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TLSA

Tulsa 26 at Tulane 38

TULN
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Yulman Stadium
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Win probability · TULN
modelTULN aheadTLSA aheadconfidence bandkey playTULN scoreTLSA score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4FGTDTDFGFGTDFUMBLEFGTDTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 15:00 · Keylon Stokes run for 10 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST down
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsTime remaining
+29.0+14.50−14.5−29.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 46Pregame prior+18.6Home team on offense+3.2Garbage-time factor−0.3Score differential+1.0Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Time remaining−0.1
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:05: Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. FUMBLE · Q2 1:52: Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for a loss of 5 yards for a TD Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by P.J. Hall, recovered by Tulan Willie Langham , return for 13 yds — TULN win probability +6.4 pts (now 81%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:40: Justin McMillan pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 32 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +6.5 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  4. FG · Q4 10:00: Jacob Rainey 38 yd FG GOOD — TLSA win probability +5.2 pts (now 21%) (top driver: TLSA has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:53: Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +7.5 pts (now 96%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 6TLSA made the numbers' call on 7 of 9
  1. Q1 13:58TLSA 4th & 8 at TLSA 14, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.4%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.5%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:05TULN 4th & 7 at TLSA 15, tied
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 74.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    74.5%−0.1
    34% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    74.6%
    83% to make
    Punt
    73.9%−0.7
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:05TLSA 4th & 16 at TULN 25, down 3
    Close callWent for it · 24.9% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    24.7%−0.2
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    24.9%
    66% to make
    Punt
    24.1%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q1 4:06TULN 4th & 1 at TLSA 8, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 74.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    74.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    73.6%−0.7
    90% to make
    Punt
    71.6%−2.7
    average punt
  5. Q2 15:00TLSA 4th & 2 at TULN 35, down 10
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 23.4% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    22.8%−0.8
    45% to make
    Punt
    22.4%−1.1
    average punt
  6. Q2 13:03TULN 4th & 16 at TULN 18, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 71.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    70.6%−1.3
    14% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    71.9%
    average punt
  7. Q2 8:33TLSA 4th & 13 at TULN 24, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 27.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    26.7%−1.0
    20% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    27.7%
    68% to make
    Punt
    24.2%−3.5
    average punt
  8. Q2 4:30TLSA 4th & 3 at TULN 15, tied
    Close callKicked a field goal · 34.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    34.2%
    51% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    33.7%−0.5
    83% to make
    Punt
    28.8%−5.3
    average punt
  9. Q2 0:47TLSA 4th & 10 at TULN 20, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 18.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.3%−0.9
    28% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.2%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.9%−3.2
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:40TULN 4th & 4 at TLSA 32, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 81.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    81.1%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    80.2%−0.9
    51% to make
    Punt
    79.2%−1.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 10:40TLSA 4th & 3 at TULN 5, down 15
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 13.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.8%
    45% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%−0.6
    92% to make
    Punt
    8.8%−5.0
    average punt
  12. Q3 8:30TULN 4th & 1 at TULN 39, up 15
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 89.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    90.4%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 10:00TLSA 4th & 21 at TULN 21, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 11.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    9.7%−5.5
    8% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    15.2%
    74% to make
    Punt
    4.4%−10.8
    average punt
  14. Q4 4:53TULN 4th & 1 at TLSA 1, up 5
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    84.2%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    78.7%−5.5
    94% to make
    Punt
    64.9%−19.3
    average punt
  15. Q4 4:53TLSA 4th & 11 at TLSA 24, down 12
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 5.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    4.8%−0.2
    25% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    4.9%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 4TLSA made the numbers' call on 2 of 2
