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UCF

UCF 31 at Tulsa 34

TLSA
2019 · Week 11 · Nov 8, 2019 · Chapman Stadium
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Win probability · TLSA
modelTLSA aheadUCF aheadconfidence bandkey playTLSA scoreUCF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDFGTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 9:25 · Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 26
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+38.0+19.00−19.0−38.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Pregame prior−29.5Home team on offense−6.9Score differential−3.7Garbage-time factor−2.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.4Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.9
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 6:35: Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +7.8 pts (now 24%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. TD · Q2 0:11: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +6.5 pts (now 87%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 5:16: T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +15.8 pts (now 34%) (top driver: Game still competitive relative to time left).
  4. TD · Q4 9:14: Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK) — TLSA win probability +34.9 pts (now 56%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 5:09: Jacob Rainey 23 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +12.3 pts (now 70%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TLSA made the numbers' call on 8 of 11UCF made the numbers' call on 10 of 10
  1. Q1 11:25TLSA 4th & 9 at TLSA 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:52UCF 4th & 11 at UCF 12, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.1
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.9%
    average punt
  3. Q1 2:30TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 13, tied
    Close callPunted · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    21.7%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    21.4%−0.3
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:44TLSA 4th & 9 at UCF 14, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    19.6%−0.6
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.2%
    84% to make
    Punt
    16.6%−3.5
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:20TLSA 4th & 5 at TLSA 30, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.4%−0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 9:25UCF 4th & 4 at UCF 24, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.5%−0.2
    47% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.7%
    average punt
  7. Q2 3:37UCF 4th & 14 at UCF 16, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 72.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.1%−2.1
    17% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    73.2%
    average punt
  8. Q2 2:14TLSA 4th & 12 at TLSA 44, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 25.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.0%−0.6
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.6%
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:08UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 39, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.4%−0.3
    37% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.7%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:19TLSA 4th & 1 at TLSA 32, down 11
    Close callPunted · 16.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.2%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    16.4%−0.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 6:15TLSA 4th & 2 at UCF 14, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 17.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    17.7%
    56% to convert
    Field goal
    16.9%−0.8
    84% to make
    Punt
    11.0%−6.7
    average punt
  12. Q3 3:05UCF 4th & 3 at TLSA 32, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 73.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    73.5%
    53% to convert
    Field goal
    71.6%−2.0
    51% to make
    Punt
    69.9%−3.7
    average punt
  13. Q3 0:37UCF 4th & 11 at TLSA 18, up 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 72.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    69.5%−2.6
    24% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    72.2%
    79% to make
    Punt
    60.3%−11.9
    average punt
  14. Q4 14:14TLSA 4th & 2 at TLSA 33, down 7
    Close callPunted · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    23.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    23.1%−0.1
    average punt
  15. Q4 12:39UCF 4th & 5 at UCF 25, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 78.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    78.8%−1.0
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    79.8%
    average punt
  16. Q4 9:38TLSA 4th & 9 at UCF 36, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 22.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    21.0%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    20.9%−0.1
    42% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−1.4
    average punt
  17. Q4 7:39TLSA 4th & 7 at UCF 18, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 53.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    50.9%−2.1
    35% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    53.0%
    79% to make
    Punt
    33.3%−19.8
    average punt
  18. Q4 5:09TLSA 4th & 6 at UCF 6, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 55.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    51.0%−1.0
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    51.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    27.6%−24.3
    average punt
  19. Q4 4:03UCF 4th & 3 at UCF 26, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.1% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    28.0%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    24.6%−3.4
    average punt
  20. Q4 2:31UCF 4th & 9 at UCF 41, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 26.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    20.6%
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    18.0%−2.6
    average punt
  21. Q4 1:27UCF 4th & 12 at TLSA 47, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    16.0%
