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SMU

SMU 28 at Navy 35

NAVY
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
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Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 7:01 · Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG MISSED
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 23Home team on offense+0.3Pregame prior+4.4Garbage-time factor−0.2Score differential−0.2Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin−0.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:22: Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds for a TD — SMU win probability +9.9 pts (now 54%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 8:58: Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.8 pts (now 50%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 14:19: Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 13 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 14:19 (Malcolm Perry pass to CJ Williams for Two-Point Conversion) — NAVY win probability +26.2 pts (now 83%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 12:14: Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 61 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +23.2 pts (now 50%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 6:11: Malcolm Perry run for 70 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) SMU Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined — NAVY win probability +31.4 pts (now 86%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 9 of 10SMU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 9:15NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 49, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    60.8%−0.3
    average punt
  2. Q1 7:01NAVY 4th & 5 at SMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 60.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.9%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    60.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    59.9%−1.0
    average punt
  3. Q1 7:01SMU 4th & 4 at SMU 30, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.2%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q1 0:35NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 59.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    59.3%−0.4
    average punt
  5. Q2 11:44NAVY 4th & 8 at SMU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 61.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    61.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    58.7%−2.3
    average punt
  6. Q2 8:11SMU 4th & 2 at NAVY 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 38.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    38.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    37.8%−0.9
    72% to make
    Punt
    32.9%−5.8
    average punt
  7. Q2 6:22NAVY 4th & 25 at NAVY 3, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.2%−4.2
    5% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    52.4%
    average punt
  8. Q2 1:41NAVY 4th & 9 at SMU 38, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    39.4%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    39.4%−0.1
    38% to make
    Punt
    39.0%−0.4
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:34SMU 4th & 7 at NAVY 48, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    60.1%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 8:58NAVY 4th & 1 at SMU 1, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    32.7%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    29.4%−3.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    20.6%−12.1
    average punt
  11. Q3 8:58SMU 4th & 15 at NAVY 42, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.1%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    49.9%−1.3
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.2%
    average punt
  12. Q3 4:04NAVY 4th & 5 at SMU 7, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 48.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−0.3
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    47.4%
    91% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−12.2
    average punt
  13. Q3 4:04SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 38, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.4%−0.7
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    47.1%
    average punt
  14. Q4 12:14NAVY 4th & 4 at SMU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.5%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    57.5%−4.0
    38% to make
    Punt
    57.7%−3.8
    average punt
  15. Q4 8:33NAVY 4th & 9 at SMU 29, tied
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.9 ptsWent for it · 59.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    57.1%−1.9
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    59.0%
    58% to make
    Punt
    43.6%−15.4
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:28SMU 4th & 6 at SMU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    42.0%−4.6
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    46.6%
    average punt
  17. Q4 2:40SMU 4th & 4 at NAVY 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.6%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    12.3%−0.3
    86% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−7.9
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 3 of 4SMU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 2:36NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 6:22SMU Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    46.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 4:01SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    57.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    57.6%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 8:58NAVY Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    46.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    45.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:19NAVY Touchdown, up 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    71.5%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    71.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 12:14SMU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    39.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    39.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 6:11NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−1.8
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1FUMBLE
10 plays · 50 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.1%
James Proche run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
55.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+5
55.1%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY NAVY offside defense (PERKINS, J) 5 yards to the SMU34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+4
55.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-3
55.1%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 35Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 35
+4
55.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 39
+31
55.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 31 yds to the Navy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+1
55.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 29
+3
55.1%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Navy 25 Xavier Jones fumbled, forced by Mike Flowers, recovered by Navy Jackson PittmanSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 2MISSED FG
13 plays · 51 yds · 4:3756% → 56%
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
55.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
55.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q1 11:38
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+10
55.4%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 10 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:38
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
55.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q1 11:38
2ND & 5
OWN 45
+4
55.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 4 yds to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 9:15
3RD & 1
OWN 49
0
56.0%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 49Similar
Q1 9:15
4TH & 1
OWN 49
+22
55.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 22 yds to the SMU 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
56.7%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:17
2ND & 10
OPP 29
+2
56.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 8:17
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+3
56.4%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the SMU 24Similar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 5
OPP 24
+41
55.9%
Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0044% → 44%
Q1 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
