Try the model
TLSA

Tulsa 49 at East Carolina 24

ECU
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 30, 2019 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 13:43 · T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialPregame priorGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+56.0+28.00−28.0−56.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 11Home team on offense−0.1Score differential−0.1Pregame prior−15.9Garbage-time factor+0.0Score diff ÷ seconds remaining+0.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 12:09: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 29 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.8 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 4:45: Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +12.4 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 11:40: T.K. Wilkerson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.6 pts (now 97%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:55: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +10.6 pts (now 15%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:10: Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +8.1 pts (now 99%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9TLSA made the numbers' call on 3 of 4
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 27, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.5%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.6%
    average punt
  2. Q1 13:43TLSA 4th & 1 at ECU 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 66.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    66.0%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    65.8%−0.1
    83% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 11:44ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 41, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 34.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.8%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    34.9%
    average punt
  4. Q1 9:46TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 64.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    64.1%−0.2
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:32ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.1%
    average punt
  6. Q1 7:11TLSA 4th & 14 at ECU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.2%−0.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    63.3%−0.1
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.4%
    average punt
  7. Q1 1:42ECU 4th & 7 at TLSA 34, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    37% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.3%−0.1
    47% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−0.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 7 at ECU 37, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    36.7%
    average punt
  9. Q2 12:09ECU 4th & 10 at TLSA 43, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.5%−<0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    30.2%−0.3
    28% to make
    PuntTheir call
    30.5%
    average punt
  10. Q2 4:45ECU 4th & 15 at TLSA 47, down 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.7%−1.0
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.6%
    average punt
  11. Q2 0:59TLSA 4th & 10 at TLSA 44, up 18
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 85.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.2%−0.7
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    84.9%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:08ECU 4th & 11 at TLSA 21, down 25
    Close callWent for it · 1.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.7%−0.5
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    1.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    -0.9%−2.1
    average punt
  13. Q4 6:36ECU 4th & 9 at ECU 26, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−0.1
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 3TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 7
  1. Q1 1:06TLSA Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    63.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    63.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:09TLSA Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:45TLSA Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 11:40TLSA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 6:55ECU Touchdown, down 19 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 4:10TLSA Touchdown, up 24 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 14:31TLSA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 11:17ECU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    1.0%
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 6:36TLSA Touchdown, up 31 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 2:36ECU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.3%−0.2
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
0
33.8%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 23
0
33.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 23
+4
33.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 6
OWN 27
0
33.8%
Jonn Young punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2DOWNS
6 plays · 57 yds · 0:0066% → 66%
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
34.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+49
34.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 64 yds to the EASTCRLINA 9 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Shamari Brooks) to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:43
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+5
34.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q1 13:43
2ND & 5
OPP 19
+3
34.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the ECaro 16Similar
Q1 13:43
3RD & 2
OPP 16
+1
34.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 13:43
4TH & 1
OPP 15
-4
34.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+4
35.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 23
+12
35.2%
Holton Ahlers run for 12 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
35.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q1 11:44
2ND & 10
OWN 35
0
35.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 11:44
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+6
35.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 6 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 11:44
4TH & 4
OWN 41
0
35.1%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-7
35.9%
BROOKS, S. rush over right end for 4 yards to the TLS19 (ROBINSON, Dvndr), PENALTY TLS holding (COUCH, D.) 7 yards to the TLS8, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 17
OWN 8
+3
36.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 3 yds to the Tulsa 11Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 14
OWN 11
+10
35.9%
SMITH, Z. deep pass incomplete to STOKES, K., PENALTY ECU holding (SABA, Warren) 10 yards to the TLS21, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:46
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+8
35.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q1 9:46
2ND & 2
OWN 29
+1
35.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 9:46
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
35.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 9:46
4TH & 1
OWN 30
+48
36.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 48 yds , Tyler Snead returns for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q1 7:32
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
36.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:32
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
36.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 7:32
3RD & 10
OWN 21
0
36.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:32
4TH & 10
OWN 21
0
36.1%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+16
36.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds to the ECaro 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
35.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 38
0
35.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q1 7:11
2ND & 10
OPP 38
+6
35.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 7:11
3RD & 4
OPP 32
-5
35.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 5 yards to the ECaro 42 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Tulsa X'Zauvea Gadlin , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q1 7:11
4TH & 14
OPP 42
0
36.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7FG
10 plays · 52 yds · 3:2038% → 40%
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
37.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+9
37.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+16
