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MUR

Murray State 0 at Toledo 45

TOL
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Glass Bowl
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Win probability · TOL
modelTOL aheadMUR aheadconfidence bandkey playTOL scoreMUR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 11:47 · Bailey Flint punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Rodney Castille at the MurrS 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+49.0+24.50−24.5−49.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+47.7Home team on offense+0.0Score differential−0.1Blowout margin−0.1Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q1 3:21: Evan Davis 40 yd FG GOOD — MUR win probability +0.4 pts (now 3%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 10:34: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +1.3 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  3. KEY PLAY · Q2 1:48: Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 20 — TOL win probability +0.9 pts (now 98%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 11:22: Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 43 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +1.7 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 6:41: Bryant Koback run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK) — TOL win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: TOL has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TOL made the numbers' call on 5 of 6MUR made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00MUR 4th & 6 at TOL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 1.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    1.8%−<0.1
    60% to make
    Punt
    1.5%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:47TOL 4th & 10 at TOL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.7%−0.1
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.8%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:20MUR 4th & 13 at TOL 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 3.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.0%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    3.1%
    60% to make
    Punt
    2.7%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:20TOL 4th & 4 at MUR 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.0%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    96.9%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:21TOL 4th & 6 at MUR 23, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 96.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.4%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.4%
    70% to make
    Punt
    96.0%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:21MUR 4th & 6 at MUR 29, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  7. Q2 14:51MUR 4th & 14 at MUR 44, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.3%−0.1
    18% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 10:25MUR 4th & 5 at TOL 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    2.3%−0.3
    28% to make
    Punt
    2.5%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q2 4:02TOL 4th & 5 at MUR 15, up 17
    Close callWent for it · 97.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    97.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    97.2%
    83% to make
    Punt
    95.8%−1.4
    average punt
  10. Q3 14:54TOL 4th & 7 at TOL 49, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 96.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.8%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:22MUR 4th & 11 at MUR 24, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.3%−0.3
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.6%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:48MUR 4th & 8 at TOL 28, down 31
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    0.2%
    60% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.3
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:05MUR 4th & 1 at TOL 47, down 38
    Close callPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    -0.0%−0.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:25MUR 4th & 5 at MUR 30, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.1%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:13TOL 4th & 10 at MUR 46, up 45
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.9%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    99.8%−0.1
    23% to make
    PuntTheir call
    99.9%
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:58MUR 4th & 2 at TOL 49, down 45
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.0%−<0.1
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TOL made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q2 14:55TOL Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 10:34TOL Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    97.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 11:22TOL Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 6:41TOL Touchdown, up 30 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:39TOL Touchdown, up 37 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 11:25TOL Touchdown, up 44 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    100.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    100.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
MURDrive 1DOWNS
9 plays · 47 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
98.6%
Preston Rice run for 9 yds to the MurrS 34Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+13
98.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 13 yds to the MurrS 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+5
98.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 5 yds to the Toled 48Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 48
+16
98.6%
Preston Rice run for 16 yds to the Toled 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
-11
98.6%
Preston Rice sacked by Devan Rogers for a loss of 11 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 21
OPP 43
+7
98.6%
Preston Rice run for 7 yds to the Toled 36Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 36
+8
98.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for 8 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 28
0
98.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for no gain to the Toled 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q1 11:47
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
98.3%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the Toled 32Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 6
OWN 32
-5
98.3%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 27Similar
Q1 11:47
2ND & 11
OWN 27
-1
98.3%
Bryant Koback run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 26Similar
Q1 11:47
3RD & 12
OWN 26
+2
98.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 2 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 11:47
4TH & 10
OWN 28
0
98.3%
