fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Eric GarrorSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 4DOWNS
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:4847% → 47%
Q1 9:56
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+16
52.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 16 yds to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
52.9%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:18
2ND & 10
OWN 26
+12
52.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:52
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+9
52.5%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 9 yds to the LaLaf 47Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 1
OWN 47
+8
52.3%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
52.2%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for no gain to the Ohio 45Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+4
52.1%
Raymond Calais run for 4 yds to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 6:46
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+1
52.3%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the Ohio 40Similar
Q1 6:08
4TH & 5
OPP 40
0
52.7%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 1:0854% → 53%
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
53.8%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Jerome BucknerSimilar
Q1 5:53
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+1
53.6%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 1 yd to the Ohio 41Similar
Q1 5:16
3RD & 9
OWN 41
+7
53.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 7 yds to the Ohio 48Similar
Q1 4:56
4TH & 2
OWN 48
-5
53.6%
Clock 04:56, PENALTY OHIO false start (MCCRORY, J.) 5 yards to the OHIO43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:51
4TH & 7
OWN 43
+3
53.1%
Michael Farkas punt for 48 yds , Eric Garror returns for 3 yds to the LaLaf 46 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal block (6 Yards) to the LaLaf 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:5347% → 46%
Q1 4:32
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+7
53.4%
Trey Ragas run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 13Similar
Q1 4:02
2ND & 3
OWN 13
+8
53.3%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 8 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:53
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+1
53.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 22Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 9
OWN 22
0
53.3%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q1 3:16
3RD & 9
OWN 22
+4
53.8%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jalen Williams for 4 yds to the LaLaf 26Similar
Q1 2:42
4TH & 5
OWN 26
-5
54.1%
Clock 02:42, PENALTY LA substitution infraction 5 yards to the LA21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:39
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
54.4%
Rhys Byrns punt for 70 yds , Jerome Buckner returns for no gain to the Ohio 2 Jerome Buckner fumbled, recovered by LaLaf T.J. WishamSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 7TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 2:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
46.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 3 yds · 1:0548% → 47%
Q1 2:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
48.4%
Clock 02:19, PENALTY OHIO delay of game (ROURKE, N.) 5 yards to the OHIO20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 2:19
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+4
48.3%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 4 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q1 1:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+4
48.2%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Jerome Buckner for 4 yds to the Ohio 28Similar
Q1 1:18
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
47.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Jerome BucknerSimilar
Q1 1:14
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
47.2%
Michael Farkas punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Eric Garror at the LaLaf 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 1:5653% → 52%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
47.3%
Raymond Calais run for no gain to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q1 0:35
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+2
47.3%
Levi Lewis run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 32 Levi Lewis fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Levi Lewis , return for 2 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 12
OWN 32
-15
47.8%
Clock 15:00, Lewis, Levi pass complete to Jackson, Jarrod for 68 yards to the OHIO0, clock 14:46, PENALTY LA pass interference (Jackson, Jarrod) 15 yards to the LA17, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 14:46
3RD & 27
OWN 17
+14
47.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 14 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 14:10
4TH & 13
OWN 31
+36
48.0%
Rhys Byrns punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jerome Buckner at the OHIO 28 LOUISIANA Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Ohio 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 10FG
10 plays · 36 yds · 3:5248% → 52%
Q2 14:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+7
47.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 7 yds to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 13:45
2ND & 3
OWN 40
0
48.7%
De'Montre Tuggle run for no gain to the Ohio 40Similar
Q2 13:06
3RD & 3
OWN 40
+5
48.0%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 5 yds to the Ohio 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:31
1ST & 10
OWN 45
0
48.2%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q2 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 45
0
47.6%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q2 12:17
3RD & 10
OWN 45
+21
47.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 21 yds to the LaLaf 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+4
49.6%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 30Similar
Q2 11:05
2ND & 6
OPP 30
-1
49.6%
De'Montre Tuggle run for a loss of 1 yard to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 10:23
3RD & 7
OPP 31
0
48.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Jerome BucknerSimilar
Q2 10:12
4TH & 7
OPP 31
+48
