2019 · Week 4 · Sep 21, 2019 · Dix Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Win probability · KENT
modelKENT aheadBGSU aheadconfidence bandkey playKENT scoreBGSU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:11 · Bryson Denley run for 8 yds to the BwGrn 43
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 4:03: Andrew Clair run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.5 pts (now 20%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 3:31: Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 53 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +3.4 pts (now 85%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q2 12:22: Matthew Trickett 25 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +3.1 pts (now 88%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- TD · Q3 8:29: Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK) — KENT win probability +5.0 pts (now 97%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
- FG · Q3 4:54: Matthew Trickett 42 yd FG GOOD — KENT win probability +2.5 pts (now 100%) (top driver: KENT has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
KENT made the numbers' call on 5 of 6BGSU made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 12:55BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 39, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snapGo for it20.6%−<0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call20.6%average punt
- Q2 12:22KENT 4th & 6 at BGSU 8, up 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.2% before the snapGo for it83.8%−0.132% to convertField goalTheir call83.9%90% to makePunt79.8%−4.2average punt
- Q2 12:13BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 37, down 17Numbers favored go for it by 1.4 ptsPunted · 14.1% before the snapGo for it14.8%71% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call13.4%−1.4average punt
- Q2 11:06KENT 4th & 1 at BGSU 49, up 17Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call87.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt86.1%−1.4average punt
- Q2 8:30BGSU 4th & 20 at KENT 45, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snapGo for it11.1%−1.910% to convertField goal11.8%−1.225% to makePuntTheir call13.1%average punt
- Q2 2:56KENT 4th & 6 at BGSU 43, up 17Close callPunted · 89.5% before the snapGo for it89.5%40% to convertField goal88.6%−0.928% to makePuntTheir call88.8%−0.7average punt
- Q2 2:16BGSU 4th & 11 at BGSU 8, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.7% before the snapGo for it8.4%−1.824% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call10.2%average punt
- Q2 0:08KENT 4th & 8 at BGSU 10, up 17Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 89.1% before the snapGo for it88.0%−1.028% to convertField goalTheir call89.0%88% to makePunt85.3%−3.6average punt
- Q3 15:00BGSU 4th & 14 at KENT 37, down 17Agrees with the numbersPunted · 10.6% before the snapGo for it10.4%−0.919% to convertField goal11.0%−0.240% to makePuntTheir call11.2%average punt
- Q3 8:29BGSU 4th & 1 at BGSU 45, down 24Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 3.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call3.8%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt3.1%−0.7average punt
- Q3 4:54KENT 4th & 8 at BGSU 25, up 24Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.2% before the snapGo for it97.2%−0.133% to convertField goalTheir call97.3%66% to makePunt95.4%−1.9average punt
- Q3 4:54BGSU 4th & 2 at BGSU 33, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.6%−<0.157% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.6%average punt
- Q3 1:56KENT 4th & 9 at KENT 49, up 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.7% before the snapGo for it99.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call99.8%average punt
- Q4 10:01BGSU 4th & 4 at BGSU 31, down 35Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−<0.148% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
KENT made the numbers' call on 7 of 8BGSU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
- Q1 12:55KENT Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call79.3%97% to makeGo for two79.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 6:05KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call81.4%97% to makeGo for two81.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:03BGSU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call20.8%97% to makeGo for two20.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 3:31KENT Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call82.7%97% to makeGo for two82.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 8:29KENT Touchdown, up 23 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.0%97% to makeGo for two97.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:02KENT Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:41BGSU Touchdown, down 28 before the tryClose callKicked · missedKickTheir call0.3%−<0.197% to makeGo for two0.3%45% to convert
- Q4 10:06KENT Touchdown, up 34 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 5:03KENT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 1:54BGSU Touchdown, down 36 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call0.1%97% to makeGo for two0.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 0:12KENT Touchdown, up 41 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%−<0.197% to makeGo for two100.0%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartKENTDrive 1TD9 plays · 65 yds · 2:0582% → 82%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+27
82.2%
