Try the model
TULN

Tulane 38 at Navy 41

NAVY
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 26, 2019 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium
Speed4x
View as
Download image
Win probability · NAVY
modelNAVY aheadTULN aheadconfidence bandkey playNAVY scoreTULN score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDFGTDTDTDTDTDFGTDTDFGEnd of Game
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q2 2:24 · Owen White punt for 45 yds , Amare Jones returns for 10 yds to the Tulan 49 TULANE Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the Tulan 13
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Home team on offensePregame priorScore diff ÷ offense timeoutsScore differentialGarbage-time factorTime remaining
+25.5+12.80−12.8−25.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 77Home team on offense+8.8Pregame prior+5.1Score diff ÷ offense timeouts+7.2Score differential+1.0Garbage-time factor+3.1Time remaining+0.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 2:03: Justin McMillan pass intercepted for a TD Diego Fagot return for 17 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +11.7 pts (now 88%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  2. TD · Q3 1:59: Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 2 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +17.2 pts (now 41%) (top driver: Deficit strained by the offense's own timeouts).
  3. TD · Q4 5:23: Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) — NAVY win probability +29.0 pts (now 91%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
  4. TD · Q4 1:01: Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK) — TULN win probability +40.0 pts (now 63%) (top driver: TULN has the ball).
  5. FG · Q4 0:00: Bijan Nichols 48 yd FG GOOD — NAVY win probability +29.0 pts (now 96%) (top driver: NAVY has the ball).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
NAVY made the numbers' call on 8 of 8TULN made the numbers' call on 4 of 7
  1. Q1 14:29NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 47, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 63.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    63.3%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    63.2%−0.1
    average punt
  2. Q1 11:49TULN 4th & 3 at TULN 37, down 7
    Close callPunted · 35.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    35.8%
    52% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    35.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  3. Q1 5:09TULN 4th & 2 at TULN 32, down 14
    Close callPunted · 30.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    30.9%
    57% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    30.8%−<0.1
    average punt
  4. Q2 15:00TULN 4th & 13 at TULN 24, down 21
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 19.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.8%−1.2
    19% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    20.0%
    average punt
  5. Q2 9:40NAVY 4th & 5 at TULN 14, up 21
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 86.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.7%−0.2
    39% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    85.9%
    84% to make
    Punt
    81.4%−4.5
    average punt
  6. Q2 5:24NAVY 4th & 16 at NAVY 34, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    79.8%−3.0
    15% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    82.8%
    average punt
  7. Q2 2:24NAVY 4th & 12 at NAVY 39, up 10
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    71.6%−0.9
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    72.5%
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:13TULN 4th & 5 at NAVY 23, down 17
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 17.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    15.9%−2.0
    40% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    17.9%
    70% to make
    Punt
    12.9%−4.9
    average punt
  9. Q3 12:49NAVY 4th & 5 at NAVY 7, up 17
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 84.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    84.3%−0.8
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    85.1%
    average punt
  10. Q3 10:51TULN 4th & 7 at NAVY 19, down 17
    Close callWent for it · 13.3% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    12.4%−0.8
    35% to convert
    Field goal
    13.2%
    77% to make
    Punt
    6.3%−6.9
    average punt
  11. Q3 1:59NAVY 4th & 6 at NAVY 29, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 63.8% before the snap
    Go for it
    64.1%−1.3
    39% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    65.4%
    average punt
  12. Q4 10:17TULN 4th & 11 at NAVY 22, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 31.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    28.4%−4.3
    25% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    32.7%
    72% to make
    Punt
    19.5%−13.2
    average punt
  13. Q4 8:58NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 34, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 57.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    59.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    55.6%−4.1
    average punt
  14. Q4 8:58NAVY 4th & 1 at NAVY 45, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 60.2% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    60.8%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    54.8%−6.0
    average punt
  15. Q4 2:48TULN 4th & 1 at NAVY 32, down 7
