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HOU

Houston 24 at Tulsa 14

TLSA
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 0:30 · Patrick Carr run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 1:34: Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Damarion Williams return for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +12.3 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  2. KEY PLAY · Q3 2:40: Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 62 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST down — HOU win probability +8.6 pts (now 72%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 13:58: T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +21.0 pts (now 51%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 13:45: Zack Long kickoff for 59 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 94 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +27.2 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. KEY PLAY · Q4 8:50: Timeout TULSA, clock 08:50 — HOU win probability +6.7 pts (now 84%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 10HOU made the numbers' call on 6 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00HOU 4th & 11 at HOU 42, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 33.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    33.0%−0.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:40TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 42, tied
    Close callPunted · 66.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.5%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:02HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:30TLSA 4th & 7 at TLSA 30, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−0.2
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    68.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00HOU 4th & 3 at HOU 33, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 29.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−<0.1
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.3%
    average punt
  6. Q2 14:51TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 15, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 69.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.8%−0.4
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 12:18TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 22, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.3%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    63.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:09HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 36, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 35.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.3%−0.2
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 1:54HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 48, tied
    Close callPunted · 39.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    38.9%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q2 1:02TLSA 4th & 9 at HOU 49, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.1%−0.3
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.4%
    average punt
  11. Q3 15:00TLSA 4th & 4 at TLSA 31, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 46.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.4%−1.3
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 9:39HOU 4th & 5 at TLSA 5, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    57.7%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    57.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    48.0%−9.9
    average punt
  13. Q3 9:39TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 41, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 36.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    36.0%−1.5
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    37.4%
    average punt
  14. Q3 8:01HOU 4th & 11 at TLSA 42, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 62.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    62.7%−0.6
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    62.3%−1.0
    30% to make
    PuntTheir call
    63.3%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:58TLSA 4th & 1 at HOU 1, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 27.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    27.8%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    23.5%−4.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    13.8%−14.0
    average punt
  16. Q4 12:40HOU 4th & 4 at TLSA 47, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.0 ptsPunted · 76.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.4%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    76.3%−1.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 8:50TLSA 4th & 10 at HOU 44, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 17.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.5%−0.5
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    15.9%−1.1
    27% to make
    Punt
    17.0%
    average punt
  18. Q4 8:44HOU 4th & 5 at HOU 49, up 10
    Close callPunted · 83.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    83.3%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.2%−<0.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 6:19TLSA 4th & 3 at TLSA 45, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    13.3%−0.7
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:30HOU 4th & 4 at TLSA 20, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 94.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    93.7%−0.5
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    94.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    90.2%−4.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 6:02TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    68.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    68.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 12:23HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    34.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    34.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 1:34HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 13:58TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    43.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    42.9%−0.5
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 16 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+3
63.6%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 29
-3
63.6%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+17
63.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 17 yds to the Houst 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+3
63.6%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 46Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 46
-6
63.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 40
+2
63.6%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 42Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Dane Roy punt for 23 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 2PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 0:0064% → 63%
Q1 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+1
63.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 36Similar
Q1 10:40
2ND & 9
OWN 36
+6
63.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 6 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q1 10:40
3RD & 3
OWN 42
0
63.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to James Palmer, broken up by Payton TurnerSimilar
Q1 10:40
4TH & 3
OWN 42
0
63.3%
Thomas Bennett punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3FUMBLE
3 plays · 16 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 9:33
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-1
63.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 9:33
2ND & 11
OWN 14
+2
63.3%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Houst 16Similar
Q1 9:33
3RD & 9
OWN 16
+15
63.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 15 yds Kyle Porter fumbled, forced by Cristian Williams, recovered by Tulsa Allie Green IVSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 4TD
5 plays · 31 yds · 2:0564% → 67%
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+5
64.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q1 8:07
2ND & 5
OPP 26
+2
64.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 8:07
3RD & 3
OPP 24
+10
63.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 10 yds to the Houst 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:07
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
