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CIN

Cincinnati 46 at East Carolina 43

ECU
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadCIN aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreCIN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDTDFGTDFGTDTDTDFGFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 1:49 · Jonn Young punt for 44 yds for a touchback
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+43.5+21.80−21.8−43.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 108Pregame prior−31.9Home team on offense+6.1Score differential+1.6Garbage-time factor+1.7Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+1.2Blowout margin−0.6
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q3 0:14: Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds for a TD Timeout EAST CAROLINA, clock 00:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed ) — ECU win probability +18.9 pts (now 78%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  2. TD · Q4 8:37: Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK) — CIN win probability +20.1 pts (now 53%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 4:38: Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 62 yds for a TD (Desmond Ridder pass to Josiah Deguara for Two-Point Conversion) — CIN win probability +39.0 pts (now 65%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
  4. FG · Q4 1:10: Jake Verity 27 yd FG GOOD — ECU win probability +21.4 pts (now 57%) (top driver: ECU has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD — CIN win probability +35.2 pts (now 95%) (top driver: CIN has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 6CIN made the numbers' call on 2 of 3
  1. Q1 15:00ECU 4th & 5 at ECU 38, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 7.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    7.2%−<0.1
    41% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    7.2%
    average punt
  2. Q1 12:26ECU 4th & 12 at ECU 30, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 8.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    8.0%−0.1
    22% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    8.1%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 8 at CIN 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 11.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    11.2%
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    11.0%−0.2
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    11.1%−0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 8:46CIN 4th & 8 at CIN 33, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    86.4%−0.6
    33% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    86.9%
    average punt
  5. Q2 5:57CIN 4th & 7 at CIN 28, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 80.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.3%−0.7
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    81.0%
    average punt
  6. Q2 1:49ECU 4th & 14 at CIN 44, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.3%−0.7
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    30.5%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    31.1%
    average punt
  7. Q3 4:20ECU 4th & 3 at CIN 3, up 3
    Numbers favored go for it by 2.1 ptsKicked a field goal · 43.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    44.0%
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    41.9%−2.1
    93% to make
    Punt
    30.4%−13.6
    average punt
  8. Q3 4:20CIN 4th & 2 at CIN 33, down 6
    Close callPunted · 52.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.1%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    53.9%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 1:10ECU 4th & 4 at CIN 10, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 34.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    25.9%−18.3
    44% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    44.2%
    88% to make
    Punt
    10.5%−33.6
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 4 of 5CIN made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 9:20CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    91.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    91.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:09ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 8:19CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    90.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    90.8%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 3:22ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    12.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    12.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q1 0:19CIN Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    88.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    88.3%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 5:57ECU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    18.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    18.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q2 3:10ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    29.5%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 10:45CIN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.2%−0.1
    45% to convert
  9. Q3 0:14ECU Touchdown, up 12 before the try
    Close callWent for two · failed
    Kick
    77.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    77.6%−0.2
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 8:37CIN Touchdown, down 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    26.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    26.2%−0.5
    45% to convert
  11. Q4 4:38CIN Touchdown, up 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · converted
    Kick
    61.9%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    62.0%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
ECUDrive 1PUNT
8 plays · 18 yds · 0:007% → 7%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+5
6.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the ECaro 25Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 5
OWN 25
+8
6.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 8 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-5
6.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (C.J. Johnson) to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 15:00
1ST & 15
OWN 28
+3
6.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 12
OWN 31
0
6.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 15:00
3RD & 12
OWN 31
+7
6.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the ECaro 38Similar
Q1 15:00
4TH & 5
OWN 38
0
6.7%
Jonn Young punt for 38 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Cincy 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 2INT
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0093% → 93%
Q1 12:34
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
7.5%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Daniel Charles return for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
5 plays · -2 yds · 0:008% → 8%
Q1 12:26
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
7.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the ECaro 32Similar
Q1 12:26
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+3
7.6%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q1 12:26
3RD & 7
OWN 35
0
7.6%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 7
OWN 35
-5
7.5%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 30Similar
Q1 12:26
4TH & 12
OWN 30
0
7.5%