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    12.6%−3.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TLSA made the numbers' call on 4 of 4UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 6:30TLSA Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    21.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    21.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:23UCF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    78.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    78.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 1:32UCF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    80.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    80.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 11:51UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 6:35TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    24.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:11UCF Touchdown, up 10 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.4%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 5:16TLSA Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.7%−0.2
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 9:14TLSA Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    44.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    44.3%−0.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
11 plays · 22 yds · 3:3012% → 14%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
12.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q1 14:35
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
12.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 14:15
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+5
12.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (Chris DeLoach) to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:50
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+8
12.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 13:35
2ND & 2
OWN 43
0
13.1%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q1 13:09
3RD & 2
OWN 43
+3
13.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:48
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+1
13.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 12:08
2ND & 9
OWN 47
0
13.8%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q1 11:32
3RD & 9
OWN 47
0
14.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr.Similar
Q1 11:25
4TH & 9
OWN 47
0
14.0%
Thomas Bennett punt for 40 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · -1 yds · 1:2986% → 85%
Q1 11:21
1ST & 10
OWN 13
0
14.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 13
+4
14.1%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 10:59
3RD & 6
OWN 17
-5
14.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Edward Collins) to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 10:35
3RD & 11
OWN 12
-5
14.5%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 7Similar
Q1 10:05
4TH & 16
OWN 7
+5
14.8%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the UCF 12Similar
Q1 9:52
4TH & 11
OWN 12
0
14.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 36 yds, downed at the UCF 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3TD
10 plays · 48 yds · 3:1515% → 19%
Q1 9:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+3
15.2%
Keylon Stokes run for 3 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 9:13
2ND & 7
OPP 45
+15
15.5%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 15 yds to the UCF 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:57
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+9
15.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 9 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 8:41
2ND & 1
OPP 21
0
15.8%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q1 8:14
3RD & 1
OPP 21
+3
15.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the UCF 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 18
+1
16.2%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the UCF 17Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 9
OPP 17
+6
16.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 6 yds to the UCF 11Similar
Q1 7:01
3RD & 3
OPP 11
+7
16.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Shamari Brooks for 7 yds to the UCF 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:44
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
17.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the UCF 1Similar
Q1 6:30
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
18.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 5TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 2:0282% → 83%
Q1 6:25
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
18.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 16 yds to the UCF 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:59
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+9
18.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 9 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q1 5:49
2ND & 1
50
+2
18.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 2 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:31
1ST & 10
OPP 48
0
18.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 5:19
2ND & 10
OPP 48
+7
18.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 41Similar
Q1 5:07
3RD & 3
OPP 41
+15
18.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 15 yds to the Tulsa 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:57
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+15
18.5%
TULSA Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Brandon Johnson) to the Tulsa 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:52
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
18.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q1 4:45
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+10
18.7%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
0
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for no gain to the Tulsa 1 Dillon Gabriel fumbled, recovered by UCF Dillon GabrielSimilar
Q1 4:23
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
16.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4918% → 18%
Q1 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 4
0
17.5%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulsa 4Similar
Q1 3:48
2ND & 10
OWN 4
+6
17.8%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q1 3:03
3RD & 4
OWN 10
+3
17.9%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q1 2:30
4TH & 1
OWN 13
0
18.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 51 yds, downed at the UCF 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
5 plays · 64 yds · 0:4682% → 85%
Q1 2:18
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+7
18.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the UCF 43Similar
Q1 1:59
2ND & 3
OWN 43
+2
17.8%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 45Similar
Q1 1:50
3RD & 1
OWN 45