Kavious Price run for 12 yds to the KENTST 47 for a 1ST down BOWLING GREEN Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Caleb Biggers) to the BwGrn 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+10
82.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 10 yds to the BwGrn 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
82.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 5 yds to the BwGrn 10Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+10
82.2%
Kavious Price pass complete to Keenan Orr for 10 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 14 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
KENTDrive 3TD11 plays · 61 yds · 3:5882% → 85%
Q1 10:03
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+3
82.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 3 yds to the BwGrn 21Similar
Q1 10:03
3RD & 12
OPP 26
+5
82.2%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to PRICE, Kavious, PENALTY BGSU offside defense (LAUTANEN, Nico) 5 yards to the BGSU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:03
4TH & 1
OPP 15
+5
82.1%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, offside defense (Karl Brooks) to the BwGrn 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 4TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:0216% → 20%
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+18
83.7%
Darius Wade pass complete to Andrew Clair for 18 yds to the BwGrn 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
83.5%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 3 yds to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q1 6:05
2ND & 7
OWN 46
+45
83.4%
Darius Wade pass complete to RB Marlow III for 45 yds to the KntSt 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:05
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+6
83.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to RB Marlow III for 6 yds to the KntSt 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 5TD3 plays · 68 yds · 0:3082% → 85%
Q1 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+15
81.8%
CRUM, Dustin sacked for loss of 12 yards to the KENTST20 (HAIGLER, D.), PENALTY BGSU face mask (HAIGLER, D.) 15 yards to the KENTST47, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+53
85.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 53 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 6INT11 plays · 45 yds · 3:3116% → 16%
Q1 3:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+9
84.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Austin Dorris for 9 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:31
2ND & 6
OPP 43
+9
83.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Davon Jones for 9 yds to the KntSt 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+23
83.8%
Darius Wade pass intercepted Jamal Parker return for 23 yds to the KntSt 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 7FG7 plays · 45 yds · 2:0586% → 88%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 9 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 12:13
3RD & 10
OWN 28
+9
87.6%
Darius Wade pass complete to Austin Dorris for 9 yds to the BwGrn 37Similar
Q2 12:13
4TH & 1
OWN 37
+10
87.4%
Matt Naranjo punt for 48 yds , Raymond James returns for 10 yds to the KntSt 47 KENT ST Penalty, Offensive holding (Elvis Hines) to the KntSt 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 9DOWNS8 plays · 33 yds · 0:0089% → 89%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+15
88.8%
BOWLING GREEN Penalty, personal foul (Jerry McBride III) to the KntSt 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 10PUNT6 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 11%
KENTDrive 11PUNT12 plays · 37 yds · 2:5490% → 91%
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+5
89.9%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 5 yds to the KntSt 35Similar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 5
OWN 35
+7
90.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 7 yds to the KntSt 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+7
90.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 7 yds to the BwGrn 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:50
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
90.2%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Kavious Price, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
Q2 5:50
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-4
90.2%
Dustin Crum sacked by Nico Lautanen for a loss of 4 yards to the KntSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 12PUNT5 plays · -1 yds · 0:3410% → 10%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+7
90.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 7 yds to the BwGrn 16Similar
Q2 2:50
2ND & 3
OWN 16
-8
89.6%
Darius Wade sacked by Kesean Gamble and Zayin West for a loss of 8 yards to the BwGrn 8Similar
Q2 2:16
4TH & 11
OWN 8
0
90.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 13MISSED FG11 plays · 48 yds · 1:5591% → 91%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 9 yds to the BwGrn 49Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 1
OPP 49
+7
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 7 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+11
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 11 yds to the BwGrn 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
91.4%
CRUM, Dustin pass incomplete to MCKOY, Isaiah, PENALTY BGSU pass interference (BIGGERS, Caleb) 6 yards to the BGSU25, 1ST DOWN KENTST, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+13
91.4%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Antwan Dixon for 13 yds to the BwGrn 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 14END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 15PUNT10 plays · 38 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+17
