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USF

South Florida 7 at UCF 34

UCF
2019 · Week 14 · Nov 29, 2019 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 13:31 · Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Antwan Collier return for 20 yds to the UCF 30
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+44.5+22.30−22.3−44.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 59Pregame prior+36.3Home team on offense+2.3Score differential+0.6Garbage-time factor−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.0Blowout margin+0.4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 11:41: Adrian Killins Jr. 35 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick) — UCF win probability +2.2 pts (now 94%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q2 5:32: Gabriel Davis 32 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick) — UCF win probability +4.2 pts (now 97%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 7:23: Johnny Ford 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick) — USF win probability +3.4 pts (now 6%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. KEY PLAY · Q3 7:23: Spencer Shrader kickoff for 56 yds , Bentavious Thompson return for 9 yds to the UCF 18 — UCF win probability +1.1 pts (now 95%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 4:22: Darriel Mack Jr. 2 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick) — UCF win probability +2.5 pts (now 99%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 7 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 10:05USF 4th & 6 at USF 39, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.4%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.4%
    average punt
  2. Q1 8:06UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 35, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.2%−0.1
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    92.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:41UCF 4th & 14 at USF 22, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    91.6%−0.2
    17% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.8%
    72% to make
    Punt
    91.2%−0.6
    average punt
  4. Q1 2:32USF 4th & 14 at USF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.4%−0.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.7%
    average punt
  5. Q1 1:29UCF 4th & 1 at USF 34, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 91.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    91.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    90.8%−0.4
    47% to make
    Punt
    90.7%−0.6
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:31USF 4th & 6 at UCF 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 9.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    9.8%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    9.7%−0.1
    49% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−0.3
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:31USF 4th & 7 at USF 38, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.5%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.8%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:02USF 4th & 21 at USF 35, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 3.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    2.8%−0.6
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.4%
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:03UCF 4th & 11 at USF 33, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 97.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    96.7%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    96.9%
    49% to make
    Punt
    96.7%−0.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 11:13UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 8, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 97.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.1%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    97.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 7:23USF 4th & 1 at UCF 1, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    1.5%−0.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    0.1%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:11USF 4th & 10 at USF 25, down 24
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.5%−0.3
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.8%
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:00UCF 4th & 1 at USF 12, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    98.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    98.5%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    97.7%−1.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:26UCF 4th & 10 at USF 10, up 24
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.7%−0.1
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.8%
    88% to make
    Punt
    98.0%−0.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:45USF 4th & 5 at UCF 22, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.1%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    0.3%
    72% to make
    Punt
    -0.2%−0.5
    average punt
  16. Q4 5:00USF 4th & 3 at UCF 3, down 27
    Close callWent for it · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    0.3%−0.1
    44% to convert
    Field goal
    0.4%
    93% to make
    Punt
    -0.1%−0.5
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1
  1. Q1 12:27UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 11:41UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    92.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    92.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 5:32UCF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    96.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 7:23USF Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    4.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 4:22UCF Touchdown, up 23 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    98.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    98.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
UCFDrive 1TD
13 plays · 65 yds · 2:2394% → 94%
Q1 14:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
94.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 3 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+3
94.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 3 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q1 14:10
3RD & 4
OWN 41
+9
94.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
50
+2
94.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 2 yds to the SFla 48Similar
Q1 13:25
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+6
93.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q1 13:10
3RD & 2
OPP 42
+7
93.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
93.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 13:00
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+7
93.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 12:50
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+9
93.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 9 yds to the SFla 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
93.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 12:33
2ND & 10
OPP 19
0
93.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 12:27
3RD & 10
OPP 19
+19
93.9%
Gabriel Davis 19 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2PUNT
9 plays · 14 yds · 2:226% → 7%
Q1 12:27
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
93.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Johnny Ford) to the SFla 20Similar
Q1 12:05
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+5
93.8%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q1 11:48
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+10
93.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:25
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-3
93.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 11:07
2ND & 13
OWN 32
0
93.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:58
3RD & 13
OWN 32
+12
93.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 12 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q1 10:28
4TH & 1
OWN 44
-5
93.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (William Atterbury) to the SFla 39Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 6
OWN 39
0
93.5%
Trent Schneider punt for 61 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · 15 yds · 1:4494% → 93%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
93.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 9:37
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+9
93.5%
Greg McCrae run for 9 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 4 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 6
OWN 38
-10
93.5%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 16
OWN 28
0
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 8:37
3RD & 16
OWN 28
+7
93.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q1 8:06
4TH & 9
OWN 35
0
93.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4FUMBLE
1 play · 2 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+2
93.1%
