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USF

South Florida 45 at East Carolina 20

ECU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
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Win probability · ECU
modelECU aheadUSF aheadconfidence bandkey playECU scoreUSF score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDTDTDFGFGTDFGTDEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:49 · Jonn Young punt for 48 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 21
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offenseScore differentialGarbage-time factorScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsBlowout margin
+56.5+28.30−28.3−56.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense−18.8Score differential−9.6Garbage-time factor−4.1Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−1.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−1.8Blowout margin−1.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q1 9:50: Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +1.6 pts (now 51%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  2. TD · Q1 0:47: Jacob Mathis 21 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick) — USF win probability +5.3 pts (now 56%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  3. TD · Q2 7:46: Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 18 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +9.3 pts (now 68%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  4. TD · Q2 3:51: Jah'Quez Evans run for 34 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +9.2 pts (now 79%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
  5. TD · Q2 0:19: Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK) — USF win probability +10.3 pts (now 91%) (top driver: USF has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
ECU made the numbers' call on 6 of 7USF made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 9:50ECU 4th & 10 at ECU 39, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    49.6%−0.1
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.7%
    average punt
  2. Q1 6:28USF 4th & 13 at USF 17, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 49.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    48.7%−0.5
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    49.2%
    average punt
  3. Q2 15:00ECU 4th & 4 at USF 41, down 7
    Close callPunted · 46.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    46.3%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    45.2%−1.1
    32% to make
    PuntTheir call
    45.5%−0.8
    average punt
  4. Q2 12:54USF 4th & 22 at ECU 39, up 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 55.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    54.6%−1.0
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    55.5%−0.1
    36% to make
    PuntTheir call
    55.6%
    average punt
  5. Q2 10:42ECU 4th & 18 at ECU 12, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 42.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    41.0%−2.5
    12% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    43.5%
    average punt
  6. Q2 2:49ECU 4th & 4 at ECU 31, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 20.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.3%−0.1
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.4%
    average punt
  7. Q3 15:00USF 4th & 4 at USF 31, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 92.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    92.7%−0.6
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    93.4%
    average punt
  8. Q3 14:02ECU 4th & 1 at USF 1, down 25
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 6.7% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    13.0%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    7.8%−5.3
    94% to make
    Punt
    -3.8%−16.8
    average punt
  9. Q3 0:37USF 4th & 8 at ECU 8, up 25
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 98.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    98.2%−0.2
    26% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    98.4%
    90% to make
    Punt
    96.8%−1.6
    average punt
  10. Q4 15:00ECU 4th & 8 at ECU 12, down 28
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 1.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    1.1%−0.1
    32% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    1.2%
    average punt
  11. Q4 4:58USF 4th & 6 at USF 38, up 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 99.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    99.7%−<0.1
    40% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    99.7%
    average punt
  12. Q4 4:31ECU 4th & 6 at ECU 29, down 32
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 0.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    0.2%−<0.1
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    0.2%
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
ECU made the numbers' call on 1 of 2USF made the numbers' call on 6 of 6
  1. Q1 14:45ECU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    49.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    49.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 9:50USF Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    50.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    50.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:47USF Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    53.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    53.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:46USF Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 3:51USF Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    77.3%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    77.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 0:19USF Touchdown, up 27 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    95.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    95.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 11:57USF Touchdown, up 34 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    99.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    99.7%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q4 0:45ECU Touchdown, down 26 before the try