51.5%
Louie Zervos 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 11PUNT
12 plays · 9 yds · 3:3350% → 50%
Q2 10:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
50.2%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Ja'Marcus Bradley, broken up by Marlin BrooksSimilar
Q2 10:05
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
50.2%
Trey Ragas run for 9 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 9:41
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+5
49.4%
Trey Ragas run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+4
48.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 4 yds to the LaLaf 43Similar
Q2 8:52
2ND & 6
OWN 43
+5
48.3%
Levi Lewis run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 48Similar
Q2 8:28
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+4
48.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 4 yds to the Ohio 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 48
-10
46.9%
Clock 08:14, Lewis, Levi pass complete to Bell, Jamal for 5 yards to the OHIO43 (CONRAD, A.), PENALTY LA holding (Smith Jr., Bria) 10 yards to the LA42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 20
OWN 42
0
48.0%
Elijah Mitchell run for no gain to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q2 7:27
2ND & 20
OWN 42
-8
48.1%
Levi Lewis sacked by Austin Conrad for a loss of 8 yards to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 28
OWN 34
0
49.6%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete LOUISIANA Penalty, ineligible downfield on pass ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 6:39
4TH & 28
OWN 34
0
50.1%
Rhys Byrns punt for 47 yds, downed at the Ohio 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 12FG
13 plays · 48 yds · 4:2849% → 53%
Q2 6:26
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
48.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron Odom, broken up by Eric GarrorSimilar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 10
OWN 19
-10
48.6%
Clock 06:22, ROURKE, N. rush for 6 yards to the OHIO25 (Gardner, Ferrod), PENALTY OHIO holding (KITRELL, B.) 10 yards to the OHIO9, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:11
2ND & 20
OWN 9
+5
48.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to De'Montre Tuggle for 5 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 5:31
3RD & 15
OWN 14
+16
48.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 16 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:05
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+21
49.9%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 36 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jacques Boudreaux) to the LaLaf 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+5
52.5%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 44Similar
Q2 4:00
2ND & 5
OPP 44
+7
52.8%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
52.7%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:28
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+3
52.5%
De'Montre Tuggle run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q2 2:51
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+1
52.1%
Nathan Rourke run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 33Similar
Q2 1:58
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+49
53.1%
Louie Zervos 49 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 13FG
14 plays · 67 yds · 1:5351% → 56%
Q2 1:53
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
49.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 8 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q2 1:31
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+6
48.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 6 yds to the LaLaf 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
48.4%
Elijah Mitchell run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+4
46.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Calif Gossett for 4 yds to the Ohio 49Similar
Q2 1:10
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+16
46.3%
Jalen Williams pass complete to Brian Smith Jr. for 16 yds to the Ohio 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
44.8%
Trey Ragas run for 15 yds to the Ohio 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:51
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+4
44.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Peter Leblanc for 4 yds to the Ohio 14Similar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 6
OPP 14
+2
45.0%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
Q2 0:24
3RD & 4
OPP 12
+2
46.1%
Trey Ragas run for 2 yds to the Ohio 10Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 2
OPP 10
+27
43.6%
Stevie Artigue 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -13 yds · 1:4755% → 52%
Q3 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
45.2%
Trey Ragas run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 34Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 9
OWN 34
-5
45.1%
Clock 14:18, Lewis, Levi pass complete to Bell, Jamal for 13 yards to the LA47, out-of-bounds (CONNER, D.), PENALTY LA ineligible downfield on pass (Migl, Pearse) 5 yards to the LA29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:56
2ND & 14
OWN 29
0
46.2%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 13:46
3RD & 14
OWN 29
-9
47.3%
Levi Lewis sacked by Cole Baker for a loss of 9 yards to the LaLaf 20Similar
Q3 13:04
4TH & 23
OWN 20
0
48.3%
Rhys Byrns punt for 49 yds , DL Knock returns for no gain to the Ohio 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 15PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:5047% → 46%
Q3 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
47.3%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+7
47.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Cameron Odom for 7 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q3 12:11
3RD & 3
OWN 38
0
48.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Cameron OdomSimilar
Q3 12:05
4TH & 3
OWN 38
+1
45.9%
Michael Farkas punt for 37 yds , Eric Garror returns for 1 yd to the LaLaf 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 16TD
5 plays · 74 yds · 1:3755% → 72%
Q3 11:56
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+35
45.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 35 yds to the Ohio 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+19
42.5%