55.9%
Tyler Page pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 24
+6
55.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 6 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 4
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q1 7:01
4TH & 4
OWN 30
0
56.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 35 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 4TD
8 plays · 65 yds · 3:2856% → 61%
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
55.7%
Tazh Maloy run for 7 yds to the Navy 42Similar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+2
56.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 1
OWN 44
+21
56.2%
CJ Williams run for 21 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
56.9%
Malcolm Perry pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:04
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+9
56.8%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 9 yds to the SMU 26Similar
Q1 6:04
3RD & 1
OPP 26
+1
56.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:04
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
56.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q1 2:36
2ND & 7
OPP 22
+22
61.1%
Chance Warren run for 22 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 6FG
16 plays · 51 yds · 5:3756% → 59%
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-12
55.9%
NAVY Penalty, personal foul (-12 Yards) to the Navy 13Similar
Q1 2:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+9
55.9%
Tazh Maloy run for 9 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 2:21
2ND & 1
OWN 22
0
56.1%
Tazh Maloy run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 2:21
3RD & 1
OWN 22
0
55.5%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 0:35
4TH & 1
OWN 22
+1
55.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+32
55.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Keoni-Kordell Makekau for 32 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+5
57.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 40
+14
57.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 14 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+3
58.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the SMU 23Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 23
+1
58.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 1 yd to the SMU 22Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 22
+3
57.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 19Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OPP 19
-5
56.5%
NAVY Penalty, false start (David Forney) to the SMU 24Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 8
OPP 24
+41
58.8%
Bijan Nichols 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
16 plays · 75 yds · 5:2242% → 54%
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
58.0%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+30
57.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 30 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 41
-10
55.8%
JONES, Xavier rush for 11 yards to the NAVY30 (BRENNAN, Kevin), PENALTY SMU holding (BECKER, Ryan) 10 yards to the SMU49, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 20
OWN 49
+14
56.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 6
OPP 37
0
55.6%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 6
OPP 37
+3
56.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ryan Becker for 3 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 11:44
4TH & 3
OPP 34
+4
57.1%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to GRANSON, Kylen, PENALTY NAVY pass interference (SPRINGER, Jacob) 4 yards to the NAVY30, 1ST DOWN SMU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+3
55.1%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q2 11:44
2ND & 7
OPP 27
+5
54.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 5 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 11:44
3RD & 2
OPP 22
0
55.7%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Navy 22Similar
Q2 8:11
4TH & 2
OPP 22
+11
58.8%
Xavier Jones run for 11 yds to the Navy 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:11
1ST & 10
OPP 11
+2
56.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Navy 9Similar
Q2 8:11
2ND & 8
OPP 9
+1
56.4%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the Navy 8Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 7
OPP 8
+8
46.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds for a TDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 8PUNT
5 plays · -15 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 6:22
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+1
48.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 19Similar
Q2 6:22
2ND & 9
OWN 19
-7
48.8%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Zach Abercrumbia and Patrick Nelson for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 12Similar
Q2 6:22
3RD & 16
OWN 12
-9
47.9%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Tyeson Neals for a loss of 9 yards to the Navy 3Similar
Q2 6:22
4TH & 25
OWN 3
0
47.0%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 42 yds · 0:2254% → 64%
Q2 4:23
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+33
46.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 33 yds to the Navy 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
36.1%
Xavier Jones run for 9 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 10DOWNS
9 plays · 37 yds · 2:2039% → 37%
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
39.2%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 25Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
39.0%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 13 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+23
40.3%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 23 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
41.5%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 4:01
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+2
42.7%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q2 4:01
3RD & 3
OPP 32
-6
41.3%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 6 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 1:41
4TH & 9
OPP 38
0
37.4%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Chance WarrenSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0065% → 64%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
35.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 8 yds to the SMU 46Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+3
34.7%
Shane Buechele run for 3 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
35.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen Granson, broken up by Chelen GarnesSimilar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+3
35.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 3 yds to the Navy 48Similar
Q2 1:34
3RD & 7
OPP 48
0
35.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q2 1:34
4TH & 7
OPP 48
0
35.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 48 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 12END OF HALF
1 play · 4 yds · 0:0035% → 35%
Q2 0:08
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
35.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 13TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:0235% → 50%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+8
35.3%
CJ Williams run for 8 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OWN 33
+4
36.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-1
36.1%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 36Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 11
OWN 36
+8
35.7%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 8 yds to the Navy 44Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 44
+3
36.5%
CJ Williams run for 3 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+8
37.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 2
OPP 45
+4
38.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the SMU 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
37.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 40
+33
37.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to CJ Williams for 33 yds to the SMU 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+5
39.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
0
39.2%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the SMU 2Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
37.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the SMU 1Similar
Q3 8:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
49.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 14PUNT
6 plays · -5 yds · 0:0057% → 52%
Q3 8:58
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
43.0%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to CJ SandersSimilar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-5
