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SMU

SMU 34 at Houston 31

HOU
2019 · Week 9 · Oct 24, 2019 · TDECU Stadium
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Win probability · HOU
modelHOU aheadSMU aheadconfidence bandkey playHOU scoreSMU score
0%25%50%75%100%Q1Q2Q3Q4TDTDTDTDFGFGTDTDFGFGFGFGTDEnd of GameFG+2.9HOU 23.8%Dalton Witherspoon 40 yd FG GOODAWAY 31 - HOME 23 · Q4 14:10
What if? - hover the chart or a play below, then change how it went
Q4 14:10 · Dalton Witherspoon 40 yd FG GOOD
Driver values - Δ win prob, pts
Pregame priorHome team on offenseGarbage-time factorScore differentialScore diff ÷ seconds remainingScore diff ÷ offense timeouts
+33.5+16.80−16.8−33.5Q1Q2Q3Q4Play 144Pregame prior−7.5Home team on offense−11.1Garbage-time factor−5.4Score differential−6.3Score diff ÷ seconds remaining−2.5Score diff ÷ offense timeouts−2.0
This game in five plays
  1. TD · Q2 10:41: Xavier Jones run for 62 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +7.0 pts (now 77%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  2. FG · Q2 1:56: Dalton Witherspoon 25 yd FG GOOD — HOU win probability +6.3 pts (now 21%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  3. TD · Q3 14:13: Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK) — SMU win probability +9.9 pts (now 87%) (top driver: SMU has the ball).
  4. TD · Q3 14:01: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 75 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK) — HOU win probability +8.5 pts (now 23%) (top driver: HOU has the ball).
  5. TD · Q4 4:47: Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 96 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune pass to Christian Trahan for Two-Point Conversion) — HOU win probability +30.0 pts (now 36%) (top driver: Blowout context favors the defense).
Was that the right call?

Each option's modeled win probability for the team making the call, from the score, clock and field position before the play. Gaps under one point are close calls. How this works

Fourth downs
HOU made the numbers' call on 7 of 10SMU made the numbers' call on 8 of 10
  1. Q1 11:23SMU 4th & 1 at HOU 1, tied
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 76.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    76.4%
    59% to convert
    Field goal
    76.3%−0.2
    94% to make
    Punt
    75.8%−0.7
    average punt
  2. Q1 9:45HOU 4th & 6 at HOU 24, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 24.2% before the snap
    Go for it
    24.2%−0.1
    38% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    24.3%
    average punt
  3. Q1 6:23SMU 4th & 20 at HOU 40, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 73.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    73.5%−0.3
    10% to convert
    Field goal
    73.7%−0.1
    34% to make
    PuntTheir call
    73.8%
    average punt
  4. Q1 3:36HOU 4th & 8 at HOU 37, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 27.1% before the snap
    Go for it
    27.1%−0.2
    34% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    27.3%
    average punt
  5. Q2 13:15SMU 4th & 15 at SMU 21, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 68.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.1%−1.5
    16% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    69.6%
    average punt
  6. Q2 11:10HOU 4th & 19 at HOU 33, tied
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 30.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    29.9%−1.3
    11% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    31.2%
    average punt
  7. Q2 1:56HOU 4th & 3 at SMU 8, down 14
    Close callKicked a field goal · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    18.4%
    47% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    18.0%−0.4
    90% to make
    Punt
    15.2%−3.2
    average punt
  8. Q2 0:00HOU 4th & 8 at SMU 17, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 21.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    20.4%−0.6
    32% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    20.9%
    80% to make
    Punt
    16.4%−4.5
    average punt
