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ECU

East Carolina 51 at SMU 59

SMU
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 9, 2019 · Gerald J. Ford Stadium
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Win probability · SMU
modelSMU aheadECU aheadconfidence bandkey playSMU scoreECU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 12:37 · Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 49 , James Proche returns for 11 yds to the ECaro 49
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+41.5+20.80−20.8−41.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 14Pregame prior+40.3Home team on offense+0.4Garbage-time factor+0.0Score differential+0.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+0.1Blowout margin+0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 8:06: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +10.9 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  2. TD · Q3 0:19: Xavier Jones run for 64 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +14.8 pts (now 90%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q4 10:58: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 57 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +20.6 pts (now 33%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  4. TD · Q4 7:25: Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 31 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +16.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 1:55: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK) — ECU win probability +10.9 pts (now 14%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
SMU made the numbers' call on 7 of 9ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7
  1. Q1 12:37ECU 4th & 17 at ECU 15, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.3%−0.2
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 10:16ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 34, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.9%−<0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:10SMU 4th & 7 at SMU 40, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.9%−<0.1
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    91.0%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:51SMU 4th & 2 at ECU 4, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 88.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    88.6%
    50% to convert
    Field goal
    88.5%−0.2
    93% to make
    Punt
    87.7%−0.9
    average punt
  5. Q1 3:51ECU 4th & 20 at ECU 43, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 9.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.8%
    average punt
  6. Q2 15:00SMU 4th & 14 at SMU 16, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.5%−0.6
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.1%
    average punt
  7. Q2 11:06ECU 4th & 10 at SMU 21, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.1%−0.4
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    11.4%
    74% to make
    Punt
    9.5%−1.9
    average punt
  8. Q2 11:06SMU 4th & 6 at ECU 23, up 4
    Close callWent for it · 86.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    86.7%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    86.7%
    70% to make
    Punt
    85.2%−1.5
    average punt
  9. Q2 7:22ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 30, down 11
    Close callPunted · 10.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.3%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    9.9%−0.4
    average punt
  10. Q2 2:04SMU 4th & 9 at SMU 38, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.3%−0.2
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.5%
    average punt
  11. Q3 5:34SMU 4th & 5 at ECU 5, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.8%−0.1
    33% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    92% to make
    Punt
    68.7%−9.2
    average punt
  12. Q3 1:56ECU 4th & 15 at SMU 24, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%−1.9
    16% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.3%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.4%−5.9
    average punt
  13. Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 1 at ECU 29, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 10.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    10.0%−2.7
    average punt
  14. Q4 10:58SMU 4th & 5 at ECU 41, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 72.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    72.6%
    42% to convert
    Field goal
    69.9%−2.7
    32% to make
    Punt
    71.1%−1.5
    average punt
  15. Q4 7:25SMU 4th & 20 at ECU 31, up 1
    Numbers favored field goal by 6.1 ptsWent for it · 67.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    61.4%−6.1
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    67.6%
    54% to make
    Punt
    64.0%−3.6
    average punt
  16. Q4 0:55SMU 4th & 3 at ECU 39, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 95.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    95.9%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    95.7%−0.2
    36% to make
    Punt
    95.3%−0.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 8ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6
  1. Q1 12:44SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 7:20ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    10.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    10.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 3:51SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:28SMU Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    89.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:45SMU Touchdown, up 17 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    93.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:04ECU Touchdown, down 12 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 13:53ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 12:01SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 8:06ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    22.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  10. Q3 0:19SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    86.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 10:58ECU Touchdown, down 2 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.4%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%
    45% to convert
  12. Q4 7:25SMU Touchdown, up 7 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    89.6%−0.5
    45% to convert
  13. Q4 4:18SMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    97.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    96.6%−0.4
    45% to convert
  14. Q4 1:55ECU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    4.3%−0.9
    97% to make
    Go for two
    5.2%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 2:1691% → 91%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
91.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 27Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
91.4%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 30Similar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
91.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 5 yds to the SMU 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+18
91.4%
Xavier Jones run for 18 yds to the ECaro 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+9
91.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 9 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 38
+3
91.4%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+13
91.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 13 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:44
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
91.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 22 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+1
91.1%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 12:37
2ND & 9
OWN 23
+4
91.1%
Demetrius Mauney run for 4 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 12:37
3RD & 5
OWN 27
-12
91.1%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Delontae Scott for a loss of 12 yards to the ECaro 15Similar
Q1 12:37
4TH & 17
OWN 15
+11
91.1%
Jonn Young punt for 45 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 49 , James Proche returns for 11 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3INT
3 plays · 21 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+8
91.0%
Shane Buechele run for 8 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q1 10:59
2ND & 2
OPP 41
+13
91.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Calvin Wiggins for 13 yds to the ECaro 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:59
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+20
91.0%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Ja'Quan McMillian return for 20 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 10:16
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+4
90.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 10:16
2ND & 6
OWN 32
+2
90.6%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 10:16
3RD & 4
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 10:16
4TH & 4
OWN 34
0
90.7%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds, fair catch by James Proche at the SMU 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5PUNT
6 plays · 18 yds · 0:0091% → 91%