    Close callKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    0.2%−0.1
    97% to make
    Go for two
    0.3%
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
USFDrive 2TD
13 plays · 75 yds · 4:5551% → 51%
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+19
49.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jordan Cronkrite for 19 yds to the SFla 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+2
49.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 2 yds to the SFla 46Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 8
OWN 46
+9
49.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 9 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+1
49.0%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the ECaro 44Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+7
49.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 7 yds to the ECaro 37Similar
Q1 14:45
3RD & 2
OPP 37
+4
49.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the ECaro 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:45
1ST & 10
OPP 33
0
49.0%
Jordan McCloud pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 10
OPP 33
-10
49.0%
McCLOUD, Jordan rush quarterback keeper for 14 yards to the ECU19, PENALTY USF holding (HARRIS, D) 10 yards to the ECU43, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 14:45
2ND & 20
OPP 43
+17
49.0%
Jordan McCloud run for 17 yds to the ECaro 26Similar
Q1 10:24
3RD & 3
OPP 26
+21
50.8%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 21 yds to the ECaro 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
49.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 5 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 3PUNT
8 plays · 15 yds · 0:0050% → 50%
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 24
-1
50.1%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 1 yard to the ECaro 23Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 11
OWN 23
+5
50.0%
Demetrius Mauney run for 5 yds to the ECaro 28Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 6
OWN 28
+11
49.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 11 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:50
1ST & 10
OWN 39
0
50.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the ECaro 39Similar
Q1 9:50
2ND & 10
OWN 39
-3
50.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 36Similar
Q1 9:50
3RD & 13
OWN 36
+3
49.9%
Holton Ahlers run for 3 yds to the ECaro 39 Holton Ahlers fumbled, forced by Bentlee Sanders,Similar
Q1 9:50
4TH & 10
OWN 39
0
49.8%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 4PUNT
4 plays · -3 yds · 0:0050% → 49%
Q1 6:28
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+2
50.5%
Trevon Sands run for 2 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q1 6:28
2ND & 8
OWN 22
-5
50.5%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Trevon Sands for a loss of 5 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q1 6:28
3RD & 13
OWN 17
0
50.8%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q1 6:28
4TH & 13
OWN 17
+13
51.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 56 yds , Tyler Snead returns for 13 yds to the ECaro 40Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 5FUMBLE
6 plays · 49 yds · 0:0053% → 53%
Q1 4:58
2ND & 8
OPP 14
+3
52.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 3 yds to the SFla 11 Demetrius Mauney fumbled, forced by Patrick Macon, recovered by SFla Devin StudstillSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+15
51.7%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (15 Yards) to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+9
52.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 9 yds to the SFla 36Similar
Q1 4:58
2ND & 1
OPP 36
+6
52.2%
Demetrius Mauney run for 6 yds to the SFla 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 30
+14
52.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 14 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:58
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+2
52.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 2 yds to the SFla 14Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 6TD
6 plays · 89 yds · 2:2749% → 56%
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OWN 11
+54
51.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 39 yds to the 50 yard line for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Warren Saba) to the ECaro 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-5
49.4%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (-5 Yards) to the ECaro 40Similar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 15
OPP 40
+6
50.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 6 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q1 3:14
2ND & 9
OPP 34
+9
49.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 9 yds to the ECaro 25 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:14
1ST & 10
OPP 25
+4
49.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the ECaro 21Similar
Q1 0:47
2ND & 6
OPP 21
+21
44.1%
Jacob Mathis 21 Yd pass from Jordan McCloud (Spencer Shrader Kick)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 7PUNT
9 plays · 34 yds · 0:4746% → 47%
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+12
45.9%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Deondre Farrier for 12 yds to the ECaro 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 0:47
1ST & 10
OWN 37
-3
46.4%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 13
OWN 34
0
45.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 13
OWN 34
+19
45.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 19 yds to the SFla 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+1