  9. Q3 10:56SMU 4th & 6 at HOU 6, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 78.3% before the snap
    Go for it
    77.7%−0.2
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    77.9%
    91% to make
    Punt
    72.8%−5.1
    average punt
  10. Q3 7:30HOU 4th & 12 at SMU 49, down 11
    Numbers favored punt by 1.2 ptsWent for it · 18.5% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    18.1%−1.2
    23% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    19.3%
    average punt
  11. Q3 4:49HOU 4th & 22 at SMU 49, down 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 17.7% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.7%−2.1
    8% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    18.7%
    average punt
  12. Q3 2:46SMU 4th & 1 at SMU 42, up 11
    Numbers favored go for it by 1.5 ptsPunted · 81.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.1%
    70% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    80.6%−1.5
    average punt
  13. Q4 14:10HOU 4th & 2 at SMU 23, down 11
    Close callKicked a field goal · 17.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    17.7%
    57% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    16.8%−0.9
    70% to make
    Punt
    11.2%−6.5
    average punt
  14. Q4 11:58SMU 4th & 13 at SMU 38, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 82.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    80.5%−2.6
    20% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    83.1%
    average punt
  15. Q4 10:56HOU 4th & 10 at HOU 48, down 8
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 18.4% before the snap
    Go for it
    16.6%−0.9
    29% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    17.5%
    average punt
  16. Q4 8:56SMU 4th & 8 at HOU 15, up 8
    Agrees with the numbersKicked a field goal · 84.5% before the snap
    Go for it
    82.8%−1.1
    31% to convert
    Field goalTheir call
    84.0%
    83% to make
    Punt
    75.0%−9.0
    average punt
  17. Q4 4:59SMU 4th & 23 at HOU 44, up 11
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 90.9% before the snap
    Go for it
    89.7%−1.1
    7% to convert
    Field goal
    90.4%−0.5
    27% to make
    PuntTheir call
    90.9%
    average punt
  18. Q4 2:21SMU 4th & 10 at SMU 24, up 3
    Agrees with the numbersPunted · 76.0% before the snap
    Go for it
    68.7%−5.8
    28% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    PuntTheir call
    74.4%
    average punt
  19. Q4 1:28HOU 4th & 4 at HOU 45, down 3
    Agrees with the numbersWent for it · 31.0% before the snap
    Go for itTheir call
    23.6%
    48% to convert
    Field goal
    Out of range
    Punt
    15.6%−8.0
    average punt
  20. Q4 0:20SMU 4th & 10 at HOU 45, up 3
    Numbers favored field goal by 2.4 ptsPunted · 86.6% before the snap
    Go for it
    85.9%−1.7
    30% to convert
    Field goal
    87.6%
    25% to make
    PuntTheir call
    85.2%−2.4
    average punt
After touchdowns: kick or go for two?
HOU made the numbers' call on 2 of 3SMU made the numbers' call on 4 of 4
  1. Q1 1:33SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    74.6%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    74.6%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  2. Q2 14:28HOU Touchdown, down 1 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    29.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    28.9%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  3. Q2 10:41SMU Touchdown, up 6 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    73.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    73.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  4. Q2 8:14SMU Touchdown, up 13 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    79.2%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    79.2%−<0.1
    45% to convert
  5. Q3 14:13SMU Touchdown, up 14 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    84.0%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    83.9%−0.1
    45% to convert
  6. Q3 14:01HOU Touchdown, down 9 before the try
    Agrees with the numbersKicked · made
    KickTheir call
    23.9%
