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NAVY

Navy 56 at Houston 41

HOU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadNAVY aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreNAVY score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 6:46 · Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 29
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+47.5+23.80−23.8−47.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 97Home team on offense−11.5Pregame prior−6.9Score differential−4.7Garbage-time factor−4.2Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−3.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 13:32: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 5 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +6.9 pts (now 42%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 14:49: Jamale Carothers run for 75 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.5 pts (now 73%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:48: Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 26 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +17.1 pts (now 50%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 2:06: Jamale Carothers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +18.2 pts (now 80%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 9:52: Tyreek King-El run for 18 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +13.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 6NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 13:31NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 71.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.1%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    71.0%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:32HOU 4th & 8 at NAVY 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 29.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    29.0%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    29.0%−<0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−0.2
    average punt
  3. Q2 11:22NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.4%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.5%
    average punt
  4. Q2 6:44HOU 4th & 8 at NAVY 10, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.0%−0.5
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.4%
    88% to make
    Punt
    23.7%−5.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 6:44NAVY 4th & 18 at NAVY 17, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 64.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.9%−2.2
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.1%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:04HOU 4th & 12 at NAVY 12, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.9%−1.6
    19% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    34.5%
    86% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−5.7
    average punt
  7. Q3 14:49HOU 4th & 5 at NAVY 41, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.5%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    26.0%−1.5
    32% to make
    Punt
    26.7%−0.9
    average punt
  8. Q3 8:54HOU 4th & 6 at NAVY 6, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.3%−0.3
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    26.7%
    91% to make
    Punt
    17.4%−9.2
    average punt
  9. Q3 6:46NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 29, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    77.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    74.6%−2.4
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 24, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 77.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    78.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    77.3%−1.1
    average punt
  11. Q4 5:50HOU 4th & 9 at NAVY 22, down 15
    Close callWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    5.5%−0.8
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    6.2%
    72% to make
    Punt
    3.5%−2.7
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8
  1. Q1 13:31HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:21NAVY Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 7:32NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 2:13HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    33.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    33.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 1:34NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 13:32HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 9:38NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 14:49NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 5:48HOU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    41.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    41.5%−0.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 2:06NAVY Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.5%−0.2
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 9:52NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.8%−0.3
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 5:50HOU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Numbers favored go for two by 1.9 ptsKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    11.4%−1.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    13.4%
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 3:26NAVY Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:2932% → 33%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
31.8%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
31.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for 5 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+67
32.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 67 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 4:1067% → 66%
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
32.8%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+2
32.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+2
32.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 13:31
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
32.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:31
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
32.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q1 13:31
2ND & 5
OWN 41
-3
32.7%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q1 13:31
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+54
32.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 54 yds to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:21
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
33.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 8 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
4 plays · 28 yds · 1:4966% → 68%
Q1 9:21
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-7
33.7%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Aymiel Fleming for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 9:21
2ND & 17
OPP 35
+9
33.9%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 9:21
3RD & 8
OPP 26
+9
33.9%
CJ Williams run for 9 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
31.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 17 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 5:1933% → 40%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
32.6%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 27Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+23
32.7%
Clayton Tune run for 23 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
50
+14
33.3%
Patrick Carr run for 14 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+1
33.4%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the Navy 35Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 35
0
33.7%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 9
OPP 35
+1
33.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 8
OPP 34
+16
32.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 16 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
33.8%
Patrick Carr run for 1 yd to the Navy 17Similar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+12
33.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 12 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
39.8%
Patrick Carr run for 5 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3963% → 69%
Q1 2:13
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+60
36.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 60 yds to the Houst 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
31.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 15 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 3:0233% → 42%
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
32.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q1 1:34
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+52
32.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 52 yds to the Navy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:34
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
35.0%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+15
35.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 15 yds to the Navy 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+5
35.3%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
42.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 5 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 2:1062% → 60%
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+11
38.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 11 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+5
37.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 5
OWN 41
+1
37.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 42Similar
Q2 13:32
3RD & 4
OWN 42
-2
37.2%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 40Similar
Q2 11:22
4TH & 6
OWN 40
0
40.3%
Owen White punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0042% → 42%
Q2 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+9
41.5%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Carter Bankston return for 9 yds to the Houst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10TD
3 plays · 3 yds · 1:2963% → 69%
Q2 11:07
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
37.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q2 11:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
37.1%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 3Similar
Q2 9:38
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
30.6%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FG
7 plays · 59 yds · 2:5434% → 39%
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+47
33.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 47 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+10
36.8%
Clayton Tune run for 10 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:38
1ST & 10
OPP 12
-4
36.8%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 16Similar
Q2 9:38
2ND & 14
OPP 16
0
36.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Tyler PistorioSimilar
Q2 9:38
3RD & 14
OPP 16
