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CIN

Cincinnati 20 at South Florida 17

USF
2019 · Week 12 · Nov 16, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 10:25 · James Smith punt for 36 yds
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+35.0+17.50−17.5−35.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 21Pregame prior−29.2Home team on offense+0.9Score differential+0.2Garbage-time factor−0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.2Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. FG · Q2 9:24: Spencer Shrader 28 yd FG GOOD — USF win probability +6.6 pts (now 41%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 10:25: Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +12.7 pts (now 61%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q3 10:25: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +25.3 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 10:25: Michael Warren II run for 2 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +20.4 pts (now 64%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Sam Crosa 37 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +36.6 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 8 of 9CIN made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 15:00CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 79.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.0%−0.2
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.1%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:25CIN 4th & 19 at CIN 1, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 75.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    75.1%−0.3
    9% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    75.4%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:45USF 4th & 18 at CIN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.3
    13% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.4%
    49% to make
    Punt
    27.2%−0.2
    average punt
  4. Q1 6:45CIN 4th & 4 at CIN 39, down 7
    Close callPunted · 72.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    72.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.3%−<0.1
    average punt
  5. Q1 5:24USF 4th & 4 at USF 18, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 28.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.3%−<0.1
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    28.4%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00CIN 4th & 7 at USF 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 66.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    67.0%
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    66.6%−0.4
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    66.8%−0.2
    average punt
  7. Q2 9:24USF 4th & 7 at CIN 11, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 39.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    39.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    39.4%
    87% to make
    Punt
    35.2%−4.3
    average punt
  8. Q2 9:24CIN 4th & 14 at CIN 11, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 56.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    55.3%−2.3
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    57.5%
    average punt
  9. Q2 3:12USF 4th & 11 at CIN 36, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 49.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.3
    27% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    49.0%
    42% to make
    Punt
    47.9%−1.1
    average punt
  10. Q2 3:12CIN 4th & 13 at CIN 33, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.8%−2.1
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    48.8%
    average punt
  11. Q2 2:11USF 4th & 2 at USF 49, up 10
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.9 ptsPunted · 51.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.8%−1.9
    average punt
  12. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 8 at USF 15, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.3%−1.9
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    54.2%
    average punt
  13. Q3 3:47CIN 4th & 9 at USF 24, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 30.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.6%−1.4
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    29.9%
    68% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−10.4
    average punt
  14. Q3 3:47USF 4th & 8 at USF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    63.6%−2.2
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.8%
    average punt
  15. Q4 13:04CIN 4th & 11 at CIN 48, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 53.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.9%−2.6
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    55.4%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:45USF 4th & 6 at USF 31, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 48.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    47.1%−3.8
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    50.9%
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:58CIN 4th & 8 at USF 44, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.5%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    47.7%−4.0
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    51.7%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:07USF 4th & 5 at CIN 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 58.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    52.5%−0.9
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.4%
    83% to make
    Punt
    23.2%−30.1
    average punt
  19. Q4 0:00CIN 4th & 1 at USF 20, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 54.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.5%−12.2
    71% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    62.8%
    75% to make
    Punt
    33.8%−29.0
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 2 of 2CIN made the numbers' call on 1 of 2
  1. Q1 10:25USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q3 10:25CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    51.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    51.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q3 10:25USF Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    62.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    61.8%−0.2
    45% to convert
  4. Q4 10:25CIN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    47.4%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    47.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
CINDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 0:0081% → 81%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-5
19.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 19Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 19
+6
19.3%
Michael Warren II run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 25
+11
19.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 11 yds to the Cincy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+4
19.3%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 40
0
19.3%
Michael Warren II run for no gain to the Cincy 40Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 6
OWN 40
-7
19.3%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Nick Roberts for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
