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AKR

Akron 24 at Central Michigan 45

CMU
2019 · Week 3 · Sep 14, 2019 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadAKR aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreAKR score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDTDFGTDTDTDTDEnd of GameTD-2.8CMU 96.4%Kato Nelson pass complete to NateStewart for 7 yds for a TD, (JerryFitschen KICK)AWAY 24 - HOME 38 · Q4 3:44
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 3:44 · Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK)
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remainingScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+34.0+17.00−17.0−34.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 170Home team on offense+24.8Score differential+10.1Garbage-time factor+6.9Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+9.0Time remaining+2.9Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+2.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:23: David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +12.0 pts (now 74%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 3:35: Ryan Tice 43 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +9.1 pts (now 79%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 0:37: David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 0:02: Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 5 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK) — AKR win probability +9.8 pts (now 25%) (top driver: AKR has the ball).
  5. FG · Q3 6:00: Ryan Tice 35 yd FG GOOD — CMU win probability +9.8 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 7AKR made the numbers' call on 6 of 12
  1. Q1 15:00AKR 4th & 13 at AKR 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.7%−0.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:55CMU 4th & 6 at AKR 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 58.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.3%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    58.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:04AKR 4th & 8 at AKR 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 41.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.3%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    41.5%
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:12CMU 4th & 6 at AKR 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.6%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    58.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    57.3%−1.4
    average punt
  5. Q1 2:43AKR 4th & 21 at AKR 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    38.5%−1.1
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.7%
    average punt
  6. Q2 7:48AKR 4th & 10 at CMU 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 22.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.0%−1.3
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    22.2%
    70% to make
    Punt
    15.3%−6.9
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:35CMU 4th & 9 at AKR 25, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 77.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    76.2%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    76.8%
    66% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−5.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 3:35AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 40, down 17
    Close callPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.2%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    19.0%−0.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 15:00CMU 4th & 7 at CMU 25, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.7%−1.2
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.9%
    average punt
  10. Q3 13:32AKR 4th & 1 at AKR 40, down 17
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.7 ptsPunted · 16.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.9%−2.7
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:24CMU 4th & 1 at midfield, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    84.1%−2.6
    average punt
  12. Q3 6:00CMU 4th & 6 at AKR 17, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%−0.5
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    90.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    85.1%−5.8
    average punt
  13. Q3 6:00AKR 4th & 9 at AKR 26, down 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 4.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.6%−0.9
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    5.5%
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:43CMU 4th & 15 at CMU 43, up 20
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    94.9%−1.2
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    96.2%
    average punt
  15. Q4 15:00AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 48, down 20
    Close callWent for it · 2.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.3%−0.5
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    2.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 7:39AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 1.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.2%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    1.2%
    average punt
  17. Q4 6:13AKR 4th & 4 at AKR 41, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.8%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 3:44AKR 4th & 11 at AKR 45, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 4.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    3.5%
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    3.4%−0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:56AKR 4th & 15 at AKR 42, down 21
    Close callWent for it · 0.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.5%−0.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    0.5%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 5AKR made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q2 14:15CMU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    66.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    66.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:23CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 0:37CMU Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02AKR Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    17.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    17.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 11:15AKR Touchdown, down 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    7.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    7.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:39CMU Touchdown, up 19 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    98.2%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    97.6%−0.6
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 3:44AKR Touchdown, down 15 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    2.8%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    2.8%
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 1:56CMU Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
AKRDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 7 yds · 0:0049% → 49%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
51.1%
Michael Mathison run for 5 yds to the Akron 45Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 45
0
51.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+5
51.1%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
50
0
51.1%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
50
-3
51.1%
Deltron Sands run for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 47Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 47
0
51.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 47
