2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · UB Stadium
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Win probability · BUF
modelBUF aheadRMU aheadconfidence bandkey playBUF scoreRMU score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 15:00 · George Souders III punt blocked by Theo Anderson, punt out-of-bounds at the RbtMr 25 blocked by Theo Anderson
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorBlowout marginScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 1:46: Alijah Jackson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Bisceglia KICK) — RMU win probability +0.7 pts (now 3%) (top driver: RMU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 0:00: Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +0.5 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q2 0:34: Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK) — BUF win probability +1.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- FG · Q3 9:38: Alex McNulty 40 yd FG GOOD — BUF win probability +0.6 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 0:26: Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK) — BUF win probability +0.8 pts (now 100%) (top driver: BUF has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BUF made the numbers' call on 1 of 3RMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 7
- Q1 15:00RMU 4th & 3 at RMU 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snapGo for it1.1%−<0.152% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%average punt
- Q1 11:44RMU 4th & 7 at RMU 28, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.3% before the snapGo for it1.3%−0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.4%average punt
- Q1 10:47RMU 4th & 5 at BUF 46, down 7Close callPunted · 1.4% before the snapGo for it1.4%41% to convertField goal1.3%−0.123% to makePuntTheir call1.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q2 15:00RMU 4th & 1 at BUF 12, down 14Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.0% before the snapGo for itTheir call2.0%71% to convertField goal1.9%−0.186% to makePunt1.4%−0.6average punt
- Q2 4:21RMU 4th & 9 at BUF 10, down 14Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 2.9% before the snapGo for it2.8%−0.126% to convertField goalTheir call2.9%88% to makePunt2.2%−0.7average punt
- Q3 14:55BUF 4th & 2 at RMU 48, up 18Close callPunted · 97.5% before the snapGo for it97.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call97.4%−0.2average punt
- Q3 9:38BUF 4th & 21 at RMU 23, up 18Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.2% before the snapGo for it97.6%−0.68% to convertField goalTheir call98.1%70% to makePunt96.9%−1.3average punt
- Q3 9:38RMU 4th & 3 at RMU 49, down 21Close callPunted · 1.2% before the snapGo for it1.3%52% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.2%−0.1average punt
- Q4 15:00RMU 4th & 9 at RMU 26, down 28Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.1%−0.130% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 13:33BUF 4th & 12 at RMU 30, up 28Close callPunted · 99.9% before the snapGo for it99.8%−0.123% to convertField goal99.9%56% to makePuntTheir call99.8%−0.1average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BUF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5RMU made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
- Q1 11:44BUF Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.8%97% to makeGo for two98.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 4:10BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.4%97% to makeGo for two98.4%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:46RMU Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call2.3%97% to makeGo for two2.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 0:00BUF Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.1%97% to makeGo for two98.1%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 0:34BUF Touchdown, up 17 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call97.8%97% to makeGo for two97.8%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 0:26BUF Touchdown, up 27 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartRMUDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 7 yds · 0:001% → 1%
BUFDrive 2TD3 plays · 25 yds · 0:5499% → 99%
RMUDrive 3PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 11:44
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
98.7%
George Souders III punt for 21 yds , Theo Anderson returns for no gain to the RbtMr 49 Theo Anderson fumbled, recovered by RbtMr DeLano MadisonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 5 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q1 10:47
3RD & 7
OPP 48
+2
98.6%
George Martin pass complete to Garrett Houser for 2 yds to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 5TD10 plays · 82 yds · 4:3199% → 99%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 6TD6 plays · 75 yds · 2:242% → 3%
