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UCF

UCF 34 at Tulane 31

TULN
2019 · Week 13 · Nov 23, 2019 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 5:21 · Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 9 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+37.5+18.80−18.8−37.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 199Pregame prior−2.1Home team on offense−30.8Score differential−11.3Garbage-time factor−11.8Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−5.5Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−6.2
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 10:40: Darriel Mack Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +11.3 pts (now 88%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:25: Daniel Obarski kickoff for 63 yds , Stephon Huderson return for 98 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +11.7 pts (now 24%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 2:04: Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Anthony Roberson for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +13.4 pts (now 89%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 7:03: Corey Dauphine run for 7 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +10.3 pts (now 17%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 0:26: Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 7 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +17.3 pts (now 22%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 10 of 14UCF made the numbers' call on 10 of 13
  1. Q1 15:00TULN 4th & 1 at UCF 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 33.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    33.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    33.3%−0.2
    60% to make
    Punt
    33.0%−0.5
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16TULN 4th & 6 at UCF 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 35.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.7%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    35.7%
    74% to make
    Punt
    35.1%−0.6
    average punt
  3. Q1 10:16UCF 4th & 6 at TULN 26, tied
    Close callWent for it · 64.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    64.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    64.7%
    64% to make
    Punt
    64.2%−0.5
    average punt
  4. Q1 8:04UCF 4th & 8 at TULN 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 64.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.7%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    63.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    62.9%−1.0
    average punt
  5. Q1 7:59TULN 4th & 1 at UCF 38, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 36.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    36.0%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    35.6%−0.4
    38% to make
    Punt
    35.6%−0.4
    average punt
  6. Q1 3:58TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 27, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 32.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    32.8%−0.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    33.0%
    average punt
  7. Q1 2:26UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 44, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.5%−0.4
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.9%
    average punt
  8. Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 8 at TULN 28, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%−0.3
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.3%
    average punt
  9. Q2 13:11UCF 4th & 8 at UCF 8, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 66.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    66.0%−0.6
    31% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    66.6%
    average punt
  10. Q2 10:44TULN 4th & 1 at UCF 16, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.6% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    31.5%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    30.3%−1.2
    81% to make
    Punt
    27.0%−4.5
    average punt
  11. Q2 9:53UCF 4th & 13 at UCF 22, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 60.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    58.9%−1.9
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    60.8%
    average punt
  12. Q2 9:18TULN 4th & 6 at UCF 47, down 3
    Close callPunted · 39.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.4%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    39.4%−<0.1
    average punt
  13. Q2 6:19TULN 4th & 11 at UCF 34, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 29.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.9%−0.2
    27% to convert
    Field goal
    29.1%
    47% to make
    Punt
    28.7%−0.4
    average punt
  14. Q2 3:26UCF 4th & 10 at TULN 32, up 10
    Close callWent for it · 70.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    70.0%−0.2
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    70.2%
    51% to make
    Punt
    69.5%−0.7
    average punt
  15. Q3 15:00UCF 4th & 5 at TULN 31, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    71.9%
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    71.7%−0.2
    54% to make
    Punt
    71.2%−0.7
    average punt
  16. Q3 10:25UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.7%−0.7
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.4%
    average punt
  17. Q3 4:50TULN 4th & 5 at UCF 12, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 23.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    22.7%−0.3
    38% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    23.0%
    86% to make
    Punt
    14.8%−8.2
    average punt
  18. Q3 2:04UCF 4th & 2 at TULN 2, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 75.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    75.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    73.3%−1.8
    94% to make
    Punt
    65.4%−9.6
    average punt
  19. Q3 2:04TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 22, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 13.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    12.6%−1.8
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    14.4%
    average punt
  20. Q4 15:00UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 49, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.0%−1.1
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  21. Q4 14:05TULN 4th & 14 at TULN 11, down 14
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 12.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    13.4%
    average punt
  22. Q4 10:43UCF 4th & 7 at TULN 9, up 14
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 91.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−0.4
    30% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    91.2%
    89% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−6.1
    average punt
  23. Q4 10:43TULN 4th & 6 at UCF 43, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    6.2%
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    5.1%−1.2
    28% to make
    Punt
    5.8%−0.4
    average punt
  24. Q4 5:21UCF 4th & 4 at TULN 23, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.2%
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%−0.4
    70% to make
    Punt
    82.7%−5.5
    average punt
  25. Q4 5:21UCF 4th & 16 at TULN 20, up 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.0 ptsWent for it · 88.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    85.7%−2.0
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    87.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    82.1%−5.7
    average punt
  26. Q4 1:49TULN 4th & 4 at UCF 20, down 10
    Close callWent for it · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−0.7
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    8.3%
    75% to make
    Punt
    4.7%−3.6
    average punt
  27. Q4 0:26TULN 4th & 7 at UCF 7, down 10
    Numbers favored field goal by 1.4 ptsWent for it · 6.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    7.6%−1.4
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    9.0%
    91% to make
    Punt