0
51.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 39 yds, downed at the CMich 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 2PUNT
7 plays · 37 yds · 0:0052% → 51%
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+5
51.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the CMich 19Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 5
OWN 19
+28
51.5%
Kalil Pimpleton pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 28 yds to the CMich 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
51.7%
MOORE, David pass complete to SCOTT, Tyrone for no gain to the CMU47, PENALTY CMU ineligible downfield on pass (EIPPER, Steve) 5 yards to the CMU42, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 12:55
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+4
51.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 11
OWN 46
+5
51.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q1 12:55
3RD & 6
OPP 49
0
51.6%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q1 12:55
4TH & 6
OPP 49
0
51.4%
Brady Buell punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Akron 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0048% → 48%
Q1 10:04
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+1
51.7%
Brandon Lee run for 1 yd to the Akron 30Similar
Q1 10:04
2ND & 9
OWN 30
+1
51.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 1 yd to the Akron 31Similar
Q1 10:04
3RD & 8
OWN 31
0
51.9%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Andre WilliamsSimilar
Q1 10:04
4TH & 8
OWN 31
0
52.1%
Jonah Wieland punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 4FG
7 plays · 57 yds · 2:2552% → 54%
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+41
52.2%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 41 yds to the Akron 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+8
52.9%
David Moore pass complete to JaCorey Sullivan for 8 yds to the Akron 14Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & 2
OPP 14
+8
52.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the Akron 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.9%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Randy Cochran Jr.Similar
Q1 8:37
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.9%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the Akron 6Similar
Q1 8:37
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
52.6%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:12
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+24
53.7%
Ryan Tice 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 5PUNT
12 plays · 14 yds · 3:2946% → 45%
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+5
53.6%
Brandon Lee run for 5 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 5
OWN 29
+7
53.3%
Kato Nelson run for 7 yds to the Akron 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
53.3%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Dustin BurkhartSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
-2
53.4%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 34Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 12
OWN 34
+15
53.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-3
52.7%
Kato Nelson run for 10 yds to the CENTMICH 41 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding (-13 Yards) to the Akron 46Similar
Q1 6:12
1ST & 13
OWN 46
0
53.1%
Michiah Burton run for no gain to the Akron 46 AKRON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q1 6:12
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-4
53.2%
Kato Nelson sacked by Robi Stuart for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 42Similar
Q1 6:12
3RD & 17
OWN 42
-4
53.6%
Kato Nelson sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 4 yards to the Akron 38Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 21
OWN 38
0
54.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 40 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 6TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 3:1954% → 60%
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
53.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 9 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
54.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 6 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
54.1%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 37Similar
Q1 2:34
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+14
53.8%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 14 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+37
55.0%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 37 yds to the Akron 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:34
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+5
55.3%
Lew Nichols run for 5 yds to the Akron 7Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 7
+3
56.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Akron 4Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+4
60.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 7INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 14:15
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-2
58.5%
Michiah Burton run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 44Similar
Q2 14:15
2ND & 12
OWN 44
+7
59.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 7 yds to the CMich 49Similar
Q2 14:15
3RD & 5
OPP 49
+49
58.4%
Kato Nelson pass intercepted Sean Adesanya return for 49 yds to the Akron 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 8TD
3 plays · 5 yds · 1:2662% → 74%
Q2 12:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
61.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the Akron 3Similar
Q2 12:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
61.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the Akron 2Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
73.7%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 9FG
9 plays · 46 yds · 3:3530% → 32%
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
70.5%
Brandon Lee run for 1 yd to the Akron 32Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+22
70.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 22 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+23
69.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 23 yds to the CMich 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:23
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
68.4%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+1
68.4%
Dustin Burkhart run for 1 yd to the CMich 20Similar
Q2 11:23
3RD & 7
OPP 20
+2
69.0%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 2 yds to the CMich 18Similar
Q2 11:23
4TH & 5
OPP 18
-5
69.6%
NELSON, Kato pass complete to BURKHART, D. for 6 yards to the CMU12 (ANDERSON, N.), PENALTY AKRON illegal formation 5 yards to the CMU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:48
4TH & 10
OPP 23
+40
68.5%
Jerry Fitschen 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 10FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 4:1369% → 79%
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+13
69.0%
Lew Nichols run for 13 yds to the CMich 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+24
70.1%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 24 yds to the Akron 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 38
-2
70.5%
Lew Nichols run for a loss of 2 yards to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 12
OPP 40
+11
70.3%
David Moore pass complete to Bernhard Raimann for 11 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 1
OPP 29
+3
69.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Akron 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
70.5%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 10
OPP 26
-5