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 15.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    14.8%
    71% to convert
    Field goal
    10.0%−4.8
    51% to make
    Punt
    7.0%−7.8
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
NAVY made the numbers' call on 5 of 5TULN made the numbers' call on 5 of 5
  1. Q1 11:49NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    64.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    64.1%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q1 5:09NAVY Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    69.5%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    69.4%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q1 0:17NAVY Touchdown, up 20 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    81.8%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    81.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 7:45TULN Touchdown, down 18 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    20.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    20.1%−0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q2 4:19TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    25.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    24.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q2 2:03NAVY Touchdown, up 16 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    82.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    82.3%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q3 7:43TULN Touchdown, down 11 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    19.1%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    19.0%−0.1
    45% to convert
  8. Q3 1:59TULN Touchdown, down 4 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    31.4%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    31.2%−0.2
    45% to convert
  9. Q4 5:23NAVY Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.7%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.4%−1.3
    45% to convert
  10. Q4 1:01TULN Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    40.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    37.7%−3.2
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
NAVYDrive 1TD
10 plays · 75 yds · 3:1160% → 61%
Q1 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
59.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q1 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+4
59.6%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 6
OWN 29
+9
59.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 9 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:29
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+2
59.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 40Similar
Q1 14:29
2ND & 8
OWN 40
+7
59.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 7 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 14:29
3RD & 1
OWN 47
0
59.6%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Jamale Carothers, broken up by Thakarius KeyesSimilar
Q1 14:29
4TH & 1
OWN 47
+1
59.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 48 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 48
+52
61.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 52 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK) TULANE Penalty, Defensive offside ( Yards) declinedSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 7 yds · 0:0039% → 39%
Q1 11:49
1ST & 10
OWN 30
-1
60.6%
Amare Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Tulan 29Similar
Q1 11:49
2ND & 11
OWN 29
+3
60.7%
Amare Jones run for 3 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q1 11:49
3RD & 8
OWN 32
0
60.7%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 8
OWN 32
+5
60.8%
WRIGHT, R. punt 44 yards to the NAVY24, WINN, Garrett return to the NAVY31 (BRYANT, Larry;MONROE, J.), PENALTY NAVY RU (BROWN, Tony) 5 yards to the TLN37, NO PLAY.Similar
Q1 11:49
4TH & 3
OWN 37
0
60.7%
Ryan Wright punt for 45 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 3TD
11 plays · 82 yds · 5:1461% → 69%
Q1 10:23
1ST & 10
OWN 18
0
61.2%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 18Similar
Q1 10:23
2ND & 10
OWN 18
+8
61.1%
Tazh Maloy run for 8 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 2
OWN 26
+3
62.1%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Navy 29 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 29
0
62.3%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Ryan MitchellSimilar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 10
OWN 29
+4
62.2%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 33Similar
Q1 9:01
3RD & 6
OWN 33
+9
62.1%
Nelson Smith run for 9 yds to the Navy 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+5
62.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q1 9:01
2ND & 5
OWN 47
+14
62.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 14 yds to the Tulan 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 9:01
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+4
62.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Tulan 35Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 6
OPP 35
+35
69.1%
Jamale Carothers run for 35 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 4PUNT
5 plays · 8 yds · 0:0034% → 34%
Q1 5:09
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+3
66.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 3 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q1 5:09
2ND & 7
OWN 27
+5
66.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 5 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q1 5:09
3RD & 2
OWN 32
0