90.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 17 yds to the BwGrn 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 46
+7
89.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to RB Marlow III for 7 yds to the KntSt 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+14
88.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 14 yds to the KntSt 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 27
-10
88.6%
Darius Wade sacked by Theo Majette for a loss of 10 yards to the KntSt 37Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 14
OPP 37
0
90.2%
Matt Naranjo punt for 31 yds, fair catch by Raymond James at the KntSt 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 16TD8 plays · 94 yds · 2:5891% → 97%
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OWN 6
-5
91.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for a loss of 5 yards to the KntSt 1Similar
Q3 11:27
2ND & 15
OWN 1
+13
91.3%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 13 yds to the KntSt 14Similar
Q3 11:27
3RD & 2
OWN 14
+6
91.1%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 6 yds to the KntSt 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-4
92.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Isaiah McKoy for 11 yds to the BwGrn 31 KENT ST Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Isaiah McKoy) to the BwGrn 46Similar
Q3 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+7
92.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Jo-El Shaw for 7 yds to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 8:29
3RD & 3
OPP 39
+39
97.0%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17DOWNS7 plays · 20 yds · 0:003% → 3%
KENTDrive 18FG7 plays · 20 yds · 1:5697% → 100%
Q3 6:50
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-12
97.2%
Xavier Williams run for 3 yds to the BwGrn 24 KENT ST Penalty, illegal block (Nathan Monnin) to the BwGrn 39Similar
Q3 6:50
2ND & 25
OPP 42
+17
97.2%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 17 yds to the BwGrn 25Similar
Q3 6:50
3RD & 8
OPP 25
0
97.2%
Dustin Crum pass incomplete to Kavious Price, broken up by Jamari BozemanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
KENTDrive 20PUNT6 plays · 14 yds · 1:10100% → 100%
Q3 3:06
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+13
99.7%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 13 yds to the KntSt 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 2
OPP 44
-15
99.7%
CRUM, Dustin pass complete to CARRIGAN, Mike for 44 yards to the BGSU0, clock 01:56, PENALTY KENTST personal foul 15 yards to the KENTST41, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:56
3RD & 17
OWN 41
+8
99.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Xavier Williams for 8 yds to the KntSt 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21INT1 play · 0 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
99.8%
Darius Wade pass intercepted Jamal Parker return for no gain to the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 22TD3 plays · 40 yds · 0:53100% → 100%
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
99.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 11 yds to the BwGrn 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+26
99.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 26 yds to the BwGrn 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.8%
Dustin Crum pass complete to Adam Dulka for 3 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 23TD12 plays · 75 yds · 3:210% → 0%
Q4 15:00
3RD & 9
OPP 45
+15
99.8%
LOY, Grant pass incomplete to ROGERS, Jake, PENALTY KENTST pass interference (PARKER, Jamal) 15 yards to the KENTST30, 1ST DOWN BGSU, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 24TD5 plays · 65 yds · 1:27100% → 100%
BGSUDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 6 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 26TD10 plays · 91 yds · 4:03100% → 100%
Q4 9:06
3RD & 13
OWN 6
+22
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 22 yds to the KntSt 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:06
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+4
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Joachim Bangda for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:06
3RD & 4
50
+15
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to John Henry Bronczek for 15 yds to the BwGrn 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
99.9%
Woody Barrett pass complete to Keshunn Abram for 14 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 27TD10 plays · 77 yds · 3:040% → 0%
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OWN 49
+20
99.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Quintin Morris for 20 yds to the KntSt 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:58
2ND & 6
OPP 27
+20
99.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Rodell Rahmaan for 20 yds to the KntSt 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:54
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
99.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to Bryson Denley for 3 yds for a TD, (Mason Lawler KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
KENTDrive 28TD4 plays · 75 yds · 1:42100% → 100%
BGSUDrive 29END OF GAME2 plays · 8 yds · 0:000% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 8:29
Dustin Crum pass complete to Kavious Price for 39 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+5
TD · Q1 3:31
Dustin Crum pass complete to Mike Carrigan for 53 yds for a TD, (Matthew Trickett KICK)
+3.4
FG · Q2 12:22
Matthew Trickett 25 yd FG GOOD
+3.1