    5.2%−3.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 3:58UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    65.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    65.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 9:53TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    38.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    38.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 6:19UCF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    70.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    70.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:40UCF Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 2:04UCF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    83.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 7:03TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    11.7%−0.3
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 0:26TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.3%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.4%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TULNDrive 1MISSED FG
14 plays · 54 yds · 4:4428% → 30%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
27.7%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+18
27.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 18 yds to the Tulan 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
27.7%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the Tulan 49Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 49
0
27.7%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 49
+14
27.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 14 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
27.7%
Darius Bradwell run for no gain to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 37
+5
27.7%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the UCF 32Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OPP 32
+4
27.7%
Stephon Huderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 1
OPP 28
+3
27.7%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
0
27.7%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OPP 25
+3
27.7%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 22
+1
27.7%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 21
+38
30.2%
Merek Glover 38 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2FG
12 plays · 62 yds · 2:1270% → 70%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+19
29.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for 19 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 40
0
29.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Adrian Killins Jr. for no gain to the UCF 40Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OWN 40
+9
29.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 1
OWN 49
+21
29.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the TULANE 45 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (15 Yards) to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 30
0
29.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete, broken up by Mike HintonSimilar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 10
OPP 30
+4
29.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulan 26Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 6
OPP 26
0
29.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 6
OPP 26
+7
29.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
29.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Tulan 17Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 8
OPP 17
0
29.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 8
OPP 17
0
29.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 8:04
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+35
30.3%
Dylan Barnas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 3DOWNS
7 plays · 39 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+14
30.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 14 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+16
30.5%
Amare Jones run for 16 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-1
31.1%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 48Similar
Q1 7:59
2ND & 11
OPP 48
0
31.0%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:59
3RD & 11
OPP 48
+10
30.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 10 yds to the UCF 38Similar
Q1 7:59
4TH & 1
OPP 38
0
30.7%
Amare Jones run for no gain to the UCF 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4TD
10 plays · 62 yds · 1:4669% → 72%
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OWN 38
0
30.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OWN 38
+7
30.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 3
OWN 45
+11
30.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+9
30.5%
Otis Anderson run for 9 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 1
OPP 35
+1
30.2%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:44
1ST & 10
OPP 34
0
30.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 10
OPP 34
-5
30.3%
UCF Penalty, illegal procedure (Jordan Johnson) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q1 5:44
2ND & 15
OPP 39
+9
30.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 9 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q1 5:44
3RD & 6
OPP 30
+7
30.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 7 yds to the Tulan 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+23
27.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 23 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0029% → 28%
Q1 3:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
28.8%
[Shotgun], DAUPHINE, C. rush over right end for 2 yards to the TLN27 (GRANT, Richie;ROBINSON, A.), PENALTY TLN holding (HAYNESWORTH, S.) 10 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 3:58
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+10
28.8%
Justin McMillan run for 10 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 3:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+2
28.8%
Stephon Huderson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q1 3:58
3RD & 8
OWN 27
0
28.5%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:58
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
28.3%
Ryan Wright punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
28.4%
Otis Anderson run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 15
OWN 25
+14
28.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 14 yds to the UCF 39Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 1
OWN 39
+4
28.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:26
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
27.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 2:26
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+1
28.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the UCF 44Similar
Q1 2:26
3RD & 9
OWN 44
0
28.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 2:26
4TH & 9
OWN 44
+46
28.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the TULANE 20 TULANE Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · 18 yds · 0:5227% → 27%
Q1 0:52
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+5
27.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q1 0:52
2ND & 5
OWN 15
-10
27.5%
Justin McMillan sacked by Tre'Mon Morris-Brash for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 5Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 15
OWN 5
+21
26.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 21 yds to the Tulan 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 26
0
27.7%
Amare Jones run for no gain to the Tulan 26Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 26
0
27.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darius Bradwell, broken up by Nate EvansSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OWN 26
+2
27.0%
Amare Jones run for 2 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 28
0
26.8%
Ryan Wright punt for 66 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0071% → 71%
Q2 13:11
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+6
28.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 6 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & 4
OWN 12
-4
28.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 8Similar
Q2 13:11
3RD & 8
OWN 8
0
29.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:11
4TH & 8
OWN 8
+11
29.3%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 42 , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for 11 yds to the UCF 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 9TD
9 plays · 42 yds · 2:1028% → 38%
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
28.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 7 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+10
29.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 10 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:03
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