Jonn Young punt for 20 yds, downed at the 50 yard lineSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 4TD
5 plays · 50 yds · 2:0792% → 92%
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
50
+28
7.8%
Michael Warren II run for 28 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
7.8%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 11:27
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+12
7.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 12 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:27
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+5
7.8%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
7.9%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:009% → 9%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
8.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 75 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 6TD
4 plays · 75 yds · 0:5091% → 92%
Q1 9:09
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+73
8.8%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 73 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:09
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
8.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
8.1%
Gerrid Doaks run for 2 yds for a TD CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 8 (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7TD
18 plays · 75 yds · 4:578% → 12%
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
8.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete, broken up by Michael PittsSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+9
8.3%
Trace Christian run for 9 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 8:19
3RD & 1
OWN 34
+3
8.4%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
8.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+17
8.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 17 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+11
8.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+5
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 5 yds to the Cincy 30Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 5
OPP 30
-5
8.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (-5 Yards) to the Cincy 35Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+11
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the Cincy 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+18
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 18 yds to the Cincy 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
+1
8.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the Cincy 5Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
0
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q1 8:19
3RD & GOAL
OPP 5
+3
8.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, personal foul (Elijah Ponder) to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:19
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 1 yd to the Cincy 1Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
-5
8.7%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Zech Byrd) to the Cincy 6Similar
Q1 8:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
0
8.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
11.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 8TD
9 plays · 75 yds · 3:0389% → 90%
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
11.3%
Michael Warren II run for 16 yds to the Cincy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OWN 41
0
11.0%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 10
OWN 41
+40
11.0%
Michael Warren II run for 40 yds to the ECaro 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+1
10.6%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the ECaro 18Similar
Q1 3:22
2ND & 9
OPP 18
0
10.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q1 3:22
3RD & 9
OPP 18
+16
10.9%
Desmond Ridder run for 16 yds to the ECaro 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:22
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+1
10.6%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd to the ECaro 1Similar
Q1 0:19
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
9.8%
Michael Warren II run for 1 yd for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
9 plays · 32 yds · 0:1911% → 11%
Q1 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
10.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 7 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+2
10.9%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 1
OWN 36
+1
10.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+20
10.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 20 yds to the Cincy 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+3
11.3%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the Cincy 40Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 7
OPP 40
-1
11.3%
Trace Christian run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OPP 41
0
11.1%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi Hatfield, broken up by Darrick ForrestSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 8
OPP 41
0
10.6%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, downed at the Cincy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 10PUNT
12 plays · 31 yds · 3:2789% → 88%
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+5
11.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the Cincy 7Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 5
OWN 7
+12
11.5%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 12 yds to the Cincy 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+6
11.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 6 yds to the Cincy 25Similar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 4
OWN 25
+6
11.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Tre Tucker for 6 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:13
1ST & 10
OWN 31
0
11.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Rashad Medaris, broken up by Daniel CharlesSimilar
Q2 12:13
2ND & 10
OWN 31
+3
11.3%
Gerrid Doaks run for 3 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 7
OWN 34
-5
11.6%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Lorenz Metz) to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 9:43
3RD & 12
OWN 29
+9
12.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the Cincy 38Similar
Q2 9:43
4TH & 3
OWN 38
-5
11.5%
CINCINNATI Penalty, false start (Alec Pierce) to the Cincy 33Similar
Q2 8:46
4TH & 8
OWN 33
0
12.4%
James Smith punt for 42 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 25Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 2:4212% → 21%
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
12.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+15
12.3%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (BRYANT, Coby), PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 15 yards to the ECU42, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-2
13.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 40Similar
Q2 8:39
2ND & 12
OWN 40
+15
12.5%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to OMOTOSHO, Audie, QB hurry by FORREST, D., PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 15 yards to the CIN45, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+16
11.7%
MAUNEY, Dmtrius rush up middle for 1 yard to the CIN44 (BROOKS, Curtis), PENALTY CIN offside defense (SANDERS, Myjai) 5 yards to the CIN40, NO PLAY, PENALTY CIN personal foul (WHITE, Jarell) 16 yards to the CIN24, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+17
13.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 17 yds to the Cincy 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:39