Elijah Mitchell run for 19 yds to the Ohio 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+12
40.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 12 yds to the Ohio 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
40.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 6 yds to the Ohio 2Similar
Q3 10:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
28.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 17INT
8 plays · 48 yds · 3:4330% → 32%
Q3 10:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+24
29.7%
Nathan Rourke run for 24 yds to the Ohio 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
31.5%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 11 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+3
31.7%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 3 yds to the LaLaf 37Similar
Q3 8:21
2ND & 7
OPP 37
+5
31.4%
Nathan Rourke run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 32Similar
Q3 7:41
3RD & 2
OPP 32
+4
31.0%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
32.4%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q3 6:36
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+60
32.1%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Kamar Greenhouse return for 45 yds to the LaLaf 0 LOUISIANA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 18TD
7 plays · 50 yds · 2:1175% → 91%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
50
0
24.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Jalen WilliamsSimilar
Q3 6:12
2ND & 10
50
+20
24.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 20 yds to the Ohio 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:46
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-5
23.8%
Clock 05:46, Calais, Raymond rush for 6 yards to the OHIO24 (ARP, B.;HAMPTON, J.), PENALTY LA illegal shift (Migl, Pearse) 5 yards to the OHIO35, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:17
1ST & 15
OPP 35
+6
23.6%
Raymond Calais run for 6 yds to the Ohio 29Similar
Q3 4:48
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+26
23.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 26 yds to the Ohio 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
22.3%
Raymond Calais run for 1 yd to the Ohio 2Similar
Q3 4:13
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
9.4%
Nick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 19TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:5514% → 23%
Q3 4:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+26
14.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 26 yds to the OHIO 49 for a 1ST down LOUISIANA Penalty, Defensive pass interference ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:56
1ST & 10
OPP 49
0
15.5%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ja'Vahri PortisSimilar
Q3 3:50
2ND & 10
OPP 49
+7
15.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 7 yds to the LaLaf 42Similar
Q3 3:10
3RD & 3
OPP 42
+4
15.3%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 4 yds to the LaLaf 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:35
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+29
13.9%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Isiah Cox for 29 yds to the LaLaf 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
0
14.1%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ryan LuehrmanSimilar
Q3 1:44
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+7
14.1%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 7 yds to the LaLaf 2Similar
Q3 1:06
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
13.0%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 1 yd to the LaLaf 1Similar
Q3 0:18
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
22.9%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 1 yd for a TD, (Two-Point Conversion failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 20TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:3383% → 96%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+22
17.0%
Trey Ragas run for 22 yds to the Ohio 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
15.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jarrod Jackson for 5 yds to the Ohio 38Similar
Q4 14:33
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+15
15.4%
Clock 14:33, Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Jackson, Jarrod, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (HAMPTON, J.) 15 yards to the OHIO23, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
15.0%
Levi Lewis pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 10
OPP 23
+8
15.4%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Trey Ragas for 8 yds to the Ohio 15Similar
Q4 13:45
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+15
4.3%
Trey Ragas run for 15 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 21PUNT
6 plays · 1 yds · 1:317% → 6%
Q4 13:39
1ST & 10
OWN 19
0
7.4%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Ryan Luehrman, broken up by Michael Jacquet IIISimilar
Q4 13:33
2ND & 10
OWN 19
+5
6.7%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 5 yds to the Ohio 24Similar
Q4 13:00
3RD & 5
OWN 24
-4
6.5%
Nathan Rourke run for a loss of 4 yards to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 12:23
4TH & 9
OWN 0
0
5.9%
Clock 12:23, FARKAS, M. punt 58 yards to the LA22, Garror, Eric return to the LA42, out-of-bounds (KING, D.), PENALTY OHIO face mask off-setting, PENALTY LA personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 12:08
4TH & 9
OWN 20
0
5.6%
Michael Farkas punt for 41 yds , Eric Garror returns for no gain to the LaLaf 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 22FUMBLE
1 play · -11 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
Q4 11:58
1ST & 10
OWN 39
-4
3.9%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the LaLaf 28 TEAM fumbled, recovered by Ohio Jarren HamptonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 23TD
3 plays · 28 yds · 0:467% → 22%
Q4 11:50
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+10
7.1%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Alec Burton for 10 yds to the LaLaf 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+15
6.9%
Clock 11:15, ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to TUPA, T., PENALTY LA pass interference (Garror, Eric) 15 yards to the LA3, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:04
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
21.8%