37.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 16 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+1
38.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 9
OWN 41
+11
38.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 11 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+11
38.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:02
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+3
38.8%
Tay Williams run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 5:02
2ND & 7
OPP 34
0
39.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:02
3RD & 7
OPP 34
0
38.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q1 1:42
4TH & 7
OPP 34
+51
40.4%
Jake Verity 51 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8TD
3 plays · 75 yds · 0:3660% → 64%
Q1 1:42
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
40.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+66
36.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 66 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:0637% → 37%
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+11
36.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:06
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
37.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 1:06
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+4
38.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 4 yds to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 2
OWN 42
0
38.0%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for no gain to the ECaro 42Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OWN 42
-5
37.4%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OWN 37
0
36.5%
Jonn Young punt for 28 yds, downed at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10TD
6 plays · 65 yds · 1:5263% → 71%
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
36.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+13
36.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:01
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
36.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 14:01
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-2
36.0%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 14:01
3RD & 12
OPP 47
+18
36.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 18 yds to the ECaro 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+29
29.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 29 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11PUNT
9 plays · 46 yds · 0:0031% → 31%
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+12
30.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 12 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+1
30.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 0
0
30.4%
TULSA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct off-setting ( Yards) to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 9
OWN 24
+33
30.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 33 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:09
1ST & 10
OPP 43
0
32.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q2 12:09
2ND & 10
OPP 43
0
32.1%
Tay Williams run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 12:09
3RD & 10
OPP 43
0
31.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q2 12:09
4TH & 10
OPP 43
0
30.7%
Jonn Young punt for 28 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 8 , Keylon Stokes returns for no gain to the Tulsa 43 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (JuanCarlos Santana) to the Tulsa 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12TD
11 plays · 92 yds · 5:0070% → 84%
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 8
+5
30.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 5
OWN 13
+29
30.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 29 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
28.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 9
OWN 43
0
28.9%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q2 9:45
3RD & 9
OWN 43
+12
29.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 12 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
-10
28.9%
TAYLOR II, C. rush up middle for 11 yards to the ECU34 (WILSON, Jireh), PENALTY TLS holding (WHEELER, G.) 10 yards to the TLS45, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:45
1ST & 20
OWN 45
+8
29.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & 12
OPP 47
+39
29.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 39 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+2
28.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the ECaro 6Similar
Q2 9:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+2
28.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q2 4:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
16.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0020% → 21%
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+2
20.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 8
OWN 18
+27
19.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 27 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+13
21.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
21.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 42
-5
21.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 37 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 4:45
2ND & 15
OPP 47
0
20.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q2 4:45
3RD & 15
OPP 47
0
20.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Darius Pinnix Jr.Similar
Q2 4:45
4TH & 15
OPP 47
0
20.5%
Jonn Young punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 33 yds · 1:2883% → 86%
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+6
16.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 4
OWN 17
+15
16.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 15 yds to the Tulsa 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+7
16.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 7 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q2 2:27
2ND & 3
OWN 39
+5
16.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to JuanCarlos Santana for 5 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:59
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
13.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 0:59
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
13.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Daniel CharlesSimilar
Q2 0:59
3RD & 10
OWN 44
0
13.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to JuanCarlos Santana, broken up by Colby GoreSimilar
Q2 0:59
4TH & 10
OWN 44
0
14.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15END OF HALF
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q2 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
17.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 3 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q2 0:38
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+6
17.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 6 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16INT
5 plays · -5 yds · 0:0085% → 85%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
14.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+1
14.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
-10
14.9%
SMITH, Z. middle pass complete to BROOKS, S. for 4 yards to the TLS34 (HARRIS, Dlvntae), PENALTY TLS holding (SMITH, T.) 10 yards to the TLS20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 20
0
15.1%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Davondre Robinson return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FUMBLE
1 play · -8 yds · 0:0017% → 17%
Q3 13:28
1ST & 10
50
+21
17.1%
Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 21 Jsi Hatfield fumbled, forced by Jaxon Player, recovered by Tulsa Reggie Robinson II , return for 21 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18TD
4 plays · 21 yds · 0:3488% → 97%
Q3 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+2
11.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 19
+7
11.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 12:14
3RD & 1
OPP 12
+2
12.1%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the ECaro 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+10
3.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:453% → 15%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
3.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+3
3.3%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 32
+8
3.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the ECaro 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
3.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 7 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
3.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 3
