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Win probability · TEM
modelTEM aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playTEM scoreTULN score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 0:45 · Adam Barry punt for 32 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for no gain to the Tulan 43 Jacob Robertson Jr. fumbled, recovered by Tulan Jacob Robertson Jr.
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 2:20: Cameron Carroll run for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +9.5 pts (now 50%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- FG · Q3 6:24: Will Mobley 20 yd FG GOOD — TEM win probability +10.0 pts (now 71%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:40: Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT MISSED) — TEM win probability +15.5 pts (now 90%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q4 13:57: Darius Bradwell run for 4 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +14.0 pts (now 28%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
- TD · Q4 6:48: Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +11.2 pts (now 19%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
TEM made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 9 of 11
- Q1 15:00TEM 4th & 5 at TEM 30, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 34.7% before the snapGo for it34.7%−<0.141% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call34.8%average punt
- Q1 11:05TEM 4th & 18 at TULN 18, tiedAgrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 36.3% before the snapGo for it36.1%−0.211% to convertField goalTheir call36.3%79% to makePunt35.8%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:00TULN 4th & 27 at TEM 30, down 3Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 59.6% before the snapGo for it58.7%−0.97% to convertField goalTheir call59.6%56% to makePunt59.1%−0.5average punt
- Q1 5:00TEM 4th & 12 at TULN 35, up 3Close callPunted · 39.3% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.224% to convertField goal39.5%45% to makePuntTheir call39.2%−0.3average punt
- Q1 3:08TULN 4th & 9 at TEM 47, down 3Agrees with the numbersPunted · 59.0% before the snapGo for it59.1%−0.332% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call59.3%average punt
- Q2 11:23TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 34, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.2% before the snapGo for it49.0%−0.541% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call49.5%average punt
- Q2 8:13TEM 4th & 7 at TULN 10, up 10Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.9% before the snapGo for it53.1%−0.331% to convertField goalTheir call53.4%88% to makePunt47.3%−6.1average punt
- Q2 8:13TULN 4th & 5 at TULN 30, down 13Agrees with the numbersPunted · 39.6% before the snapGo for it39.3%−0.341% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call39.6%average punt
- Q2 0:45TEM 4th & 8 at TEM 26, up 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 54.9% before the snapGo for it52.1%−2.633% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call54.7%average punt
- Q3 15:00TULN 4th & 18 at TEM 43, down 6Agrees with the numbersPunted · 43.8% before the snapGo for it42.9%−2.513% to convertField goal43.8%−1.628% to makePuntTheir call45.3%average punt
- Q3 6:24TEM 4th & 3 at TULN 3, up 6Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 64.5% before the snapGo for it65.5%44% to convertField goalTheir call63.5%−2.193% to makePunt51.9%−13.6average punt
- Q4 9:56TULN 4th & 2 at TEM 44, down 15Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.9%57% to convertField goal5.4%−1.627% to makePunt5.9%−1.0average punt
- Q4 9:56TULN 4th & 10 at TEM 25, down 15Close callWent for it · 7.4% before the snapGo for itTheir call6.8%−0.728% to convertField goal7.5%66% to makePunt3.9%−3.6average punt
- Q4 6:48TEM 4th & 6 at TEM 27, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 87.7% before the snapGo for it87.1%−0.639% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call87.8%average punt
- Q4 5:23TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 42, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 12.9% before the snapGo for itTheir call12.5%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt8.7%−3.8average punt
- Q4 5:23TULN 4th & 14 at TEM 39, down 8Numbers favored field goal by 1.3 ptsWent for it · 11.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call8.9%−1.319% to convertField goal10.2%36% to makePunt8.5%−1.7average punt
- Q4 1:46TEM 4th & 7 at TEM 42, up 8Agrees with the numbersPunted · 95.3% before the snapGo for it95.1%−0.137% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call95.2%average punt
- Q4 1:07TULN 4th & 16 at TULN 38, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.3% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.7%15% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.4%−0.3average punt
- Q4 1:07TULN 4th & 16 at TULN 49, down 8Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 7.8% before the snapGo for itTheir call5.2%16% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt4.5%−0.7average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TEM made the numbers' call on 3 of 3TULN made the numbers' call on 1 of 3
- Q2 11:23TEM Touchdown, up 9 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call52.2%97% to makeGo for two52.1%−0.145% to convert
