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HOU

Houston 29 at UCF 44

UCF
2019 · Week 10 · Nov 2, 2019 · FBC Mortgage Stadium
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Win probability · UCF
modelUCF aheadHOU aheadconfidence bandkey playUCF scoreHOU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDFGTDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDTDTDSAFETYEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q1 9:41 · Dane Roy punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 5
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore diff ÷ seconds remaining
+42.0+21.00−21.0−42.0Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 16Pregame prior+39.4Home team on offense−1.2Score differential−0.4Garbage-time factor−0.3Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−0.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−0.3
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 0:48: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 32 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK) — UCF win probability +2.9 pts (now 88%) (top driver: Not a blowout margin).
  2. FG · Q2 0:00: Dalton Witherspoon 41 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +5.9 pts (now 25%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 10:20: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the Houst 43 — UCF win probability +8.7 pts (now 85%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 6:05: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the Houst 34 — UCF win probability +8.4 pts (now 92%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q3 0:49: Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 42 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST down — UCF win probability +4.7 pts (now 98%) (top driver: UCF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
UCF made the numbers' call on 4 of 6HOU made the numbers' call on 5 of 8
  1. Q1 11:21UCF 4th & 7 at UCF 28, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 89.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.9%−0.1
    36% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    89.9%
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:41HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 38, up 7
    Close callPunted · 10.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    10.9%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    10.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 9:09UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 9, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 88.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    88.8%−<0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    88.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 5:29HOU 4th & 10 at UCF 27, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 13.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    13.1%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    13.2%
    62% to make
    Punt
    12.5%−0.8
    average punt
  5. Q2 4:00HOU 4th & 5 at UCF 20, down 4
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 16.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.5%−0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.6%
    75% to make
    Punt
    14.2%−2.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:57UCF 4th & 6 at UCF 29, up 1
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    81.8%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.0%
    average punt
  7. Q2 0:00HOU 4th & 12 at UCF 24, down 1
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 19.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.8%−1.2
    22% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    19.0%
    68% to make
    Punt
    14.3%−4.7
    average punt
  8. Q4 13:23HOU 4th & 2 at HOU 33, down 19
    Close callPunted · 3.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    3.2%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    3.1%−0.1
    average punt
  9. Q4 11:54UCF 4th & 2 at UCF 30, up 19
    Close callPunted · 98.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.6%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%−0.3
    average punt
  10. Q4 7:58HOU 4th & 3 at UCF 29, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 2.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    2.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    2.5%−0.2
    58% to make
    Punt
    1.0%−1.6
    average punt
  11. Q4 6:53UCF 4th & 17 at UCF 22, up 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 98.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%−0.8
    13% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    98.3%
    average punt
  12. Q4 5:33HOU 4th & 15 at HOU 30, down 19
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.2%−0.2
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.3%
    average punt
  13. Q4 2:52HOU 4th & 8 at UCF 8, down 19
    Close callWent for it · 1.8% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    1.7%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goal
    2.0%
    90% to make
    Punt
    0.7%−1.2
    average punt
  14. Q4 1:42UCF 4th & 3 at HOU 45, up 13
    Close callPunted · 97.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    97.6%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    97.1%−0.5
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    97.3%−0.3
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
UCF made the numbers' call on 3 of 3HOU made the numbers' call on 3 of 3