+4
18.0%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:35
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+49
18.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 49 yds to the Tulsa 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:32
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
15.0%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 10FG
13 plays · 61 yds · 3:4816% → 20%
Q1 1:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
16.0%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Offside (5 Yards) to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q1 1:18
1ST & 5
OWN 30
+2
16.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+10
16.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 10 yds to the Tulsa 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:38
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+6
16.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 48Similar
Q1 0:29
2ND & 4
OWN 48
+4
17.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:08
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+21
17.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 21 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+8
17.9%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the UCF 19Similar
Q2 14:38
2ND & 2
OPP 19
+4
18.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the UCF 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:14
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+3
18.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the UCF 12Similar
Q2 13:52
2ND & 7
OPP 12
-10
18.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (Gerard Wheeler) to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 13:21
2ND & 17
OPP 22
0
18.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 13:18
3RD & 17
OPP 22
+8
17.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q2 12:44
4TH & 9
OPP 14
+31
19.9%
Jacob Rainey 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 11TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 0:3881% → 86%
Q2 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
19.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 9 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 12:10
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+9
19.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Ryan O'Keefe for 9 yds to the UCF 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:00
1ST & 10
OWN 43
0
18.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 11:51
2ND & 10
OWN 43
+57
14.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 57 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 5 yds · 1:2515% → 15%
Q2 11:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
15.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 26Similar
Q2 11:11
2ND & 9
OWN 26
+4
15.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 10:31
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
15.4%
Zach Smith pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 10:20
4TH & 5
OWN 30
0
15.1%
Thomas Bennett punt for 52 yds, downed at the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 13PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 0:4185% → 84%
Q2 10:06
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+5
15.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q2 9:50
2ND & 5
OWN 23
+1
15.3%
Bentavious Thompson run for 1 yd to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 9:32
3RD & 4
OWN 24
0
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 9:25
4TH & 4
OWN 24
0
15.9%
Andrew Osteen punt for 50 yds, fair catch by Keylon Stokes at the Tulsa 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 14TD
7 plays · 74 yds · 2:4216% → 24%
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+1
15.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 27Similar
Q2 8:47
2ND & 9
OWN 27
+5
15.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q2 8:12
3RD & 4
OWN 35
+18
15.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 3 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST down UCF Penalty, Unsportsmanlike Conduct (Randy Charlton) to the 50 yard line for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:58
1ST & 10
50
+8
16.1%
Keylon Stokes run for 8 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 2
OPP 42
+5
16.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 5 yds to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+2
16.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 6:35
2ND & 8
OPP 35
+35
24.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 35 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 15PUNT
9 plays · 7 yds · 2:5379% → 76%
Q2 6:30
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+6
21.5%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 15Similar
Q2 6:00
2ND & 4
OWN 15
+2
21.6%
Otis Anderson run for 2 yds to the UCF 17Similar
Q2 5:50
3RD & 2
OWN 17
+3
22.2%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:32
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+1
21.7%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 5:13
2ND & 9
OWN 21
-5
21.9%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Edward Collins) to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 4:51
2ND & 14
OWN 16
+6
22.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 8
OWN 22
-6
23.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Cooper Edmiston for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 16Similar
Q2 3:37
4TH & 14
OWN 16
0
24.2%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, downed at the Tulsa 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 16PUNT
6 plays · -2 yds · 1:1725% → 24%
Q2 3:31
1ST & 10
OWN 46
-15
24.9%
TULSA Penalty, Illegal Block (Dylan Couch) to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q2 3:12
1ST & 25
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q2 2:57
2ND & 25
OWN 31
-1
23.1%
Zach Smith sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q2 2:20
3RD & 26
OWN 30
+14
22.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 14 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 2:14
4TH & 12
OWN 44
0
23.5%
Thomas Bennett punt for 26 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 17TD
10 plays · 70 yds · 1:5278% → 87%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 32
-8
22.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the UCF 32 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 22Similar
Q2 1:59
1ST & 18
OWN 22
0
23.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q2 1:42
2ND & 18
OWN 22
+13
23.7%
Otis Anderson run for 13 yds to the UCF 35Similar
Q2 1:25
3RD & 5
OWN 35
+7