- Q2 2:20TULN Touchdown, down 7 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call44.1%97% to makeGo for two44.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:40TEM Touchdown, up 15 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · missedKickTheir call89.4%97% to makeGo for two89.3%−0.145% to convert
- Q4 13:57TULN Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call21.9%−<0.197% to makeGo for two21.9%45% to convert
- Q4 9:56TEM Touchdown, up 14 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call92.4%97% to makeGo for two91.9%−0.545% to convert
- Q4 6:48TULN Touchdown, down 9 before the tryClose callKicked · madeKickTheir call11.4%−0.497% to makeGo for two11.8%45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartTEMDrive 1PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0032% → 32%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
31.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 1 yd to the Temp 26Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
31.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 4 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
31.6%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Isaiah Wright, broken up by Jaylon MonroeSimilar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
31.6%
Adam Barry punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 38Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FUMBLE3 plays · -19 yds · 0:0068% → 68%
Q1 13:50
2ND & 8
OWN 40
-10
32.0%
McMILLAN, J. rush for 34 yards to the TEM26, out-of-bounds, PENALTY TLN holding (MONTANO, C.) 10 yards to the TLN30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:50
2ND & 18
OWN 30
-8
32.1%
Justin McMillan sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 19 Justin McMillan fumbled, recovered by Temp Quincy Roche , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 3FG8 plays · 1 yds · 1:5133% → 34%
Q1 12:56
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
32.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 4 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q1 12:56
2ND & 6
OPP 15
+10
32.8%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to MACK,Branden, PENALTY TLN pass interference (KEYES, T.) 10 yards to the TLN5, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:51
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-16
33.4%
RUSSO,Anthony pass complete to BLUE,Jadan for 4 yards to the TLN0, clock 11:51, PENALTY TEM pass interference (MACK,Branden) 16 yards to the TLN20, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 20
+2
33.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 2 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4MISSED FG15 plays · 28 yds · 6:0567% → 62%
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OWN 49
+15
33.5%
Cameron Carroll run for no gain to the Temp 49 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Shaun Bradley) to the Temp 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 3
OPP 17
+4
33.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 4 yds to the Temp 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:05
3RD & 25
OPP 28
-2
33.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Cameron Carroll for a loss of 2 yards to the Temp 30Similar
Q1 5:00
4TH & 27
OPP 30
+47
37.8%
Merek Glover 47 yd FG BLOCKED blocked by Dana Levine Team return for no gain to the Temp 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 5PUNT7 plays · 33 yds · 0:0037% → 37%
Q1 5:00
1ST & 15
OWN 48
+19
37.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 19 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 33
-2
38.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 5:00
3RD & 12
OPP 35
0
37.7%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Branden Mack, broken up by Thakarius KeyesSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT6 plays · 42 yds · 0:0061% → 61%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 7TD13 plays · 80 yds · 4:5839% → 51%
Q2 15:00
3RD & 9
OWN 21
+10
39.3%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Branden Mack for 10 yds to the Temp 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 31
+32
40.1%
Todd Centeio pass complete to David Martin-Robinson for 32 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-15
41.5%
CENTEIO,Todd rush for 4 yards to the TLN33 (JOHNSON, P.), PENALTY TEM illegal block (KLEIN,Adam) 15 yards to the TEM48, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 45
+30
40.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Jadan Blue for 30 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+6
41.3%
CENTEIO,Todd pass incomplete to MACK,Branden (KEYES, T.), PENALTY TLN pass interference (KEYES, T.) 6 yards to the TLN9, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 11:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
50.7%
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 4 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0051% → 50%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 9FG6 plays · 62 yds · 1:1251% → 61%
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+44
51.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 44 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+15
53.1%
RUSSO,Anthony pass incomplete to BLUE,Jadan, PENALTY TLN pass interference (MONROE, J.) 15 yards to the TLN13, 1ST DOWN TEM, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 9:25
1ST & 10
OPP 13
+3
53.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 3 yds to the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10PUNT5 plays · 5 yds · 0:0041% → 41%
Q2 8:13
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