    97% to make
    Go for two
    23.8%−0.1
    45% to convert
  7. Q4 4:47HOU Touchdown, down 5 before the try
    Close callWent for two · converted
    Kick
    21.8%
    97% to make
    Go for twoTheir call
    21.7%−0.1
    45% to convert
Play by play - hover to pin the curve, click to jump
Download drive chart
SMUDrive 1DOWNS
12 plays · 74 yds · 3:3278% → 77%
Q1 14:55
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+7
21.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 7 yds to the SMU 32Similar
Q1 14:25
2ND & 3
OWN 32
+8
21.8%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Reggie Roberson Jr. for 8 yds to the SMU 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 40
+8
22.0%
Xavier Jones run for 8 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q1 13:40
2ND & 2
OWN 48
+12
22.1%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 12 yds to the Houst 40 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:15
1ST & 10
OPP 40
+13
22.3%
Xavier Jones run for 13 yds to the Houst 27 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 13:05
1ST & 10
OPP 27
0
22.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 12:55
2ND & 10
OPP 17
+19
22.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 10 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Face Mask (9 yards) (Deontay Anderson) to the Houst 8 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 12:45
1ST & GOAL
OPP 8
0
22.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Jordan MooreSimilar
Q1 12:35
2ND & GOAL
OPP 8
+1
22.5%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Houst 7Similar
Q1 12:10
3RD & GOAL
OPP 7
+6
22.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the Houst 1Similar
Q1 11:23
4TH & GOAL
OPP 1
0
23.2%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Reggie Roberson Jr.Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 2PUNT
6 plays · 23 yds · 1:1024% → 24%
Q1 10:55
1ST & 10
OWN 1
+19
23.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 19 yds to the Houst 20 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 20
+4
23.8%
Kyle Porter run for 4 yds to the Houst 24Similar
Q1 10:01
2ND & 6
OWN 24
0
24.1%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 9:57
3RD & 6
OWN 24
0
23.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q1 9:45
4TH & 6
OWN 24
+20
23.9%
Dane Roy punt for 53 yds , James Proche returns for 20 yds to the SMU 43Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 3PUNT
9 plays · 17 yds · 3:1776% → 74%
Q1 9:40
1ST & 10
OWN 43
+6
23.8%
Reggie Roberson Jr. run for 6 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q1 9:20
2ND & 4
OWN 49
+2
23.9%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Houst 49Similar
Q1 8:45
3RD & 2
OPP 49
+5
24.1%
Jones, Xavier rush for no gain to the HOUSTON49, PENALTY HOUSTON offside (Hall, Logan) 5 yards to the HOUSTON44, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q1 8:25
1ST & 10
OPP 44
0
24.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Kylen GransonSimilar
Q1 8:15
2ND & 10
OPP 44
+14
24.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Ke'Mon Freeman for 14 yds to the Houst 30 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 8:00
1ST & 10
OPP 30
-3
24.2%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for a loss of 3 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 7:25
2ND & 13
OPP 33
0
24.4%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 33Similar
Q1 6:45
3RD & 13
OPP 33
-7
25.2%
Shane Buechele sacked by Payton Turner for a loss of 7 yards to the Houst 40Similar
Q1 6:23
4TH & 20
OPP 40
0
25.9%
Shane Buechele punt for 40 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 4PUNT
8 plays · 17 yds · 2:3526% → 27%
Q1 6:11
1ST & 10
OWN 20
-10
25.8%
Marquez Stevenson run for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 10Similar
Q1 5:31
2ND & 20
OWN 10
+8
26.1%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the Houst 18Similar
Q1 5:20
3RD & 12
OWN 18
+17
25.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 17 yds to the Houst 35 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 4:29
1ST & 10
OWN 35
0
26.9%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q1 4:10