47.5%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the SFla 46Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 46
+5
47.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Zech Byrd for 5 yds to the SFla 41Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 4
OPP 41
0
47.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 4
OPP 41
0
46.7%
Jonn Young punt for 41 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 8PUNT
6 plays · 41 yds · 0:0055% → 55%
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+53
45.2%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 53 yds to the ECaro 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 12:54
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+1
43.1%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 1 yd to the ECaro 26Similar
Q2 12:54
2ND & 9
OPP 26
0
43.2%
Jordan McCloud pass incomplete to Eddie McDoomSimilar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 9
OPP 26
-10
43.5%
McCLOUD, Jordan rush quarterback keeper for 16 yards to the ECU10 (McMILLIAN, Ja'Q), PENALTY USF holding (HARRIS, D) 10 yards to the ECU36, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:54
3RD & 19
OPP 36
-3
44.3%
McCLOUD, Jordan sideline pass incomplete to JOINER, Kelley, PENALTY USF illegal forward pass 3 yards to the ECU39, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 12:54
4TH & 22
OPP 39
0
45.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 39 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 9PUNT
4 plays · -8 yds · 0:0045% → 44%
Q2 10:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-9
44.8%
Holton Ahlers sacked by Nick Roberts for a loss of 9 yards to the ECaro 11Similar
Q2 10:42
2ND & 19
OWN 11
+1
44.7%
Holton Ahlers run for 1 yd to the ECaro 12Similar
Q2 10:42
3RD & 18
OWN 12
0
44.0%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete, broken up by Bentlee SandersSimilar
Q2 10:42
4TH & 18
OWN 12
+24
43.7%
Jonn Young punt for 47 yds , KJ Sails returns for 24 yds to the ECaro 35Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 10TD
4 plays · 35 yds · 1:3458% → 68%
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 35
-2
41.7%
Jordan McCloud run for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 37Similar
Q2 9:20
2ND & 12
OPP 37
+13
42.0%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 13 yds to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:20
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+6
41.6%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 4
OPP 18
+18
32.4%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 18 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 11INT
7 plays · 53 yds · 0:0034% → 36%
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 30
+14
34.1%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Jsi Hatfield for 14 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OWN 44
+11
35.4%
Trace Christian run for 11 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to C.J. Johnson, broken up by Devin StudstillSimilar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 10
OPP 45
+32
35.7%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 32 yds to the SFla 13 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:46
1ST & 10
OPP 13
-4
36.3%
Jsi Hatfield run for a loss of 4 yards to the SFla 17Similar
Q2 7:46
2ND & 14
OPP 17
+48
36.2%
Holton Ahlers pass intercepted Greg Reaves return for 48 yds to the ECaro 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 12TD
3 plays · 39 yds · 1:1270% → 79%
Q2 5:03
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+3
30.3%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 3 yds to the ECaro 36Similar
Q2 5:03
2ND & 7
OPP 36
+2
30.3%
Jah'Quez Evans pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 2 yds to the ECaro 34Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 5
OPP 34
+34
21.1%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 34 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 13PUNT
6 plays · 6 yds · 1:0222% → 23%
Q2 3:51
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
21.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tay Williams for a loss of 2 yards to the ECaro 23 EAST CAROLINA Penalty, Offensive holding ( Yards) declinedSimilar
Q2 3:51
2ND & 12
OWN 23
-3
21.7%
Holton Ahlers run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 20Similar
Q2 3:51
3RD & 15
OWN 20
+11
21.5%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 11 yds to the ECaro 31Similar
Q2 2:49
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
23.1%
Jonn Young punt for 48 yds, fair catch by KJ Sails at the SFla 21Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 14TD
10 plays · 79 yds · 2:2276% → 91%
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+30
24.2%
Jordan McCloud run for 30 yds to the ECaro 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:41
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+11
22.6%
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Mitchell Wilcox for 11 yds to the ECaro 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 38
+10
20.8%
McCLOUD, Jordan sideline pass incomplete to WILCOX, Mitch, QB hurry by PURVIS, Chance, PENALTY ECU holding (GORE, Colby) 10 yards to the ECU28, 1ST DOWN USF, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+4
20.1%
Jordan McCloud run for 4 yds to the ECaro 24Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 6
OPP 24
-3
19.7%
Jah'Quez Evans run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 28 Jah'Quez Evans fumbled, forced by Alex Turner, recovered by SFla William AtterburySimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 10
OPP 28
+12
21.3%
Jah'Quez Evans run for 12 yds to the ECaro 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:01
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+6
19.6%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 6 yds to the ECaro 10Similar
Q2 2:01
2ND & 4
OPP 10
0
19.6%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to DeVontres DukesSimilar