66.3%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Jalen McCleskeySimilar
Q1 5:09
4TH & 2
OWN 32
0
66.5%
Ryan Wright punt for 51 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 5TD
7 plays · 83 yds · 3:1869% → 80%
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 17
+5
68.9%
Malcolm Perry run for 5 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 5
OWN 22
+4
68.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Navy 26Similar
Q1 3:35
3RD & 1
OWN 26
+2
68.5%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+37
68.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Mychal Cooper for 37 yds to the Tulan 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 3:35
1ST & 10
OPP 35
0
70.1%
CJ Williams pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 3:35
2ND & 10
OPP 35
+4
70.0%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q1 0:17
3RD & 6
OPP 31
+31
79.9%
Malcolm Perry pass complete to Jamale Carothers for 31 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 6PUNT
5 plays · -3 yds · 0:1722% → 21%
Q1 0:17
1ST & 10
OWN 27
+4
78.3%
Amare Jones run for 4 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q2 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 31
-2
78.4%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 29Similar
Q2 15:00
3RD & 8
OWN 29
-5
78.9%
Justin McMillan sacked by Jacob Springer for a loss of 5 yards to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 15:00
4TH & 13
OWN 24
0
79.0%
Ryan Wright punt for 48 ydsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 7FG
8 plays · 58 yds · 4:0082% → 87%
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+10
82.3%
Tazh Maloy run for 10 yds to the Navy 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 13:40
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+8
82.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 8 yds to the Navy 46Similar
Q2 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 46
+35
82.8%
Nelson Smith run for 35 yds to the Tulan 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 11:43
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+4
84.8%
Nelson Smith run for 4 yds to the Tulan 15Similar
Q2 11:43
2ND & 6
OPP 15
-2
84.8%
CJ Williams run for a loss of 2 yards to the Tulan 17Similar
Q2 11:43
3RD & 8
OPP 17
+3
84.3%
Nelson Smith run for 3 yds to the Tulan 14Similar
Q2 9:40
4TH & 5
OPP 14
+31
87.3%
Bijan Nichols 31 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 8TD
6 plays · 79 yds · 1:5515% → 25%
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 21
+3
84.7%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Tulan 24Similar
Q2 9:40
2ND & 7
OWN 24
-4
84.7%
Amare Jones run for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 20Similar
Q2 9:40
3RD & 11
OWN 20
+34
84.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 34 yds to the NAVY 46 for a 1ST down NAVY Penalty, Defensive holding ( Yards) declined for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:40
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+45
83.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyrick James for 45 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
74.9%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 9PUNT
8 plays · 9 yds · 2:2185% → 87%
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+15
85.0%
Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 7:45
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+5
85.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 5 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q2 7:45
2ND & 5
OWN 45
-7
85.5%
Jamale Carothers run for a loss of 7 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 12
OWN 38
-5
84.9%
NAVY Penalty, false start (David Forney) to the Navy 33Similar
Q2 7:45
3RD & 17
OWN 33
+1
84.5%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 34Similar
Q2 5:24
4TH & 16
OWN 34
+6
86.8%
Owen White punt for 44 yds , Amare Jones returns for 6 yds to the Tulan 28Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 10TD
4 plays · 72 yds · 0:5421% → 31%
Q2 5:13
1ST & 10
OWN 28
+28
79.1%
Amare Jones run for 28 yds to the Navy 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:43
1ST & 10
OPP 44
+22
77.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 22 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+22
69.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 22 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 11PUNT
7 plays · 14 yds · 1:5574% → 76%
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+16
74.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 16 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 4:19
1ST & 10
OWN 41
-3
75.3%
Malcolm Perry sacked by Marvin Moody for a loss of 3 yards to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 4:19
2ND & 13
OWN 38
0
74.4%
Nelson Smith run for no gain to the Navy 38Similar
Q2 4:19
3RD & 13
OWN 38
+1
73.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 1 yd to the Navy 39Similar
Q2 2:24
4TH & 12
OWN 39
+10
75.8%
Owen White punt for 45 yds , Amare Jones returns for 10 yds to the Tulan 49 TULANE Penalty, personal foul (13 Yards) to the Tulan 13Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 12INT TD
1 play · 0 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+17
87.5%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted for a TD Diego Fagot return for 17 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 13MISSED FG
11 plays · 50 yds · 1:5013% → 19%
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 27
-4
87.4%
Justin McMillan sacked by Nizaire Cromartie for a loss of 4 yards to the Tulan 23Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 14