TEAM run for 2 yds to the SFla 29 TEAM fumbled, recovered by UCF Nate EvansSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5MISSED FG
6 plays · 7 yds · 2:1193% → 93%
Q1 7:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+11
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 11 yds to the SFla 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:26
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
93.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 7:10
2ND & 7
OPP 15
0
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the SFla 15Similar
Q1 6:40
3RD & 7
OPP 15
-15
93.1%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Pass Interference (Gabriel Davis) to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 6:19
3RD & 22
OPP 30
+8
93.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 5:41
4TH & 14
OPP 22
+39
92.7%
Dylan Barnas 39 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
9 plays · 6 yds · 2:507% → 8%
Q1 5:22
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+8
92.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to DeVontres Dukes for 8 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q1 5:00
2ND & 2
OWN 30
+2
92.5%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-5
92.5%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Mitchell Wilcox) to the SFla 27Similar
Q1 4:20
1ST & 15
OWN 27
+7
92.5%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nate Evans) to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 4:14
1ST & 8
OWN 34
0
92.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q1 3:55
2ND & 8
OWN 34
-1
92.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 3:23
3RD & 9
OWN 33
0
92.5%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Antwan Collier for 0 yards to the SFla 33Similar
Q1 2:43
4TH & 9
OWN 33
-5
92.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 28Similar
Q1 2:32
4TH & 14
OWN 28
+10
92.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 47 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 10 yds to the UCF 38 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 7DOWNS
5 plays · 17 yds · 0:4892% → 92%
Q1 2:17
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+12
92.4%
Greg McCrae run for 12 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-2
92.5%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 45Similar
Q1 1:49
2ND & 12
OPP 45
0
92.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 1:35
3RD & 12
OPP 45
+11
92.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 11 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q1 1:29
4TH & 1
OPP 34
-4
92.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8INT
9 plays · 29 yds · 2:298% → 9%
Q1 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-1
91.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 37Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 11
OWN 37
-5
91.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 0:31
2ND & 16
OWN 32
+31
92.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 31 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+5
91.3%
Eddie McDoom run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q2 14:23
2ND & 5
OPP 32
0
90.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Bryce MillerSimilar
Q2 14:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
-1
91.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 13:31
4TH & 6
OPP 33
+20
91.2%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Antwan Collier return for 20 yds to the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 9TD
8 plays · 70 yds · 1:3891% → 94%
Q2 13:19
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
91.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 14 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:55
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+7
91.8%
Otis Anderson run for 7 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 12:40
2ND & 3
OPP 49
+1
91.8%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 12:30
3RD & 2
OPP 48
+3
91.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:12
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
91.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 12:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+10
91.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 10 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:48
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
91.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 11:41
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+35
93.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. 35 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10PUNT
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:537% → 7%
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
93.3%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the SFla 26Similar
Q2 10:54
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+5
93.3%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 5 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 10:20
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+4
93.2%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 4 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+4
93.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 9:12
2ND & 6
OWN 39
0
93.0%
Jah'Quez Evans pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q2 8:47
3RD & 6
OWN 39
-1
93.2%
Jah'Quez Evans run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 38Similar
Q2 8:31
4TH & 7
OWN 38
0
93.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 49 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
11 plays · 87 yds · 2:5693% → 97%
Q2 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 8:15
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+17
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 17 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
93.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 4 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 7:50
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+7
93.2%
Greg McCrae run for 7 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:37
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q2 7:23
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+7
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q2 7:07
3RD & 3
OWN 48
+8
93.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 8 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-4
93.5%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Greg Reaves for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 48Similar
Q2 6:20
2ND & 14
OPP 48
+4
93.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 44
+12
93.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 12 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
97.4%
Gabriel Davis 32 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
11 plays · 10 yds · 3:104% → 3%
Q2 5:12
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-4
96.4%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 21Similar
Q2 4:48
2ND & 14
OWN 21
0
96.5%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q2 4:21
3RD & 14
OWN 21
+25
96.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 25 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
96.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Illegal Block (-15 Yards) to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 3:30
1ST & 25
OWN 31
0
96.7%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Brend Hayes for 0 yards to the SFla 31Similar
Q2 2:55
2ND & 25
OWN 31
-2
96.8%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 29Similar
Q2 2:17
3RD & 27
OWN 29
+6
97.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q2 2:02
4TH & 21
OWN 35
0
97.0%
Trent Schneider punt for 25 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13DOWNS
11 plays · 27 yds · 1:4798% → 98%
Q2 1:50
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
97.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 15 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:30
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
97.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 1:15
2ND & 4
OPP 39
+3
97.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q2 1:10
3RD & 1
OPP 36
+4
97.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
98.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q2 0:44
2ND & 10
OPP 29
-12
98.0%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the SFla 29 UCF Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (-15 Yards) to the SFla 44Similar
Q2 0:36
2ND & 22
OPP 44
+2
97.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q2 0:36
3RD & 20
OPP 42
-5
97.7%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Marlon Williams) to the SFla 47Similar
Q2 0:21
3RD & 25
OPP 47
+14
97.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 14 yds to the SFla 33Similar
Q2 0:03
4TH & 11
OPP 33
+50
97.6%
Dylan Barnas 50 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:403% → 3%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
97.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 14:18
2ND & 6
OWN 29
0
96.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 13:40
3RD & 6
OWN 29
-5