64.1%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Houst 14Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
67.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 6:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
66.1%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 6:02
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
66.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton, broken up by Zaven CollinsSimilar
Q1 6:02
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
66.5%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Houst 31Similar
Q1 6:02
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+3
66.4%
Dane Roy punt for 56 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0067% → 66%
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 16
+4
66.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 6
OWN 20
+5
66.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 5 yds to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 1
OWN 25
+2
66.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:30
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
66.8%
Zach Smith run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 4:30
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
66.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 4:30
3RD & 7
OWN 30
0
66.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Jordan MooreSimilar
Q1 4:30
4TH & 7
OWN 30
0
65.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 44 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 7 yds · 2:0233% → 32%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+7
66.7%
Patrick Carr run for 7 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 2:02
2ND & 3
OWN 33
+2
66.0%
Patrick Carr run for 2 yds to the Houst 35Similar
Q1 2:02
3RD & 1
OWN 35
-2
66.2%
Patrick Carr run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 3
OWN 33
0
67.6%
Dane Roy punt for 57 yds, downed at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0068% → 67%
Q2 14:51
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
67.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 5 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 14:51
2ND & 5
OWN 15
0
67.6%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 14:51
3RD & 5
OWN 15
0
67.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 14:51
4TH & 5
OWN 15
0
66.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 20 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:2335% → 41%
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+9
65.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 13:46
2ND & 1
OPP 26
+11
65.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 11 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:46
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
65.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 12:23
2ND & 10
OPP 15
+15
58.9%
Clayton Tune run for 15 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0063% → 61%
Q2 12:18
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-1
62.5%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q2 12:18
2ND & 11
OWN 19
0
62.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q2 12:18
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+3
61.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 3 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q2 12:18
4TH & 8
OWN 22
0
61.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds , Damarion Williams returns for no gain to the Houst 22 HOUSTON Penalty, roughing the kicker ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0039% → 38%
Q2 11:09
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
60.7%
Clayton Tune run for no gain to the Houst 32Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+5
61.0%
TUNE, Clayton pass complete to STEVENSON, Marq for 5 yards to the HOU37, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLS offside defense 5 yards to the HOU37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:09
2ND & 5
OWN 37
-3
60.0%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 11:09
3RD & 8
OWN 34
+2
61.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 2 yds to the Houst 36 HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 11:09
4TH & 6
OWN 36
+49
62.0%
Dane Roy punt for 49 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12INT
6 plays · 44 yds · 0:0062% → 65%
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 14
+1
62.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 9
OWN 15
+18
62.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+13
62.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 13 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+5
64.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 9:02
2ND & 5
OPP 49
+7
64.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 42
0
64.6%
Zach Smith pass intercepted Gervarrius Owens return for no gain to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13PUNT
12 plays · 25 yds · 5:0441% → 41%
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-11
59.2%
TUNE, Clayton pass complete to CARR, Patrick for 1 yard to the HOU24 (WILLIAMS, C.;BURNETT, Y.), PENALTY HOU face mask 11 yards to the HOU12, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 21
OWN 12
+8
59.4%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+14
59.6%
TUNE, Clayton pass incomplete to SINGLETON, Jere, PENALTY TLS pass interference 14 yards to the HOU34, 1ST DOWN HOU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+1
58.7%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 9
OWN 35
0
58.7%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Houst 35Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 9
OWN 35
+9
59.9%
Clayton Tune run for 9 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:58
1ST & 10
OWN 44
-2
57.4%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 42Similar
Q2 6:58
2ND & 12
OWN 42
+11
58.4%
Logan Holgorsen pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 11 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 6:58
3RD & 1
OPP 47
0
56.9%
Patrick Carr run for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 1
OPP 47
-5
57.0%
HOUSTON Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q2 1:54
4TH & 6
OWN 48
0
58.8%
Dane Roy punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14INT TD
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:1262% → 50%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
62.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the Tulsa 29Similar
Q2 1:34
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+25
50.2%
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Damarion Williams return for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15PUNT
8 plays · 26 yds · 0:3249% → 46%
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
48.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+15
49.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:34
1ST & 10
50
-6
51.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 1:02
2ND & 16
OWN 44
+7
46.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q2 1:02
3RD & 9
OPP 49
0
47.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q2 1:02
4TH & 9
OPP 49
0
46.2%
Thomas Bennett punt for 42 yds, downed at the Houst 7Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 16END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 7
-1
45.3%
Team run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 0:0046% → 45%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 6 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 31
-15
47.4%
STOKES, K. rush for loss of 1 yard to the TLS30 (STUARD, Grant;MOORE, Jordan), PENALTY TLS CH 15 yards to the TLS16, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+8
45.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 8 yds to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 11
OWN 24
+7
44.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 7 yds to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
+40
44.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 51 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 42 , Damarion Williams returns for 40 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 18FG
6 plays · 37 yds · 2:5760% → 63%
Q3 12:36
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+3
39.9%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 39Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & 7
OPP 39
+30
39.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 30 yds to the Tulsa 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:36