1ST & 7
OWN 0
0
11.7%
PENALTY ECU personal foul off-setting, PENALTY CIN personal foul off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
-5
14.2%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, false start (Demetrius Mauney) to the Cincy 12Similar
Q2 7:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 12
+9
14.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 9 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 7:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
14.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
20.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 12PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:0083% → 82%
Q2 5:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
17.1%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q2 5:57
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
17.3%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 28Similar
Q2 5:57
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
17.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Alec PierceSimilar
Q2 5:57
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
18.1%
James Smith punt for 43 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 29Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13TD
7 plays · 71 yds · 1:5620% → 31%
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OWN 29
+36
20.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 36 yds to the Cincy 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+21
22.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 21 yds to the Cincy 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & 10
OPP 14
0
22.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & 10
OPP 14
+12
22.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 12 yds to the Cincy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:06
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
0
22.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Ahmad GardnerSimilar
Q2 5:06
2ND & GOAL
OPP 2
-1
22.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the Cincy 3Similar
Q2 3:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
31.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 3 yds for a TD (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 14PUNT
5 plays · 26 yds · 0:0071% → 70%
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 0
+25
29.3%
Desmond Ridder run for 25 yds to the Cincy 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:10
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
29.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 1 yd to the Cincy 26Similar
Q2 3:10
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
29.5%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah Deguara, broken up by Davondre RobinsonSimilar
Q2 3:10
3RD & 9
OWN 26
0
30.3%
James Smith punt for 47 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 27Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15PUNT
6 plays · 29 yds · 0:0031% → 30%
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+33
31.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 18 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST down CINCINNATI Penalty, face mask (15 yards) (Coby Bryant) to the Cincy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:49
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+6
33.5%
Holton Ahlers run for 6 yds to the Cincy 34Similar
Q2 1:49
2ND & 4
OPP 34
0
33.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jeremy LewisSimilar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 4
OPP 34
-10
32.9%
AHLERS, Holton deep pass incomplete to OMOTOSHO, Audie, dropped pass (GARDNER, Ahmad), QB hurry by PITTS, Michael, PENALTY ECU holding (FRYE, Fernando) 10 yards to the CIN44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 1:49
3RD & 14
OPP 44
0
31.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake Proehl, broken up by Ahmad GardnerSimilar
Q2 1:49
4TH & 14
OPP 44
0
29.9%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 16INT
2 plays · 9 yds · 0:0067% → 69%
Q2 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+9
33.0%
Gerrid Doaks run for 9 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q2 0:47
2ND & 1
OWN 29
+1
31.2%
Desmond Ridder pass intercepted Daniel Charles return for 1 yd to the Cincy 48Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17FG
6 plays · 38 yds · 0:2236% → 41%
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+33
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 33 yds to the Cincy 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
36.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Blake ProehlSimilar
Q2 0:23
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
36.2%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 0:04
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+5
36.4%
CINCINNATI Penalty, offside defense (Ja'von Hicks) to the Cincy 10Similar
Q2 0:01
3RD & 5
OPP 10
+27
40.5%
Jake Verity 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 19TD
11 plays · 75 yds · 4:1567% → 73%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 0
-15
33.5%
PENALTY ECU illegal block (ANGUS, Alex) 15 yards to the CIN40, 1ST DOWN CIN, PENALTY CIN personal foul (SMITH, Blue) 15 yards to the CIN25, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 6
50
+11
35.6%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Michael Warren II for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
35.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OPP 35
-1
33.5%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 36Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 36
+32
35.4%
Desmond Ridder run for 32 yds to the ECaro 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
37.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 21 yds to the Cincy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
35.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+4
36.0%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+1
33.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 1 yd to the ECaro 3Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
27.1%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 20FG
17 plays · 80 yds · 6:2533% → 50%
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+2
32.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the ECaro 19Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 8
OWN 19
-2
32.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 17Similar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 10
OWN 17
+20
31.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+12
33.6%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OWN 49
-10
35.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the EASTCRLINA 46 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Demetrius Mauney) to the ECaro 39Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 20
OWN 39
+13
33.0%
AHLERS, Holton middle pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J. (BRYANT, Coby), PENALTY CIN pass interference (BRYANT, Coby) 13 yards to the CIN48, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+1
35.8%
Trace Christian run for 1 yd to the Cincy 47Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 9
OPP 47
0
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & 9
OPP 47
+15
34.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds to the Cincy 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+3
36.8%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the Cincy 29Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & 7