2ND & 10
OWN 35
+2
26.9%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the Houst 37Similar
Q1 3:44
3RD & 8
OWN 37
0
27.0%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q1 3:36
4TH & 8
OWN 37
0
26.7%
Dane Roy punt for 48 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 5TD
8 plays · 85 yds · 1:5273% → 77%
Q1 3:25
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+3
27.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 3 yds to the SMU 18Similar
Q1 3:05
2ND & 7
OWN 18
+1
27.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 19Similar
Q1 2:45
3RD & 6
OPP 48
+48
26.4%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 33 yds to the HOUSTON 48 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Roughing Passer (15 Yards) to the Houst 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q1 2:07
1ST & 10
OPP 33
+3
25.8%
Xavier Jones run for 3 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q1 2:00
2ND & 7
OPP 30
+15
25.7%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Gailliard, Myron, PENALTY HOUSTON personal foul (Smith III, Willie) 15 yards to the HOUSTON15, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q1 1:43
1ST & 10
OPP 15
0
25.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Ryan BeckerSimilar
Q1 1:37
2ND & 10
OPP 15
0
25.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q1 1:33
3RD & 10
OPP 15
+15
22.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 15 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 6TD
7 plays · 88 yds · 1:5724% → 32%
Q1 1:25
1ST & 10
OWN 12
+1
23.8%
Mulbah Car run for 1 yd to the Houst 13Similar
Q1 0:45
2ND & 9
OWN 13
-4
23.8%
Clayton Tune sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 4 yards to the Houst 9Similar
Q1 0:13
3RD & 13
OWN 9
+15
23.4%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Trahan, Christian, PENALTY SMU personal foul (Robinson, Delano) 15 yards to the HOUSTON24, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q1 0:05
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+31
24.1%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 31 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:50
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+44
25.5%
Mulbah Car run for 44 yds to the SMU 1 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 14:28
1ST & GOAL
OPP 1
+1
31.5%
Bryson Smith run for 1 yd for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 7PUNT
7 plays · -5 yds · 1:1072% → 70%
Q2 14:25
1ST & 10
OWN 26
+5
28.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 5 yds to the SMU 31Similar
Q2 13:55
2ND & 5
OWN 31
-10
28.4%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Rice, Rashee for 14 yards to the SMU45, PENALTY SMU holding (Ali, Alan) 10 yards to the SMU21, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 13:32
2ND & 15
OWN 21
0
29.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q2 13:24
3RD & 15
OWN 21
0
29.8%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q2 13:15
4TH & 15
OWN 21
+3
30.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 40 yds , Bryson Smith returns for 3 yds to the Houst 42Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 8PUNT
4 plays · -9 yds · 1:5032% → 31%
Q2 13:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
+1
32.0%
Bryson Smith run for 1 yd to the Houst 43Similar
Q2 12:25
2ND & 9
OWN 43
-2
32.3%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 41Similar
Q2 12:00
3RD & 11
OWN 41
-8
31.1%
Clayton Tune sacked by Richard McBryde for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 33Similar
Q2 11:10
4TH & 19
OWN 33
0
30.6%
Dane Roy punt for 50 yds, downed at the SMU 17Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 9TD
2 plays · 83 yds · 0:2470% → 77%
Q2 11:05
1ST & 10
OWN 23
+21
30.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 6 yds to the SMU 23 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Personal Foul (15 Yards) to the SMU 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:41
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+62
23.3%
Xavier Jones run for 62 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 10FUMBLE
5 plays · 19 yds · 1:1824% → 26%
Q2 10:35