19.3%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, downed at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 2TD
6 plays · 71 yds · 1:4721% → 23%
Q1 12:12
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
20.7%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 12:12
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+3
20.7%
Trevon Sands run for 3 yds to the SFla 35Similar
Q1 12:12
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+6
20.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 6 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:52
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+55
21.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 55 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
23.4%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 3PUNT
7 plays · -9 yds · 0:0077% → 77%
Q1 10:25
1ST & 10
OWN 10
-5
22.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 15
OWN 5
-2
22.7%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-2 Yards) to the Cincy 3Similar
Q1 10:25
1ST & 17
OWN 3
-1
22.7%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 2Similar
Q1 10:25
2ND & 18
OWN 2
0
22.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete, broken up by Dwayne BoylesSimilar
Q1 10:25
3RD & 18
OWN 2
-1
22.9%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 10:25
4TH & 19
OWN 1
0
23.0%
James Smith punt for 36 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4MISSED FG
7 plays · 4 yds · 2:0325% → 26%
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
24.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 8:48
2ND & 6
OPP 33
+8
25.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:48
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+3
25.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 7
OPP 22
-15
26.2%
McCLOUD, Jordan pass complete to MILLER, Bryce for 22 yards to the CIN0, clock 07:28, PENALTY USF pass interference (ST. FELIX, R) 15 yards to the CIN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 7:28
2ND & 22
OPP 37
+4
25.8%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q1 7:28
3RD & 18
OPP 33
0
25.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 18
OPP 33
+50
26.0%
Spencer Shrader 50 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 5PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0074% → 74%
Q1 6:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
25.8%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 28Similar
Q1 6:45
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+7
25.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 6:45
2ND & 8
OWN 35
0
25.8%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 8
OWN 35
+4
26.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 4 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q1 6:45
4TH & 4
OWN 39
+49
26.0%
James Smith punt for 39 yds SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Offensive holding (10 Yards) to the SFla 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:0027% → 27%
Q1 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 12
-2
27.4%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 10Similar
Q1 5:24
2ND & 12
OWN 10
+2
27.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the SFla 12Similar
Q1 5:24
3RD & 10
OWN 12
+6
27.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 6 yds to the SFla 18Similar
Q1 5:24
4TH & 4
OWN 18
+7
26.9%
Trent Schneider punt for 60 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 7 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 30 yds · 3:2071% → 68%
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+7
28.9%
Michael Warren II run for 7 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 3
OWN 36
+3
28.3%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
28.5%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 5
OWN 44
+4
28.1%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q1 3:20
3RD & 1
OWN 48
+8
28.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 8 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:20
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+3
28.0%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q1 3:20
2ND & 7
OPP 41
0
28.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Jayshon Jackson for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 41
0
31.2%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 7
OPP 41
0
32.2%
James Smith punt for 37 yds, downed at the SFla 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8FG
13 plays · 85 yds · 5:2533% → 41%
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+3
32.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 3 yds to the SFla 7Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 7
OWN 7
+6
32.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 1
OWN 13
+8
32.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 8 yds to the SFla 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+12
32.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 12 yds to the SFla 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+6
33.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 39Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 4
OWN 39
-2
33.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 6
OWN 37
+37
33.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 37 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+7
34.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 3
OPP 19
+5
34.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:49
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
34.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q2 14:49
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+1
34.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the Cincy 13Similar
Q2 14:49
3RD & 9
OPP 13
+2
33.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 2 yds to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 7
OPP 11
+28
40.5%
Spencer Shrader 28 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 9PUNT
5 plays · -4 yds · 0:0059% → 58%
Q2 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+5
41.3%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 9:24
2ND & 5
OWN 20
+2
41.1%
Desmond Ridder run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q2 9:24
3RD & 3
OWN 22
-11
41.6%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Antonio Grier for a loss of 11 yards to the Cincy 11Similar
Q2 9:24
4TH & 14
OWN 11
0
42.4%
James Smith punt for 47 yds , KJ Sails returns for no gain to the SFla 42 KJ Sails fumbled, recovered by SFla KJ Sails , return for no gain to the SFla 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10MISSED FG
11 plays · 22 yds · 4:1645% → 50%
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+4
45.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 7:28
2ND & 6
OWN 46
+5
45.4%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Cincy 49Similar
Q2 7:28
3RD & 1
OPP 49
+4
44.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+7
45.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 7 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 3
OPP 38
+3
48.9%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 3 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:45
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+2
