2019 · Week 11 · Nov 7, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium
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Win probability · USF
modelUSF aheadTEM aheadconfidence bandkey playUSF scoreTEM score
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q3 8:23 · Adam Barry punt for 40 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 19
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorPregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
This game in five plays
- TD · Q2 1:29: Todd Centeio pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK) — TEM win probability +11.1 pts (now 62%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
- TD · Q3 4:45: Sam Franklin 39 Yd Fumble Return (Will Mobley Kick) — TEM win probability +20.9 pts (now 81%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- TD · Q3 1:01: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +22.7 pts (now 42%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 1:01: Spencer Shrader kickoff for 65 yds for a touchback — TEM win probability +6.2 pts (now 64%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
- KEY PLAY · Q3 0:45: Jager Gardner run for 3 yds to the Temp 28 — TEM win probability +4.7 pts (now 69%) (top driver: TEM has the ball).
Was that the right call?
Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works
Fourth downs
USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 8TEM made the numbers' call on 7 of 8
- Q1 7:58TEM 4th & 1 at USF 21, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.5%71% to convertField goal45.2%−0.374% to makePunt44.2%−1.3average punt
- Q1 6:29TEM 4th & 1 at USF 7, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 45.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call45.6%70% to convertField goal45.1%−0.591% to makePunt43.7%−1.9average punt
- Q1 3:08USF 4th & 14 at TEM 46, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 54.7% before the snapGo for it54.6%−0.519% to convertField goal54.6%−0.523% to makePuntTheir call55.0%average punt
- Q1 2:49TEM 4th & 10 at TEM 14, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.0% before the snapGo for it43.5%−0.628% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.2%average punt
- Q1 0:19USF 4th & 3 at TEM 35, tiedAgrees with the numbersWent for it · 56.1% before the snapGo for itTheir call56.3%53% to convertField goal55.8%−0.545% to makePunt55.5%−0.8average punt
- Q2 13:45TEM 4th & 13 at TEM 32, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.1% before the snapGo for it43.5%−1.420% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call44.9%average punt
- Q2 11:49USF 4th & 2 at USF 35, tiedClose callPunted · 55.2% before the snapGo for it55.6%57% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.4%−0.3average punt
- Q2 9:54TEM 4th & 11 at USF 45, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 44.9% before the snapGo for it44.5%−0.627% to convertField goal44.2%−0.925% to makePuntTheir call45.1%average punt
- Q2 5:15USF 4th & 7 at USF 42, tiedAgrees with the numbersPunted · 55.7% before the snapGo for it55.3%−0.537% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call55.9%average punt
- Q3 10:56USF 4th & 8 at USF 17, down 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 37.2% before the snapGo for it35.4%−2.432% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call37.8%average punt
- Q3 8:23TEM 4th & 14 at TEM 41, up 7Agrees with the numbersPunted · 61.9% before the snapGo for it60.1%−4.018% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call64.0%average punt
- Q4 14:04TEM 4th & 1 at USF 27, up 7Numbers favored go for it by 2.4 ptsKicked a field goal · 74.1% before the snapGo for it74.1%71% to convertField goalTheir call71.7%−2.462% to makePunt65.8%−8.3average punt
- Q4 11:00USF 4th & 1 at USF 45, down 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 20.6% before the snapGo for itTheir call21.0%70% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt18.5%−2.5average punt
- Q4 9:06USF 4th & 21 at USF 42, down 10Agrees with the numbersPunted · 14.9% before the snapGo for it12.5%−3.49% to convertField goalOut of rangePuntTheir call15.9%average punt
- Q4 2:06TEM 4th & 4 at USF 9, up 10Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 92.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call92.1%43% to convertField goal91.7%−0.489% to makePunt86.8%−5.3average punt
- Q4 0:38USF 4th & 14 at USF 5, down 10Close callWent for it · 4.5% before the snapGo for itTheir call4.9%−0.316% to convertField goalOut of rangePunt5.2%average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
USF made the numbers' call on 1 of 1TEM made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
- Q2 1:29TEM Touchdown, up 6 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call56.5%97% to makeGo for two56.4%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 4:45TEM Touchdown, up 13 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call77.1%97% to makeGo for two77.0%−0.145% to convert
- Q3 1:01USF Touchdown, down 8 before the tryAgrees with the numbersKicked · madeKickTheir call27.6%97% to makeGo for two27.4%−0.145% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chartUSFDrive 1FUMBLE11 plays · 46 yds · 2:5656% → 57%
Q1 14:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
56.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 7 yds to the SFla 32Similar
Q1 13:13
4TH & 8
OWN 41
+15
56.4%
TEMPLE Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Temp 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+6
56.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 6 yds to the Temp 38Similar
Q1 11:44
1ST & 10
OPP 29
0
57.1%
Jordan McCloud sacked by DeAndre Kelly for 0 yards to the Temp 29 Jordan McCloud fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 2DOWNS15 plays · 62 yds · 4:5144% → 44%
Q1 11:20
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+5
56.5%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the Temp 34Similar
Q1 10:30
3RD & 3
OWN 36
+9
56.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 9 yds to the Temp 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:10
3RD & 8
OPP 28
+7
56.0%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Tayvon Ruley for 7 yds to the SFla 21Similar
Q1 7:40
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
55.4%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 3PUNT9 plays · 45 yds · 2:5757% → 56%
Q1 4:48
3RD & 9
OWN 20
+19
56.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 19 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:28
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+19
57.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST down TEMPLE Penalty, Targeting (Chapelle Russell) to the Temp 42 for a 1ST down. Russell ejected.Similar
Q1 3:18
3RD & 8
OPP 40
-6
57.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 46Similar
Q1 3:08
4TH & 14
OPP 46
0