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
90.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 9 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+6
90.7%
Xavier Jones run for 6 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:10
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
90.7%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q1 9:10
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
90.8%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:10
3RD & 7
OWN 40
0
90.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 9:10
4TH & 7
OWN 40
0
90.5%
Trevor Denbow punt for 30 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 6TD
3 plays · 70 yds · 0:4210% → 11%
Q1 8:02
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+2
90.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 8:02
2ND & 8
OWN 32
0
90.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 8
OWN 32
+68
89.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 68 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:2989% → 90%
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
89.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the SMU 29Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+7
89.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+12
89.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to CJ Sanders for 12 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+19
89.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 19 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+21
89.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 21 yds to the ECaro 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:20
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+7
89.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 7 yds to the ECaro 5Similar
Q1 7:20
2ND & 3
OPP 5
+1
89.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the ECaro 4Similar
Q1 7:20
3RD & 2
OPP 4
0
89.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 2
OPP 4
+4
89.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 4 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 8PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:0010% → 10%
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
89.7%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+3
89.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 3 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+23
89.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 23 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:51
1ST & 10
OPP 47
0
89.2%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the SMU 47Similar
Q1 3:51
2ND & 10
OPP 47
-10
89.3%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 10 yards to the ECaro 43Similar
Q1 3:51
3RD & 20
OWN 43
0
89.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:51
4TH & 20
OWN 43
+6
89.9%
Jonn Young punt for 43 yds , James Proche returns for 6 yds to the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -4 yds · 0:4489% → 89%
Q1 0:44
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-2
89.2%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 0:44
2ND & 12
OWN 18
-2
89.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 16Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 14
OWN 16
0
88.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
88.5%
Trevor Denbow punt for 39 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 10FG
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:3912% → 14%
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+1
88.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 1 yd to the ECaro 46Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 9
OWN 46
+3
88.4%
Tay Williams run for 3 yds to the ECaro 49Similar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 6
OWN 49
+8
88.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+9
88.1%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 1
OPP 34
+13
87.7%
Tay Williams run for 13 yds to the SMU 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-4
87.7%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 25Similar
Q2 14:45
2ND & 14
OPP 25
0
88.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 14:45
3RD & 14
OPP 25
+4
88.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tay Williams for 4 yds to the SMU 21Similar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 10
OPP 21
+38
85.9%
Jake Verity 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3886% → 90%
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+6
86.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 4
OWN 31
+19
86.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 19 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
50
+3
87.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the ECaro 47Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 7
OPP 47
+10
87.0%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 10 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+6
87.1%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 4
OPP 31
+4
87.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 4 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:06
1ST & 10
OPP 27
-2
87.3%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q2 11:06
2ND & 12
OPP 29
+6
87.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Tyler Page for 6 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 11:06
3RD & 6
OPP 23
0
86.9%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Malik FlemingSimilar
Q2 11:06
4TH & 6
OPP 23
+20
86.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 20 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
90.2%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 20 yds · 0:0011% → 10%
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+11
89.4%
Tay Williams run for 11 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:22
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+2
89.3%
Tay Williams run for 2 yds to the ECaro 23Similar
Q2 7:22
2ND & 8
OWN 23
+7
89.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 7 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 7:22
3RD & 1
OWN 30
0
89.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q2 7:22
4TH & 1
OWN 30
0
89.6%
Jonn Young punt for 36 yds, downed at the SMU 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13TD
3 plays · 66 yds · 1:0290% → 94%
Q2 5:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+6
89.7%
Shane Buechele run for 6 yds to the SMU 40Similar
Q2 5:47
2ND & 4
OWN 40
+9
90.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 9 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+51
93.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 51 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 14TD
7 plays · 73 yds · 2:377% → 11%
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+1
92.8%
Jsi Hatfield run for 1 yd to the ECaro 28Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 9
OWN 28
+2
93.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 2 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q2 4:41
3RD & 7
OWN 30
+22
92.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 22 yds to the SMU 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:41
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+4
92.2%
Tay Williams run for 4 yds to the SMU 44Similar
Q2 4:41
2ND & 6
OPP 44
+8
92.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 8 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OPP 36
+36
88.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 36 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 13 yds · 0:0090% → 89%
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
90.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:04
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+1
90.2%
Shane Buechele run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q2 2:04
2ND & 9
OWN 38
0
90.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q2 2:04
3RD & 9
OWN 38
0
89.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 2:04
4TH & 9
OWN 38
0
89.2%
Trevor Denbow punt for 42 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the ECaro 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 16FG
10 plays · 60 yds · 1:0010% → 14%
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+29
89.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 29 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
88.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tay WilliamsSimilar
Q2 1:00
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
88.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 11 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:00
1ST & 10
OPP 40
0
88.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 0:40
2ND & 10
OPP 40
+12
89.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the SMU 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:16
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
88.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 8 yds to the SMU 20Similar
Q2 0:00
2ND & 2
OPP 20
+37
86.0%
Jake Verity 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 1:0712% → 22%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
87.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+32
87.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for 32 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+45
78.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 45 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:5282% → 89%