49.3%
Jordan McCloud run for 2 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 5:45
2ND & 8
OPP 33
-2
49.5%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 35Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 10
OPP 35
-5
48.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 5:45
3RD & 15
OPP 40
+4
46.9%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 11
OPP 36
+53
50.4%
Spencer Shrader 53 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 11PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0049% → 47%
Q2 3:12
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
51.4%
Desmond Ridder run for no gain to the Cincy 36Similar
Q2 3:12
2ND & 10
OWN 36
0
51.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Gerrid DoaksSimilar
Q2 3:12
3RD & 10
OWN 36
0
52.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kirk Livingstone for a loss of 3 yards to the Cincy 33 Desmond Ridder fumbled, , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 3:12
4TH & 13
OWN 33
0
53.5%
James Smith punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SFla 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12PUNT
7 plays · 20 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+3
53.4%
Jordan McCloud run for 3 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 7
OWN 32
+5
53.3%
CINCINNATI Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the SFla 37Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 2
OWN 37
+4
54.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:11
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
54.7%
Jordan McCloud run for no gain to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 2:11
2ND & 10
OWN 41
0
54.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q2 2:11
3RD & 10
OWN 41
+8
53.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 8 yds to the SFla 49Similar
Q2 2:11
4TH & 2
OWN 49
+15
52.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 46 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 20 , Ryan Montgomery returns for 15 yds to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 13FUMBLE
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0045% → 45%
Q2 0:50
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
55.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for no gain to the Cincy 20Similar
Q2 0:50
2ND & 10
OWN 20
0
55.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Darius Slade for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 20 Desmond Ridder fumbled, recovered by SFla Kevin Kegler , return for 0 yards , return for 0 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14MISSED FG
5 plays · -6 yds · 0:3758% → 57%
Q2 0:37
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+6
58.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 6 yds to the Cincy 14Similar
Q2 0:37
2ND & 4
OPP 14
-12
58.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Bryan Wright for a loss of 12 yards to the Cincy 26 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, illegal formation ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 0:00
3RD & 16
OPP 26
+43
57.0%
Spencer Shrader 43 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 15PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:0054% → 51%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
53.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 14Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+1
53.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 1 yd to the SFla 15Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 15
0
52.4%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 15
+4
51.4%
Trent Schneider punt for 45 yds , Ryan Montgomery returns for 4 yds to the Cincy 44Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16TD
10 plays · 56 yds · 3:2046% → 61%
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+4
54.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 6
OWN 48
+6
53.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 6 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+3
53.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+1
53.1%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 13:45
3RD & 6
OPP 42
+11
53.5%
Desmond Ridder run for 11 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+6
51.8%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q3 13:45
2ND & 4
OPP 25
+5
51.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & 10
OPP 20
+11
51.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 11 yds to the SFla 9 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 9
+8
51.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 8 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 10:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
38.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 17TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 0:3564% → 65%
Q3 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+4
63.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+49
61.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 49 yds to the Cincy 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
64.8%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 21Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 5
OPP 21
0
64.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 9:50
3RD & 5
OPP 21
+5
63.4%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:50
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+7
64.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 7 yds to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 9:50
2ND & 3
OPP 9
+5
64.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds to the Cincy 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 18FG
9 plays · 25 yds · 3:2538% → 40%
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+7
61.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 7 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 3
OPP 42
+3
61.0%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+5
61.6%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the SFla 34Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 5
OPP 34
+9
59.6%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:12
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+2
59.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 7:12
2ND & 8
OPP 23
-1
59.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 7:12
3RD & 9
OPP 24
0
62.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Jayshon Jackson, broken up by Nick RobertsSimilar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 9
OPP 24
+41
59.9%
Sam Crosa 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 0:0066% → 63%
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
65.7%
CRONKRITE, J rush for no gain to the USF25 (TUCKY, Ethan), PENALTY USF holding (CECIL, Brad) 10 yards to the USF15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 20
OWN 15
-4
65.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 11Similar
Q3 3:47
2ND & 24
OWN 11
+15
65.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 15 yds to the SFla 26Similar
Q3 3:47
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+1
64.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 1 yd to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 3:47
4TH & 8
OWN 27
0
62.8%