29.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 12:03
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+5
29.1%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 10:44
3RD & 1
OPP 16
0
29.0%
Stephon Huderson run for no gain to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 10:44
4TH & 1
OPP 16
+2
28.4%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:44
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
29.8%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+14
38.3%
Corey Dauphine run for 14 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0066% → 64%
Q2 9:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
34.4%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 9:53
2ND & 13
OWN 22
0
34.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 9:53
3RD & 13
OWN 22
0
35.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jake Hescock, broken up by Chase KuerschenSimilar
Q2 9:53
4TH & 13
OWN 22
0
35.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 29 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:0037% → 36%
Q2 9:18
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
37.3%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 9:18
2ND & 9
50
+1
37.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the UCF 49Similar
Q2 9:18
3RD & 8
OPP 49
+2
36.7%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q2 9:18
4TH & 6
OPP 47
0
36.1%
Ryan Wright punt for 47 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12TD
4 plays · 80 yds · 1:2666% → 74%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
34.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 5 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+17
33.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 17 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+14
32.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 14 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+44
25.7%
Otis Anderson run for 44 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13DOWNS
9 plays · 41 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
26.8%
Justin McMillan run for 20 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
27.8%
Stephon Huderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 43Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+7
27.5%
Stephon Huderson run for 7 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 5
50
+17
27.9%
Justin McMillan run for 17 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
29.6%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q2 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 31
0
29.6%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Tyrick JamesSimilar
Q2 6:19
3RD & 8
OPP 31
-3
28.4%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 6:19
4TH & 11
OPP 34
0
26.8%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14DOWNS
13 plays · 34 yds · 0:0074% → 73%
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 34
0
26.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 34
+6
26.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 6 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 4
OWN 40
+6
25.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 6 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
25.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Adrian Killins Jr.Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+11
25.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 11 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-5
25.5%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 48Similar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 15
OPP 48
+6
25.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 6 yds to the Tulan 42Similar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 9
OPP 42
+10
25.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 10 yds to the Tulan 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:26
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
25.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q2 3:26
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+5
25.4%
Greg McCrae run for 5 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 3:26
3RD & 5
OPP 27
0
25.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 5
OPP 27
-5
26.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 32Similar
Q2 3:26
4TH & 10
OPP 32
0
26.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15END OF HALF
4 plays · -6 yds · 0:1926% → 24%
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+10
25.8%
Justin McMillan run for 10 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:48
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-6
26.5%
Justin McMillan sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 36Similar
Q2 0:29
2ND & 16
OWN 36
-10
24.0%
Justin McMillan sacked by Team for a loss of 10 yards to the Tulan 26 TULANE Penalty, intentional grounding (Justin McMillan) to the Tulan 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 4:2075% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
24.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+6
25.0%
Greg McCrae run for 6 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+10
24.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the UCF 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+9
23.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 9 yds to the Tulan 45Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 45
-1
23.6%
Greg McCrae run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 46Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 2
OPP 46
+10
24.2%
Dillon Gabriel run for 10 yds to the Tulan 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-4
23.7%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 40Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 14
OPP 40
0
24.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 14
OPP 40
+9
24.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 9 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 5
OPP 31
+30
25.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 30 yds to the Tulan 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.5%
[No Huddle, Shotgun], GABRIEL, Dillon rush quarterback draw for loss of 1 yard to the TLN2 (LAWAL, M.), PENALTY TLN unsportsmanlike conduct (GRAHAM, L.) 0 yards to the TLN1, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.5%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for no gain to the Tulan 1Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
12.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:0076% → 75%
Q3 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
23.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 24 Dillon Gabriel fumbled,Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & 11
OWN 24
+2
24.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 2 yds to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 10:25
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+8
24.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 8 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 1
OWN 34
-5
24.5%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 10:25
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
25.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 27 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19FG
9 plays · 44 yds · 3:4324% → 30%
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
24.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 4 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+9
24.9%
Justin McMillan run for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
25.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 3 yds to the UCF 40Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 7
OPP 40
+10
25.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 10 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+13
26.6%
Corey Dauphine run for 13 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:33
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-1
26.6%
Corey Dauphine run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 18Similar
Q3 8:33
2ND & 11
OPP 18
+3
26.5%
Amare Jones run for 3 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 8:33
3RD & 8
OPP 15
+3
25.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q3 4:50
4TH & 5
OPP 12
+29
29.7%
Merek Glover 29 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4675% → 89%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+58
25.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 58 yds to the Tulan 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+9