  1. Q1 1:23TULN Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 13:11TLSA Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    27.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    27.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 2:05TULN Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    72.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    72.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q3 10:40TULN Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q4 14:54TLSA Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    15.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 4:53TULN Touchdown, up 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    94.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    93.9%−0.4
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
TLSADrive 1PUNT
6 plays · 2 yds · 1:0226% → 26%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+3
74.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 15
+2
74.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 17Similar
Q1 13:58
3RD & 5
OWN 17
-3
74.4%
Zach Smith sacked by De'Andre Williams for a loss of 3 yards to the Tulsa 14Similar
Q1 13:58
4TH & 8
OWN 14
0
74.4%
Thomas Bennett punt for 46 yds, downed at the Tulan 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2FG
10 plays · 45 yds · 4:0374% → 74%
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+6
74.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 6 yds to the Tulan 46Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 4
OWN 46
+2
74.4%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Tulan 48Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 2
OWN 48
+7
74.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 7 yds to the Tulsa 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+11
74.4%
Justin McMillan run for 11 yds to the Tulsa 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+16
74.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 16 yds to the Tulsa 18 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 10
OPP 18
-15
74.5%
[Shotgun], McMILLAN, J. slant pass complete to MCCLESKEY, J. for 15 yards to the TLS3 (WILLIAMS, C.), PENALTY TLN pass interference (TOLES, J.) 15 yards to the TLS33, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 13:08
1ST & 25
OPP 33
+1
74.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q1 13:08
2ND & 24
OPP 32
+4
74.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 4 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 13:08
3RD & 20
OPP 28
+13
74.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 13 yds to the Tulsa 15Similar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 7
OPP 15
+31
74.3%
Merek Glover 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 3DOWNS
14 plays · 62 yds · 0:0026% → 26%
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
74.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 28Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+10
74.0%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Z. slant pass complete to JOHNSON, K. for 2 yards to the TLS30 (MONROE, J.), PENALTY TLN holding (BARGE, T.) 10 yards to the TLS38, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+18
73.9%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 18 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+1
73.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulan 43Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 9
OPP 43
0
73.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Patrick JohnsonSimilar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 9
OPP 43
+12
73.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 12 yds to the Tulan 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+2
73.5%
Shamari Brooks run for 2 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 8
OPP 29
+7
73.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 7 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 1
OPP 22
+3
73.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:05
1ST & 10
OPP 19
0
73.4%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keenen Johnson, broken up by P.J. HallSimilar
Q1 9:05
2ND & 10
OPP 19
-6
73.5%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 25Similar
Q1 9:05
3RD & 16
OPP 25
0
73.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon StokesSimilar
Q1 9:05
4TH & 16
OPP 25
+12
74.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 12 yds to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4TD
7 plays · 87 yds · 2:4373% → 78%
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+70
73.3%
Stephon Huderson run for 55 yds to the TULANE 32 for a 1ST down TULSA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the Tulsa 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:06
1ST & 10
OPP 17
-2
74.6%
Stephon Huderson run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 12
OPP 19
-10
74.5%
[Shotgun], HUDERSON, S. rush over right end for 9 yards to the TLS10 (GREEN IV, A.), PENALTY TLN holding (MONTANO, C.) 10 yards to the TLS29, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 4:06
2ND & 22
OPP 29
+10
74.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 10 yds to the Tulsa 19Similar
Q1 4:06
3RD & 12
OPP 19
+11
74.0%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 11 yds to the Tulsa 8Similar
Q1 4:06
4TH & 1
OPP 8
+3
73.8%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
77.6%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 5TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 3:1223% → 30%
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
76.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by P.J. HallSimilar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+18
76.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+14