  1. Q1 12:04HOU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    9.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    9.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 4:07UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    87.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    87.5%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 2:13HOU Touchdown, up 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    16.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    16.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q1 0:48UCF Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    86.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 9:16UCF Touchdown, up 3 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    85.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    85.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q4 2:52HOU Touchdown, down 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersWent for two · failed
    Kick
    3.5%−<0.1
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    3.5%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
HOUDrive 1TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 2:518% → 9%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
91.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Mulbah CarSimilar
Q1 14:38
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+5
91.8%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 14:04
3RD & 5
OWN 30
+8
91.7%
Clayton Tune run for 8 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:12
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+26
91.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 26 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:37
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-1
91.2%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 37Similar
Q1 12:04
2ND & 11
OPP 37
+37
90.7%
Mulbah Car run for 37 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 2PUNT
5 plays · 3 yds · 0:3091% → 90%
Q1 11:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
90.7%
Otis Anderson run for no gain to the UCF 25Similar
Q1 11:40
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+3
90.6%
Otis Anderson run for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q1 11:26
3RD & 7
OWN 28
0
90.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q1 11:21
4TH & 7
OWN 28
0
90.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 40 yds, downed at the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 3PUNT
4 plays · 6 yds · 1:3210% → 10%
Q1 11:13
1ST & 10
OWN 32
0
90.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q1 11:00
2ND & 10
OWN 32
+7
90.3%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the Houst 39Similar
Q1 10:00
3RD & 3
OWN 39
-1
89.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 38Similar
Q1 9:41
4TH & 4
OWN 38
0
89.7%
Dane Roy punt for 57 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the UCF 5Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:1590% → 89%
Q1 9:24
1ST & 10
OWN 5
+4
89.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 9Similar
Q1 9:17
2ND & 6
OWN 9
0
89.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:16
3RD & 6
OWN 9
0
89.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Marlon WilliamsSimilar
Q1 9:09
4TH & 6
OWN 9
0
89.4%
Andrew Osteen punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 5FG
7 plays · 27 yds · 3:3111% → 13%
Q1 9:00
1ST & 10
OWN 46
+14
89.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 14 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:20
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+4
88.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 4 yds to the UCF 36Similar
Q1 7:39
2ND & 6
OPP 36
+9
88.3%
Mulbah Car run for 9 yds to the UCF 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 6:59
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+7
87.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Kyle Porter for 7 yds to the UCF 20Similar
Q1 5:50
2ND & 3
OPP 20
-7
87.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Kenny Turnier for a loss of 7 yards to the UCF 27Similar
Q1 5:34
3RD & 10
OPP 27
0
87.2%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 5:29
4TH & 10
OPP 27
+45
87.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 45 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 6TD
8 plays · 75 yds · 1:1487% → 89%
Q1 5:21
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+38
87.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 38 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 5:00
1ST & 10
OPP 37
+4
87.6%
Otis Anderson run for 4 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 4:53
2ND & 6
OPP 33
0
87.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Antwan CollierSimilar
Q1 4:53
3RD & 6
OPP 33
+5
87.5%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Offside (Isaiah Chambers) to the Houst 28Similar
Q1 4:46
3RD & 1
OPP 28
+21
87.5%
Otis Anderson run for 21 yds to the Houst 7 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:17
1ST & GOAL
OPP 7
+1
87.4%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Houst 6Similar
Q1 4:07
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
+6
88.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 6 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 7TD
5 plays · 75 yds · 1:4312% → 16%
Q1 3:56
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
88.1%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the Houst 32Similar
Q1 3:16
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+63
87.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 63 yds to the UCF 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:35
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
86.6%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the UCF 4 UCF Penalty, Personal Foul (Kenny Turnier) to the UCF 2Similar