Bailey Flint punt for 53 yds, fair catch by Rodney Castille at the MurrS 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 3MISSED FG
12 plays · 53 yds · 3:442% → 2%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+13
98.1%
Preston Rice run for 13 yds to the MurrS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+18
98.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for 18 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
50
+6
98.1%
Jared McCray run for 6 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+5
98.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for 5 yds to the Toled 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
98.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Ty Terrell for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 8
OPP 37
0
98.1%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to Armani Hayes, broken up by Chris McDonaldSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 8
OPP 37
+12
98.1%
Preston Rice run for 12 yds to the Toled 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
-4
98.0%
Rodney Castille run for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 29Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 14
OPP 29
0
98.1%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to Armani Hayes, broken up by DeDarallo BlueSimilar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 14
OPP 29
-10
98.1%
RICE, Preston pass complete to HAYES, Armani for 16 yards to the TOLEDO13 (WOMACK,Samuel), PENALTY MUR holding (VANCE, Jacob) 10 yards to the TOLEDO39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 24
OPP 39
+11
98.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for 11 yds to the Toled 28Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 13
OPP 28
+45
97.6%
Zaden Webber 45 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 4FG
10 plays · 49 yds · 2:5998% → 97%
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+33
97.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 33 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
97.7%
SEYMOUR,Shakif rush for 3 yards to the MUR36 (KOCLANAKIS, A.), PENALTY MUR offside defense (HUMPICH, Scotty) 5 yards to the MUR34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 5
OPP 34
-2
97.7%
Mitchell Guadagni sacked by Kendrick Catis and Blake Hester for a loss of 2 yards to the MurrS 36Similar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 7
OPP 36
0
97.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+3
97.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 3 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q1 6:20
4TH & 4
OPP 33
+6
97.6%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 6 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:20
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
97.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:20
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+4
97.7%
Bryant Koback run for 4 yds to the MurrS 23Similar
Q1 6:20
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
97.7%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Danzel McKinley-LewisSimilar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+40
97.3%
Evan Davis 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q1 3:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.3%
Preston Rice run for 4 yds to the MurrS 29Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-10
97.2%
MCCRAY, Jared rush for 8 yards to the MUR37 (KING,DeAmonte;WOMACK,Samuel), PENALTY MUR holding (NESLER, Levi) 10 yards to the MUR19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:21
2ND & 16
OWN 19
+9
97.3%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 9 yds to the MurrS 28Similar
Q1 3:21
3RD & 7
OWN 28
+1
97.3%
Preston Rice run for 1 yd to the MurrS 29Similar
Q1 3:21
4TH & 6
OWN 29
+14
97.4%
Steve Dawson punt for 41 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 14 yds to the Toled 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 6TD
4 plays · 56 yds · 1:1697% → 97%
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+1
97.0%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q1 1:11
2ND & 9
OWN 45
+33
96.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 33 yds to the MurrS 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:11
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+14
97.0%
Bryant Koback run for 6 yds to the MurrS 16 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, personal foul (Alec Long) to the MurrS 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
97.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for 8 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 22 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
97.2%
Preston Rice run for 9 yds to the MurrS 31Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
97.1%
Preston Rice run for 6 yds to the MurrS 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+5
97.2%
Preston Rice pass complete to D'Andre McMillian for 5 yds to the MurrS 42Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 42
+6
97.1%
Preston Rice run for 6 yds to the MurrS 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
97.1%
Rodney Castille run for 1 yd to the MurrS 49Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 9
OWN 49
-6
97.1%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 43Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 15
OWN 43
+1
97.2%
Preston Rice run for 1 yd to the MurrS 44Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 14
OWN 44
0
97.3%
Steve Dawson punt for 39 yds , Devin Maddox returns for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 8TD
4 plays · 83 yds · 1:0797% → 98%
Q2 11:41
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
96.8%
Ronnie Jones run for 6 yds to the Toled 23Similar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 4
OWN 23
+66
96.8%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Bryce Mitchell for 66 yds to the MurrS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:34
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
98.3%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 9DOWNS
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+11
97.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 11 yds to the MurrS 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+5
97.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 5 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 5
OWN 37
+15
97.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to Daquon Green for 15 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:25
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+2
97.8%
Preston Rice run for 2 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 8
OPP 46
0
97.8%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to Sylvaughn Turner, broken up by DeAmonte KingSimilar
Q2 10:25
3RD & 8
OPP 46
+3
97.8%
Preston Rice run for 3 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q2 10:25
4TH & 5
OPP 43
0
97.9%
Preston Rice pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 10DOWNS
13 plays · 42 yds · 3:5798% → 98%
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+11