76.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 14 yds to the Tulan 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:23
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+8
75.8%
Keylon Stokes run for 8 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 1:23
2ND & 2
OPP 35
+1
75.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulan 34Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OPP 34
-5
75.8%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 39Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 6
OPP 39
+4
76.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 4 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 2
OPP 35
+10
76.5%
Keylon Stokes run for 10 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+22
75.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 22 yds to the Tulan 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
75.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 2 yds to the Tulan 1Similar
Q2 13:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
70.5%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
6 plays · -6 yds · 0:0072% → 71%
Q2 13:03
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
72.4%
Darius Bradwell run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 13:03
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
72.3%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 6
OWN 28
-10
72.0%
[Shotgun], McMILLAN, J. middle pass complete to TOLES, J. for 12 yards to the TLN40 (BUNCH, M.;GREEN IV, A.), PENALTY TLN holding (MONTANO, C.) 10 yards to the TLN18, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:03
3RD & 16
OWN 18
0
71.7%
Justin McMillan pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 13:03
4TH & 16
OWN 18
-2
71.4%
Ryan Wright punt for 37 yds , Jarion Anderson returns for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 7FG
7 plays · 33 yds · 2:4629% → 31%
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+1
71.0%
Shamari Brooks run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 44Similar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 9
OWN 44
+7
71.2%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulan 49Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+28
70.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to James Palmer for 28 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:19
1ST & 10
OPP 21
0
70.0%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by P.J. HallSimilar
Q2 11:19
2ND & 10
OPP 21
+5
70.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 5 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
Q2 11:19
3RD & 5
OPP 16
-8
70.7%
Zach Smith sacked by Jeffery Johnson for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 8:33
4TH & 13
OPP 24
+40
69.1%
Jacob Rainey 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8INT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 8:33
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
70.7%
Justin McMillan run for 5 yds to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 8:33
2ND & 5
OWN 30
0
71.1%
Justin McMillan run for no gain to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 8:33
3RD & 5
OWN 30
0
70.3%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Reggie Robinson II return for no gain to the Tulsa 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 9FG
8 plays · 43 yds · 3:0434% → 37%
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+36
65.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 36 yds to the Tulan 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-5
64.6%
TULSA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 7:34
1ST & 15
OPP 27
0
64.9%
Corey Taylor II run for no gain to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 7:34
2ND & 15
OPP 27
-8
65.5%
Zach Smith sacked by Marvin Moody and De'Andre Williams for a loss of 8 yards to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 23
OPP 35
+5
66.8%
TULANE Penalty, offside defense (5 Yards) to the Tulan 30Similar
Q2 7:34
3RD & 18
OPP 30
+15
66.7%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 15 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q2 4:30
4TH & 3
OPP 15
+32
63.0%
Jacob Rainey 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD
7 plays · 65 yds · 2:1765% → 77%
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+9
65.3%
Corey Dauphine run for 9 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q2 4:22
2ND & 1
OWN 44
+12
67.4%
Corey Dauphine run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+37
67.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 37 yds to the Tulsa 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
68.9%
Stephon Huderson run for 6 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q2 2:05
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
76.5%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 11FUMBLE TD
2 plays · -5 yds · 0:0019% → 19%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+13
81.4%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for a loss of 5 yards for a TD Josh Johnson fumbled, forced by P.J. Hall, recovered by Tulan Willie Langham , return for 13 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 12FG
9 plays · 55 yds · 1:0517% → 21%
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+23
83.3%
Shamari Brooks run for 23 yds to the Tulsa 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+10
82.1%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Z. pass incomplete to STOKES, K. (JOHNSON, P.), PENALTY TLN holding (HALL, P.J.) 10 yards to the TLN42, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+7
81.1%
Shamari Brooks run for 7 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 3
OPP 35
+15