23.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 7 yds to the UCF 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+48
22.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 48 yds to the Tulsa 10 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:40
1ST & GOAL
OPP 10
+1
20.0%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 9Similar
Q2 0:14
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
20.1%
Dillon Gabriel run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 6Similar
Q2 0:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
13.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 18END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0016% → 16%
Q2 0:07
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+3
16.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 19PUNT
10 plays · 14 yds · 2:4784% → 84%
Q3 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
15.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 4 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q3 14:35
2ND & 6
OWN 29
-7
15.6%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Shemarr Robinson for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 14:01
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+14
16.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 14 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
15.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 13:35
2ND & 10
OWN 36
+5
15.6%
Bentavious Thompson run for 5 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q3 12:59
3RD & 5
OWN 43
-8
15.1%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 43 UCF Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 12:32
3RD & 13
OWN 33
+11
16.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 11 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 12:32
4TH & 2
OWN 44
-5
15.8%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 39Similar
Q3 12:08
4TH & 7
OWN 39
+3
15.7%
Andrew Osteen punt for 41 yds , Keylon Stokes returns for 3 yds to the Tulsa 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 20PUNT
4 plays · 9 yds · 1:4016% → 15%
Q3 11:59
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-3
15.8%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 11:31
2ND & 13
OWN 20
+2
15.7%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 22Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & 11
OWN 22
+10
14.3%
Seth Boomer run for 10 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 10:19
4TH & 1
OWN 32
0
14.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 62 yds, downed at the UCF 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 21INT
5 plays · 9 yds · 1:2284% → 84%
Q3 10:09
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+8
15.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 8 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 9:59
2ND & 2
OWN 14
+3
15.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 9:44
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+4
15.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 9:28
2ND & 6
OWN 21
-6
15.1%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Zaven Collins for a loss of 6 yards to the UCF 15Similar
Q3 8:47
3RD & 12
OWN 15
0
15.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Cristian Williams return for no gain to the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 22TD
9 plays · 50 yds · 3:2217% → 34%
Q3 8:38
1ST & 10
50
+2
16.8%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the UCF 48Similar
Q3 8:07
2ND & 8
OPP 48
+26
17.0%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 26 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:59
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+1
18.1%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the UCF 21Similar
Q3 7:17
2ND & 9
OPP 21
+8
18.3%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the UCF 13Similar
Q3 6:59
3RD & 1
OPP 13
-1
17.3%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 14Similar
Q3 6:15
4TH & 2
OPP 14
+6
16.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 6 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
18.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the UCF 8Similar
Q3 5:22
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+6
18.7%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (6 Yards) to the UCF 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 5:16
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
34.4%
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 23FG
17 plays · 52 yds · 4:2673% → 80%
Q3 5:03
1ST & 10
OWN 30
0
26.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 4:51
2ND & 10
OWN 30
+3
26.7%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 4:34
3RD & 7
OWN 33
+16
27.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 16 yds to the UCF 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:15
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
22.9%
Otis Anderson run for 8 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q3 4:05
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+4
22.4%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 3:47
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
22.8%
Dillon Gabriel run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 35Similar
Q3 3:29
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+3
21.3%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 3:12
3RD & 3
OPP 32
0
22.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 3:05
4TH & 3
OPP 32
+4
25.0%
Darriel Mack Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:43
1ST & 10
OPP 28
-2
21.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 30Similar
Q3 2:17
2ND & 12
OPP 30
+10
21.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 10 yds to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 2:10
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+3
22.4%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:53
1ST & 10
OPP 17
0
21.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q3 1:48
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+4
21.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 13Similar
Q3 1:08
3RD & 6
OPP 13
-5
22.7%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by Trevis Gipson for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulsa 18Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & 11
OPP 18
+35
19.8%
Dylan Barnas 35 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 24PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:0821% → 21%
Q3 0:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
21.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q3 0:08
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+5