1ST & 10
OWN 25
0
23.9%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
Q2 10:25
2ND & 10
OWN 25
+13
23.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 13 yds to the Houst 38 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 10:00
1ST & 10
OWN 38
+15
24.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 15 yds to the SMU 47 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 9:17
1ST & 10
OPP 47
+12
25.5%
Bryson Smith run for a loss of 9 yards to the Houst 32 Bryson Smith fumbled, recovered by SMU , return for 12 yds to the Houst 32Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 11TD
5 plays · 32 yds · 0:5477% → 83%
Q2 9:08
1ST & 10
OPP 32
+2
22.6%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds to the Houst 30Similar
Q2 8:55
2ND & 8
OPP 30
+5
22.5%
Xavier Jones run for 5 yds to the Houst 25Similar
Q2 8:26
3RD & 3
OPP 25
+14
22.8%
Xavier Jones run for 14 yds to the Houst 11 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 8:17
1ST & 10
OPP 11
0
22.5%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Myron GailliardSimilar
Q2 8:14
2ND & 10
OPP 11
+11
17.3%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 11 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 12FG
18 plays · 67 yds · 6:0415% → 21%
Q2 8:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
-2
15.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for a loss of 2 yards to the Houst 23Similar
Q2 7:25
2ND & 12
OWN 23
+3
15.0%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the Houst 26Similar
Q2 6:49
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+5
14.7%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Bradley, Tre'von, PENALTY SMU offside 5 yards to the HOUSTON31, NO PLAY.Similar
Q2 6:30
3RD & 4
OWN 31
+11
14.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Courtney Lark for 11 yds to the Houst 42 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 6:00
1ST & 10
OWN 42
-8
15.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Trevor Denbow and Garrett Madison for a loss of 8 yards to the Houst 34Similar
Q2 5:29
2ND & 18
OWN 34
+15
14.2%
SMU Penalty, Defensive Pass Interference (Trevor Denbow) to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 5:25
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+8
15.2%
Kyle Porter run for 8 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q2 5:00
2ND & 2
OPP 43
+1
15.2%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the SMU 42Similar
Q2 4:15
3RD & 1
OPP 42
+3
14.6%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the SMU 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 3:45
1ST & 10
OPP 39
+6
15.3%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the SMU 33Similar
Q2 3:14
2ND & 4
OPP 33
0
15.6%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q2 3:06
3RD & 4
OPP 33
+18
15.2%
Mulbah Car run for 18 yds to the SMU 15 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 2:50
1ST & 10
OPP 15
+4
15.4%
Mulbah Car run for 4 yds to the SMU 11Similar
Q2 2:06
2ND & 6
OPP 11
0
15.1%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Tre'von BradleySimilar
Q2 2:01
3RD & 6
OPP 11
+3
14.7%
Kyle Porter run for 3 yds to the SMU 8Similar
Q2 1:56
4TH & 3
OPP 8
+25
21.0%
Dalton Witherspoon 25 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 13INT
2 plays · 0 yds · 0:0080% → 80%
Q2 1:46
1ST & 10
OWN 36
0
20.4%
Shane Buechele pass intercepted Amaud Willis-Dalton return for no gain to the SMU 46Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 14END OF HALF
5 plays · 29 yds · 1:3522% → 23%
Q2 1:35
1ST & 10
OPP 46
+27
21.9%
Mulbah Car run for 27 yds to the SMU 19 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q2 1:15
1ST & 10
OPP 19
+2
22.9%
Clayton Tune run for 2 yds to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 0:55
2ND & 8
OPP 17
+2
23.0%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the SMU 15Similar
Q2 0:25
3RD & 6
OPP 15
-2
21.8%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 2 yards to the SMU 17Similar
Q2 0:00
4TH & 8
OPP 17
+34
23.2%
Dalton Witherspoon 34 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 15FUMBLE
3 plays · -23 yds · 0:2823% → 23%
Q3 14:45