OWN 23
+4
87.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Tyjae Spears for 4 yds to the Tulan 27Similar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 10
OWN 27
+22
87.8%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 22 yds to the Tulan 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OWN 49
0
86.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell Mooney, broken up by Michael McMorrisSimilar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 10
OWN 49
+11
86.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 11 yds to the Navy 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+12
85.6%
Justin McMillan run for 12 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:03
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+5
82.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 5 yds to the Navy 23Similar
Q2 2:03
2ND & 5
OPP 23
0
79.3%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Ygenio BookerSimilar
Q2 2:03
3RD & 5
OPP 23
0
80.7%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare Jones, broken up by Noruwa ObanorSimilar
Q2 0:13
4TH & 5
OPP 23
+40
81.5%
Merek Glover 40 yd FG MISSEDSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 14END OF HALF
1 play · -1 yds · 0:0086% → 86%
Q2 0:13
1ST & 10
OWN 23
-1
86.1%
TEAM run for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 22Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 15INT
7 plays · 34 yds · 0:0017% → 18%
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+4
83.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Amare Jones for 4 yds to the Tulan 29Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 6
OWN 29
+8
83.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 8 yds to the Tulan 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+10
82.7%
Justin McMillan run for 10 yds to the Tulan 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+6
82.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Navy 47Similar
Q3 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 47
+6
81.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+1
81.6%
Justin McMillan pass intercepted Michael McMorris return for 1 yd to the Navy 2Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 16PUNT
4 plays · 5 yds · 0:0085% → 83%
Q3 12:49
1ST & 10
OWN 2
+3
84.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 3 yds to the Navy 5Similar
Q3 12:49
2ND & 7
OWN 5
+1
84.8%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 6Similar
Q3 12:49
3RD & 6
OWN 6
+1
84.2%
Nelson Smith run for 1 yd to the Navy 7Similar
Q3 12:49
4TH & 5
OWN 7
0
83.4%
Owen White punt for 39 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Navy 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 17TD
7 plays · 46 yds · 3:0815% → 26%
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+1
85.2%
Amare Jones run for 1 yd to the Navy 45Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 9
OPP 45
+23
85.4%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 23 yds to the Navy 22 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:51
1ST & 10
OPP 22
+5
84.0%
Tyjae Spears run for 5 yds to the Navy 17Similar
Q3 10:51
2ND & 5
OPP 17
-4
84.0%
Tyjae Spears run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 21Similar
Q3 10:51
3RD & 9
OPP 21
+2
85.5%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 2 yds to the Navy 19Similar
Q3 10:51
4TH & 7
OPP 19
+14
85.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Will Wallace for 14 yds to the Navy 5 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:43
1ST & GOAL
OPP 5
+5
74.1%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jaetavian Toles for 5 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 18INT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:0079% → 78%
Q3 7:43
1ST & 10
OWN 35
-4
78.7%
Tazh Maloy run for a loss of 4 yards to the Navy 31Similar
Q3 7:43
2ND & 14
OWN 31
+4
78.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 4 yds to the Navy 35Similar
Q3 7:43
3RD & 10
OWN 35
+15
77.6%
Malcolm Perry pass intercepted P.J. Hall return for 15 yds to the Navy 39Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 19TD
9 plays · 39 yds · 4:2024% → 41%
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+2
76.1%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Navy 37Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 37
+7
76.2%
Cameron Carroll run for 7 yds to the Navy 30Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 1
OPP 30
+2
75.8%
Cameron Carroll run for 2 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+1
74.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 1 yd to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 9
OPP 27
+15
74.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 15 yds to the Navy 12 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 6:19
1ST & 10
OPP 12
+2
74.5%
Justin McMillan run for 2 yds to the Navy 10Similar
Q3 6:19
2ND & 8
OPP 10
+6
74.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Navy 4Similar
Q3 6:19
3RD & 2
OPP 4
+2
75.9%
Tyjae Spears run for 2 yds to the Navy 2 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:59
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
58.6%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 2 yds for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 20PUNT
5 plays · 4 yds · 0:0065% → 63%
Q3 1:59
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+2
65.4%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 27Similar
Q3 1:59
2ND & 8
OWN 27
+2
65.4%
Nelson Smith run for 2 yds to the Navy 29Similar