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+4
39.5%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 12:36
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
39.5%
Kyle Porter run for no gain to the Tulsa 5Similar
Q3 12:36
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
40.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton, broken up by Reggie Robinson IISimilar
Q3 9:39
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
36.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 16 yds · 0:0036% → 35%
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
35.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 15 yds to the Tulsa 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:39
1ST & 10
OWN 40
-7
37.3%
Zach Smith sacked by Jordan Moore and Gervarrius Owens for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q3 9:39
2ND & 17
OWN 33
0
35.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q3 9:39
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+8
34.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 8 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 9:39
4TH & 9
OWN 41
0
34.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Damarion Williams at the Houst 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 20PUNT
9 plays · 37 yds · 0:0064% → 64%
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+10
35.9%
Kyle Porter run for 10 yds to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+6
35.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 6 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 4
OWN 37
+4
34.6%
Chandler Smith run for 4 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+3
34.0%
Chandler Smith run for 3 yds to the Houst 44Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 7
OWN 44
+15
34.0%
Clayton Tune run for 15 yds to the Tulsa 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:01
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
33.9%
Chandler Smith run for no gain to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q3 8:01
2ND & 10
OPP 41
+3
34.0%
Clayton Tune run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 38Similar
Q3 8:01
3RD & 7
OPP 38
-4
34.4%
Chandler Smith run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q3 8:01
4TH & 11
OPP 42
0
36.2%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds, downed at the Tulsa 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21TD
10 plays · 98 yds · 3:4228% → 51%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+62
27.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 62 yds to the Houst 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-5
31.7%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive offside (-5 Yards) to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 15
OPP 41
+17
30.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds to the Houst 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OPP 24
0
33.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Houst 24Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & 10
OPP 24
0
33.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Grant StuardSimilar
Q3 2:40
3RD & 10
OPP 24
+23
31.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 23 yds to the Houst 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q3 2:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
33.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
29.6%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Houst 1Similar
Q4 13:58
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
50.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 23FUMBLE
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:0025% → 25%
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
0
24.5%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Tulsa 21Similar
Q4 13:40
2ND & 10
OWN 21
0
24.3%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 13:40
3RD & 10
OWN 21
+13
22.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+19
25.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 19 yds Keylon Stokes fumbled, forced by Jordan Moore, recovered by Houst Jordan Moore , return for no gain to the Houst 47Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0079% → 77%
Q4 12:40
1ST & 10
OWN 47
-1
20.9%
Terrell Brown run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 46Similar
Q4 12:40
2ND & 11
OWN 46
0
21.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Terrell Brown, broken up by Shemarr RobinsonSimilar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 11
OWN 46
+7
21.8%
Clayton Tune run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 12:40
4TH & 4
OPP 47
0
23.1%
Dane Roy punt for 37 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 25DOWNS
9 plays · 46 yds · 2:1021% → 16%
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+13
20.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
21.1%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 11
OWN 22
-6
20.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Isaiah Chambers for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulsa 16Similar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 17
OWN 16
+40
19.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 40 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:00
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 11:00
2ND & 10
OPP 44
0
24.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh Johnson, broken up by Grant StuardSimilar
Q4 11:00
3RD & 10
OPP 44
0
22.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 8:50
4TH & 10
OPP 44
0
16.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0086% → 85%
Q4 8:44
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+5
13.8%
Clayton Tune run for 5 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 8:44
2ND & 5
OWN 49
+1
13.9%
Clayton Tune run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 8:44
3RD & 4
50
-1
13.9%
Clayton Tune run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 49Similar
Q4 8:44
4TH & 5
OWN 49
0
14.9%
Dane Roy punt for 41 yds, downed at the Tulsa 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27FUMBLE
8 plays · 39 yds · 0:0011% → 14%
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 10
0
11.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 10
OWN 10
+13
11.0%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 13 yds to the Tulsa 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+15
11.4%
SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to CRAWFORD JR, S., PENALTY HOU personal foul 15 yards to the TLS38, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-8
12.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Nelson Caeser for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulsa 30 Zach Smith fumbled, recovered by Tulsa Zach Smith , return for 0 yardsSimilar
Q4 6:19
2ND & 18
OWN 30
0
11.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by Payton TurnerSimilar
Q4 6:19
3RD & 18
OWN 30
+15
10.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 15 yds to the Tulsa 45Similar
Q4 6:19
4TH & 3
OWN 45
+4
12.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 4 yds to the Tulsa 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
13.8%
Zach Smith run for no gain to the Tulsa 49 Zach Smith fumbled, forced by Isaiah Chambers, recovered by Houst Olivier Charles-PierreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 41 yds · 3:4591% → 96%
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
9.0%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 42Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+4
8.7%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+12
9.0%
Kyle Porter run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:15
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+1
8.7%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 25Similar
Q4 4:15
2ND & 9
OPP 25
+2
8.7%
Kyle Porter run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 7
OPP 23
+3
4.4%
Patrick Carr run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q4 0:30
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+12
4.0%
Patrick Carr run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 13:45
Zack Long kickoff for 59 yds , Marquez Stevenson return for 94 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-27.2
TD · Q4 13:58
T.K. Wilkerson run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+21
TD · Q2 1:34
Zach Smith pass intercepted for a TD Damarion Williams return for 25 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)
-12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com