22.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 9 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 1
OPP 8
+2
22.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the Tulan 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
22.4%
Dillon Gabriel run for 1 yd to the Tulan 5Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
22.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulan 2Similar
Q3 4:50
3RD & GOAL
OPP 2
0
23.1%
Greg McCrae run for no gain to the Tulan 2Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
10.6%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Anthony Roberson for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q3 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.9%
Corey Dauphine run for 2 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q3 2:04
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+4
13.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q3 2:04
3RD & 4
OWN 31
-9
13.2%
Justin McMillan sacked by Eric Mitchell for a loss of 9 yards to the Tulan 22Similar
Q3 2:04
4TH & 13
OWN 22
+36
12.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 64 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the 50 yard line , Otis Anderson returns for 36 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:1891% → 91%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
50
0
8.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
50
+4
8.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 4 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 46
0
8.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 6
OPP 46
-5
9.3%
UCF Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 11
OWN 49
0
9.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · -4 yds · 0:0012% → 12%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 15
-8
12.0%
McMILLAN, J. slant pass incomplete to BRADWELL, D., PENALTY TLN holding (McLEOD, K.) 8 yards to the TLN7, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
1ST & 18
OWN 7
0
11.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jaetavian TolesSimilar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 18
OWN 7
-3
11.6%
[Shotgun], BRADWELL, D. rush over right guard for 16 yards to the TLN23 (MITCHELL, Eric), PENALTY TLN holding (McLEOD, K.) 3 yards to the TLN4, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:05
2ND & 21
OWN 4
+7
11.6%
Amare Jones run for 7 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q4 14:05
3RD & 14
OWN 11
0
11.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Corey DauphineSimilar
Q4 14:05
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
11.8%
Ryan Wright punt for 43 yds, downed at the UCF 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24FG
8 plays · 45 yds · 2:0593% → 95%
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
6.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Greg McCraeSimilar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 10
OWN 46
-5
6.6%
UCF Penalty, false start (Jake Brown) to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 15
OWN 41
+7
6.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 8
OWN 48
+40
6.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 40 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 12:48
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+3
6.2%
Greg McCrae run for 3 yds to the Tulan 9Similar
Q4 12:48
2ND & 7
OPP 9
0
6.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 12:48
3RD & 7
OPP 9
0
6.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Jacob HarrisSimilar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 7
OPP 9
+26
4.6%
Dylan Barnas 26 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 25TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 3:406% → 17%
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+17
5.5%
Justin McMillan run for 17 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+9
5.9%
Corey Dauphine run for 9 yds to the UCF 49Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 1
OPP 49
-4
6.5%
Amare Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 47Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 5
OWN 47
+6
6.0%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darius Bradwell for 6 yds to the UCF 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
6.2%
Darius Bradwell run for 1 yd to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 10:43
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+2
6.2%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 10:43
3RD & 7
OPP 44
+1
6.1%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd to the UCF 43Similar
Q4 10:43
4TH & 6
OPP 43
+20
6.0%
Justin McMillan run for 20 yds to the UCF 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:43
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+16
7.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 16 yds to the UCF 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
17.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 7 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 26DOWNS
15 plays · 20 yds · 1:4290% → 91%
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
10.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 9 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q4 7:03
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+7
10.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 7 yds to the Tulan 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+1
10.4%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 1 yd to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 5:33
2ND & 9
OPP 28
+1
8.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 27Similar
Q4 5:28
3RD & 8
OPP 27
+4
8.2%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 4
OPP 23
+9
8.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 9 yds to the Tulan 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-1
7.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 15 Bentavious Thompson fumbled, recovered by UCF Bentavious ThompsonSimilar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 11
OPP 15
-10
7.7%
[Shotgun], MACK, Darriel rush over left guard for 7 yards to the TLN8 (KUERSCHEN, C.), PENALTY UCF holding (SCHNEIDER, Cole) 10 yards to the TLN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 5:21
2ND & 21
OPP 25
-3
7.7%
Bentavious Thompson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 5:21
3RD & 24
OPP 28
+8
8.2%
Greg McCrae run for 8 yds to the Tulan 20Similar
Q4 5:21
4TH & 16
OPP 20
-5
9.2%
Alex Harris run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 25 Alex Harris fumbled, recovered by UCF Alex HarrisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 27TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 1:233% → 22%
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
3.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 49 yds to the UCF 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
0
5.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 1:49
2ND & 10
OPP 26
+6
5.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 6 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 1:49
3RD & 4
OPP 20
0
4.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Tyrick James, broken up by Nate EvansSimilar
Q4 1:49
4TH & 4
OPP 20
+10
4.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 10 yds to the UCF 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:49
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+3
5.5%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the UCF 7Similar
Q4 1:49
2ND & GOAL
OPP 7
0
5.5%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 1:49
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
0
4.8%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:26
4TH & GOAL
OPP 7
+7
22.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 7 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28Uncategorized
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0095% → 95%
Q4 0:26
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-5
5.3%
Team run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 0:26
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 7 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+17.3
TD · Q3 2:04
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Anthony Roberson for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)
-13.4
TD · Q3 10:25
Daniel Obarski kickoff for 63 yds , Stephon Huderson return for 98 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+11.7
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com