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UALB

UAlbany 21 at Central Michigan 38

CMU
2019 · Week 1 · Aug 29, 2019 · Kelly/Shorts Stadium
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Win probability · CMU
modelCMU aheadUALB aheadconfidence bandkey playCMU scoreUALB score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 9:00 · Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 25 yds to the Alban 7 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 127Pregame prior+17.1Home team on offense+12.4Garbage-time factor+6.0Score differential+1.6Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+2.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.5
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 5:27: Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 36 yds for a TD, (Dylan Burns KICK) — UALB win probability +5.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 0:02: Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +4.2 pts (now 92%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 9:00: Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 9 yds for a TD, (Dylan Burns KICK) — UALB win probability +5.7 pts (now 14%) (top driver: UALB has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 4:55: Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.9 pts (now 96%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:17: Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK) — CMU win probability +7.4 pts (now 98%) (top driver: CMU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
CMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7UALB made the numbers' call on 8 of 9
  1. Q1 13:45UALB 4th & 9 at UALB 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 16.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.9%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:01CMU 4th & 5 at CMU 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.6%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.6%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:49UALB 4th & 11 at UALB 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:43CMU 4th & 4 at UALB 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 80.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    80.5%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    80.4%−0.1
    72% to make
    Punt
    79.4%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q2 14:56UALB 4th & 7 at UALB 35, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    14.6%−0.4
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    15.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:55CMU 4th & 1 at UALB 26, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.9%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    85.7%−1.2
    64% to make
    Punt
    82.6%−4.4
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:35CMU 4th & 7 at UALB 32, up 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 87.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.9%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    86.9%−<0.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    86.2%−0.7
    average punt
  8. Q2 5:27CMU 4th & 24 at CMU 13, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.0%−2.3
    6% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:04UALB 4th & 5 at CMU 22, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.0%
    72% to make
    Punt
    13.4%−3.6
    average punt
  10. Q3 15:00UALB 4th & 10 at UALB 25, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−1.2
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.1%
    average punt
  11. Q3 11:08UALB 4th & 7 at CMU 44, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 8.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    8.8%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    7.9%−0.9
    27% to make
    Punt
    8.8%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:00CMU 4th & 2 at UALB 32, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 85.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.5%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    84.4%−1.1
    51% to make
    Punt
    83.6%−1.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:55UALB 4th & 1 at UALB 38, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.6%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    5.3%−1.3
    average punt
  14. Q3 4:55UALB 4th & 1 at CMU 39, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    3.6%−2.6
    36% to make
    Punt
    3.7%−2.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 14:13CMU 4th & 3 at UALB 47, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 87.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    87.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    87.1%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q4 6:17UALB 4th & 4 at UALB 31, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.5%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    2.6%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
CMU made the numbers' call on 5 of 5UALB made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 4:43CMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:56CMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:27UALB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    15.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 0:02CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 9:00UALB Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    13.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:55CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:17CMU Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CMUDrive 1FUMBLE
5 plays · 36 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+14
87.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 14 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+7
87.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds to the CMich 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 46
+5
87.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 5 yds to the Alban 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+19
87.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 19 yds to the Alban 39 Jonathan Ward fumbled, forced by Levi Metheny, recovered by Alban Tyler CarswellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q1 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.9%
Karl Mofor run for no gain to the Alban 39Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+5
86.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Alban 44Similar
Q1 13:45
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-4
86.9%
Karl Mofor run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alban 40Similar
Q1 13:45
3RD & 9
OWN 40
0
86.9%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Jeff UndercufflerSimilar
Q1 13:45
4TH & 9
OWN 40
0
87.0%
Joey Mitchell punt for 33 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-3
86.5%