Q3 1:59
3RD & 6
OWN 29
0
64.3%
Malcolm Perry pass incomplete to Mychal CooperSimilar
Q3 1:59
4TH & 6
OWN 29
0
62.6%
Owen White punt for 61 yds, downed at the Tulan 10Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 21FG
12 plays · 68 yds · 5:1634% → 46%
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 10
+18
65.6%
Cameron Carroll run for 18 yds to the Tulan 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:33
1ST & 10
OWN 28
0
64.8%
Justin McMillan run for no gain to the Tulan 28Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 10
OWN 28
+27
65.7%
Cameron Carroll run for 27 yds to the Navy 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+6
60.3%
Tyjae Spears run for 6 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 4
OPP 39
-5
59.8%
TULANE Penalty, false start (Jaetavian Toles) to the Navy 44Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 9
OPP 44
+13
60.4%
Justin McMillan run for 13 yds to the Navy 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 31
-1
58.8%
Justin McMillan sacked by J'arius Warren and Jackson Pittman for a loss of 1 yard to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 11
OPP 32
+11
58.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jacob Robertson Jr. for 11 yds to the Navy 21 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 15:00
1ST & 10
OPP 21
-2
58.3%
Justin McMillan run for a loss of 2 yards to the Navy 23Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 12
OPP 23
-12
58.9%
Justin McMillan sacked by Diego Fagot for a loss of 12 yards to the Navy 35Similar
Q4 15:00
3RD & 24
OPP 35
+13
64.2%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Ygenio Booker for 13 yds to the Navy 22Similar
Q4 10:17
4TH & 11
OPP 22
+39
53.6%
Merek Glover 39 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 22TD
12 plays · 75 yds · 4:5458% → 91%
Q4 10:17
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
57.9%
Jamale Carothers run for 7 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 10:17
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+2
60.7%
Keoni-Kordell Makekau run for 2 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 10:17
3RD & 1
OWN 34
0
58.9%
Jamale Carothers run for no gain to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 34
+2
54.7%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+3
58.6%
Jamale Carothers run for 3 yds to the Navy 39Similar
Q4 8:58
2ND & 7
OWN 39
+4
60.4%
Jamale Carothers run for 4 yds to the Navy 43Similar
Q4 8:58
3RD & 3
OWN 43
+2
59.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 2 yds to the Navy 45Similar
Q4 8:58
4TH & 1
OWN 45
+2
58.0%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 8:58
1ST & 10
OWN 47
+38
61.8%
Malcolm Perry run for 38 yds to the Tulan 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:23
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+15
90.8%
Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
TULNDrive 23TD
15 plays · 77 yds · 4:2316% → 63%
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+9
84.5%
Tyjae Spears run for 9 yds to the Tulan 32Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 1
OWN 32
+12
81.3%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Jalen McCleskey for 12 yds to the Tulan 44 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OWN 44
0
81.0%
Tyjae Spears run for no gain to the Tulan 44Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 10
OWN 44
+15
81.9%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 15 yds to the Navy 41 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 5:24
1ST & 10
OPP 41
+3
79.4%
Justin McMillan run for 3 yds to the Navy 38Similar
Q4 5:24
2ND & 7
OPP 38
0
79.4%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Amare JonesSimilar
Q4 5:24
3RD & 7
OPP 38
+6
80.3%
Justin McMillan run for 6 yds to the Navy 32Similar
Q4 2:48
4TH & 1
OPP 32
+4
82.4%
Cameron Carroll run for 4 yds to the Navy 28 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 2:48
1ST & 10
OPP 28
+8
78.9%
Cameron Carroll run for 8 yds to the Navy 20Similar
Q4 2:48
2ND & 2
OPP 20
0
78.9%
Justin McMillan pass incomplete to Darnell MooneySimilar
Q4 2:48
3RD & 2
OPP 20
+19
80.7%
Justin McMillan pass complete to Darnell Mooney for 19 yds to the Navy 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
36.9%
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
NAVYDrive 24FG
11 plays · 44 yds · 1:0155% → 96%
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+9
55.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 9 yds to the Navy 34Similar
Q4 1:01
2ND & 1
OWN 34
+2
58.6%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Navy 36 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 36
+10
57.3%
Malcolm Perry run for 10 yds to the Navy 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:01
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
60.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:22
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+21
59.1%
Malcolm Perry run for 21 yds to the Tulan 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:22
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+2
66.2%
Malcolm Perry run for 2 yds to the Tulan 31Similar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 8
OPP 31
+48
95.6%
Bijan Nichols 48 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 1:01
Justin McMillan run for 1 yd for a TD, (Merek Glover KICK)
-40
TD · Q4 5:23
Jamale Carothers run for 15 yds for a TD, (Bijan Nichols KICK)
+29
FG · Q4 0:00
Bijan Nichols 48 yd FG GOOD
+29
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com