Trent Schneider punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 20TD
9 plays · 65 yds · 6:0136% → 64%
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+5
64.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, substitution infraction (5 Yards) to the Cincy 40Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 5
OWN 40
+35
62.0%
Michael Warren II run for 35 yds to the SFla 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+11
58.5%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the SFla 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-5
58.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 19Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 15
OPP 19
-5
59.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the SFla 24Similar
Q3 1:26
1ST & 20
OPP 24
+2
60.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 18
OPP 22
+20
62.2%
Desmond Ridder run for 20 yds to the SFla 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:25
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
36.2%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 21FUMBLE
6 plays · 26 yds · 0:0047% → 51%
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
46.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+7
48.6%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 7 yds to the SFla 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-10
49.1%
McCLOUD, Jordan rush for 2 yards to the USF40, out-of-bounds, PENALTY USF holding (HOPPLE, Jarrett) 10 yards to the USF28, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:26
1ST & 20
OWN 28
+14
46.5%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 14 yds to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 14:26
2ND & 6
OWN 42
+11
50.7%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 11 yds to the Cincy 49 Kelley Joiner Jr. fumbled, forced by Ja'von Hicks, recovered by Cincy Ja'von Hicks , return for no gain to the Cincy 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 22PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 0:0062% → 55%
Q4 13:04
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-4
37.9%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the SOUFLA 45 CINCINNATI Penalty, Offensive holding (-10 Yards) to the Cincy 45Similar
Q4 13:04
1ST & 14
OWN 45
+1
40.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the Cincy 46Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 13
OWN 46
-10
41.0%
RIDDER, Desmond rush for 5 yards to the USF49 (;STUDSTILL, D), PENALTY CIN holding (ROBINSON, J.) 10 yards to the CIN36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 13:04
2ND & 23
OWN 36
+3
43.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 13:04
3RD & 20
OWN 39
+9
43.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Gerrid Doaks for 9 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 13:04
4TH & 11
OWN 48
+12
44.6%
James Smith punt for 47 yds , KJ Sails returns for 12 yds to the SFla 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 23PUNT
6 plays · 14 yds · 0:0049% → 46%
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+8
49.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 8 yds to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 2
OWN 25
+2
50.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:45
1ST & 10
OWN 27
0
49.7%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the SFla 27Similar
Q4 9:45
2ND & 10
OWN 27
0
48.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q4 9:45
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+4
46.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 31
0
46.2%
Trent Schneider punt, downed at the SFla 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 24PUNT
4 plays · 2 yds · 0:0060% → 55%
Q4 7:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
39.7%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the SFla 44Similar
Q4 7:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
39.9%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick Mbodj, broken up by Mike HamptonSimilar
Q4 7:58
3RD & 8
OPP 44
0
40.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec Pierce, broken up by Antonio GrierSimilar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 8
OPP 44
0
44.8%
James Smith punt for 41 yds, downed at the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25MISSED FG
13 plays · 82 yds · 5:0049% → 57%
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
49.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 10
OWN 3
0
48.6%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 10
OWN 3
+41
46.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Eddie McDoom for 41 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+6
55.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 4
50
0
57.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 4
50
+19
55.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 19 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+7
58.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 7 yds to the Cincy 24Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 3
OPP 24
+2
58.8%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 2 yds to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+2
56.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the Cincy 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:07
1ST & 10
OPP 20
-2
58.8%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 22Similar
Q4 7:07
2ND & 12
OPP 22
+7
58.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the Cincy 15Similar
Q4 7:07
3RD & 5
OPP 15
0
56.7%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q4 2:07
4TH & 5
OPP 15
+33
56.9%
Spencer Shrader 33 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26FG
15 plays · 60 yds · 2:0753% → 95%
Q4 2:07
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-7
46.8%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 7 yards to the Cincy 13Similar
Q4 2:07
2ND & 17
OWN 13
+6
48.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 19Similar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 11
OWN 19
+11
50.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 11 yds to the Cincy 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:27
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
46.3%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:27
2ND & 10
OWN 30
0
47.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Malick MbodjSimilar
Q4 1:27
3RD & 10
OWN 30
+30
49.3%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 30 yds to the SFla 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+11
37.3%
Michael Warren II run for 11 yds to the SFla 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 29
+5
34.5%
Michael Warren II run for 5 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q4 0:35
2ND & 5
OPP 24
+3
36.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q4 0:35
3RD & 2
OPP 21
+1
38.3%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the SFla 20Similar
Q4 0:00
4TH & 1
OPP 20
+37
5.2%
Sam Crosa 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
FG · Q4 0:00
Sam Crosa 37 yd FG GOOD
-36.6
TD · Q3 10:25
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds for a TD (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+25.3
TD · Q4 10:25
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)
-20.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com