96.8%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, False Start (Marcus Norman) to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 13:15
3RD & 1
OWN 24
-5
97.1%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 12:50
3RD & 6
OWN 19
+10
97.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 10 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:05
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-6
97.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 53 yds , Otis Anderson returns for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 23 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (6 Yards) to the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:2798% → 98%
Q3 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
97.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 11:32
2ND & 8
OWN 8
0
97.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 11:25
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
97.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 11:13
4TH & 8
OWN 8
0
97.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 67 yds, downed at the SFla 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:452% → 6%
Q3 11:08
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
97.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+21
97.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 6 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unnecessary Roughness (15 Yards) to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+39
97.7%
Johnny Ford run for 39 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+5
97.4%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q3 9:15
2ND & 5
OPP 10
+7
97.5%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
97.5%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 4Similar
Q3 8:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
97.6%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 7:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
97.6%
Johnny Ford run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q3 7:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
94.2%
Johnny Ford 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
10 plays · 82 yds · 2:4896% → 99%
Q3 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+17
96.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 17 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:53
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+12
96.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:42
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-5
96.4%
UCF Penalty, Illegal Formation (-5 Yards) to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 6:28
1ST & 15
OWN 42
+9
96.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 9 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q3 6:15
2ND & 6
OPP 49
+4
96.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 2
OPP 45
+4
96.3%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:08
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+37
96.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Tre Nixon for 37 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:52
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+2
96.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the SFla 2Similar
Q3 4:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
99.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. 2 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 0 yds · 1:042% → 2%
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kelley Joiner Jr.Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
98.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for no gain to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 3:31
3RD & 10
OWN 25
0
98.3%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Kelley Joiner Jr.Similar
Q3 3:11
4TH & 10
OWN 25
+5
98.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds , Otis Anderson returns for 5 yds to the UCF 30 UCF Penalty, Illegal Block (10 Yards) to the UCF 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20FG
11 plays · 65 yds · 3:3199% → 100%
Q3 2:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
99.0%
UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (Edward Collins) to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 2:38
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+13
99.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Greg McCrae for 13 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q3 1:46
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+51
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 51 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:20
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the SFla 21Similar
Q3 1:00
2ND & 10
OPP 21
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q3 0:45
3RD & 10
OPP 21
+9
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q3 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 12
+2
99.2%
Greg McCrae run for 2 yds to the SFla 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 14:30
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 14:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 10
+27
99.8%
Dylan Barnas 27 Yd Field Goal Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21INT
22 plays · 83 yds · 9:050% → 0%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 14
-3
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for a loss of 3 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 13:30
2ND & 13
OWN 11
+12
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 12 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 1
OWN 23
+7
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for 7 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+4
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 4 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q4 11:45
2ND & 6
OWN 34
+6
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for 6 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:15
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for 2 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+21
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Terrence Horne for 21 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+1
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for 1 yd to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 9:46
2ND & 9
OPP 36
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q4 9:21
3RD & 9
OPP 36
+9
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 9 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Terrence HorneSimilar
Q4 8:45
2ND & 10
OPP 27
+5
99.9%
Johnny Ford run for 5 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 8:05
3RD & 5
OPP 22
0
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Johnny FordSimilar
Q4 7:45
4TH & 5
OPP 22
+5
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 5 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:09
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
99.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 16Similar
Q4 6:51
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+14
99.9%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Aaron Robinson) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:39
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 1 yd to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 5:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
99.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 1Similar
Q4 5:25
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
99.9%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 3Similar
Q4 5:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+14
99.9%
Jordan McCloud pass intercepted Eriq Gilyard return for 14 yds to the UCF 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22Uncategorized
12 plays · 47 yds · 4:41100% → 100%
Q4 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+2
99.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 4:13
2ND & 8
OWN 21
0
99.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 4:08
3RD & 8
OWN 21
+3
99.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q4 4:08
4TH & 5
OWN 24
+5
99.9%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:50
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+11
100.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 11 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+2
100.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q4 2:20
2ND & 8
OWN 42
+7
100.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 1:30
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+3
100.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+10
100.0%
Trilion Coles run for 10 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:53
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+9
100.0%
Trilion Coles run for 9 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q4 0:09
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
100.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 5:32
Gabriel Davis 32 Yd pass from Dillon Gabriel (Dylan Barnas Kick)
+4.2
TD · Q3 7:23
Johnny Ford 1 Yd Run (Coby Weiss Kick)
-3.4
TD · Q3 4:22
Darriel Mack Jr. 2 Yd Run (Dylan Barnas Kick)
+2.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com