BUFDrive 7TD7 plays · 79 yds · 1:4198% → 98%
Q1 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+40
98.2%
Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 40 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 8FG21 plays · 65 yds · 10:392% → 3%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+21
98.0%
George Martin pass complete to DeLano Madison for 21 yds to the Buff 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
97.9%
George Martin pass complete to Garrett Houser for 9 yds to the Buff 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 40
-5
97.9%
Alijah Jackson run for 5 yds to the Buff 35 ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, Offensive holding (DeLano Madison) to the Buff 45Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 42
-5
98.0%
[SGUN], MARTIN, George rush for 12 yards to the UB30 (PATTERSON, Jame), PENALTY RMU illegal formation (HICKS, Trevor) 5 yards to the UB47, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 9TD19 plays · 75 yds · 3:4797% → 98%
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.9%
Matt Myers pass complete to Kevin Marks for a loss of 4 yards to the Buff 21Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 14
OWN 21
+27
96.8%
Matt Myers pass complete to Marlyn Johnson for 27 yds to the Buff 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 10
OPP 39
+5
97.0%
[SGUN], PENALTY RMU offside (TUPUOLA, Ezra) 5 yards to the RMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 4:21
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+5
97.1%
[PSTL], PENALTY RMU offside (CHARLES, Devyn) 5 yards to the RMU29, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:52
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+3
97.0%
Matt Myers pass complete to Jaret Patterson for 3 yds to the RbtMr 7Similar
Q2 0:38
4TH & 1
OPP 7
+4
96.4%
ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, Defensive offside (Supilani Mailei) to the RbtMr 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:34
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
98.1%
Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 10END OF HALF2 plays · -1 yds · 0:002% → 2%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 11PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 12FUMBLE4 plays · 5 yds · 0:002% → 2%
Q3 12:41
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+5
97.7%
[SGUN], PENALTY UB offside (WILSON, Eddie) 5 yards to the RMU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:41
3RD & 1
OWN 16
-4
97.6%
George Martin sacked by Malcolm Koonce for a loss of 4 yards to the RbtMr 12 George Martin fumbled, recovered by Buff Taylor Riggins , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 13FG5 plays · -11 yds · 1:3198% → 99%
Q3 11:09
2ND & 9
OPP 11
-15
98.3%
[SGUN], MYERS, Matt pass incomplete to LEFEBVRE, Zac, PENALTY UB pass interference (LEE, Daniel) 15 yards to the RMU26, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 14PUNT6 plays · 24 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
98.8%
George Martin pass complete to Deonte White for 17 yds to the RbtMr 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BUFDrive 15TD15 plays · 93 yds · 6:3099% → 100%
Q3 6:56
3RD & 6
OWN 11
+15
98.9%
[SGUN], MYERS, Matt pass incomplete to TODD, Carlton, PENALTY RMU pass interference (NEAL, Thomas) 15 yards to the UB26, 1ST DOWN UB, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 5:09
2ND & 1
OPP 44
+25
99.1%
Kevin Marks run for 10 yds to the RbtMr 34 for a 1ST down ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, personal foul (Tyler Lamica) to the RbtMr 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 16PUNT5 plays · 1 yds · 0:260% → 0%
BUFDrive 17PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 13:33
1ST & 10
OPP 28
0
99.9%
Kyle Vantrease run for no gain to the RbtMr 32 Kyle Vantrease fumbled, recovered by Buff Theo AndersonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
RMUDrive 18END OF GAME13 plays · 41 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 7:40
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+5
99.9%
[SGUN], JOHNSON, Jordan rush for 4 yards to the RMU39 (VAINIKOLO, Atun;HARRISON, Ja'Va), PENALTY UB offside 5 yards to the RMU40, 1ST DOWN RMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:40
2ND & 5
OPP 43
-3
99.9%
Jordan Johnson run for 7 yds to the Buff 36 ROBERT MORRIS Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Buff 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:34
Matt Myers pass complete to Zac Lefebvre for 3 yds for a TD, (Alex McNulty KICK)
+1.7
TD · Q3 0:26
Ron Cook Jr. run for 3 yds for a TD, (Jackson Baltar KICK)
+0.8
TD · Q1 1:46
Alijah Jackson run for 28 yds for a TD, (Nick Bisceglia KICK)
-0.7