Q2 0:19
3RD & 4
OPP 10
+10
9.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 15FG
7 plays · 49 yds · 0:197% → 5%
Q2 0:19
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+16
7.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for 16 yds to the SFla 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:06
1ST & 10
OPP 49
+18
5.9%
Demetrius Mauney run for 18 yds to the SFla 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:01
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+15
5.3%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (15 Yards) to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 0:00
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+33
4.9%
Jake Verity 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 16PUNT
5 plays · 6 yds · 0:0093% → 92%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
7.5%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to Randall St. FelixSimilar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+6
7.6%
Trevon Sands run for 6 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q3 15:00
3RD & 4
OWN 31
0
8.0%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to Kelley Joiner Jr.Similar
Q3 15:00
4TH & 4
OWN 31
0
8.1%
Trent Schneider punt for 43 yds, downed at the ECaro 26Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 17DOWNS
16 plays · 71 yds · 0:005% → 6%
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+6
5.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 6 yds to the ECaro 32Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 4
OWN 32
+1
5.6%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the ECaro 33Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 3
OWN 33
+13
5.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 13 yds to the ECaro 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
5.8%
Demetrius Mauney run for no gain to the ECaro 46Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+9
5.8%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Blake Proehl for 9 yds to the SFla 45Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 1
OPP 45
+2
6.3%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the SFla 43 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 43
+5
6.0%
Trace Christian run for 5 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 5
OPP 38
+1
6.2%
Tay Williams run for 1 yd to the SFla 37Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 4
OPP 37
+5
6.1%
AHLERS, Holton deep out pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., dropped pass (HAMPTON, Mike), PENALTY USF offside defense (VAUGHN, Jason) 5 yards to the USF32, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q3 14:02
1ST & 10
OPP 32
0
6.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony WatleySimilar
Q3 14:02
2ND & 10
OPP 32
+4
6.3%
Trace Christian run for 4 yds to the SFla 28Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & 6
OPP 28
+24
6.2%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 24 yds to the SFla 4 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 14:02
1ST & GOAL
OPP 4
+3
6.5%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 14:02
2ND & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.5%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the SFla 1Similar
Q3 14:02
3RD & GOAL
OPP 1
0
6.5%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Anthony WatleySimilar
Q3 14:02
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
-2
6.3%
Demetrius Mauney run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 3Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 18FG
16 plays · 88 yds · 7:1197% → 99%
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+4
3.2%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 4 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 6
OWN 8
+9
3.3%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 9 yds to the SFla 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+6
3.1%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 6 yds to the SFla 23Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 4
OWN 23
0
3.2%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete to Mitchell WilcoxSimilar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 4
OWN 23
+5
3.2%
Kirk Rygol run for 5 yds to the SFla 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OWN 28
-1
3.1%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 1 yard to the SFla 27Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 11
OWN 27
+2
3.2%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Stanley Clerveaux for 2 yds to the SFla 29Similar
Q3 7:48
3RD & 9
OWN 29
+30
3.2%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 30 yds to the ECaro 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+19
3.0%
Jordan Cronkrite run for 19 yds to the ECaro 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+4
2.8%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the ECaro 18Similar
Q3 7:48
2ND & 6
OPP 18
+12
2.9%
Kirk Rygol run for 12 yds to the ECaro 6 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:48
1ST & GOAL
OPP 6
0
2.8%
Kirk Rygol pass incompleteSimilar
Q3 7:48
2ND & GOAL
OPP 6
-3
2.8%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 3 yards to the ECaro 9Similar
Q3 1:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 9
+1
0.7%
Kirk Rygol run for 1 yd to the ECaro 8Similar
Q3 0:37
4TH & GOAL
OPP 8
+24
1.5%
Spencer Shrader 24 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 19PUNT
5 plays · 2 yds · 0:372% → 2%
Q3 0:37
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+2
1.7%
Trace Christian run for 2 yds to the ECaro 12Similar
Q3 0:37
2ND & 8
OWN 12
0
1.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Bentlee SandersSimilar
Q3 0:37
3RD & 8
OWN 12
0
1.7%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Deondre Farrier, broken up by Devin StudstillSimilar
Q4 15:00
4TH & 8
OWN 12
+54
1.6%