70.4%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for 4 yards to the AKRON22 (McDONALD, Tyson), PENALTY CMU illegal motion 5 yards to the AKRON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:48
2ND & 15
OPP 31
+6
70.1%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the Akron 25Similar
Q2 7:48
3RD & 9
OPP 25
0
69.8%
David Moore pass incomplete to Kalil Pimpleton, broken up by Alvin DavisSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 9
OPP 25
+43
78.9%
Ryan Tice 43 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0023% → 24%
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
77.1%
Deltron Sands run for 11 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:35
4TH & 4
OWN 40
+1
76.5%
Jonah Wieland punt for 40 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 1 yd to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
76.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 6 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q2 3:35
2ND & 4
OWN 40
0
75.0%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:35
3RD & 4
OWN 40
0
76.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 12TD
8 plays · 79 yds · 1:2780% → 92%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
80.2%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone Scott, broken up by Jordyn RileySimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 21
+12
80.1%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the CMich 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 33
0
80.4%
David Moore pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 10
OWN 33
+3
80.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 36Similar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 7
OWN 36
+24
79.9%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 24 yds to the Akron 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+5
81.2%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 5 yds to the Akron 35Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 5
OPP 35
+35
91.6%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 35 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 13TD
6 plays · 55 yds · 0:3513% → 25%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
87.2%
Kato Nelson run for 13 yds to the CMich 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+40
86.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Dustin Burkhart for 40 yds to the CMich 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:12
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
-3
85.0%
Kato Nelson run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 5Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
75.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 5 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 14END OF HALF
2 plays · -1 yds · 0:0082% → 82%
Q2 0:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
81.9%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0081% → 80%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
81.4%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 22Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+3
81.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 25
0
80.7%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 25
+6
79.9%
Brady Buell punt for 50 yds , Alvin Davis returns for 6 yds to the Akron 31Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0018% → 18%
Q3 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+2
81.6%
Kato Nelson run for 2 yds to the Akron 33Similar
Q3 13:32
2ND & 8
OWN 33
+4
81.8%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q3 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+3
81.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Timothy Scippio for 3 yds to the Akron 40Similar
Q3 13:32
4TH & 1
OWN 40
0
81.8%
Jonah Wieland punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17FG
12 plays · 60 yds · 5:2485% → 95%
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+18
84.8%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 18 yds to the CMich 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
85.5%
Lew Nichols run for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 4
OWN 47
0
85.5%
David Moore pass incomplete to Keonta NixonSimilar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 4
OWN 47
+3
84.9%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 11:24
4TH & 1
50
+3
84.4%
Lew Nichols run for 3 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+15
85.7%
Lew Nichols run for 15 yds to the Akron 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
85.7%
Lew Nichols run for 3 yds to the Akron 29Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+8
85.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 8 yds to the Akron 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+5
85.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 5 yds to the Akron 16Similar
Q3 11:24
2ND & 5
OPP 16
-1
85.7%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 17Similar
Q3 11:24
3RD & 6
OPP 17
0
85.3%
David Moore pass incomplete to Lew NicholsSimilar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 6
OPP 17
+35
95.1%
Ryan Tice 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 18PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:006% → 5%
Q3 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
94.5%
Brandon Lee run for 1 yd to the Akron 26Similar
Q3 6:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-3
94.5%
Kato Nelson sacked by LaQuan Johnson for a loss of 3 yards to the Akron 23Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 12
OWN 23
+3
94.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 3 yds to the Akron 26Similar
Q3 6:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
94.6%
Jonah Wieland punt for 26 yds, downed at the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0096% → 95%
Q3 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
96.0%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the CMich 48Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 10
OWN 48
-9
96.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CENTMICH 46 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Offensive holding (-15 Yards) to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 3:43
2ND & 19
OWN 39
-2
95.8%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 37Similar
Q3 3:43
3RD & 21
OWN 37
+6
95.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 3:43
4TH & 15
OWN 43
0
95.4%
Brady Buell punt for 57 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 20TD
20 plays · 80 yds · 5:173% → 8%
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
96.8%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Julian HicksSimilar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 20
-7
96.8%
NELSON, Kato pass complete to MATHISON, M. for 5 yards to the AKRON25 (JONES, Chuck), PENALTY AKRON face mask 7 yards to the AKRON13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+21
96.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 21 yds to the Akron 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
96.6%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Michael MathisonSimilar
Q3 1:32
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+3
96.7%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 3 yds to the Akron 37Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OWN 37
+12
97.3%
Kato Nelson run for 12 yds to the Akron 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
97.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Maverick WolfleySimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+4
97.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Michael Mathison for 4 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 47
0