Quinten Dormady run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 24 Quinten Dormady fumbled, forced by Eli Mencer, recovered by CMich Quinten DormadySimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 13
OWN 24
0
86.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Joel WilsonSimilar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 13
OWN 24
0
86.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 13
OWN 24
+15
86.3%
ALBANY Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
86.5%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:01
2ND & 10
OWN 39
+2
86.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 2 yds to the CMich 41Similar
Q1 12:01
3RD & 8
OWN 41
+3
86.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q1 12:01
4TH & 5
OWN 44
0
86.4%
Brady Buell punt for 24 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Alban 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -1 yds · 0:0014% → 14%
Q1 9:49
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
85.7%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete, broken up by Brandon BrownSimilar
Q1 9:49
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-1
85.7%
Karl Mofor run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 31Similar
Q1 9:49
3RD & 11
OWN 31
0
85.8%
Karl Mofor run for no gain to the Alban 31Similar
Q1 9:49
4TH & 11
OWN 31
+14
85.9%
Joey Mitchell punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the CMich 41 , Kalil Pimpleton returns for 14 yds to the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 5TD
10 plays · 59 yds · 3:3386% → 86%
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+6
85.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Keonta Nixon for 6 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 4
OWN 47
+10
85.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Keonta Nixon for 10 yds to the Alban 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
85.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Alban 40Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 7
OPP 40
0
85.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 7
OPP 40
+12
85.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 12 yds to the Alban 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-5
85.7%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, illegal formation (-5 Yards) to the Alban 33Similar
Q1 8:16
1ST & 15
OPP 33
+4
85.6%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the Alban 29Similar
Q1 8:16
2ND & 11
OPP 29
0
85.7%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q1 8:16
3RD & 11
OPP 29
+7
85.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kobe Lewis for 7 yds to the Alban 22Similar
Q1 4:43
4TH & 4
OPP 22
+22
86.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 22 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 6FUMBLE
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0014% → 15%
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
86.0%
J. Undercuffler pass incomplete to D. Mcdonald, PENALTY CMU pass interference (ANDERSON, N.) 15 yards to the UALBANY39, 1ST DOWN UALBANY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+3
85.8%
Karl Mofor run for 3 yds to the Alban 42Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 7
OWN 42
+5
85.6%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (5 Yards) to the Alban 47Similar
Q1 4:43
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+13
85.5%
Karl Mofor run for 13 yds to the CMich 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
85.5%
Karl Mofor run for 6 yds to the CMich 32 Karl Mofor fumbled, forced by Michael Oliver, recovered by CMich D'Andre DillSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 7TD
8 plays · 68 yds · 3:1486% → 89%
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+17
86.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 17 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+3
86.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 3 yds to the Alban 48Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 7
OPP 48
+11
86.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 11 yds to the Alban 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
86.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Alban 36Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 36
+12
86.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 12 yds to the Alban 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:10
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+1
86.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the Alban 23Similar
Q1 3:10
2ND & 9
OPP 23
+9
86.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Keonta Nixon for 9 yds to the Alban 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
89.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 14 yds for a TD, (Quinten Dormady KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q2 14:56
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
87.8%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 14:56
2ND & 10
OWN 32
-4
87.8%
Alex James run for a loss of 4 yards to the Alban 28 ALBANY Penalty, illegal shift ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 14:56
3RD & 14
OWN 28
+7
88.1%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Alex James for 7 yds to the Alban 35Similar
Q2 14:56
4TH & 7
OWN 35
0
88.1%
Joey Mitchell punt for 42 yds , Kalil Pimpleton returns for no gain to the CMich 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 9FG
13 plays · 45 yds · 5:0789% → 92%
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+4
88.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 27Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 6
OWN 27
+4
88.7%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 31
+8
88.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 8 yds to the CMich 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
89.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 47Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 2
OWN 47
0
89.2%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 2
OWN 47
+3
88.9%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
50
+15
89.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 15 yds to the Alban 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:42
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+8
89.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Keonta Nixon for 8 yds to the Alban 27Similar
Q2 13:42
2ND & 2
OPP 27
+1
89.2%
Kobe Lewis run for 1 yd to the Alban 26Similar
Q2 13:42
3RD & 1
OPP 26
0
89.0%
Kobe Lewis run for no gain to the Alban 26Similar
Q2 8:55
4TH & 1
OPP 26
-6
89.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 9 yds to the Alban 17 CENTRAL MICH Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Jonathan Ward) to the Alban 32Similar
Q2 8:35
4TH & 7
OPP 32
+50
92.2%
Ryan Tice 50 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 10TD
8 plays · 88 yds · 3:089% → 15%
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