59.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 11INT5 plays · 11 yds · 0:0063% → 63%
TULNDrive 12TD8 plays · 55 yds · 3:0838% → 50%
TEMDrive 13PUNT6 plays · 2 yds · 1:3556% → 55%
Q2 2:20
3RD & 4
OWN 30
-3
54.8%
Re'Mahn Davis run for a loss of 3 yards to the Temp 26 Re'Mahn Davis fumbled, recovered by Temp Todd CenteioSimilar
Q2 0:45
4TH & 8
OWN 26
0
54.8%
Adam Barry punt for 32 yds , Jacob Robertson Jr. returns for no gain to the Tulan 43 Jacob Robertson Jr. fumbled, recovered by Tulan Jacob Robertson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14INT5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0546% → 47%
TEMDrive 15END OF HALF1 play · -2 yds · 0:0058% → 58%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT10 plays · 32 yds · 0:0047% → 46%
TEMDrive 17FG11 plays · 73 yds · 4:3359% → 71%
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+6
58.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 6 yds to the Temp 30Similar
Q3 10:57
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+23
60.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 23 yds to the Tulan 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
62.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 11 yds to the Tulan 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:57
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
62.3%
Anthony Russo pass incomplete to Kenny Yeboah, broken up by Patrick JohnsonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18FUMBLE5 plays · 20 yds · 0:0030% → 31%
Q3 6:24
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+11
69.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 11 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:24
2ND & 12
OWN 41
+4
69.5%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulan 47 Corey Dauphine fumbled, forced by Chapelle Russell, recovered by Temp Christian BraswellSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19TD7 plays · 47 yds · 3:4173% → 90%
Q3 5:21
3RD & 5
OPP 42
+7
73.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jager Gardner for 7 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
3RD & 3
OPP 28
+3
73.6%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 3 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:21
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+12
74.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 12 yds to the Tulan 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:40
2ND & 5
OPP 8
+8
90.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT MISSED)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD9 plays · 75 yds · 2:4313% → 28%
TEMDrive 21TD11 plays · 75 yds · 4:0181% → 95%
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
81.3%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 12 yds to the Temp 37 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, SUB ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
3RD & 6
OWN 41
+14
82.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 14 yds to the Tulan 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:57
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+8
83.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 8 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
Q4 11:54
3RD & 5
OPP 40
+19
86.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 19 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 5
OPP 16
+16
95.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 16 yds for a TD (Will Mobley KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22TD13 plays · 52 yds · 3:087% → 19%
Q4 9:56
4TH & 2
OPP 44
+4
93.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 4 yds to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+15
93.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, personal foul (Ifeanyi Maijeh) to the Temp 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:56
2ND & 10
OPP 25
0
92.8%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskey, broken up by Christian BraswellSimilar
Q4 9:56
4TH & 10
OPP 25
+23
93.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 23 yds to the Temp 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 23PUNT5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 24DOWNS9 plays · 28 yds · 0:0013% → 11%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 25PUNT5 plays · 3 yds · 0:5296% → 97%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 26DOWNS10 plays · 20 yds · 0:276% → 5%
Q4 1:34
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+15
93.6%
McMILLAN, J. pass incomplete to MCCLESKEY, J., PENALTY TEM pass interference (BRASWELL,C.) 15 yards to the TLN44, 1ST DOWN TLN, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 10
OWN 44
-6
93.4%
Justin McMillan sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 38Similar
Q4 1:07
4TH & 16
OWN 38
+17
95.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jha'Quan Jackson for 17 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:07
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-6
93.5%
Justin McMillan sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 27END OF GAME1 play · -2 yds · 0:0098% → 98%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:40
Anthony Russo pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 8 yds for a TD (Will Mobley PAT MISSED)
+15.5
TD · Q4 13:57
Darius Bradwell run for 4 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
-14
TD · Q4 6:48
Cameron Carroll run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
-11.2