98.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 11 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-1
98.1%
Shakif Seymour run for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 47Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 11
OPP 47
-5
98.1%
TOLEDO Penalty, false start (Mitchell Berg) to the Toled 48Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 16
OWN 48
+16
98.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 1 yd to the MurrS 49 for a 1ST down MURRAY ST Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+2
98.1%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the MurrS 34Similar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 8
OPP 34
0
98.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Desmond PhillipsSimilar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 8
OPP 34
+14
98.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 14 yds to the MurrS 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
98.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Bryce Mitchell, broken up by Nigel WaltonSimilar
Q2 7:59
2ND & 10
OPP 20
+9
98.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Nick Kovacs for 9 yds to the MurrS 11Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 1
OPP 11
-5
98.1%
KOBACK,Bryant rush for 2 yards to the MUR9 (KOCLANAKIS, A.;HOGANCAMP, Aust), PENALTY TOLEDO illegal formation 5 yards to the MUR16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:59
3RD & 6
OPP 16
+1
98.1%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the MurrS 15Similar
Q2 4:02
4TH & 5
OPP 15
0
98.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Drew Rosi, broken up by Alec LongSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 11INT
12 plays · 56 yds · 1:482% → 3%
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+4
97.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 4 yds to the MurrS 19Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OWN 19
+8
97.6%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 8 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
97.5%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 7 yds to the MurrS 34Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+4
97.4%
Rodney Castille run for 4 yds to the MurrS 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
97.4%
Preston Rice sacked by Nate Childress for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 37Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+13
97.5%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 13 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:57
1ST & 10
50
+4
97.2%
Rodney Castille run for 4 yds to the Toled 46Similar
Q2 3:57
2ND & 6
OPP 46
+13
97.2%
Rodney Castille run for 13 yds to the Toled 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:09
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
96.9%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to LaMartez Brooks, broken up by Samuel WomackSimilar
Q2 2:09
2ND & 10
OPP 33
+4
96.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jared McCray for 4 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q2 2:09
3RD & 6
OPP 29
0
97.0%
Preston Rice pass intercepted Jordan Fisher return for no gain to the Toled 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 12END OF HALF
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+3
98.0%
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 7
OWN 20
0
97.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 20 Mitchell Guadagni fumbled, recovered by Toled Mitchell Guadagni , return for no gain to the Toled 20Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 7
OWN 20
+8
97.9%
Mitchell Guadagni run for 8 yds to the Toled 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-4
98.0%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Devin Maddox for a loss of 4 yards to the Toled 24Similar
Q2 1:48
2ND & 14
OWN 24
+11
97.9%
Bryant Koback run for 11 yds to the Toled 35Similar
Q2 1:48
3RD & 3
OWN 35
+2
97.9%
Bryant Koback run for 2 yds to the Toled 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 13PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 0:0097% → 97%
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
97.3%
Bryant Koback run for 8 yds to the Toled 29Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
97.3%
Bryant Koback run for 1 yd to the Toled 30Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 1
OWN 30
+16
97.2%
Bryant Koback run for 16 yds to the Toled 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:54
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.4%
Bryant Koback run for no gain to the Toled 46Similar
Q3 14:54
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-3
97.4%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for a loss of 3 yards to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 14:54
3RD & 13
OWN 43
+6
97.2%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 6 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 14:54
4TH & 7
OWN 49
0
97.1%
Bailey Flint punt for 51 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 14INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q3 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-3
97.2%
Preston Rice pass intercepted Samuel Womack return for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 15TD
1 play · 43 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+43
98.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 43 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 11:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
98.7%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for a loss of 1 yard to the MurrS 24Similar
Q3 11:22
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
98.7%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to Sylvaughn TurnerSimilar
Q3 11:22
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
98.7%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to LaMartez BrooksSimilar
Q3 11:22
4TH & 11
OWN 24
+16
98.7%
Steve Dawson punt for 51 yds , Devin Maddox returns for 16 yds to the Toled 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 17TD
9 plays · 59 yds · 3:4799% → 100%
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
98.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Reggie Gilliam for 2 yds to the Toled 43Similar
Q3 10:28
2ND & 8
OWN 43
+2
98.9%
Shakif Seymour run for 2 yds to the Toled 45Similar
Q3 10:28
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+16
98.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Shakif Seymour for 16 yds to the MurrS 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
0
98.9%
Mitchell Guadagni pass incomplete to Drew RosiSimilar
Q3 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+6
99.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q3 8:19
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+6
99.0%
Shakif Seymour run for 6 yds to the MurrS 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+20
99.1%
