2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Doyt L. Perry Stadium
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Win probability · BGSU
modelBGSU aheadMORG aheadconfidence bandkey playBGSU scoreMORG score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 5:18 · Nicholas O'Shea punt for 55 yds, downed at the BwGrn 16
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialBlowout marginGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
This game in five plays
- TD · Q1 11:07: Andrew Clair run for 3 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — MORG win probability +0.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q1 1:32: Quintin Morris 2 Yd pass from Darius Wade (Nate Needham PAT failed) — BGSU win probability +1.3 pts (now 94%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 7:01: Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +2.8 pts (now 97%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- TD · Q2 5:23: Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK) — BGSU win probability +1.4 pts (now 99%) (top driver: BGSU has the ball).
- FG · Q2 1:24: Nicholas O'Shea 27 yd FG GOOD — BGSU win probability +0.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: MORG has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
BGSU made the numbers' call on 4 of 7MORG made the numbers' call on 9 of 10
- Q1 11:07MORG 4th & 6 at MORG 43, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.3%−<0.140% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%average punt
- Q1 8:19BGSU 4th & 6 at MORG 43, up 7Close callPunted · 92.3% before the snapGo for it92.4%40% to convertField goal92.3%−0.128% to makePuntTheir call92.4%−<0.1average punt
- Q1 6:27MORG 4th & 8 at MORG 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.8% before the snapGo for it7.7%−0.132% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.8%average punt
- Q1 0:07MORG 4th & 16 at MORG 13, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snapGo for it7.2%−0.314% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.5%average punt
- Q2 12:32BGSU 4th & 4 at MORG 7, up 13Close callKicked a field goal · 93.1% before the snapGo for it93.1%41% to convertField goalTheir call93.0%−0.191% to makePunt90.9%−2.2average punt
- Q2 12:27MORG 4th & 2 at MORG 28, down 16Close callPunted · 7.3% before the snapGo for it7.5%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call7.3%−0.2average punt
- Q2 5:18MORG 4th & 7 at MORG 29, down 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snapGo for it1.5%−<0.136% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.5%average punt
- Q2 4:27BGSU 4th & 7 at BGSU 19, up 30Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.5% before the snapGo for it98.5%−<0.135% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call98.5%average punt
- Q2 1:24MORG 4th & 5 at BGSU 10, down 30Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 1.8% before the snapGo for it1.7%−<0.137% to convertField goalTheir call1.7%88% to makePunt1.4%−0.4average punt
- Q3 15:00MORG 4th & 9 at MORG 26, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.0% before the snapGo for it0.9%−0.430% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call1.3%average punt
- Q3 10:33BGSU 4th & 25 at MORG 33, up 27Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 99.4% before the snapGo for it98.7%−0.57% to convertField goalTheir call99.3%49% to makePunt99.1%−0.2average punt
- Q3 10:33MORG 4th & 11 at BGSU 45, down 27Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.5% before the snapGo for it0.5%−0.227% to convertField goal0.4%−0.325% to makePuntTheir call0.7%average punt
- Q4 15:00MORG 4th & 5 at MORG 44, down 34Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.2%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.2%average punt
- Q4 11:45MORG 4th & 12 at MORG 30, down 41Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snapGo for it0.0%−0.122% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call0.1%average punt
- Q4 9:44BGSU 4th & 1 at MORG 32, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%71% to convertField goal99.7%−0.251% to makePunt99.7%−0.2average punt
- Q4 9:44BGSU 4th & 5 at MORG 25, up 41Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%41% to convertField goal99.9%−<0.166% to makePunt99.5%−0.4average punt
- Q4 9:44BGSU 4th & 6 at MORG 7, up 41Close callWent for it · 99.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call99.9%−<0.132% to convertField goal99.9%91% to makePunt99.4%−0.5average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
BGSU made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
- Q1 11:07BGSU Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.7%−<0.145% to convert
- Q1 1:32BGSU Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call92.7%97% to makeGo for two92.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 7:01BGSU Touchdown, up 22 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call96.3%97% to makeGo for two96.3%−<0.145% to convert
- Q2 5:23BGSU Touchdown, up 29 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call98.6%97% to makeGo for two98.6%−<0.145% to convert
- Q3 2:07BGSU Touchdown, up 33 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call99.9%97% to makeGo for two99.9%−<0.145% to convert
- Q4 11:52BGSU Touchdown, up 40 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call100.0%97% to makeGo for two100.0%−<0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartBGSUDrive 1TD13 plays · 76 yds · 3:5394% → 94%
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 44
+7
94.2%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bryson Denley for 7 yds to the MorgS 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+9
94.2%
Darius Wade pass complete to Andrew Clair for 9 yds to the MorgS 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 32
+16
94.2%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 16 yds to the MorgS 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 2PUNT8 plays · 18 yds · 0:006% → 6%
BGSUDrive 3PUNT8 plays · 32 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
MORGDrive 4PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 0:007% → 8%
Q1 6:27
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
92.9%
CHASE,Josh rush for 3 yards to the MSU18 (BOZEMAN, Jamari), PENALTY MSU holding (TOUANI,Stefan) 8 yards to the MSU7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 6:27
4TH & 8
OWN 17
+23
93.1%
Nicholas O'Shea punt for 28 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the MorgS 45 MORGAN ST Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the MorgS 40Similar