97.2%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Timothy ScippioSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 47
-5
97.3%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+20
97.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Andre Williams for 20 yds to the CMich 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+13
96.9%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 13 yds to the CMich 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 19
-5
96.8%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the CMich 24Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 24
0
97.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete, broken up by Troy BrownSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 15
OPP 24
+14
97.0%
Kato Nelson run for 14 yds to the CMich 10Similar
Q4 12:15
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+9
98.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Dustin Burkhart for 9 yds to the CMich 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
98.1%
Deltron Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 3Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
91.6%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Junk for 3 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 21TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:3694% → 99%
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
94.0%
David Moore pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Josh WardSimilar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
94.0%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+28
93.9%
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 28 yds to the CENTMICH 45 for a 1ST down AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
94.5%
LEWIS, Kobe rush for 2 yards to the AKRON43 (ARSLANIAN, B.), PENALTY CMU holding (RAIMANN, B.) 10 yards to the CMU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+6
94.4%
David Moore pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 6 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 11:15
2ND & 14
OPP 49
+5
94.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the Akron 44Similar
Q4 11:15
3RD & 9
OPP 44
+33
94.3%
David Moore pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 33 yds to the Akron 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+11
99.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 11 yds for a TD, (David Moore pass to Kalil Pimpleton for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 22FUMBLE
6 plays · 0 yds · 1:261% → 1%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-7
98.9%
Kato Nelson sacked by Sean Adesanya for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 28Similar
Q4 7:39
2ND & 17
OWN 28
0
99.0%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete to Maverick Wolfley, broken up by Michael OliverSimilar
Q4 7:39
3RD & 17
OWN 28
+13
99.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Dustin Burkhart for 13 yds to the Akron 41Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+17
99.0%
Kato Nelson sacked by Troy Hairston and Jacques Bristol for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 48 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by CMich Troy Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the Akron 43 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Akron 48Similar
Q4 6:13
4TH & 4
OWN 41
+17
99.3%
Kato Nelson sacked by Troy Hairston and Jacques Bristol for a loss of 6 yards to the Akron 48 Kato Nelson fumbled, recovered by CMich Troy Brown , return for 0 yards , return for 2 yds to the Akron 43 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, sideline interference (15 Yards) to the Akron 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 23FUMBLE
2 plays · 15 yds · 1:2699% → 99%
Q4 7:39
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
99.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 15 yds to the CMich 42 Kobe Lewis fumbled, recovered by Akron John Lako , return for 25 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 6:13
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+25
99.3%
Kobe Lewis run for 15 yds to the CMich 42 Kobe Lewis fumbled, recovered by Akron John Lako , return for 25 yds to the CMich 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 24TD
7 plays · 42 yds · 2:131% → 4%
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 42
-1
99.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 11
OPP 43
0
99.3%
Kato Nelson sacked by LaQuan Johnson for 0 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 9
OPP 41
+12
99.3%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 12 yds to the CMich 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:57
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.1%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for no gain to the CMich 29Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+7
99.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Deltron Sands for 7 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q4 5:57
3RD & 3
OPP 22
+15
99.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 15 yds to the CMich 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.4%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Nate Stewart for 7 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 25DOWNS
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:44
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Kato Nelson run for no gain to the Akron 46Similar
Q4 3:44
2ND & 10
OWN 46
0
97.1%
Kato Nelson pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:44
3RD & 10
OWN 46
-1
97.2%
Kato Nelson pass complete to Brandon Lee for a loss of 1 yard to the Akron 45Similar
Q4 3:44
4TH & 11
OWN 45
0
97.4%
Kato Nelson pass incomplete AKRON Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 26TD
2 plays · 45 yds · 0:1298% → 100%
Q4 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+43
98.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 43 yds to the Akron 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
AKRDrive 27DOWNS
11 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 0%
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
99.5%
AKRON Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Akron 25Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 25
0
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass incomplete to Deltron SandsSimilar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+3
99.6%
Robbie Kelley run for 3 yds to the Akron 28Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 12
OWN 28
-5
99.6%
AKRON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Akron 23Similar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 17
OWN 23
+24
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Michael Mathison for 24 yds to the Akron 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
99.5%
AKRON Penalty, false start (Trevor Brown) to the Akron 42Similar
Q4 1:56
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+7
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Julian Hicks for 7 yds to the Akron 49Similar
Q4 1:56
2ND & 8
OWN 49
-7
99.5%
Robbie Kelley sacked by Max Saylor for a loss of 7 yards to the Akron 42 AKRON Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q4 1:56
3RD & 15
OWN 42
0
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:56
4TH & 15
OWN 42
+10
99.6%
Robbie Kelley pass complete to Jeremiah Knight for 10 yds to the CMich 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 11:23
David Moore pass complete to Tony Poljan for 2 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+12
TD · Q2 0:02
Kato Nelson pass complete to Maverick Wolfley for 5 yds for a TD, (Jerry Fitschen KICK)
-9.8
FG · Q3 6:00
Ryan Tice 35 yd FG GOOD
+9.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com