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 20 yds to the MurrS 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Bryant Koback run for 7 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 18MISSED FG
12 plays · 47 yds · 3:530% → 0%
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
99.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to LaMartez Brooks for 11 yds to the MurrS 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
99.8%
Rodney Castille run for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 30Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+3
99.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to D'Andre McMillian for 3 yds to the MurrS 33Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+22
99.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to Jacob Bell for 22 yds to the Toled 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
99.8%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 1 yd to the Toled 44Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
99.8%
Preston Rice run for 7 yds to the Toled 37Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+7
99.7%
Rodney Castille run for 7 yds to the Toled 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:41
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+4
99.7%
Preston Rice pass complete to Rodney Castille for 4 yds to the Toled 26Similar
Q3 6:41
2ND & 6
OPP 26
-2
99.7%
Justin Connor run for a loss of 2 yards to the Toled 28Similar
Q3 6:41
3RD & 8
OPP 28
0
99.8%
Preston Rice pass incomplete to Rodney CastilleSimilar
Q3 2:48
4TH & 8
OPP 28
+45
99.8%
Zaden Webber 45 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by David Hood DeAmonte King return for no gain to the Toled 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 19TD
1 play · 55 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+55
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Danzel McKinley-Lewis for 55 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 20PUNT
8 plays · 28 yds · 2:340% → 0%
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
99.9%
Rodney Castille run for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+18
99.9%
Preston Rice run for 3 yds to the MurrS 29 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Jordan Fisher) to the MurrS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:39
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Rodney Castille run for 4 yds to the MurrS 48Similar
Q3 2:39
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+3
99.9%
Preston Rice pass complete to Cory Thomas for 3 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q3 2:39
3RD & 3
OPP 49
+2
99.9%
Cory Thomas run for 2 yds to the Toled 47Similar
Q3 0:05
4TH & 1
OPP 47
0
99.9%
Steve Dawson punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 21TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 3:35100% → 100%
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
99.9%
Carter Bradley sacked by Scotty Humpich for a loss of 1 yard to the Toled 19Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 19
+18
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 18 yds to the Toled 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 7 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for 1 yd to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+9
99.9%
Dequan Finn run for 9 yds to the MurrS 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
99.9%
Dequan Finn pass incomplete to Darius Corbett, broken up by Nigel WaltonSimilar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 10
OPP 42
+42
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 42 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Sylvaughn Turner for 1 yd to the MurrS 26Similar
Q4 11:25
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Daquon Green for 4 yds to the MurrS 30Similar
Q4 11:25
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass incomplete to Justin ConnorSimilar
Q4 11:25
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
100.0%
Steve Dawson punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Toled 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 23PUNT
8 plays · 14 yds · 2:40100% → 100%
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+4
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 4 yds to the Toled 44Similar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 6
OWN 44
+1
99.9%
Micah Kelly run for 1 yd to the Toled 45Similar
Q4 9:53
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass complete to Jacquez Stuart for 9 yds to the MurrS 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:53
1ST & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Carter Bradley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 46
0
99.9%
Jacquez Stuart run for no gain to the MurrS 46Similar
Q4 7:13
3RD & 10
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Carter Bradley pass incomplete to Najeh BakerSimilar
Q4 7:13
4TH & 10
OPP 46
0
100.0%
Bailey Flint punt for 45 yds, downed at the MurrS 1Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MURDrive 24DOWNS
11 plays · 44 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 1
0
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for no gain to the MurrS 1Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+22
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for 7 yds to the MurrS 8 for a 1ST down TOLEDO Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for a loss of 3 yards to the MurrS 20Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+13
100.0%
Brendan Bognar pass complete to Elijah Downing for 13 yds to the MurrS 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+1
100.0%
Brendan Bognar run for 1 yd to the MurrS 34Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 34
+3
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for 3 yds to the MurrS 37Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+6
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for 6 yds to the MurrS 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+8
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for 8 yds to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 6:58
2ND & 2
OPP 49
0
100.0%
MJ Fuller run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 6:58
3RD & 2
OPP 49
0
100.0%
Cory Thomas run for no gain to the Toled 49Similar
Q4 6:58
4TH & 2
OPP 49
-6
100.0%
Cory Thomas run for a loss of 6 yards to the MurrS 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TOLDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 22 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+10
100.0%
Dequan Finn run for 10 yds to the MurrS 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+12
100.0%
Micah Kelly run for 12 yds to the MurrS 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 11:22
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Desmond Phillips for 43 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q2 10:34
Mitchell Guadagni pass complete to Drew Rosi for 11 yds for a TD, (Evan Davis KICK)
+1.3
KEY PLAY · Q2 1:48
Bryant Koback run for 3 yds to the Toled 20
+0.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com