Q1 2:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds for a TD (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 8TD
7 plays · 75 yds · 1:1484% → 88%
Q1 2:02
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+10
84.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 10 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+7
84.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q1 1:36
2ND & 3
OWN 42
+16
84.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 16 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 42
+8
84.5%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 8 yds to the Houst 34Similar
Q1 0:55
2ND & 2
OPP 34
+2
84.6%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 2 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:48
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+32
87.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 32 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 9INT
12 plays · 65 yds · 5:0614% → 18%
Q1 0:32
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
86.4%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 29Similar
Q1 0:01
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+12
85.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 12 yds to the Houst 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:53
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
85.3%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q2 14:14
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
84.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q2 14:05
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+11
85.0%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 11 yds to the UCF 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:32
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+19
84.4%
Marquez Stevenson run for 19 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:50
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
83.6%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 11:53
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+7
83.0%
Mulbah Car run for 7 yds to the UCF 14 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:24
1ST & 10
OPP 14
-4
82.7%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 18Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 14
OPP 18
+8
82.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 8 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q2 10:26
3RD & 6
OPP 10
0
82.5%
Clayton Tune pass intercepted Nevelle Clarke return for no gain to the UCF 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 10TD
6 plays · 98 yds · 1:0184% → 87%
Q2 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+2
83.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for 2 yds to the UCF 4Similar
Q2 10:00
2ND & 8
OWN 4
+36
83.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 36 yds to the UCF 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:43
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+32
84.1%
Brandon Wimbush run for 32 yds to the Houst 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:32
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+6
84.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the Houst 22Similar
Q2 9:22
2ND & 4
OPP 22
0
84.8%
Darriel Mack Jr. pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q2 9:16
3RD & 4
OPP 22
+22
86.9%
Dillon Gabriel run for 22 yds for a TD (Dylan Barnas KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 11FG
11 plays · 58 yds · 5:0514% → 17%
Q2 9:05
1ST & 10
OWN 22
-2
85.9%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 20Similar
Q2 8:19
2ND & 12
OWN 20
+28
85.7%
Clayton Tune run for 28 yds to the Houst 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:33
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+6
84.4%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the UCF 46Similar
Q2 6:54
2ND & 4
OPP 46
0
83.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 6:50
3RD & 4
OPP 46
+7
84.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 7 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:11
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+14
83.6%
Kyle Porter run for 14 yds to the UCF 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:20
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
82.6%
Clayton Tune run for 4 yds to the UCF 21Similar
Q2 4:47
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+1
82.3%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the UCF 20Similar
Q2 4:04
3RD & 5
OPP 20
0
82.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q2 4:00
4TH & 5
OPP 20
+37
82.9%
Dalton Witherspoon 37 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 12PUNT
6 plays · 4 yds · 0:4684% → 83%
Q2 3:43
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+3
84.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 3 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 3:25
2ND & 7
OWN 28
+6
84.0%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 6 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q2 3:15
3RD & 1
OWN 34
-5
84.1%
UCF Penalty, False Start (Samuel Jackson) to the UCF 29Similar
Q2 3:03
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
83.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Otis AndersonSimilar
Q2 2:57
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
82.6%
Andrew Osteen punt for 38 yds, fair catch by Bryson Smith at the Houst 33Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 13END OF HALF
12 plays · 43 yds · 2:5018% → 25%
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+32
82.5%
Mulbah Car run for 32 yds to the UCF 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:00
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+7
79.5%
Kyle Porter run for 7 yds to the UCF 28Similar