OWN 47
+4
3.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
3.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & 2
OPP 41
-2
3.7%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 11:40
3RD & 4
OPP 43
+36
3.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 28 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, offside defense (8 Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 11:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-1
3.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Darius Pinnix Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+5
3.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 5 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q3 6:55
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
14.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20TD
8 plays · 58 yds · 2:4590% → 99%
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+28
10.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 28 yds to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
9.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 10
OPP 30
-9
9.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the ECaro 29 TULSA Penalty, Offensive holding (Tyler Smith) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & 19
OPP 39
+31
9.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 31 yds to the ECaro 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:55
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+4
9.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 4Similar
Q3 6:55
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
9.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 2Similar
Q3 4:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
1.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21DOWNS
14 plays · 49 yds · 2:021% → 1%
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
1.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 4 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+8
1.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Anthony Watley for 8 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+7
1.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 7 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q3 4:10
2ND & 3
OPP 48
+3
1.6%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:10
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
1.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-5
1.2%
AHLERS, Holton deep pass complete to JOHNSON, C.J. for 45 yards to the TLS0, clock 02:08, PENALTY ECU ineligible downfield on pass (PENA, Branden) 5 yards to the 50 yardline, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 15
50
+15
1.0%
AHLERS, Holton deep pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY TLS pass interference (ROBINSON II, R.) 15 yards to the TLS35, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
1.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Leroy HenleySimilar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+15
1.3%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to PROEHL, Blake (GREEN IV, A.), PENALTY TLS pass interference (GREEN IV, A.) 15 yards to the TLS20, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 2:08
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-4
1.4%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 2:08
2ND & 14
OPP 24
0
1.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Cristian WilliamsSimilar
Q3 2:08
3RD & 14
OPP 24
+3
1.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q3 2:08
4TH & 11
OPP 21
+3
1.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 3 yds to the Tulsa 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
4 plays · 82 yds · 0:5099% → 99%
Q3 0:21
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+9
1.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q3 0:21
2ND & 1
OWN 27
+55
1.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 55 yds to the ECaro 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+6
0.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 4
OPP 12
+12
0.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 12 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
12 plays · 78 yds · 3:141% → 1%
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 22
0
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 10
OWN 22
+5
0.6%
AHLERS, Holton rush quarterback keeper for 8 yards to the ECU30 (DAVIS, T.), PENALTY TLS offside defense (WICK, C.) 5 yards to the ECU27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 5
OWN 27
+7
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 7 yds to the ECaro 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+10
0.6%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., dropped pass (GREEN IV, A.), PENALTY TLS pass interference (GREEN IV, A.) 10 yards to the ECU44, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
0.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 10
OWN 44
0
0.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Manny BunchSimilar
Q4 14:31
3RD & 10
OWN 44
+11
0.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:31
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
0.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Demetrius Mauney for 4 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q4 14:31
2ND & 6
OPP 41
+6
0.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+35
0.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:4199% → 100%
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
0.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+12
0.7%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+8
0.6%
Zach Smith run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 2
OWN 45
+3
0.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:17
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+8
0.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 8 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 2
OPP 44
-10
0.6%
WILKERSON, T. rush up middle for 9 yards to the ECU35 (McMILLIAN, Ja'Q), PENALTY TLS holding (WHEELER, G.) 10 yards to the TLS46, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
2ND & 12
OWN 46
+6
0.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 6 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+5
0.6%
SMITH, Z. sacked for loss of 7 yards to the TLS45 (FUTRELL, Kendal), fumble by SMITH, Z. recovered by ECU PURVIS, Chance at TLS45, PURVIS, Chance for 14 yards to the TLS31, PENALTY ECU offside defense (FUTRELL, Kendal) 5 yards to the ECU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:17
3RD & 1
OPP 43
+4
0.6%
Chris Lovick run for 4 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+39
0.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Ethan Hall for 39 yds for a TD (Danny Donley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25PUNT
5 plays · 1 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 6:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
0.2%
Darius Pinnix Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q4 6:36
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q4 6:36
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q4 6:36
4TH & 9
OWN 26
0
0.2%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26FUMBLE
5 plays · 15 yds · 2:00100% → 100%
Q4 5:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q4 5:55
2ND & 4
OWN 36
+3
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q4 5:55
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+7
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:55
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+8
0.1%
Chris Lovick run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 37 Chris Lovick fumbled, recovered by ECaro Xavier Smith , return for 8 yds to the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
3 plays · 37 yds · 1:110% → 0%
Q4 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-6
0.1%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 3:47
2ND & 16
OPP 43
+9
0.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the Tulsa 34Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 7
OPP 34
+34
0.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 34 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 28END OF GAME
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+5
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+3
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 49
+4
0.2%
Chris Lovick run for 4 yds to the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 4:45
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
-12.4
TD · Q3 6:55
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
+10.6
TD · Q3 11:40
T.K. Wilkerson run for 10 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
-8.6
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com