91.0%
Karl Mofor run for 1 yd to the Alban 13Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 9
OWN 13
0
91.0%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Jerah ReevesSimilar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 9
OWN 13
+10
91.1%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Jerah Reeves for 10 yds to the Alban 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:35
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
90.9%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Dev Holmes for a loss of 3 yards to the Alban 20Similar
Q2 8:35
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+8
91.0%
Karl Mofor run for 8 yds to the Alban 28Similar
Q2 8:35
3RD & 5
OWN 28
+36
90.9%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Karl Mofor for 36 yds to the CMich 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
85.2%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 36 yds for a TD, (Dylan Burns KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · -14 yds · 0:0087% → 86%
Q2 5:27
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-6
86.6%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Nick Griffin for a loss of 6 yards to the CMich 21Similar
Q2 5:27
2ND & 16
OWN 21
+2
86.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 2 yds to the CMich 23Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 14
OWN 23
-10
85.9%
DORMADY, Q. rush for 15 yards to the CMU38 (Tyler Carswell), PENALTY CMU holding (POWELL-WOODS, D) 10 yards to the CMU13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 5:27
3RD & 24
OWN 13
0
85.9%
Quinten Dormady pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 5:27
4TH & 24
OWN 13
-3
85.5%
Brady Buell punt for 52 yds , Donovan McDonald returns for a loss of 3 yards to the Alban 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 12MISSED FG
11 plays · 46 yds · 2:3314% → 14%
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
86.2%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Dev HolmesSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OWN 32
0
86.4%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Donovan McDonaldSimilar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 10
OWN 32
-5
86.8%
ALBANY Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Alban 27Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 15
OWN 27
+14
87.0%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Donovan McDonald for 14 yds to the Alban 41Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 1
OWN 41
+5
86.4%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, Defensive offside (D'Andre Dill) to the Alban 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+27
85.7%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 27 yds to the CMich 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:37
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
84.7%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Juwan GreenSimilar
Q2 3:37
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
84.8%
Karl Mofor run for 5 yds to the CMich 22Similar
Q2 3:37
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
85.2%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Juwan GreenSimilar
Q2 1:04
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+39
86.0%
Dylan Burns 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 13TD
11 plays · 78 yds · 1:0287% → 92%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
87.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 30Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+14
87.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 14 yds to the CMich 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
87.9%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 4 yds to the CMich 48Similar
Q2 0:33
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+28
88.1%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tyrone Scott for 28 yds to the Alban 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
87.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Kalil PimpletonSimilar
Q2 0:26
2ND & 10
OPP 24
+20
87.7%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 20 yds to the Alban 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:26
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
0
87.8%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tony Poljan, broken up by Tyler CarswellSimilar
Q2 0:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
91.5%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 4 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.6%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Juwan GreenSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
91.7%
Alex James run for no gain to the Alban 25Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
91.8%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Jerah ReevesSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Joey Mitchell punt for 34 yds, fair catch by Kalil Pimpleton at the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 15FUMBLE
1 play · 21 yds · 0:0092% → 92%
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+19
92.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 19 yds to the Alban 38 Jonathan Ward fumbled, forced by Eli Mencer, recovered by Alban Eli MencerSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 16TD
12 plays · 62 yds · 4:479% → 14%
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
91.5%
J. Undercuffler pass incomplete, PENALTY CMU pass interference (McCOY, Alonzo) 15 yards to the CMU47, 1ST DOWN UALBANY, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 13:47
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
90.9%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Dev Holmes for 9 yds to the CMich 38Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 1
OPP 38
-5
90.7%
ALBANY Penalty, false start (Niko Culnan) to the CMich 43Similar
Q3 13:47
2ND & 6
OPP 43
-3
90.8%
Alex James run for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 46Similar
Q3 13:47
3RD & 9
OPP 46
+2
91.5%
Karl Mofor run for 2 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 11:08
4TH & 7
OPP 44
+13
92.4%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 13 yds to the CMich 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
91.5%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Dev Holmes for 2 yds to the CMich 29Similar
Q3 11:08
2ND & 8
OPP 29
0
91.3%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete, broken up by Tico BrownSimilar
Q3 11:08
3RD & 8
OPP 29
+16
92.1%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Dev Holmes for 16 yds to the CMich 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+4
91.3%
Karl Mofor run for 4 yds to the CMich 9Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 9
+9
85.6%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 9 yds for a TD, (Dylan Burns KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:0588% → 96%