43.0%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Navy 42Similar
Q3 8:58
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
44.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 8:58
3RD & 15
OPP 42
0
45.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 8:58
4TH & 15
OPP 42
0
47.6%
Trevor Denbow punt for 42 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 15FG
9 plays · 73 yds · 4:2247% → 54%
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+20
47.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 20 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+12
50.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+10
51.6%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 10 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+2
51.8%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the SMU 36Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 8
OPP 36
+24
51.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 24 yds to the SMU 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:26
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
53.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 9Similar
Q3 8:26
2ND & 7
OPP 9
+3
53.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the SMU 6Similar
Q3 8:26
3RD & 4
OPP 6
-1
51.5%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 7Similar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 5
OPP 7
+24
53.7%
Bijan Nichols 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0051% → 49%
Q3 4:04
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
49.0%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 4:04
2ND & 6
OWN 38
0
47.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 4:04
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
48.6%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 4:04
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+1
51.5%
Trevor Denbow punt for 39 yds , Garrett Winn returns for 1 yd to the Navy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 17TD
11 plays · 76 yds · 3:4852% → 83%
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+7
51.6%
CJ Williams run for 7 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 3
OWN 31
+3
54.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-3
52.1%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Turner Coxe and Pono Davis for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 13
OWN 31
+15
51.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 15 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+15
55.7%
Nelson Smith run for 15 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:07
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+9
56.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 9 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q3 3:07
2ND & 1
OPP 30
+17
58.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 17 yds to the SMU 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-5
56.9%
NAVY Penalty, false start (Ford Higgins) to the SMU 18Similar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 15
OPP 18
+5
56.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the SMU 13Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 13
0
56.9%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Nelson SmithSimilar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 10
OPP 13
+13
83.2%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 13 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 14:19 (Malcolm Perry pass to CJ Williams for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
7 plays · 85 yds · 2:0525% → 50%
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+13
75.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+7
74.5%
Xavier Jones run for 7 yds to the SMU 35Similar
Q4 14:19
2ND & 3
OWN 35
+2
72.5%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q4 14:19
3RD & 1
OWN 37
+3
73.0%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:19
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-1
73.0%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 11
OWN 39
+61
49.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 61 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 19DOWNS
10 plays · 15 yds · 3:4162% → 57%
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
62.0%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 49Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 15
OPP 49
+9
59.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 6
OPP 40
+2
60.9%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 2 yds to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 12:14
4TH & 4
OPP 38
+8
58.5%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Chance Warren for 8 yds to the SMU 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:14
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+2
63.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 12:14
2ND & 8
OPP 28
0
63.2%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the SMU 28Similar
Q4 12:14
3RD & 8
OPP 28
-1
61.2%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 29Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & 9
OPP 29
0
56.8%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to CJ Williams, broken up by Trevor DenbowSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0050% → 47%
Q4 8:28
1ST & 10
OWN 29
-3
49.7%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 3 yards to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 8:28
2ND & 13
OWN 26
+7
51.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q4 8:28
3RD & 6
OWN 33
0
50.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q4 8:28
4TH & 6
OWN 33
0
53.2%
Trevor Denbow punt for 37 yds, fair catch by Garrett Winn at the Navy 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 21TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:5056% → 86%
Q4 7:01
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
55.9%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Jamale CarothersSimilar
Q4 7:01
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
55.0%
CJ Williams run for no gain to the Navy 30Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+70
86.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 70 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) SMU Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22DOWNS
14 plays · 63 yds · 3:3116% → 15%
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
83.9%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+12
84.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 12 yds to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+5
81.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 5 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 6:11
2ND & 5
OWN 43
+4
80.2%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q4 6:11
3RD & 1
OWN 47
+5
80.3%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+15
79.0%
Shane Buechele run for 15 yds to the Navy 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+15
76.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 15 yds to the Navy 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:48
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+3
77.4%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Navy 15Similar
Q4 3:48
2ND & 7
OPP 15
+3
77.4%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Navy 12Similar
Q4 3:48
3RD & 4
OPP 12
0
79.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 2:40
4TH & 4
OPP 12
0
84.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Cameron KinleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 23END OF GAME
11 plays · 36 yds · 1:3196% → 98%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+8
96.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 2
OWN 20
+3
96.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-2
95.9%
Malcolm Perry run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q4 1:14
2ND & 12
OWN 21
+10
97.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 1:14
3RD & 2
OWN 31
0
97.8%
Malcolm Perry run for no gain to the Navy 31Similar
Q4 1:05
4TH & 2
OWN 31
+5
97.9%
SMU Penalty, offside defense (Rodney Clemons) to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+15
97.9%
SMU Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
98.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 49Similar
Q4 1:05
2ND & 12
OWN 49
-1
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 6:11
Malcolm Perry run for 70 yds for a TD (Bijan Nichols KICK) SMU Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined
+31.4
TD · Q4 14:19
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Ryan Mitchell for 13 yds for a TD Timeout NAVY, clock 14:19 (Malcolm Perry pass to CJ Williams for Two-Point Conversion)
+26.2
TD · Q4 12:14
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 61 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
-23.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com