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
23.3%
Kyle Porter run for 1 yd to the Houst 26Similar
Q3 14:17
2ND & 9
OWN 26
-24
23.3%
Clayton Tune sacked by Patrick Nelson for a loss of 24 yards to the Houst 2 Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by SMU Richard McBryde , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 16TD
1 play · 2 yds · 0:0087% → 87%
Q3 14:13
1ST & GOAL
OPP 2
+2
13.4%
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 17TD
2 plays · 75 yds · 0:0023% → 23%
Q3 14:01
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+75
23.3%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 75 yds for a TD, (Dalton Witherspoon KICK)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 18FG
9 plays · 53 yds · 2:5980% → 80%
Q3 13:55
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+4
20.5%
Shane Buechele run for 4 yds to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 13:30
2ND & 6
OWN 45
0
20.5%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for no gain to the SMU 45Similar
Q3 12:55
3RD & 6
OWN 45
+52
20.9%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 52 yds to the Houst 3 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 12:15
1ST & GOAL
OPP 3
-1
19.9%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 4Similar
Q3 11:40
2ND & GOAL
OPP 4
-5
19.9%
SMU Penalty, False Start (Kylen Granson) to the Houst 9Similar
Q3 11:25
2ND & GOAL
OPP 9
+3
19.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 3 yds to the Houst 6Similar
Q3 10:59
3RD & GOAL
OPP 6
0
20.4%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Rashee RiceSimilar
Q3 10:56
4TH & GOAL
OPP 6
+23
19.6%
Kevin Robledo 23 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 19PUNT
15 plays · 26 yds · 5:5119% → 17%
Q3 10:40
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+21
19.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Christian Trahan for 21 yds to the Houst 46 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 10:22
1ST & 10
OWN 46
0
20.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez StevensonSimilar
Q3 10:10
2ND & 10
OWN 46
+6
20.1%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the SMU 48Similar
Q3 10:00
3RD & 4
OPP 48
-10
20.7%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (Dixie Wooten III) to the Houst 42Similar
Q3 9:30
3RD & 14
OWN 42
+11
18.6%
Tune, Clayton pass incomplete to Stevenson, Marquez, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Denbow, Trevor) 11 yards to the SMU47, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN HOUSTON.Similar
Q3 9:00
1ST & 10
OPP 47
-10
21.0%
Clayton Tune sacked by Delontae Scott and Patrick Nelson for a loss of 10 yards to the Houst 43Similar
Q3 8:45
2ND & 20
OWN 43
-5
19.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Mulbah Car for a loss of 5 yards to the Houst 38Similar
Q3 8:00
3RD & 25
OWN 38
+13
18.4%
Mulbah Car run for 13 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 7:30
4TH & 12
OPP 49
+12
18.1%
Donavan Mutin run for 12 yds to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 7:15
1ST & 10
OPP 37
-5
21.2%
Clayton Tune sacked by Pono Davis and Delontae Scott for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 6:45
2ND & 15
OPP 42
0
20.3%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 6:00
3RD & 15
OPP 42
-10
19.4%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 48Similar
Q3 5:30
3RD & 25
OWN 48
+3
18.6%
Mulbah Car run for 3 yds to the SMU 49Similar
Q3 4:49
4TH & 22
OPP 49
0
17.3%
Dane Roy punt for 29 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the SMU 20Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 20PUNT
6 plays · 22 yds · 1:5682% → 82%
Q3 4:42
1ST & 10
OWN 20
0
18.1%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to Shane BuecheleSimilar
Q3 4:36
2ND & 10
OWN 20
+13
18.2%
Xavier Jones run for 13 yds to the SMU 33 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 4:09
1ST & 10
OWN 33
+4
17.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Myron Gailliard for 4 yds to the SMU 37Similar
Q3 4:00
2ND & 6
OWN 37
+1
17.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 38Similar
Q3 3:25
3RD & 5
OWN 38
+4