56.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 32 yds, fair catch by Isaiah Wright at the Temp 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 4PUNT4 plays · 0 yds · 0:1543% → 43%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 5DOWNS6 plays · 20 yds · 2:0158% → 58%
Q1 0:40
2ND & 8
OPP 40
+5
58.7%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 5 yds to the Temp 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 6PUNT4 plays · -3 yds · 1:1644% → 43%
USFDrive 7PUNT4 plays · 8 yds · 1:4157% → 57%
TEMDrive 8PUNT5 plays · 20 yds · 1:3644% → 44%
Q2 11:30
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+21
55.7%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Branden Mack for 21 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:10
1ST & 10
OPP 44
-1
54.1%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 45Similar
Q2 10:00
3RD & 6
OPP 40
-5
54.4%
Anthony Russo sacked by Darius Slade for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 45Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 9PUNT10 plays · 41 yds · 4:2057% → 57%
Q2 9:00
2ND & 10
OWN 1
+4
57.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 4 yds to the SFla 5Similar
Q2 8:20
3RD & 6
OWN 5
+15
56.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Trevon Sands for 15 yds to the SFla 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:40
2ND & 9
OWN 21
+3
57.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Kelley Joiner Jr. for 3 yds to the SFla 24Similar
Q2 6:15
3RD & 6
OWN 24
+15
56.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 15 yds to the SFla 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 10TD10 plays · 80 yds · 3:3146% → 62%
USFDrive 11END OF HALF14 plays · 32 yds · 1:1443% → 43%
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
43.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 5 yds to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 36
-6
43.9%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Dana Levine for a loss of 6 yards to the SFla 30Similar
Q2 0:30
2ND & 16
OWN 30
+13
41.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 13 yds to the SFla 43Similar
Q2 0:22
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+5
43.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 5 yds to the SFla 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:07
2ND & 10
OWN 48
+15
43.7%
TEMPLE Penalty, Face Mask (15 yards) (Quincy Roche) to the Temp 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:03
1ST & 10
OPP 43
-6
44.8%
Jordan McCloud sacked by TEAM for a loss of 6 yards to the Temp 43 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Intentional Grounding ( Yards) to the Temp 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 12INT7 plays · 44 yds · 1:5260% → 64%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+6
39.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 6 yds to the Temp 36Similar
Q3 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+14
37.9%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 14 yds to the SFla 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 7
OPP 43
+17
36.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 17 yds to the SFla 26 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:53
1ST & 10
OPP 26
+5
36.4%
Anthony Russo pass intercepted Bentlee Sanders return for 5 yds to the SFla 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 13PUNT4 plays · 2 yds · 1:3441% → 38%
TEMDrive 14PUNT5 plays · -4 yds · 2:0764% → 61%
USFDrive 15FUMBLE RETURN TD7 plays · 20 yds · 3:1539% → 20%
USFDrive 16TD8 plays · 90 yds · 3:1919% → 42%
Q3 3:15
3RD & 3
OWN 17
+40
18.3%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 40 yds to the Temp 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:26
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+25
19.2%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 25 yds to the Temp 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:01
1ST & 10
OPP 14
+14
41.9%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 17FG8 plays · 48 yds · 1:4169% → 74%
USFDrive 18FUMBLE13 plays · 35 yds · 4:4324% → 15%
Q4 13:49
1ST & 10
OWN 7
+15
24.1%
TEMPLE Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Amir Tyler) to the SFla 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 13:30
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-4
24.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Terrence Horne for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 18Similar
Q4 11:30
3RD & 8
OWN 38
+7
21.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Xavier Weaver for 7 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q4 11:00
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+8
21.1%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 8 yds to the Temp 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:30
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-3
20.4%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Zack Mesday for a loss of 3 yards to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q4 9:20
3RD & 13
50
-8
16.6%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Quincy Roche for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 42Similar
Q4 9:06
4TH & 21
OWN 42
+1
15.3%
Trent Schneider punt for 42 yds , Isaiah Wright returns for 1 yd to the Temp 17 Isaiah Wright fumbled, recovered by TempSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 19DOWNS16 plays · 74 yds · 6:3985% → 94%
Q4 8:00
2ND & 14
OWN 13
+5
15.2%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 5 yds to the Temp 18Similar
Q4 7:20
3RD & 9
OWN 18
+7
14.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jose Barbon for 7 yds to the Temp 25Similar
Q4 7:00
4TH & 2
OWN 25
+15
14.0%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, Roughing the Kicker (15 Yards) to the Temp 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 6:00
2ND & 15
OWN 35
+24
11.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 24 yds to the SFla 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+5
9.8%
Anthony Russo pass complete to Jadan Blue for 5 yds to the SFla 36Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20DOWNS4 plays · 7 yds · 1:195% → 4%
Q4 1:25
2ND & 10
OWN 9
+4
4.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 4 yds to the SFla 13Similar
Q4 0:50
3RD & 6
OWN 13
-8
4.2%
Jordan McCloud sacked by Quincy Roche and Dana Levine for a loss of 8 yards to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 0:38
4TH & 14
OWN 5
+11
3.8%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 11 yds to the SFla 16Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TEMDrive 21Uncategorized1 play · -1 yds · 0:0096% → 96%
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 1:01
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Bryce Miller for 14 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
+22.7
TD · Q3 4:45
Sam Franklin 39 Yd Fumble Return (Will Mobley Kick)
-20.9
TD · Q2 1:29
Todd Centeio pass complete to Kenny Yeboah for 1 yd for a TD, (Will Mobley KICK)
-11.1