21.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 14:55
3RD & 2
OWN 33
0
22.2%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the Tulsa 33Similar
Q4 14:14
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
20.9%
Thomas Bennett punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 25PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 1:2681% → 80%
Q4 14:05
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for no gain to the UCF 20Similar
Q4 13:48
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+3
18.9%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the UCF 23Similar
Q4 13:01
3RD & 7
OWN 23
+2
19.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Bentavious Thompson for 2 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 12:39
4TH & 5
OWN 25
0
20.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Jarion Anderson at the Tulsa 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 26TD
9 plays · 63 yds · 3:1522% → 56%
Q4 12:29
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+7
22.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q4 12:09
2ND & 3
OWN 44
+4
24.8%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:35
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+15
24.9%
UCF Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Nevelle Clarke) to the UCF 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:29
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-10
26.3%
TULSA Penalty, Offensive Holding (James Palmer) to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 11:20
1ST & 20
OPP 47
0
24.3%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for no gain to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 10:30
2ND & 20
OPP 47
0
22.7%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keenen JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:10
3RD & 20
OPP 47
+11
21.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Corey Taylor II for 11 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q4 9:38
4TH & 9
OPP 36
+19
21.2%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 19 yds to the UCF 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:14
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+17
56.0%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 27MISSED FG
4 plays · 3 yds · 1:2356% → 52%
Q4 9:02
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
56.2%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the UCF 21Similar
Q4 8:24
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+3
56.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the UCF 18Similar
Q4 7:39
4TH & 7
OPP 18
+35
52.2%
Jacob Rainey 35 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 28INT
3 plays · 17 yds · 0:3055% → 58%
Q4 7:29
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+14
45.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 14 yds to the UCF 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:15
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
43.3%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q4 6:59
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+24
42.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass intercepted Reggie Robinson II return for 24 yds to the UCF 18Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 29FG
6 plays · 12 yds · 1:3658% → 70%
Q4 6:45
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-1
58.3%
Seth Boomer run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 19Similar
Q4 6:12
2ND & 11
OPP 19
+14
58.9%
Seth Boomer pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 14 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:51
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-1
59.4%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 6Similar
Q4 5:18
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
60.0%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:13
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
57.9%
Seth Boomer pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q4 5:09
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
70.1%
Jacob Rainey 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 30DOWNS
14 plays · 34 yds · 3:2836% → 25%
Q4 4:55
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
64.1%
Otis Anderson run for 6 yds to the UCF 25Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+1
62.8%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q4 4:09
3RD & 3
OWN 26
0
65.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q4 4:03
4TH & 3
OWN 26
+14
67.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+7
61.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 7 yds to the UCF 47Similar
Q4 3:35
2ND & 3
OWN 47
0
59.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 3:29
3RD & 3
OWN 47
-15
60.0%
UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (-15 Yards) to the UCF 32Similar
Q4 3:05
3RD & 18
OWN 32
+9
69.0%
Dillon Gabriel run for 9 yds to the UCF 41Similar
Q4 2:31
4TH & 9
OWN 41
+14
72.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 14 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:18
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+2
64.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 43Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 8
OPP 43
+3
65.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q4 1:34
3RD & 5
OPP 47
-7
67.0%
Dillon Gabriel sacked by TEAM for a loss of 7 yards to the Tulsa 47 UCF Penalty, Intentional Grounding (Dillon Gabriel) to the Tulsa 47Similar
Q4 1:27
4TH & 12
OPP 47
0
75.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 31END OF 4TH QUARTER
9 plays · 4 yds · 1:0090% → 95%
Q4 1:19
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+7
89.7%
Corey Taylor II run for 7 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q4 1:12
2ND & 3
OPP 46
+2
91.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 1:07
3RD & 1
OPP 44
0
91.5%
T.K. Wilkerson run for no gain to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 1:04
4TH & 1
OPP 44
+5
91.2%
UCF Penalty, Substitution Infraction (5 Yards) to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:54
1ST & 10
OPP 39
-5
93.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 44Similar
Q4 0:19
2ND & 15
OPP 44
-5
94.6%
TEAM run for a loss of 5 yards to the UCF 49Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 9:14
Seth Boomer pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 17 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+34.9
TD · Q3 5:16
T.K. Wilkerson run for 2 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)
+15.8
FG · Q4 5:09
Jacob Rainey 23 yd FG GOOD
+12.3
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com