16.7%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 4 yds to the SMU 42Similar
Q3 2:46
4TH & 1
OWN 42
0
17.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 52 yds, downed at the Houst 6Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 21FG
10 plays · 71 yds · 3:3017% → 24%
Q3 2:40
1ST & 10
OWN 6
+2
17.2%
Mulbah Car run for 2 yds to the Houst 8Similar
Q3 2:10
2ND & 8
OWN 8
+4
16.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 4 yds to the Houst 12Similar
Q3 1:40
3RD & 4
OWN 12
+37
15.9%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 37 yds to the Houst 49 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 1:00
1ST & 10
OWN 49
+1
18.8%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 1 yd to the 50 yard lineSimilar
Q3 0:30
2ND & 9
50
+19
18.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 19 yds to the SMU 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q3 0:17
1ST & 10
OPP 31
+9
22.2%
Mulbah Car run for 9 yds to the SMU 22Similar
Q4 15:00
2ND & 1
OPP 22
0
22.5%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy Singleton, broken up by Chace CromartieSimilar
Q4 14:50
3RD & 1
OPP 22
-1
20.9%
Mulbah Car run for a loss of 1 yard to the SMU 23Similar
Q4 14:10
4TH & 2
OPP 23
+40
23.8%
Dalton Witherspoon 40 yd FG GOODSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 22FUMBLE
8 plays · 13 yds · 2:0281% → 82%
Q4 14:00
1ST & 10
OWN 25
+1
19.1%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 26Similar
Q4 13:50
2ND & 9
OWN 26
0
19.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 13:35
3RD & 9
OWN 26
+15
18.7%
Buechele, Shane pass incomplete to Rice, Rashee, PENALTY HOUSTON pass interference 15 yards to the SMU41, NO PLAY, 1ST DOWN SMU.Similar
Q4 13:20
1ST & 10
OWN 41
+2
16.2%
James Proche run for 2 yds to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 13:00
2ND & 8
OWN 43
0
15.5%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 43Similar
Q4 12:40
3RD & 8
OWN 43
-5
15.9%
Shane Buechele sacked by Derek Parish for a loss of 5 yards to the SMU 38Similar
Q4 11:58
4TH & 13
OWN 38
+13
18.4%
Trevor Denbow punt for 27 yds , Damarion Williams returns for 13 yds to the Houst 48 Damarion Williams fumbled, recovered by HoustSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 23PUNT
4 plays · 0 yds · 0:4423% → 20%
Q4 11:40
1ST & 10
OWN 48
0
22.6%
Mulbah Car run for no gain to the Houst 48Similar
Q4 11:09
2ND & 10
OWN 48
0
22.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Jeremy SingletonSimilar
Q4 11:04
3RD & 10
OWN 48
0
20.3%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q4 10:56
4TH & 10
OWN 48
0
19.6%
Dane Roy punt for 52 yds for a touchbackSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 24FG
7 plays · 65 yds · 1:5483% → 89%
Q4 10:50
1ST & 10
OWN 22
+17
17.0%
Shane Buechele pass complete to James Proche for 2 yds to the SMU 22 for a 1ST down HOUSTON Penalty, Horse Collar Tackle (15 Yards) to the SMU 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 10:05
1ST & 10
OWN 37
+46
15.3%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 46 yds to the Houst 17 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 9:55
1ST & 10
OPP 17
+1
12.9%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for 1 yd to the Houst 16Similar
Q4 9:30
2ND & 9
OPP 16
+1
12.6%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Houst 15Similar
Q4 9:00
3RD & 8
OPP 15
0
13.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James Proche, broken up by Deontay AndersonSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 8
OPP 15
+33
11.0%
Kevin Robledo 33 yd FG GOODSimilar
Q4 8:56
4TH & 8
OWN 35
-5
10.9%
SMU Penalty, Offensive Offside (-5 Yards) to the SMU 30Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 25INT
2 plays · -10 yds · 0:0013% → 13%
Q4 8:45
1ST & 10
OWN 33
-10
12.8%
HOUSTON Penalty, Offensive Holding (-10 Yards) to the Houst 23Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 26PUNT
9 plays · -3 yds · 3:1591% → 94%
Q4 8:14
1ST & 10
OPP 41
0
9.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:07
2ND & 10
OPP 41
0
9.0%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 8:02
3RD & 10
OPP 41
+10
9.2%