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 3 yds for a TD, (DL Knock intercepted )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 24MISSED FG
7 plays · 55 yds · 2:3890% → 92%
Q4 11:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
10.1%
Elijah Mitchell run for 14 yds to the LaLaf 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+35
8.6%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Jamal Bell for 35 yds to the Ohio 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:51
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
7.8%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Hunter BergeronSimilar
Q4 9:44
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+3
7.9%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Ohio 23Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
7.9%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds to the Ohio 20Similar
Q4 8:26
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+37
8.5%
Stevie Artigue 37 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 25TD
3 plays · 80 yds · 0:3212% → 40%
Q4 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+10
11.7%
Clock 08:26, ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to TUPA, T., PENALTY LA holding (Jacquet III, Mi) 10 yards to the OHIO30, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:20
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+49
12.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 49 yds to the LaLaf 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+21
40.4%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 21 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 26TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 3:2475% → 95%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
24.7%
Trey Ragas run for 6 yds to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 7:12
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
20.3%
Trey Ragas run for no gain to the LaLaf 31Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+33
20.9%
Trey Ragas run for 33 yds to the Ohio 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:58
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+22
16.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 22 yds to the Ohio 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:19
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+3
15.8%
Elijah Mitchell run for 3 yds to the Ohio 11Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 7
OPP 11
+9
15.5%
Clock 04:38, Lewis, Levi pass incomplete to Williams, Jalen, PENALTY OHIO pass interference (BROOKS, M.) 9 yards to the OHIO2, 1ST DOWN LA, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:30
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
5.2%
Elijah Mitchell run for 2 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 27FUMBLE
2 plays · -13 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q4 4:23
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
7.8%
Nathan Rourke sacked by Joe Dillon for a loss of 10 yards to the Ohio 12 Nathan Rourke fumbled, recovered by LaLaf Ja'Quane Nelson , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the Ohio 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 28TD
2 plays · 12 yds · 0:3895% → 99%
Q4 4:14
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+9
4.9%
Levi Lewis run for 9 yds to the Ohio 3Similar
Q4 3:36
2ND & 1
OPP 3
+3
1.0%
Levi Lewis pass complete to Ja'Marcus Bradley for 3 yds for a TD, (Stevie Artigue KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 29INT
6 plays · 66 yds · 0:211% → 3%
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+27
1.3%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Ryan Luehrman for 27 yds to the LaLaf 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:29
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+15
1.4%
LOUISIANA Penalty, personal foul (Bralen Trahan) to the LaLaf 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+10
1.6%
Clock 03:17, ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to HOOKS, S., PENALTY LA holding (Washington, Asj) 10 yards to the LA16, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:13
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+14
1.6%
Clock 03:13, ROURKE, N. pass incomplete to COX, I., PENALTY LA pass interference (Miller, Terik) 14 yards to the LA2, 1ST DOWN OHIO, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 3:08
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
2.5%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted, touchback. Asjlin Washington return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 30PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 1:2499% → 99%
Q4 3:02
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
1.0%
Raymond Calais run for 5 yds to the LaLaf 25Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+2
0.9%
Chris Smith run for 2 yds to the LaLaf 27Similar
Q4 1:41
3RD & 3
OWN 27
0
0.7%
Levi Lewis pass incomplete to Chris Smith, broken up by Austin ConradSimilar
Q4 1:38
4TH & 3
OWN 27
0
0.7%
Rhys Byrns punt for 40 yds, fair catch by DL Knock at the Ohio 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
OHIODrive 31INT
5 plays · 27 yds · 0:391% → 1%
Q4 1:31
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+17
1.0%
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Tyler Tupa for 17 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:17
1ST & 10
50
+10
1.0%
Nathan Rourke run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:06
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
1.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incomplete to Shane Hooks, broken up by Jayrin WilsonSimilar
Q4 0:58
2ND & 10
OPP 40
0
1.0%
Nathan Rourke pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 10
OPP 40
-2
1.0%
Nathan Rourke pass intercepted Kam Pedescleaux return for a loss of 2 yards to the LaLaf 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ULDrive 32END OF GAME
1 play · 10 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+10
0.7%
T.J. Wisham run for 10 yds to the LaLaf 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 7:54
Nathan Rourke pass complete to Shane Hooks for 21 yds for a TD, (Louie Zervos KICK)
+28.1
TD · Q4 11:04
Ja'Vahri Portis run for 3 yds for a TD, (DL Knock intercepted )
+14.8
TD · Q3 4:13
Nick Ralston 2 Yd pass from Levi Lewis (Stevie Artigue Kick)
-12.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com