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
81.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 10
OWN 25
0
81.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Tyler PageSimilar
Q3 13:53
3RD & 10
OWN 25
+20
80.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 20 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
82.9%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 13:53
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+9
83.0%
Kylen Granson run for 9 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:53
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
83.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 8 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+35
89.4%
Xavier Jones run for 35 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:5513% → 24%
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
87.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+4
86.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 12:01
3RD & 2
OWN 33
+5
87.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 5 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+1
86.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 9
OWN 39
+12
86.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 12 yds to the SMU 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:01
1ST & 10
OPP 49
-2
85.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 49Similar
Q3 12:01
2ND & 12
OWN 49
+4
86.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the SMU 47Similar
Q3 8:06
3RD & 8
OPP 47
+47
75.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 47 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20FG
9 plays · 47 yds · 2:2281% → 82%
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+1
80.5%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & 9
OWN 49
+9
80.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 9 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+36
81.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 36 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:56
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
81.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 7:56
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
+4
81.6%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 4 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
-4
80.7%
SMU Penalty, false start (-4 Yards) to the ECaro 5Similar
Q3 7:56
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
0
80.7%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Xavier JonesSimilar
Q3 5:34
4TH & GOAL
OPP 5
+23
81.8%
Kevin Robledo 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FG
11 plays · 51 yds · 3:3820% → 25%
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
79.9%
Tay Williams run for 10 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
79.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 4
OWN 41
+14
77.2%
Tay Williams run for 14 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+13
76.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the SMU 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+7
75.6%
Tay Williams run for 7 yds to the SMU 25Similar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 3
OPP 25
+6
75.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:34
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
75.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q3 5:34
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-5
75.6%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 24Similar
Q3 5:34
3RD & 15
OPP 24
0
78.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 1:56
4TH & 15
OPP 24
+41
75.2%
Jake Verity 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:2975% → 90%
Q3 1:48
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
74.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
76.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the SMU 34Similar
Q3 1:48
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+2
75.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the SMU 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+64
90.2%
Xavier Jones run for 64 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23TD
11 plays · 97 yds · 4:2011% → 33%
Q3 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+5
88.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the ECaro 8Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 8
+2
88.9%
Tay Williams run for 2 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OWN 10
+10
89.4%
Holton Ahlers run for 10 yds to the ECaro 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
88.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+5
88.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tay Williams for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 5
OWN 25
+4
88.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 4 yds to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 1
OWN 29
+1
89.0%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+12
88.0%
Jsi Hatfield run for 12 yds to the ECaro 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
87.4%
Tay Williams run for 1 yd to the ECaro 43Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 9
OWN 43
+57
66.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 57 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:3371% → 91%
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
71.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+29
71.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 14 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Chance Purvis) to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+2
75.6%
James Proche run for 2 yds to the ECaro 44Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 8
OPP 44
0
75.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 8
OPP 44
+3
74.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 3 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 10:58
4TH & 5
OPP 41
+20
72.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 20 yds to the ECaro 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:58
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
76.6%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 7
OPP 18
-5
76.6%
SMU Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 10:58
2ND & 12
OPP 23
0
76.4%
BUECHELE, Shane pass incomplete to PROCHE, James, PENALTY SMU illegal touching (PROCHE, James) 0 yards to the ECU23, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 10:58
3RD & 12
OPP 23
-8
74.1%
Shane Buechele sacked by Chance Purvis for a loss of 8 yards to the ECaro 31Similar
Q4 7:25
4TH & 20
OPP 31
+31
90.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 31 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26TD
6 plays · 22 yds · 3:0093% → 98%
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
92.9%
Shane Buechele run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 12
OPP 24
+1
92.8%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the ECaro 23Similar
Q4 7:18
3RD & 11
OPP 23
+12
92.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 12 yds to the ECaro 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:18
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
92.9%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the ECaro 11Similar
Q4 7:18
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+8
92.9%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the ECaro 3Similar
Q4 4:18
3RD & 2
OPP 3
+3
97.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 27TD
11 plays · 72 yds · 2:163% → 14%
Q4 4:11
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+9
96.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 9 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q4 4:11
2ND & 1
OWN 37
-1
96.9%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 2
OWN 36
+21
96.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 21 yds to the SMU 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+4
96.5%
Tay Williams run for 4 yds to the SMU 39Similar
Q4 3:17
2ND & 6
OPP 39
0
96.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete, broken up by Demerick GarySimilar
Q4 3:17
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+13
96.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 13 yds to the SMU 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:17
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+4
95.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 4 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 6
OPP 22
+22
85.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Audie Omotosho for 22 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28END OF GAME
9 plays · 9 yds · 0:5996% → 98%
Q4 1:54
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+5
96.4%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 1:51
2ND & 5
OPP 41
0
97.0%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 5
OPP 41
+2
96.8%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
Q4 0:55
4TH & 3
OPP 39
+4
97.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
97.7%
TEAM run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 10:58
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 57 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)
-20.6
TD · Q4 7:25
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 31 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+16.3
TD · Q3 0:19
Xavier Jones run for 64 yds for a TD (Kevin Robledo KICK)
+14.8
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com