Q2 1:32
2ND & 3
OPP 28
+6
79.0%
Kyle Porter run for 6 yds to the UCF 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:05
1ST & 10
OPP 22
-2
78.8%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 12
OPP 24
-10
79.4%
Tune, Clayton rush for 20 yards to the UCF4, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Murphy, Keenan) 10 yards to the UCF34, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 0:39
2ND & 22
OPP 34
+1
80.1%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the UCF 33Similar
Q2 0:03
3RD & 21
OPP 33
+9
80.2%
Kyle Porter run for 9 yds to the UCF 24Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 12
OPP 24
+41
75.4%
Dalton Witherspoon 41 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 14PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 1:4277% → 77%
Q3 14:36
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
76.8%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 1 yd to the UCF 26Similar
Q3 14:30
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-4
76.6%
Dillon Gabriel run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 22Similar
Q3 14:15
3RD & 13
OWN 22
+5
75.2%
Gabriel, Dillon pass incomplete, PENALTY HOUSTON substitution infraction 5 yards to the UCF27, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:00
3RD & 8
OWN 27
+11
75.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for 11 yds to the UCF 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 38
-5
77.3%
UCF Penalty, False Start (-5 Yards) to the UCF 33Similar
Q3 13:50
1ST & 15
OWN 33
+4
76.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 4 yds to the UCF 37Similar
Q3 13:00
2ND & 11
OWN 37
+5
75.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 5 yds to the UCF 42Similar
Q3 12:54
3RD & 6
OWN 42
0
76.5%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15PUNT
3 plays · -3 yds · 1:2627% → 27%
Q3 12:24
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+7
73.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 7 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 11:58
2ND & 3
OWN 18
-2
73.1%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 16Similar
Q3 10:58
3RD & 5
OWN 16
-8
73.5%
Clayton Tune sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 8Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 16TD
2 plays · 50 yds · 0:1576% → 85%
Q3 10:35
1ST & 10
50
0
76.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Tre NixonSimilar
Q3 10:20
2ND & 10
50
+7
84.9%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the Houst 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17PUNT
3 plays · -8 yds · 1:3018% → 17%
Q3 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
82.0%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 8:57
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-8
81.6%
Clayton Tune sacked by Kalia Davis for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 18Similar
Q3 8:30
3RD & 17
OWN 18
-1
82.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 18TD
4 plays · 37 yds · 1:2785% → 92%
Q3 7:32
1ST & 10
OPP 37
0
84.7%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for no gain to the Houst 37Similar
Q3 6:56
2ND & 10
OPP 37
-10
84.4%
Anderson, Otis rush for 7 yards to the HOUSTON30, PENALTY UCF holding (Brown, Jake) 10 yards to the HOUSTON47, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 6:30
2ND & 20
OPP 47
+1
83.3%
Otis Anderson run for 1 yd to the Houst 46Similar
Q3 6:05
3RD & 19
OPP 46
+12
91.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the Houst 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
6 plays · 10 yds · 1:489% → 9%
Q3 5:10
1ST & 10
OWN 18
+7
91.2%
Chandler Smith run for 7 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q3 4:57
2ND & 3
OWN 25
+7
90.8%
Chandler Smith run for 7 yds to the Houst 32 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:21
1ST & 10
OWN 32
+9
90.7%
Chandler Smith run for 9 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q3 3:38
2ND & 1
OWN 41
-10
90.0%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Singleton, Jeremy, PENALTY HOUSTON holding (Wooten III, Dixie) 10 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 3:33
2ND & 11
OWN 31
0
91.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Chandler SmithSimilar
Q3 3:22
3RD & 11
OWN 31
-3
91.5%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 20TD
6 plays · 73 yds · 1:4493% → 98%
Q3 2:33
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+7
92.6%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Tre Nixon for 7 yds to the UCF 34Similar
Q3 2:16
2ND & 3
OWN 34
+5
92.9%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 5 yds to the UCF 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+5
93.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 5 yds to the UCF 44Similar
Q3 1:35
2ND & 5
OWN 44
-1
93.4%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Gabriel Davis for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 43Similar
Q3 0:55
3RD & 6
OWN 43
+13
93.1%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 13 yds to the Houst 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:49
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+42
97.8%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 42 yds to the Houst 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21PUNT
4 plays · 8 yds · 1:373% → 3%
Q3 0:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-3
96.6%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 22Similar
Q4 14:34
2ND & 13
OWN 22
-3
96.7%
Marquez Stevenson run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 19Similar
Q4 13:53
3RD & 16
OWN 19
+14
96.9%
Clayton Tune run for 14 yds to the Houst 33Similar
Q4 13:23
4TH & 2
OWN 33
0
97.0%