79.8%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Z. pass incomplete, QB hurry by GRAHAM, L., PENALTY TLN roughing passer (GRAHAM, L.) 15 yards to the TLN20, 1ST DOWN TLS, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:52
1ST & 10
OPP 20
0
79.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Patrick JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:52
2ND & 10
OPP 20
0
80.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q2 1:52
3RD & 10
OPP 20
0
81.1%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Patrick JohnsonSimilar
Q2 0:47
4TH & 10
OPP 20
+37
79.4%
Jacob Rainey 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13END OF HALF
2 plays · 3 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 9
+3
79.7%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Tulan 12Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 14TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:2080% → 88%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-10
80.3%
[Shotgun], HUDERSON, S. rush over right guard for 4 yards to the TLN29 (RAY, K.), PENALTY TLN holding (DUBLIN, C.) 10 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 20
OWN 15
+1
80.1%
Stephon Huderson run for 1 yd to the Tulan 16Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 19
OWN 16
+6
79.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 6 yds to the Tulan 22Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+16
79.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 16 yds to the Tulan 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+6
81.3%
Corey Dauphine run for 6 yds to the Tulan 44Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OWN 44
+18
81.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 18 yds to the Tulsa 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+1
81.9%
Corey Dauphine run for 1 yd to the Tulsa 37Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 37
+5
81.8%
Darius Bradwell run for 5 yds to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 32
0
81.3%
Ygenio Booker run for no gain to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 4
OPP 32
+32
87.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 32 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 15DOWNS
9 plays · 72 yds · 0:0013% → 14%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
87.0%
TULSA Penalty, false start (Dylan Couch) to the Tulsa 20Similar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 15
OWN 20
+55
87.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 55 yds to the Tulan 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
84.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulan 21Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+9
84.4%
Zach Smith run for 9 yds to the Tulan 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+4
84.4%
Shamari Brooks run for 4 yds to the Tulan 8Similar
Q3 10:40
2ND & 6
OPP 8
+3
84.4%
Zach Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q3 10:40
3RD & 3
OPP 5
0
85.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by P.J. HallSimilar
Q3 10:40
4TH & 3
OPP 5
+2
85.7%
Zach Smith run for 2 yds to the Tulan 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 16PUNT
11 plays · 36 yds · 0:0090% → 90%
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 3
+8
90.3%
Ygenio Booker run for 8 yds to the Tulan 11Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 2
OWN 11
+4
90.5%
Stephon Huderson run for 4 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 15
0
90.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Ygenio BookerSimilar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 10
OWN 15
+8
90.4%
Stephon Huderson run for 8 yds to the Tulan 23Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 2
OWN 23
+7
90.1%
Justin McMillan run for 7 yds to the Tulan 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-5
90.5%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Keyshawn McLeod) to the Tulan 25Similar
Q3 8:30
1ST & 15
OWN 25
+8
90.4%
Justin McMillan run for 8 yds to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 8:30
2ND & 7
OWN 33
+3
90.5%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Tulan 36Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 4
OWN 36
+3
90.4%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Tulan 39Similar
Q3 8:30
4TH & 1
OWN 39
0
90.3%
Ryan Wright punt for 27 yds, downed at the Tulsa 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 17TD
13 plays · 66 yds · 4:5610% → 16%
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 34
-2
89.9%
Corey Taylor II run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 12
OWN 32
-10
90.7%
[Shotgun], SMITH, Z. rush quarterback scramble for 9 yards to the TLS41, PENALTY TLS holding (SMITH, T.) 10 yards to the TLS22, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 22
OWN 22
+15
90.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Keylon Stokes, broken up by P.J. Hall for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (P.J. Hall) to the Tulsa 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+3
89.9%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 40Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OWN 40
0
89.8%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Cameron SampleSimilar
Q3 4:50
3RD & 7
OWN 40
+26
90.1%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 26 yds to the TULANE 34 for a 1ST down TULANE Penalty, offside defense ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 34
+1
88.4%
Corey Taylor II run for 1 yd to the Tulan 33Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 9
OPP 33
+12
88.6%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keenen Johnson for 12 yds to the Tulan 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 21
+3
88.2%
Zach Smith pass complete to Sam Crawford Jr. for 3 yds to the Tulan 18Similar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 7