OPP 29
+7
36.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 7 yds to the Cincy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+17
36.8%
Jsi Hatfield run for 17 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+2
36.8%
Holton Ahlers run for 2 yds to the Cincy 3Similar
Q3 10:45
2ND & GOAL
OPP 3
0
36.8%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. JohnsonSimilar
Q3 10:45
3RD & GOAL
OPP 3
0
35.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Jsi HatfieldSimilar
Q3 4:20
4TH & GOAL
OPP 3
+20
50.4%
Jake Verity 20 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 21PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0054% → 54%
Q3 4:20
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-5
45.7%
Desmond Ridder run for a loss of 5 yards to the Cincy 20Similar
Q3 4:20
2ND & 15
OWN 20
0
46.4%
Desmond Ridder pass incomplete to Josiah DeguaraSimilar
Q3 4:20
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+13
48.0%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 13 yds to the Cincy 33Similar
Q3 4:20
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
46.5%
James Smith punt for 48 yds, fair catch by Tyler Snead at the ECaro 19Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 22TD
7 plays · 81 yds · 2:3255% → 78%
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 19
+30
54.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 30 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+12
58.4%
Trace Christian run for 12 yds to the Cincy 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+12
58.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 12 yds to the Cincy 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+22
59.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 22 yds to the Cincy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 2:46
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
-4
59.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 4 yards to the Cincy 9Similar
Q3 2:46
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
0
59.3%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q3 0:14
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+9
78.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds for a TD Timeout EAST CAROLINA, clock 00:14 (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 23TD
14 plays · 75 yds · 6:3728% → 53%
Q3 0:14
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
72.5%
Michael Warren II run for 20 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+3
69.4%
Michael Warren II run for 3 yds to the Cincy 48Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 7
OWN 48
+4
68.4%
Michael Warren II run for 4 yds to the ECaro 48Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 3
OPP 48
+5
68.6%
Desmond Ridder run for 5 yds to the ECaro 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+7
67.4%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 7 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 3
OPP 36
+9
66.9%
Michael Warren II run for 9 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+5
65.5%
Gerrid Doaks run for 5 yds to the ECaro 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 5
OPP 22
-2
65.5%
Desmond Ridder sacked by Kendall Futrell for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 24Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 7
OPP 24
+9
67.7%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Alec Pierce for 9 yds to the ECaro 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 15
-1
65.5%
Michael Warren II run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 16Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 16
+7
66.4%
Gerrid Doaks run for 7 yds to the ECaro 9Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 9
+6
67.2%
Gerrid Doaks run for 6 yds to the ECaro 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
+3
47.1%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Josiah Deguara for 3 yds for a TD (Sam Crosa KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24INT TD
9 plays · 38 yds · 3:5970% → 35%
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 21
-1
69.7%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 20Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 11
OWN 20
+15
69.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 15 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
70.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the ECaro 41Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 4
OWN 41
-3
73.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 38Similar
Q4 8:37
3RD & 7
OWN 38
+17
69.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 17 yds to the Cincy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:37
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
74.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 6 yds to the Cincy 39Similar
Q4 8:37
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-2
74.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 41Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 6
OPP 41
+62
35.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 62 yds for a TD (Desmond Ridder pass to Josiah Deguara for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 25FG
10 plays · 65 yds · 3:2830% → 57%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+27
29.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 27 yds to the Cincy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+17
36.0%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 17 yds to the Cincy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-2
38.4%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 2 yards to the Cincy 33Similar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 12
OPP 33
+7
37.3%
Trace Christian run for 7 yds to the Cincy 26Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 5
OPP 26
+10
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 10 yds to the Cincy 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OPP 16
0
38.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler Snead, broken up by Perry YoungSimilar
Q4 4:38
2ND & 10
OPP 16
+6
38.4%
Trace Christian run for 6 yds to the Cincy 10Similar
Q4 4:38
3RD & 4
OPP 10
0
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Coby BryantSimilar
Q4 1:10
4TH & 4
OPP 10
+27
57.1%
Jake Verity 27 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
CINDrive 26FG
12 plays · 50 yds · 1:1055% → 95%
Q4 1:10
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+30
45.0%
Desmond Ridder run for 30 yds to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
37.6%
Desmond Ridder pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:52
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+8
37.9%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 8 yds to the ECaro 27Similar
Q4 0:52
3RD & 2
OPP 27
+4
39.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 4 yds to the ECaro 23 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:52
1ST & 10
OPP 23
+2
36.9%
Michael Warren II run for 2 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q4 0:17
2ND & 8
OPP 21
+6
38.2%
Desmond Ridder pass complete to Malick Mbodj for 6 yds to the ECaro 15Similar
Q4 0:00
3RD & 2
OPP 15
+32
5.0%
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:38
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted for a TD Ahmad Gardner return for 62 yds for a TD (Desmond Ridder pass to Josiah Deguara for Two-Point Conversion)
-39
FG · Q4 0:00
Sam Crosa 32 yd FG GOOD
-35.2
FG · Q4 1:10
Jake Verity 27 yd FG GOOD
+21.4
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com