Q1 6:27
2ND & 15
OPP 0
0
92.5%
GOLATT JR.,DJ pass complete to GRAVETTE,Xavier for no gain to the MSU10 (KONOWALSKI, Dav;BOZEMAN, Jamari), PENALTY MSU illegal formation off-setting, PENALTY BGSU personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 5TD7 plays · 40 yds · 2:0493% → 94%
Q1 3:36
1ST & 10
OPP 40
-10
92.8%
CLAIR, Andrew rush for no gain to the MSU40 (ZELEZNIK,M), PENALTY BGSU holding (NEVEROV, Sam) 10 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+1
92.8%
MORGAN ST Penalty, substitution infraction (1 Yards) to the MorgS 2Similar
Q1 1:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
94.1%
Quintin Morris 2 Yd pass from Darius Wade (Nate Needham PAT failed)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 6PUNT6 plays · -6 yds · 1:207% → 7%
BGSUDrive 7FG8 plays · 36 yds · 2:2894% → 94%
MORGDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 8 yds · 0:007% → 7%
BGSUDrive 9TD9 plays · 68 yds · 3:2794% → 97%
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
93.9%
Darius Wade pass complete to Austin Dorris for 3 yds to the BwGrn 35Similar
Q2 10:28
3RD & 7
OWN 35
+7
93.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 7 yds to the BwGrn 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+13
94.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Davon Jones for 13 yds to the MorgS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:28
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
94.3%
Darius Wade pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 2 yds to the MorgS 27Similar
Q2 7:01
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+27
97.1%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 10FUMBLE3 plays · -13 yds · 0:004% → 4%
BGSUDrive 11TD4 plays · 24 yds · 1:0297% → 99%
MORGDrive 12PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:001% → 1%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 3 yds · 0:0099% → 98%
Q2 4:27
3RD & 4
OWN 22
-3
98.5%
Darius Wade sacked by Merinio Dendoe for a loss of 3 yards to the BwGrn 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 14FG6 plays · 25 yds · 1:191% → 1%
BGSUDrive 15INT10 plays · 66 yds · 1:1599% → 99%
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+18
99.0%
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 18 yds to the MorgS 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.0%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Jordan Wayne-Prather, broken up by Marquise ThornsSimilar
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+8
99.2%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 8 yds to the MorgS 3Similar
Q2 0:02
2ND & 2
OPP 3
+7
99.2%
Nate Needham pass intercepted Maurice Lewis Jr. return for 7 yds to the MorgS 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 16PUNT6 plays · 1 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-10
99.1%
GOLATT JR.,DJ pass complete to ROBINSON,Juane for 6 yards to the MSU32 (HUDSON, JaJuan), PENALTY MSU holding 10 yards to the MSU16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+6
99.1%
Dj Golatt Jr. pass complete to Deontaye White for 6 yds to the MorgS 26Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
99.1%
Nicholas O'Shea punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BwGrn 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 17MISSED FG10 plays · 27 yds · 2:09100% → 100%
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.5%
Darius Wade pass complete to Andrew Clair for 16 yds to the MorgS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
99.5%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Quintin Morris, broken up by Dominick TriggSimilar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+11
99.5%
Darius Wade pass complete to Julian Ortega-Jones for 11 yds to the MorgS 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:42
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
99.5%
JONES, Davon rush for 7 yards to the MSU11 (IRVING,Tariq), PENALTY BGSU personal foul (KRAMER, Jack) 15 yards to the MSU33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 12:42
2ND & 25
OPP 33
0
99.5%
Darius Wade pass incomplete to Austin Dorris, broken up by Rico KennedySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 18PUNT8 plays · 22 yds · 0:001% → 1%
Q3 10:33
3RD & 7
OPP 41
-9
99.5%
Dj Golatt Jr. sacked by Jerry Roberts and Brandon Perce for a loss of 9 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 16
50
+5
99.5%
O'SHEA,Nicholas punt 20 yards to the BGSU30, downed, PENALTY BGSU roughing the kicker 5 yards to the BGSU45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:33
4TH & 11
OPP 45
0
99.5%
Nicholas O'Shea punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Jake Rogers at the BwGrn 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 19TD13 plays · 85 yds · 5:34100% → 100%
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+16
99.7%
Darius Wade pass complete to Bryson Denley for 16 yds to the MorgS 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:41
2ND & 9
OPP 43
+8
99.7%
Darius Wade pass complete to Jordan Wayne-Prather for 8 yds to the MorgS 35Similar
Q3 7:41
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
99.7%
Darius Wade pass complete to Davon Jones for 7 yds to the MorgS 24Similar
Q3 2:07
2ND & 3
OPP 7
+7
99.8%
Darius Wade pass complete to Davon Jones for 7 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 20PUNT7 plays · 19 yds · 2:010% → 0%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 21TD9 plays · 80 yds · 2:55100% → 100%
MORGDrive 22PUNT5 plays · -2 yds · 0:000% → 0%
BGSUDrive 23DOWNS16 plays · 61 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 9:44
4TH & 5
OPP 25
+14
99.9%
Grant Loy pass complete to N/A for a 1ST down to N/A for 14 yds to the MorgS 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
MORGDrive 24SF1 play · -4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 1:38
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
100.0%
BONNER,Doc sacked for loss of 4 yards to the MSU0 (BENCH, Andrew), PENALTY MSU intentional grounding (BONNER,Doc) 4 yards to the MSU0, NO PLAY, BENCH, Andrew safety, clock 01:38. for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
BGSUDrive 25END OF GAME4 plays · -7 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 7:01
Darius Wade pass complete to Quintin Morris for 27 yds for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
+2.8
TD · Q2 5:23
Davon Jones run for 1 yd for a TD, (Nate Needham KICK)
+1.4
TD · Q1 1:32
Quintin Morris 2 Yd pass from Darius Wade (Nate Needham PAT failed)
+1.3