OPP 18
+7
88.2%
Keylon Stokes run for 7 yds to the Tulan 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:50
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
88.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Jaylon MonroeSimilar
Q3 4:50
2ND & 10
OPP 11
-5
88.2%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 16Similar
Q4 14:54
3RD & 15
OPP 16
+16
83.8%
Zach Smith pass complete to Keylon Stokes for 16 yds for a TD (Jacob Rainey KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 18INT
3 plays · 2 yds · 0:0088% → 87%
Q4 14:49
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+2
87.5%
Darius Bradwell run for 2 yds to the Tulan 25Similar
Q4 14:49
2ND & 8
OWN 25
+9
87.4%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Sam Crawford Jr. return for 9 yds to the Tulan 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 19FG
10 plays · 16 yds · 4:1118% → 21%
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
82.2%
Shamari Brooks run for no gain to the Tulan 37Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 10
OPP 37
0
82.2%
Zach Smith pass incomplete, broken up by Marvin MoodySimilar
Q4 14:11
3RD & 10
OPP 37
+13
83.3%
Zach Smith pass complete to Josh Johnson for 13 yds to the Tulan 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+8
80.6%
Shamari Brooks run for 8 yds to the Tulan 16Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & 2
OPP 16
+8
80.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 8 yds to the Tulan 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:11
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
+3
80.6%
Corey Taylor II run for 3 yds to the Tulan 5Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
80.6%
[Shotgun], TAYLOR II, C. rush over left guard for no gain to the TLN5 (GRAHAM, L.), PENALTY TLS holding (WHEELER, G.) 10 yards to the TLN15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:11
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
-6
81.9%
Zach Smith sacked by Jeffery Johnson and Marvin Moody for a loss of 6 yards to the Tulan 21Similar
Q4 14:11
3RD & GOAL
OPP 21
0
83.9%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 10:00
4TH & GOAL
OPP 21
+38
78.7%
Jacob Rainey 38 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 20TD
14 plays · 70 yds · 5:0280% → 96%
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+1
80.2%
Corey Dauphine run for 1 yd to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 9:55
2ND & 9
OWN 31
+11
80.1%
Justin McMillan run for 11 yds to the Tulan 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+12
81.7%
Corey Dauphine run for 12 yds to the Tulsa 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
82.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 11 yds to the Tulsa 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+16
83.9%
Corey Dauphine run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+16
84.1%
Corey Dauphine run for 16 yds to the Tulsa 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-10
88.8%
BOOKER, Y. rush over left end for 3 yards to the TLS0, clock 07:03, PENALTY TLN holding (McLEOD, K.) 10 yards to the TLS13, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:03
1ST & GOAL
OPP 13
+3
88.6%
Darius Bradwell run for 3 yds to the Tulsa 10Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & 10
OWN 0
0
86.0%
McMILLAN, J. middle pass complete to BOOKER, Y. for 10 yards to the TLS0, clock 06:15, PENALTY TLN ineligible downfield on pass off-setting, PENALTY TLS holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 6:15
2ND & GOAL
OPP 10
+7
89.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 7 yds to the Tulsa 3Similar
Q4 6:15
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+2
88.6%
Ygenio Booker run for 2 yds to the Tulsa 1Similar
Q4 4:53
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
96.1%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TLSADrive 21PUNT
5 plays · -1 yds · 0:003% → 3%
Q4 4:53
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-1
96.6%
Shamari Brooks run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 24Similar
Q4 4:53
2ND & 11
OWN 24
0
96.6%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Sam Crawford Jr., broken up by Thakarius KeyesSimilar
Q4 4:53
3RD & 11
OWN 24
0
96.7%
Zach Smith pass incomplete to Josh JohnsonSimilar
Q4 4:53
4TH & 11
OWN 24
0
96.8%
Thomas Bennett punt for 41 yds, fair catch by Jacob Robertson Jr. at the Tulan 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 22END OF GAME
9 plays · 32 yds · 3:1097% → 98%
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+3
96.7%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Tulan 38Similar
Q4 4:12
2ND & 7
OWN 38
+1
96.8%
Ygenio Booker run for 1 yd to the Tulan 39Similar
Q4 4:12
3RD & 6
OWN 39
+18
96.8%
Justin McMillan run for 18 yds to the Tulsa 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+28
96.9%
Stephon Huderson run for 28 yds to the Tulsa 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-15
97.1%
BOOKER, Y. rush over left end for 3 yards to the TLS12 (EDMISTON, C.;BUNCH, M.), PENALTY TLN personal foul (DUBLIN, C.) 15 yards to the TLS30, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:12
1ST & 25
OPP 30
-1
97.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 31Similar
Q4 1:02
2ND & 26
OPP 31
-1
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 32Similar
Q4 1:02
3RD & 27
OPP 32
-1
98.0%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulsa 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:53
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+7.5
TD · Q2 2:05
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+7
TD · Q3 10:40
Justin McMillan pass complete to Stephon Huderson for 32 yds for a TD (Merek Glover KICK)
+6.5
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com