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
87.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 12 yds to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
88.1%
Quinten Dormady run for 12 yds to the CMich 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.6%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 11 yds to the Alban 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
88.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the Alban 36Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 6
OPP 36
-5
88.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Bernhard Raimann) to the Alban 41Similar
Q3 9:00
2ND & 11
OPP 41
+3
88.7%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the Alban 38Similar
Q3 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 38
+6
88.2%
Quinten Dormady run for 6 yds to the Alban 32Similar
Q3 9:00
4TH & 2
OPP 32
+25
88.0%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Jonathan Ward for 25 yds to the Alban 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
96.0%
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 18DOWNS
11 plays · 30 yds · 0:006% → 6%
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
94.5%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Dev HolmesSimilar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 10
OWN 29
0
94.7%
Jeff Undercuffler run for no gain to the Alban 29Similar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 10
OWN 29
+9
94.8%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 9 yds to the Alban 38Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 1
OWN 38
+1
94.6%
Jeff Undercuffler run for 1 yd to the Alban 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+8
94.4%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Jerah Reeves for 8 yds to the Alban 47Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 2
OWN 47
+5
94.2%
Karl Mofor run for 5 yds to the CMich 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:55
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
94.3%
Karl Mofor run for 3 yds to the CMich 45Similar
Q3 4:55
2ND & 7
OPP 45
0
94.3%
Jeff Undercuffler pass incomplete to Juwan GreenSimilar
Q3 4:55
3RD & 7
OPP 45
+6
94.4%
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Karl Mofor for 6 yds to the CMich 39Similar
Q3 4:55
4TH & 1
OPP 39
-2
94.5%
Karl Mofor run for a loss of 2 yards to the CMich 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 19FUMBLE TD
4 plays · 11 yds · 1:4196% → 90%
Q3 0:54
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
96.4%
Kobe Lewis run for 3 yds to the CMich 44Similar
Q3 0:54
2ND & 7
OWN 44
-3
96.4%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for a loss of 3 yards to the CMich 41Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+15
96.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 15 yds to the Alban 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+52
90.4%
Quinten Dormady sacked by Eli Mencer for a loss of 4 yards Quinten Dormady fumbled, recovered by Alban Eli Mencer , return for 0 yards , return for 52 yds, (Dylan Burns KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 20TD
17 plays · 77 yds · 7:5689% → 98%
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+8
89.3%
Jonathan Ward run for 8 yds to the CMich 31Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 2
OWN 31
+4
89.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
89.4%
Quinten Dormady pass incomplete to Tyrone ScottSimilar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+7
89.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Joel Wilson for 7 yds to the CMich 42Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 3
OWN 42
+4
89.5%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the CMich 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
90.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 1 yd to the CMich 47Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 9
OWN 47
+7
90.1%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the Alban 46Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 2
OPP 46
-5
89.9%
CENTRAL MICH Penalty, false start (Steve Eipper) to the CMich 49Similar
Q4 14:13
3RD & 7
OWN 49
+4
89.5%
Kobe Lewis run for 4 yds to the Alban 47Similar
Q4 14:13
4TH & 3
OPP 47
+6
89.2%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Tony Poljan for 6 yds to the Alban 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-1
90.4%
Kobe Lewis run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 42Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 11
OPP 42
+13
90.3%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Drayton Law for 13 yds to the Alban 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+7
90.8%
Kobe Lewis run for 7 yds to the Alban 22Similar
Q4 14:13
2ND & 3
OPP 22
+4
90.8%
Jonathan Ward run for 4 yds to the Alban 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:13
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
90.8%
Quinten Dormady pass complete to Kalil Pimpleton for 6 yds to the Alban 12Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
98.2%
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UALBDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 6:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
97.4%
Jah Dabney run for 6 yds to the Alban 31Similar
Q4 6:17
2ND & 4
OWN 31
0
97.2%
Karl Mofor run for no gain to the Alban 31Similar
Q4 6:17
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
97.3%
Jah Dabney pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 6:17
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
97.4%
Joey Mitchell punt for 45 yds, downed at the CMich 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CMUDrive 22END OF GAME
8 plays · 36 yds · 0:0098% → 99%
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+8
98.3%
Lew Nichols run for 8 yds to the CMich 32Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 2
OWN 32
+5
98.4%
ALBANY Penalty, Defensive offside (Mazon Walker) to the CMich 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
98.4%
Lew Nichols run for 6 yds to the CMich 43Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OWN 43
+7
98.4%
Lew Nichols run for 7 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
50
+6
98.5%
Lew Nichols run for 6 yds to the Alban 44Similar
Q4 4:28
2ND & 4
OPP 44
+1
98.5%
Lew Nichols run for 1 yd to the Alban 43Similar
Q4 4:28
3RD & 3
OPP 43
+4
98.5%
Lew Nichols run for 4 yds to the Alban 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:28
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-1
98.5%
David Moore run for a loss of 1 yard to the Alban 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 4:55
Jonathan Ward run for 7 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+7.9
TD · Q4 6:17
Jonathan Ward run for 12 yds for a TD, (Ryan Tice KICK)
+7.4
TD · Q3 9:00
Jeff Undercuffler pass complete to Juwan Green for 9 yds for a TD, (Dylan Burns KICK)
-5.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com