+6
34.4%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 8
OPP 10
+27
38.9%
Dalton Witherspoon 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · -8 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 6:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
36.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 26Similar
Q2 6:44
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-13
36.8%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Olivier Charles-Pierre for a loss of 13 yards to the Navy 13Similar
Q2 6:44
3RD & 22
OWN 13
+4
38.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q2 6:44
4TH & 18
OWN 17
0
38.7%
Owen White punt for 35 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13FG
9 plays · 40 yds · 3:4340% → 42%
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+5
40.4%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 5
OPP 47
+6
41.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 6 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+6
40.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 6 yds Marquez Stevenson fumbled, recovered by Houst Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 3
OPP 34
+33
42.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 33 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
42.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 6Similar
Q2 4:47
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
-9
42.3%
Clayton Tune sacked by Paul Carothers for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 15Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
0
41.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 4:47
3RD & GOAL
OPP 15
+3
38.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 3 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 1:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 12
+29
42.0%
Dalton Witherspoon 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
3 plays · 0 yds · 0:0060% → 60%
Q2 1:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
40.1%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 1:04
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
40.3%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0073% → 73%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
26.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 75 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16MISSED FG
14 plays · 69 yds · 5:5528% → 29%
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
28.3%
Patrick Carr run for 9 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+6
30.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Patrick Carr for 6 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
29.9%
Marquez Stevenson run for 6 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 46
-1
30.6%
Kyle Porter run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 45Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 5
OWN 45
+9
29.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 9 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
31.3%
Kyle Porter run for 5 yds to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 14:49
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
31.4%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Navy 41Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & 5
OPP 41
0
31.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Christian Trahan, broken up by Jackson PerkinsSimilar
Q3 14:49
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+33
29.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 33 yds to the Navy 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
32.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 14:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
32.5%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 14:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
31.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 8:54
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
28.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 23 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17DOWNS
6 plays · 9 yds · 2:0874% → 73%
Q3 8:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
25.6%
CAROTHERS, J rush option left for 60 yards to the HOU20 (OWENS, Gervarri), PENALTY NAVY holding (FORNEY, David) 10 yards to the NAVY10, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 8:54
1ST & 20
OWN 10
+7
25.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 8:54
2ND & 13
OWN 17
+11
26.0%
Myles Fells run for 11 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q3 8:54
3RD & 2
OWN 28
+1
25.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 6:46
4TH & 1
OWN 29
0
27.0%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18TD
3 plays · 29 yds · 0:5434% → 50%
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
33.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Kevin BrennanSimilar
Q3 6:42
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+3
33.3%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q3 5:48
3RD & 7
OPP 26
+26
50.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 26 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:4257% → 80%
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
43.0%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+1
41.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
42.2%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau, broken up by Damarion WilliamsSimilar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+13
42.8%
Mark Walker run for 13 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OWN 48
-1
39.8%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 5:48
2ND & 11
OWN 47
+29
41.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 29 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:48
1ST & 10
OPP 24
-5
38.0%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Ford Higgins) to the Houst 29Similar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 15
OPP 29
+29
19.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20INT
5 plays · 15 yds · 0:0024% → 26%
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
24.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 8 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+6
26.5%
Patrick Carr run for 6 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:06
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+1
25.6%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 40Similar
Q3 2:06
2ND & 9
OWN 40
-1
25.6%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Micah Farrar return for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21DOWNS
4 plays · 9 yds · 0:0977% → 76%
Q3 0:09
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+8
22.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 8 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 23
0
21.7%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau, broken up by Grant StuardSimilar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+1
22.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 24
0
23.8%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 22INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0030% → 30%
Q4 14:06
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
29.9%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted, touchback. Kevin Brennan return for no gainSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23TD
8 plays · 80 yds · 4:0478% → 95%
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
21.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 6
OWN 24
+7
20.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 7 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+1
20.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 13:56
2ND & 9
OWN 32
+5
20.9%
CJ Williams run for 5 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q4 13:56
3RD & 4
OWN 37
+7
20.3%
Myles Fells run for 7 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+36
19.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 36 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:56
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+2
17.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 8
OPP 18
+18
4.6%
Tyreek King-El run for 18 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24TD
11 plays · 71 yds · 4:028% → 16%
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
8.2%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+6
8.7%
Clayton Tune run for 6 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+16
8.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 16 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
9.4%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 42
0
9.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Terry MarkSimilar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 42
+19
9.2%
Patrick Carr run for 19 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
0
10.5%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 9:52
2ND & 10
OPP 23
0
10.0%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 9:52
3RD & 10
OPP 23
+1
9.5%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 5:50
4TH & 9
OPP 22
+22
16.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 22 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 25TD
8 plays · 78 yds · 2:2489% → 99%
Q4 5:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+6
10.6%
CJ Williams run for 6 yds to the Navy 28Similar
Q4 5:50
2ND & 4
OWN 28
+1
10.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 3
OWN 29
+47
9.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 47 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:18
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
7.2%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+19
1.3%
Jamale Carothers run for 19 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26INT
4 plays · 14 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+7
3.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the Houst 21Similar
Q4 3:26
2ND & 3
OWN 21
+7
3.0%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
3.0%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Evan Fochtman return for no gain to the Navy 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 27END OF GAME
5 plays · 25 yds · 0:0099% → 99%
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
1.5%
Nelson Smith run for 7 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+4
1.5%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+17
1.5%
Nelson Smith run for 17 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:25
1ST & 10
OPP 46
-2
1.3%
N/ASimilar
Q4 2:25
2ND & 12
OPP 48
-1
1.4%
N/ASimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 2:06
Jamale Carothers run for 29 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-18.2
TD · Q3 5:48
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 26 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
+17.1
TD · Q3 14:49
Jamale Carothers run for 75 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)
-13.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com