Dane Roy punt for 45 yds, fair catch by Otis Anderson at the UCF 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 22PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 1:1398% → 98%
Q4 13:07
1ST & 10
OWN 22
0
98.2%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for no gain to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 12:50
2ND & 10
OWN 22
+9
98.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Jacob Harris for 9 yds to the UCF 31Similar
Q4 12:34
3RD & 1
OWN 31
-1
98.3%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 11:54
4TH & 2
OWN 30
0
98.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 33 yds, downed at the Houst 37Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23DOWNS
9 plays · 34 yds · 3:443% → 3%
Q4 11:42
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+6
96.7%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 10:47
2ND & 4
OWN 43
0
96.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for no gain to the Houst 43Similar
Q4 10:23
3RD & 4
OWN 43
+9
96.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 9 yds to the UCF 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:00
1ST & 10
OPP 48
+12
96.7%
Mulbah Car run for 12 yds to the UCF 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:35
1ST & 10
OPP 36
-2
96.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for a loss of 2 yards to the UCF 38Similar
Q4 8:52
2ND & 12
OPP 38
-1
96.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Chandler Smith for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 39Similar
Q4 8:13
3RD & 13
OPP 39
+10
96.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 10 yds to the UCF 29Similar
Q4 7:58
4TH & 3
OPP 29
0
96.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Mulbah CarSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 24PUNT
5 plays · -7 yds · 1:0199% → 99%
Q4 7:54
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
99.3%
Dillon Gabriel pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 7:47
2ND & 10
OWN 29
-10
99.2%
Thompson, Bentavious rush for 38 yards to the HOUSTON33, PENALTY UCF holding (Collins, Edward) 10 yards to the UCF19, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 7:19
2ND & 20
OWN 19
+3
99.1%
Adrian Killins Jr. run for 3 yds to the UCF 22Similar
Q4 7:00
3RD & 17
OWN 22
0
99.2%
Dillon Gabriel pass incomplete to Gabriel DavisSimilar
Q4 6:53
4TH & 17
OWN 22
0
99.1%
Andrew Osteen punt for 43 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25FUMBLE
4 plays · -5 yds · 1:153% → 2%
Q4 6:48
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
97.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q4 6:39
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+1
97.1%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 36Similar
Q4 6:00
3RD & 9
OWN 36
-6
98.0%
Clayton Tune sacked by Noah Hancock for a loss of 6 yards to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 5:33
4TH & 15
OWN 30
-11
98.1%
Dane Roy punt for 40 yds , Elijah Benoit returns for a loss of 11 yards to the UCF 19 Elijah Benoit fumbled, recovered by Houst Jordan MooreSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 26TD
7 plays · 19 yds · 2:233% → 5%
Q4 5:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+5
97.3%
Mulbah Car run for 5 yds to the UCF 14Similar
Q4 4:45
2ND & 5
OPP 14
+4
97.4%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the UCF 10Similar
Q4 4:30
3RD & 1
OPP 10
+2
97.5%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the UCF 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 4:00
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
-1
97.4%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the UCF 9Similar
Q4 3:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
97.5%
Chandler Smith run for 1 yd to the UCF 8Similar
Q4 2:57
3RD & GOAL
OPP 8
0
97.6%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 2:52
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+8
94.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 8 yds for a TD (Two-Point Conversion failed )Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 27PUNT
7 plays · 7 yds · 0:4598% → 99%
Q4 2:27
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+7
98.0%
Bentavious Thompson run for 7 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 1:55
2ND & 3
OPP 45
0
98.4%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 1:51
3RD & 3
OPP 45
0
98.5%
Bentavious Thompson run for no gain to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 1:42
4TH & 3
OPP 45
0
98.5%
Andrew Osteen punt for 42 yds, downed at the Houst 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 28SF
2 plays · -3 yds · 0:032% → 2%
Q4 1:37
1ST & 10
OWN 3
0
97.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 1:34
2ND & 10
OWN 3
-3
98.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Brendon Hayes for a loss of 3 yards for a SAFETYSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
UCFDrive 29END OF 4TH QUARTER
4 plays · 4 yds · 1:1199% → 99%
Q4 1:11
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+11
99.2%
Bentavious Thompson run for 11 yds to the UCF 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:40
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-3
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 3 yards to the UCF 30Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 13
OWN 30
-4
99.2%
TEAM run for a loss of 4 yards to the UCF 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q3 10:20
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Marlon Williams for 7 yds to the Houst 43
+8.7
TD · Q3 6:05
Dillon Gabriel pass complete to Otis Anderson for 12 yds to the Houst 34
+8.4
FG · Q2 0:00
Dalton Witherspoon 41 yd FG GOOD
-5.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com