Jonn Young punt for 39 yds, downed at the EASTCRLINA 49 SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, personal foul (Bentlee Sanders) to the SFla 34Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 20TD
7 plays · 66 yds · 2:5099% → 100%
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+4
0.7%
Trevon Sands run for 4 yds to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 6
OWN 38
+7
0.7%
Trevon Sands run for 7 yds to the SFla 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 0
0
0.6%
RYGOL, Kirk sideline pass incomplete to MILLER, Bryce, PENALTY ECU offside defense off-setting, PENALTY USF holding off-setting, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OWN 45
-2
0.7%
Trevon Sands run for a loss of 2 yards to the SFla 43Similar
Q4 14:47
2ND & 12
OWN 43
+13
0.7%
Kirk Rygol run for 13 yds to the ECaro 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 14:47
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+20
0.7%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 5 yds to the ECaro 39 for a 1ST down EAST CAROLINA Penalty, personal foul (Bruce Bivens) to the ECaro 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 24
+24
0.5%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Terrence Horne for 24 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 21FG
16 plays · 58 yds · 4:470% → 0%
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+20
0.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 20 yds to the ECaro 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OWN 45
+20
0.4%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to Tyler Snead for 20 yds to the SFla 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 35
+4
0.4%
Jsi Hatfield run for 4 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 31
+1
0.4%
Demetrius Mauney run for 1 yd to the SFla 30Similar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 5
OPP 30
+15
0.4%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to JOHNSON, C.J., PENALTY USF pass interference (HAMPTON, Mike) 15 yards to the USF15, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
0.4%
Tay Williams run for 4 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 11:57
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
0.4%
Holton Ahlers pass incomplete to Tyler SneadSimilar
Q4 11:57
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+6
0.4%
AHLERS, Holton sideline pass incomplete to BYRD, Zech, PENALTY USF roughing passer (BARBER, Tyrone) 6 yards to the USF5, 1ST DOWN ECU, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 11:57
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
0
0.4%
Trace Christian run for no gain to the SFla 5Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 5
-10
0.3%
AHLERS, Holton pass complete to LEWIS, Jeremy for 5 yards to the USF0, clock 08:33, PENALTY ECU holding (SMITH, D'Ante) 10 yards to the USF15, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 8:33
2ND & GOAL
OPP 15
+5
0.3%
Holton Ahlers run for 5 yds to the SFla 10Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 10
-15
0.3%
EAST CAROLINA Penalty, unsportsmanlike conduct (Holton Ahlers) to the SFla 25Similar
Q4 8:33
3RD & GOAL
OPP 25
+3
0.3%
Holton Ahlers pass complete to C.J. Johnson for 3 yds to the SFla 22Similar
Q4 8:33
4TH & GOAL
OPP 22
+5
0.2%
SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, delay of game (5 Yards) to the SFla 17Similar
Q4 7:10
4TH & 0
OPP 17
+34
0.2%
Jake Verity 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 22PUNT
7 plays · 16 yds · 2:12100% → 100%
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+9
0.2%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 9 yds to the SFla 31Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 1
OWN 31
+3
0.2%
Kirk Rygol pass complete to Jacob Mathis for 3 yds to the SFla 34 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:10
1ST & 10
OWN 34
+3
0.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 3 yds to the SFla 37Similar
Q4 7:10
2ND & 7
OWN 37
+1
0.2%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 1 yd to the SFla 38Similar
Q4 4:58
3RD & 6
OWN 38
0
0.2%
Kirk Rygol pass incomplete, broken up by Kendall FutrellSimilar
Q4 4:58
4TH & 6
OWN 38
+57
0.2%
Trent Schneider punt for 62 yds for a touchback SOUTH FLORIDA Penalty, substitution infraction (-5 Yards)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 4 yds · 0:000% → 0%
Q4 4:31
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+5
0.1%
Tay Williams run for 5 yds to the ECaro 30Similar
Q4 4:31
2ND & 5
OWN 30
+3
0.1%
Tay Williams run for 3 yds to the ECaro 33Similar
Q4 4:31
3RD & 2
OWN 33
-4
0.1%
Tay Williams run for a loss of 4 yards to the ECaro 29Similar
Q4 4:31
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
0.1%
Jonn Young punt for 44 yds , KJ Sails returns for no gain to the SFla 27 KJ Sails fumbled, recovered by ECaro Leroy HenleySimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
ECUDrive 24TD
6 plays · 27 yds · 1:510% → 0%
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 27
+11
0.1%
Bryan Gagg run for 11 yds to the SFla 16 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:36
1ST & 10
OPP 16
+5
0.1%
Tay Williams run for 5 yds to the SFla 11Similar
Q4 2:36
2ND & 5
OPP 11
+3
0.1%
Tay Williams run for 3 yds to the SFla 8Similar
Q4 2:36
3RD & 2
OPP 8
+3
0.1%
Trace Christian run for 3 yds to the SFla 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
0.2%
Bryan Gagg pass complete to Jeremy Lewis for 5 yds for a TD, (Jake Verity KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
USFDrive 25END OF GAME
2 plays · 6 yds · 0:00100% → 100%
Q4 0:45
1ST & 10
OWN 35
+6
0.1%
Kelley Joiner Jr. run for 6 yds to the SFla 41Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q2 0:19
Jordan Cronkrite run for 10 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-10.3
TD · Q2 7:46
Jordan McCloud pass complete to Randall St. Felix for 18 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-9.3
TD · Q2 3:51
Jah'Quez Evans run for 34 yds for a TD, (Spencer Shrader KICK)
-9.2
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com