HOUSTON Penalty, Defensive Holding (10 Yards) to the Houst 31 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 7:35
1ST & 10
OPP 31
0
8.8%
Ke'Mon Freeman run for no gain to the Houst 31Similar
Q4 7:00
2ND & 10
OPP 31
+1
8.2%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the Houst 30Similar
Q4 6:35
3RD & 9
OPP 30
+1
8.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Rashee Rice for 1 yd to the Houst 29Similar
Q4 5:47
4TH & 8
OPP 29
-15
6.2%
Buechele, Shane pass complete to Proche, James for 27 yards to the HOUSTON2, PENALTY SMU pass interference (Proche, James) 15 yards to the HOUSTON44, NO PLAY.Similar
Q4 4:59
4TH & 23
OPP 44
0
5.8%
Trevor Denbow punt for 40 yds, downed at the Houst 4Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 27TD
1 play · 96 yds · 0:0036% → 36%
Q4 4:47
1ST & 10
OWN 4
+96
35.7%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 96 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune pass to Christian Trahan for Two-Point Conversion)Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 28PUNT
9 plays · 11 yds · 2:1771% → 75%
Q4 4:38
1ST & 10
OWN 13
+1
28.7%
Xavier Jones run for 1 yd to the SMU 14Similar
Q4 4:00
2ND & 9
OWN 14
+2
27.6%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Xavier Jones for 2 yds to the SMU 16Similar
Q4 3:40
3RD & 7
OWN 16
+8
28.2%
Shane Buechele pass complete to Kylen Granson for 8 yds to the SMU 24 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 3:00
1ST & 10
OWN 24
0
23.8%
Xavier Jones run for no gain to the SMU 24Similar
Q4 2:35
2ND & 10
OWN 24
0
22.3%
Shane Buechele pass incomplete to James ProcheSimilar
Q4 2:30
3RD & 10
OWN 24
0
23.3%
Shane Buechele pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 2:21
4TH & 10
OWN 24
0
24.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 52 yds, punt out-of-bounds at the Houst 24Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 29DOWNS
5 plays · 21 yds · 0:4232% → 30%
Q4 2:10
1ST & 10
OWN 24
+15
31.6%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 15 yds to the Houst 39 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 1:55
1ST & 10
OWN 39
+6
31.0%
Mulbah Car run for 6 yds to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 1:36
2ND & 4
OWN 45
0
33.7%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Courtney LarkSimilar
Q4 1:32
3RD & 4
OWN 45
0
32.8%
Clayton Tune pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 1:28
4TH & 4
OWN 45
0
29.8%
Clayton Tune pass incomplete to Marquez Stevenson, broken up by Rodney ClemonsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
SMUDrive 30PUNT
7 plays · 0 yds · 1:0590% → 94%
Q4 1:25
1ST & 10
OPP 45
+4
10.1%
Xavier Jones run for 4 yds to the Houst 41Similar
Q4 1:22
2ND & 6
OPP 41
-1
9.4%
Xavier Jones run for a loss of 1 yard to the Houst 42Similar
Q4 1:15
3RD & 7
OPP 42
+2
9.5%
Shane Buechele run for 2 yds to the Houst 40Similar
Q4 0:25
4TH & 5
OPP 40
-5
5.8%
SMU Penalty, Delay of Game (-5 Yards) to the Houst 45Similar
Q4 0:20
4TH & 10
OPP 45
0
5.9%
Trevor Denbow punt for 30 yds, fair catch by Marquez Stevenson at the Houst 15Similar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
HOUDrive 31END OF GAME
6 plays · 36 yds · 0:1814% → 17%
Q4 0:18
1ST & 10
OWN 15
+22
14.4%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Tre'von Bradley for 22 yds to the Houst 37 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:15
1ST & 10
OWN 37
0
15.4%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:10
2ND & 10
OWN 37
+18
15.2%
Clayton Tune pass complete to Jeremy Singleton for 18 yds to the SMU 45 for a 1ST downSimilar
Q4 0:05
1ST & 10
OPP 45
0
18.6%
TEAM pass incompleteSimilar
Q4 0:00
2ND & 10
OPP 45
-4
17.4%
Clayton Tune sacked by Demerick Gary for a loss of 4 yards to the SMU 49 Clayton Tune fumbled, recovered by Houst Mulbah Car , return for 0 yardsSimilar
own 0own 2550opp 25opp 0
Biggest swings
TD · Q4 4:47
Clayton Tune pass complete to Marquez Stevenson for 96 yds for a TD, (Clayton Tune pass to Christian Trahan for Two-Point Conversion)
+30
End of Game · Final
Game over.
-17.4
TD · Q3 14:13
Xavier Jones run for 2 yds for a TD, (Kevin Robledo KICK)
-9.9
YardLine · model v10Model estimate - not betting advice · Data provided by CollegeFootballData.com